Tag: California

Obama beat McCain 61%-37% in California, performing 7% better than Kerry in his 54%-44% win over Bush. Here are the county-by-county percentages for Kerry and Obama and the difference between those percentages. Counties that flipped from Bush to Obama are bolded.

County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff
Alameda	75.2%	78.8%	3.6%		Kings	33.8%	42.1%	8.3%		Placer	36.3%	43.4%	7.1%		Shasta	31.4%	36.0%	4.6%
Alpine	53.3%	61.0%	7.7%		Lake	53.2%	58.2%	5.0%		Plumas	36.9%	42.8%	5.9%		Sierra	33.2%	37.4%	4.2%
Amador	36.6%	41.6%	5.0%		Lassen	27.6%	31.5%	3.9%		Riverside	41.1%	50.3%	9.2%		Siskiyou	37.8%	43.3%	5.5%
Butte	44.2%	49.9%	5.7%		Los Angeles	63.2%	69.2%	6.0%		Sacramento	49.6%	58.5%	8.9%		Solano	57.2%	63.5%	6.3%
Calaveras	37.1%	42.2%	5.1%		Madera	34.8%	42.4%	7.6%		San Benito	52.7%	60.5%	7.8%		Sonoma	67.2%	73.7%	6.5%
Colusa	31.6%	40.0%	8.4%		Marin	73.3%	78.0%	4.7%		San Bernardino	43.6%	52.1%	8.5%		Stanislaus	40.4%	49.9%	9.5%
Contra Costa	62.3%	68.0%	5.7%		Mariposa	37.6%	42.5%	4.9%		San Diego	46.4%	54.2%	7.8%		Sutter	31.9%	40.8%	8.9%
Del Norte	41.4%	45.4%	4.0%		Mendocino	63.5%	69.6%	6.1%		San Francisco	83.1%	84.2%	1.1%		Tehama	32.1%	36.7%	4.6%
El Dorado	37.4%	43.7%	6.3%		Merced	42.3%	53.4%	11.1%		San Joaquin	45.9%	54.5%	8.6%		Trinity	42.8%	50.8%	8.0%
Fresno	41.7%	50.3%	8.6%		Modoc	25.8%	29.8%	4.0%		San Luis Obispo	45.6%	51.4%	5.8%		Tulare	32.9%	41.5%	8.6%
Glenn	31.7%	37.8%	6.1%		Mono	49.3%	55.6%	6.3%		San Mateo	69.5%	73.5%	4.0%		Tuolumne	38.6%	42.5%	3.9%
Humboldt	57.7%	62.3%	4.6%		Monterey	60.4%	68.2%	7.8%		Santa Barbara	53.2%	60.4%	7.2%		Ventura	47.6%	55.3%	7.7%
Imperial	52.5%	62.3%	9.8%		Napa	59.5%	65.2%	5.7%		Santa Clara	64.0%	69.5%	5.5%		Yolo	59.4%	67.1%	7.7%
Inyo	38.9%	43.9%	5.0%		Nevada	45.0%	51.5%	6.5%		Santa Cruz	73.0%	77.5%	4.5%		Yuba	31.6%	41.5%	9.9%
Kern	32.6%	40.2%	7.6%		Orange	39.0%	47.7%	8.7%

As you can see, a lot of the counties that showed the most improvement from 2004, including a lot of those that flipped, are in the areas of the state that experienced the fastest growth this decade. This is good news for us heading into the 2010 elections, because a lot of congressional and state legislative seats in these areas are ripe for the picking. This is also good news for redistricting, as the rapid growth of Democratic numbers gives the Democrats more room overall and allows for further gains by them.

You can also see that the counties in the multi-county Democratic stronghold of the Bay Area showed smaller Democratic growth numbers. This does not exactly mean that the region is trending Republican; rather, it has just pretty much maxed out its Democratic numbers. So just relying on our old strongholds in the Bay Area and L.A. County only takes us so far, and I am pleased to see the improvements in the fast-growing counties, which allow us to expand our playing field greatly.

Check below the flip for the juicy details on the numbers by districts.

The districts are colored by the party of their current occupants. Republican-held districts that voted for Obama are bolded.

Congressional District

District	Kerry	Obama	Diff		District	Kerry	Obama	Diff		District	Kerry	Obama	Diff		District	Kerry	Obama	Diff
CA-01	59.7%	65.6%	5.9%		CA-15	62.9%	68.4%	5.5%		CA-28	71.0%	76.2%	5.2%		CA-41	36.9%	43.7%	6.8%
CA-02	36.6%	42.7%	6.1%		CA-16	63.4%	69.6%	6.2%		CA-29	61.2%	67.6%	6.4%		CA-42	36.9%	44.9%	8.1%
CA-03	40.8%	49.2%	8.4%		CA-17	65.6%	72.1%	6.5%		CA-30	66.1%	70.4%	4.3%		CA-43	58.1%	68.0%	9.9%
CA-04	37.4%	43.9%	6.5%		CA-18	49.3%	59.2%	9.9%		CA-31	76.9%	79.9%	3.0%		CA-44	39.9%	49.5%	9.6%
CA-05	61.1%	69.5%	8.4%		CA-19	37.9%	46.0%	8.1%		CA-32	62.3%	68.2%	5.9%		CA-45	43.1%	51.5%	8.4%
CA-06	70.3%	76.0%	5.7%		CA-20	50.6%	59.6%	9.0%		CA-33	82.8%	86.8%	4.0%		CA-46	41.6%	47.9%	6.3%
CA-07	67.1%	71.7%	4.6%		CA-21	33.7%	42.1%	8.4%		CA-34	68.8%	74.7%	5.9%		CA-47	48.6%	60.1%	11.5%
CA-08	84.2%	85.4%	1.2%		CA-22	31.0%	38.3%	7.3%		CA-35	79.0%	84.4%	5.4%		CA-48	40.4%	49.3%	8.9%
CA-09	85.9%	88.1%	2.2%		CA-23	58.3%	65.5%	7.2%		CA-36	59.0%	64.4%	5.4%		CA-49	36.5%	45.1%	8.6%
CA-10	58.5%	64.9%	6.4%		CA-24	43.1%	50.5%	7.4%		CA-37	73.5%	79.6%	6.1%		CA-50	43.9%	51.3%	7.4%
CA-11	45.3%	53.8%	8.5%		CA-25	39.9%	49.4%	9.5%		CA-38	65.3%	71.3%	6.0%		CA-51	53.4%	63.1%	9.7%
CA-12	71.5%	74.3%	2.8%		CA-26	43.7%	51.0%	7.3%		CA-39	58.5%	65.5%	7.0%		CA-52	37.7%	45.0%	7.3%
CA-13	70.9%	74.4%	3.5%		CA-27	59.3%	66.1%	6.8%		CA-40	38.4%	46.6%	8.2%		CA-53	61.2%	68.2%	7.0%
CA-14	68.3%	73.0%	4.7%

Board of Equalization

District	Kerry	Obama	Diff
BOE-1	67.2%	72.1%	4.9%
BOE-2	42.7%	50.9%	8.2%
BOE-3	42.4%	50.6%	8.2%
BOE-4	65.6%	71.5%	5.9%

State Senate

County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff
SD-01	38.6%	45.8%	7.2%		SD-11	68.3%	73.3%	5.0%		SD-21	63.2%	69.2%	6.0%		SD-31	41.6%	49.7%	8.1%
SD-02	63.3%	68.7%	5.4%		SD-12	47.7%	57.9%	10.2%		SD-22	74.1%	78.3%	4.2%		SD-32	58.9%	68.4%	9.5%
SD-03	77.8%	81.6%	3.8%		SD-13	67.4%	72.2%	4.8%		SD-23	65.0%	70.0%	5.0%		SD-33	36.3%	45.2%	8.9%
SD-04	36.9%	43.0%	6.1%		SD-14	34.8%	42.5%	7.7%		SD-24	64.4%	69.6%	5.2%		SD-34	46.6%	57.3%	10.7%
SD-05	53.7%	62.3%	8.6%		SD-15	52.5%	59.1%	6.6%		SD-25	72.3%	78.7%	6.4%		SD-35	40.3%	47.9%	7.6%
SD-06	55.6%	64.3%	8.7%		SD-16	49.5%	58.9%	9.4%		SD-26	81.6%	85.8%	4.2%		SD-36	34.5%	42.1%	7.6%
SD-07	60.9%	66.7%	5.8%		SD-17	39.9%	48.7%	8.8%		SD-27	59.5%	66.1%	6.6%		SD-37	41.2%	50.3%	9.1%
SD-08	73.9%	75.8%	1.9%		SD-18	30.2%	37.5%	7.3%		SD-28	61.6%	67.2%	5.6%		SD-38	40.3%	48.3%	8.0%
SD-09	81.1%	84.0%	2.9%		SD-19	48.4%	55.6%	7.2%		SD-29	41.8%	48.9%	7.1%		SD-39	57.6%	64.8%	7.2%
SD-10	67.3%	71.4%	4.1%		SD-20	65.4%	72.5%	7.1%		SD-30	62.3%	68.7%	6.4%		SD-40	52.9%	62.1%	9.2%

State Assembly

County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff
AD-01	60.1%	65.5%	5.4%		AD-21	66.6%	72.0%	5.4%		AD-41	62.3%	67.8%	5.5%		AD-61	54.4%	63.2%	8.8%
AD-02	32.3%	38.0%	5.7%		AD-22	67.3%	72.1%	4.8%		AD-42	72.0%	75.5%	3.5%		AD-62	61.8%	71.3%	9.5%
AD-03	41.8%	48.0%	6.2%		AD-23	66.2%	71.5%	5.3%		AD-43	63.9%	70.3%	6.4%		AD-63	42.6%	51.1%	8.5%
AD-04	38.1%	45.2%	7.1%		AD-24	62.1%	68.0%	5.9%		AD-44	60.8%	67.2%	6.4%		AD-64	41.2%	50.0%	8.8%
AD-05	42.3%	51.1%	8.8%		AD-25	38.0%	44.9%	6.9%		AD-45	78.5%	80.6%	2.1%		AD-65	39.0%	47.0%	8.0%
AD-06	71.0%	76.2%	5.2%		AD-26	41.8%	50.7%	8.9%		AD-46	80.6%	83.9%	3.3%		AD-66	34.4%	43.7%	9.3%
AD-07	65.1%	70.7%	5.6%		AD-27	66.7%	71.8%	5.1%		AD-47	80.7%	85.3%	4.6%		AD-67	39.6%	46.1%	6.5%
AD-08	55.6%	63.3%	7.7%		AD-28	59.8%	68.3%	8.5%		AD-48	86.0%	89.1%	3.1%		AD-68	38.4%	47.4%	9.0%
AD-09	66.0%	73.4%	7.4%		AD-29	36.3%	44.4%	8.1%		AD-49	61.2%	65.3%	4.1%		AD-69	52.7%	64.4%	11.7%
AD-10	42.5%	51.1%	8.6%		AD-30	42.2%	51.1%	8.9%		AD-50	70.6%	76.9%	6.3%		AD-70	42.0%	50.9%	8.9%
AD-11	64.3%	69.7%	5.4%		AD-31	52.8%	62.2%	9.4%		AD-51	75.5%	81.4%	5.9%		AD-71	34.4%	44.6%	10.2%
AD-12	79.1%	79.0%	-0.1%		AD-32	28.7%	35.8%	7.1%		AD-52	86.1%	90.8%	4.7%		AD-72	38.3%	47.3%	9.0%
AD-13	85.6%	87.5%	1.9%		AD-33	43.1%	49.5%	6.4%		AD-53	56.9%	62.4%	5.5%		AD-73	38.5%	46.5%	8.0%
AD-14	80.6%	83.8%	3.2%		AD-34	32.6%	40.6%	8.0%		AD-54	56.6%	61.9%	5.3%		AD-74	42.4%	50.2%	7.8%
AD-15	49.6%	57.6%	8.0%		AD-35	59.7%	66.9%	7.2%		AD-55	63.0%	69.4%	6.4%		AD-75	43.2%	51.3%	8.1%
AD-16	85.6%	87.9%	2.3%		AD-36	38.4%	49.3%	10.9%		AD-56	55.1%	62.1%	7.0%		AD-76	59.6%	66.2%	6.6%
AD-17	49.7%	59.5%	9.8%		AD-37	43.8%	51.0%	7.2%		AD-57	58.8%	66.2%	7.4%		AD-77	35.8%	42.7%	6.9%
AD-18	69.7%	73.8%	4.1%		AD-38	43.6%	51.4%	7.8%		AD-58	60.8%	66.4%	5.6%		AD-78	51.2%	60.2%	9.0%
AD-19	69.3%	72.9%	3.6%		AD-39	69.9%	76.4%	6.5%		AD-59	39.6%	46.6%	7.0%		AD-79	56.0%	65.0%	9.0%
AD-20	65.9%	70.3%	4.4%		AD-40	60.3%	66.9%	6.6%		AD-60	38.4%	45.8%	7.4%		AD-80	51.6%	59.6%	8.0%

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. With the district results that I found (Senate here and Assembly here), I put in a new column, showing the margin of the 2008 presidential winner in each district, so we can clearly see what our biggest targets are.

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.07%	44.12%	R+11.05	M+12.80
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.46%	33.14%	D+14.32	O+17.64
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.93%	47.63%	R+15.70	M+15.00
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.96%	46.07%	R+17.11	M+14.16

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.67%	33.14%	D+16.53	O+21.35
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.98%	14.77%	D+44.21	O+58.53
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.62%	21.16%	D+32.46	O+41.34
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.68%	34.05%	D+8.63	O+16.81
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.50%	29.66%	D+15.84	O+26.64

Assembly numbers are over the flip…

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.83%	40.20%	R+5.37	M+1.60
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.94%	38.83%	R+0.89	O+4.24
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.84%	42.32%	R+5.48	M+7.90
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.03%	39.27%	D+2.76	O+4.11
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.45%	36.56%	D+9.89	O+4.39
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.86%	40.69%	R+4.83	O+1.39
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.55%	38.72%	D+0.83	O+0.66
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.84%	41.46%	R+5.62	O+3.73
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.84%	40.05%	R+3.21	O+4.86
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.85%	40.44%	R+2.59	O+4.09
AD-64	Brian Nestande	36.26%	41.61%	R+5.35	O+1.79
AD-65	Paul Cook	37.14%	41.06%	R+3.92	M+4.12
AD-68	Van Tran	32.72%	41.61%	R+8.89	M+2.95
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.12%	43.73%	R+13.61	O+3.93
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.88%	41.62%	R+10.74	O+2.16
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.74%	39.81%	R+9.07	O+4.05

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.84%	23.73%	D+29.11	O+43.31
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.63%	18.74%	D+37.89	O+49.15
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.32%	39.43%	R+0.11	O+3.91
AD-11	Tom Torlakson	54.24%	22.10%	D+32.14	O+40.90
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.59%	36.14%	D+4.45	O+16.55
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.62%	20.19%	D+18.43	O+42.28
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.13%	26.81%	D+20.32	O+45.90
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.36%	18.97%	D+32.39	O+44.45
AD-31	Juan Arambula	49.04%	33.92%	D+15.12	O+24.81
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.21%	27.95%	D+20.26	O+35.46
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.95%	11.28%	D+53.67	O+71.90
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.91%	16.23%	D+45.68	O+55.86
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.92%	26.76%	D+15.16	O+34.34
AD-78	Martin Block	43.01%	31.51%	D+11.50	O+11.82
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.25%	36.62%	D+8.63	O+20.68

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65 (There are no open seats in these districts.)

(IV) Other open seats: 25, 68

Cross-posted at Calitics.

Here is my analysis of the 2008 election in my home state of California. As I mentioned in my 50-state analysis, California was a mixed bag on November 4, 2008. The presidential results were anything but disappointing, while we came up short further down the ballot, from the House races to the state legislature and the 12 ballot measures.

I was amazed as I saw polls leading up to Election Day showing Obama up by more than 20 over McCain, and was astonished at the 61-37 Obama blowout that ended up occurring on Election Night (and the calling of the whole Left Coast for Obama, putting him over 270 electoral votes and making him the winner!). I couldn’t wait to check out the county results and see which ones flipped for Obama and which ones were close.

As the final absentee ballots rolled in, I was able to check out the numbers, and see that Obama way outperformed Kerry, winning by 3 million votes and pumping up his national popular vote numbers very nicely. In fact, Obama outperformed every single Democratic presidential candidate except one, scoring the second-best Democratic presidential performance in California’s history after Franklin Roosevelt in 1936. As you can see, Obama gained 1.5 million votes over Kerry, while McCain, who claimed he could compete in California, lost half a million votes from Bush.

2008: Obama 8,274,473; McCain 5,011,781

2004: Kerry 6,745,485; Bush 5,509,826

Looking through the voting histories of the California counties that went to Obama, I found that Obama broke some longtime Republican streaks in quite a few counties. Obama won a majority of the vote in two counties that last voted Democratic presidentially with more than 50% of the vote in 1976, Merced and Trinity.

Most significant are the six counties that in 2008 voted Democratic presidentially with more than 50% for the first time since 1964: Nevada, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Ventura

And finally, San Diego County, which last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate with a majority of the vote in 1944, also delivered a majority of the vote to Obama!

Obama also came close to winning majorities, instead winning close pluralities, in Butte, Fresno, and Stanislaus Counties. The last Democrat to win a majority in Butte and Fresno was Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and the last Democrat to win a majority in Stanislaus was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Now I will do a tour of the state, north to south. I will give a bit of an overall summary of California’s counties: Obama improved upon Kerry’s performance in all 58 of them. The amount of improvement varies from region to region, and the numbers are over the flip.

North Coast

Counties = Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma

Combined population = 800,932

2004 = Kerry 63%, Bush 34% (D+29)

2008 = Obama 69%, McCain 28% (D+41)

Obama improved considerably over Kerry’s margins in this part of the state, growing Democratic margins in Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, and Sonoma, while cutting McCain’s margin in Del Norte County to half of Bush’s. These growing Democratic numbers in this formerly swingy region (CA-01 changed parties 4 times in the 1990s alone) suggests this region will continue to trend Democratic for the foreseeable future.

Northern Mountain

Counties = Butte, El Dorado, Lassen, Modoc, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Tehama, Trinity

Combined population = 1,205,952

2004 = Bush 61%, Kerry 38% (R+23)

2008 = McCain 54%, Obama 44% (R+10)

Our next stop is this sprawling, low-density region. I figured McCain would crush Obama in this small town-heavy region, even overperforming Bush’s numbers. When I examined the counties in this region, all of which went for Bush in 2004, I was shocked. Not only did McCain underperform Bush here, he actually got FEWER votes than Bush did. Obama even won 3 counties outright: Butte, Nevada, and Trinity. This region will likely continue to be considerably Republican, but Democrats can become more competitive here if they grow their margins in Butte County (home of UC Chico) and the Tahoe region. Some of this area, most notably Placer, is becoming more like suburban Sacramento and may also continue to trend Democratic. These numbers show that we can win here, and if we can find more Charlie Browns, we might be able to pull off wins in this region, namely Congressional District 4 (which will very likely be open in 2010 when McClintock runs for governor) and Senate District 4 (which will be open in 2010 due to term limits). A couple of Assembly seats here will be open in 2010 as well. Let’s jump-start that 58-county strategy!

San Francisco Bay Area

Counties = Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano

Combined population = 6,791,908

2004 = Kerry 69%, Bush 29% (D+40)

2008 = Obama 74%, McCain 24% (D+50)

A very blue region in a very blue state just keeps on getting bluer with each election. Republicans will be extremely lucky if they can get even a third of the vote here again! In addition to overwhelming Democratic numbers, every single Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly district is in Democratic hands, almost parallel to the shutout Republicans suffered on the House level in New England. Only if the Republicans return to being the party of Earl Warren and Hiram Johnson will they have a prayer of winning here again. The funny thing is that this region used to be a very Republican region in a very Republican state back in the early 20th century, and San Mateo County was the origin of powerful Republican governor Hiram Johnson and the Progressive movement in California, which Republicans of that time embraced. The region shifted strongly to the Democrats in the 1950s, with 1956 being the last time San Francisco and Alameda Counties voted Republican presidentially, and has not looked back since.

Sacramento Valley

Counties = Amador, Calaveras, Colusa, Glenn, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Sutter, Yolo, Yuba

Combined population = 2,606,646

2004 = Bush 51%, Kerry 48% (R+3)

2008 = Obama 56%, McCain 42% (D+14)

This is a swing area, with Democratic strongholds in the city of Sacramento and Yolo County, home of UC Davis, and Republican strongholds in the Sacramento suburbs (though their majorities here are getting smaller and smaller by the year), and Amador, Calaveras, Colusa, Glenn, Sutter, and Yuba Counties. San Joaquin County, the second-biggest county in the region, has been a Republican-leaning county in recent history until the influx of people from the Bay Area and the overall Democratic trend of suburbs near the Bay Area, culminating in a double-digit win for Obama in the county and the region. This region is also trending Democratic on the congressional and state legislature level, giving victories to Democratic Congressman Jerry McNerney, and Democratic Assemblywomen Alyson Huber and Joan Buchanan.

Eastern Mountain/Yosemite

Counties = Alpine, Inyo, Mariposa, Mono, Tuolumne

Combined population = 108,338

2004 = Bush 58%, Kerry 40% (R+18)

2008 = McCain 53%, Obama 44% (R+9)

Like the northern mountain region, McCain got fewer votes here than Bush did and Democrats saw a modest improvement from 2004 here. The 2 Democratic counties, Alpine and Mono, used to be two of the strongest Republican counties, even voting for Bush in 2000, but an influx of young people from the San Francisco area to work on the ski resorts shifted these counties to Kerry and even more for Obama. If we can get a similar trend in the other counties, then this region too may become Democratic before long.

Central Coast

Counties = Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, Ventura

Combined population = 2,275,917

2004 = Kerry 54%, Bush 45% (D+9)

2008 = Obama 60%, McCain 37% (D+23)

This region was normally divided in half, with the northern half of the region (Monterey, San Benito, Santa Cruz) leaning strongly Democratic and the southern half (San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura) leaning Republican aside from the Democratic stronghold of Santa Barbara. Now that barrier has been shattered, with all 6 counties (yes, including San Luis Obispo!) going for Obama. This provides us with great opportunities to expand our majority in the upcoming State Assembly elections in 2010 and the State Senate elections in 2012. You will also notice that this region is generally the bellwether region for determining how California will go in statewide/presidential elections. Not surprisingly, the bellwether county of San Benito is also in this region.

San Joaquin Valley

Counties = Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, Tulare

Combined population = 3,270,343

2004 = Bush 62%, Kerry 37% (R+25)

2008 = McCain 52%, Obama 46% (R+6)

Here is another Republican stronghold, though unlike the mountain regions, this one is more populous, with population centers in Fresno and Bakersfield. Every county here was Republican in 2004, and then Obama punched holes in the Republican firewall, winning Merced and Stanislaus Counties, as well as the big prize of Fresno County. We still have work to do here on the state level though, since we lost the 30th Assembly district last year. Though maybe with that Yacht Dog Nicole Parra gone and the Democratic trend here, we may have a chance to regain that district in 2010.

Southland

Counties = Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego

Combined population = 20,951,621

2004 = Kerry 52%, Bush 46% (D+5)

2008 = Obama 59%, McCain 38% (D+21)

And finally, our tour ends in the Southland, the most populous region in the state, which alone holds more than half of the state’s population in a mere 6 counties and is home to the state’s 2 largest cities, L.A. and San Diego, and the state’s 3 most populous counties (L.A., Orange, and San Diego). As recently as 2004, L.A. and Imperial Counties were the only Democratic counties in the region. Obama changed that, blowing even more holes in Republican strongholds, turning 3 more counties blue with majorities in Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego, and falling just two points short in Orange County, nearly staging a complete sweep in this former Republican stronghold. That spells trouble for certain Republican Congressmen/women, as well as State Senators and Assemblymembers, some of which are term-limited in 2010 and/or scored weak wins in 2008. Probably the most exciting part of California to watch in the 2010 elections will be right here in the Southland. My hometown of Rancho Cucamonga in San Bernardino County went for Obama. I can only hope it and many more cities in the region continue to trend to the good guys! If the Democrats have a lockhold on the population centers in Northern and Southern California, then there will be ZERO chance of Republicans winning this big prize again!

Whew! Now that I’ve finished the marathon tour of my big, beautiful home state, I can give the region-by-region breakdown of Democratic improvements from 2004 to 2008, ranked from the smallest shift to the largest shift. Here they are:

Eastern Mountain/Yosemite: 9%

San Francisco Bay Area: 10%

North Coast: 12%

Northern Mountain: 13%

Central Coast: 14%

Southland: 16%

Sacramento Valley: 17%

San Joaquin Valley: 19%

Every region shifted considerably more Democratic, though the biggest shifts occurred in the regions that up through 2004 were swing or Republican-leaning areas. These are the areas we need to target heavily to make the biggest gains.

With some legislative seats open in 2010 due to term limits, we can take some of them and further inflate our Democratic majority in this state. If the California Democratic Party, with the new fresh faces of Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) and Assembly Speaker Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) actually invests in the legislative races, we can make major gains and have no more disappointments that we had in 2008’s U.S. House and legislative races, where Democrats, especially in swing districts in Southern California, underperformed Obama. Also, with enough investment, we will hopefully also have no more disappointments in the ballot measures such as Prop H8. And a suggestion I have for reforming our dysfunctional ballot measure system is to not have any repeat ballot measures such as Prop 73 (2005)/85 (2006)/4 (2008) and also require a supermajority (say 60%) on passing some measures. And of course we need major reforms in the legislative system, such as doing away with the ridiculous 2/3 rule for taxes and budgets.

It is never too early to look ahead to the next election, and I am doing that with my handy dandy registration tables for the State Senate and State Assembly districts with term-limited and possibly vulnerable incumbents (in italics). Without further Apu, here are the numbers.

Cross-posted at Calitics, Democracy for California, and my blog.

And I might as well use this diary to promote my new 2010 California Race Tracker website. Anyone is free to join in and contribute information that will be useful for us going into the 2010 elections.

SENATE

8 incumbents are term-limited in 2010, 4 Republicans and 4 Democrats. I am also watching Lou Correa in the 34th district due to his razor-thin win in 2006 after recounts. The 12th district has the best chance of flipping to us, though if we work very hard in the 4th, like Charlie Brown in CA-04, we may have a chance here too.

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.07%	44.18%	R+11.11
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.33%	33.41%	D+13.92
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.81%	47.82%	R+16.01
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.88%	46.37%	R+17.49

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.60%	33.39%	D+16.21
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.88%	14.97%	D+43.91
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.40%	21.44%	D+31.96
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.53%	34.35%	D+8.18
SD-40	Denise Moreno Ducheny	46.25%	30.12%	D+16.13

ASSEMBLY

17 Assemblymembers are term-limited in 2010, 6 Republicans and 11 Democrats. I am also including the 6 new freshmen (2 GOP, 4 DEM) that were elected by close margins, and 6 reelected Assemblymembers (all GOP) that won by close margins (though Nestande in the 64th was unopposed, the GOP registration advantage is small). The numbers are over the flip.

Republicans (14)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.82%	40.26%	R+5.44
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.77%	39.00%	R+1.23
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.88%	42.39%	R+5.51
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	41.90%	39.59%	D+2.31
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.48%	36.67%	D+9.81
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.93%	40.74%	R+4.81
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.20%	39.25%	R+0.05
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.76%	41.71%	R+5.95
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.65%	40.41%	R+3.76
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.69%	40.80%	R+3.11
AD-64	Brian Nestande	36.04%	42.02%	R+5.98
AD-65	Paul Cook	36.93%	41.47%	R+4.54
AD-68	Van Tran	32.63%	41.90%	R+9.27
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.05%	43.99%	R+13.94

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.72%	24.00%	D+28.72
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.53%	18.92%	D+37.61
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.18%	39.61%	R+0.43
AD-11	Tom Torlakson	53.81%	22.54%	D+31.27
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.41%	36.45%	D+3.96
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.53%	20.37%	D+18.16
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.17%	26.91%	D+20.26
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.42%	19.18%	D+32.24
AD-31	Juan Arambula	48.90%	34.28%	D+14.62
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.05%	28.19%	D+19.86
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.96%	11.36%	D+53.60
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.62%	16.59%	D+45.03
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.92%	27.01%	D+14.91
AD-78	Martin Block	42.86%	31.89%	D+10.97
AD-80	Manuel Perez	44.99%	37.17%	D+7.82

Since it’s never too early to prepare for the next election, we should get started on targeting vulnerable districts right away. The 26th and 30th were close heartbreakers for us, but hopefully with more support from the CDP and national Dems, we can take them back.

The 37th was another close race, but fortunately Audra Strickland is term-limited out, so we have a better chance at a pickup here, and can strengthen our presence in this part of the state and hopefully take down Audra’s husband Tony in 2012. (I know the districts will have new configurations in 2012, and I intend to map out redistricting possibilities for the next decade later.)

Other areas ripe for the picking include CA-33 on the Central Coast, and CA-63 in my home turf in the Inland Empire. My normally Republican-leaning hometown of Rancho Cucamonga is in the 63rd Assembly District and voted for Obama this year, so we have a real chance of making big gains in this part of the Southland. I can’t wait for 2010!

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O Democrats)

This year has been quite transformative for The West, especially The Southwest. Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico have gone from Red to Blue. Utah and Arizona don’t look quite as Red as they used to. Oh yes, and California now looks bluer than ever before.

But will this last? Will The Southwest continue to trend blue? And can Democrats continue to make gains here?

Honestly, I think so. Why? First off, demographics are shifting our way. Latinos continue to grow in population and political influence. “Creative Class” professionals continue to breathe new life into the region’s urban areas. The area has changed, and the changes favor us.

And because the demographics of The Southwest has changed, so has the politics. The old “rugged individualism” and “libertarian conservatism” that used to define the region’s politics have faded away as these formerly rural states are becoming much more urban and suburban. After all, why would young parents in Henderson, NV, worry about whether or not they can own assault rifles when they have to make plans for their kids’ college education, keep their kids safe from dangerous air and water pollutions, and be able to afford a home and food and health care? Why would a couple of biotech researchers in Aurora, CO, feel threatened by public park land in the state when they’re worried about keeping their jobs?

See where I’m going? The West has changed. I know. I’ve witnessed how my native Orange County, CA, has changed from “John Birch Society” embarrassment to dynamic urban environment. I’ve seen firsthand how Las Vegas has transformed from small casino town to world-class destination. I’ve been amazed by how the entire region has changed, and how we all saw this on full display as Democrats won across the board here.

So what should we do next? Let’s first talk about Nevada. Barack Obama won here by 12% (vs. a 2% Bush win in 2004), Democrat Dina Titus defeated GOP incumbent Jon Porter for Congress in NV-03, and Democrats now control both houses of the state legislature. So what next? We keep Majority Leader Harry Reid in the Senate and put a good Democrat in the Governor’s seat to replace the disgraced GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons, as both are quite doable. I’d now peg the Senate race as “Leans Democratic” and the Governor’s race as “Toss-up”. Oh yes, and we’d be wise to take advantage of Obama’s possible 2012 coattails here by finding a legitimate challenger to GOP Senator John Ensign.

Colorado was also good to us this year, as Obama won by 9% (vs. a 5% Bush win in 2004), Mark Udall won a formerly GOP Senate seat, and Betsy Markey unseated GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in CO-04. So what can we do now? I’d peg incumbent Senator Ken Salazar’s 2010 race as “Likely Democratic” now, but we should keep a close watch to make sure we win again. And of course, we’ll need to make sure Obama wins again in 2012.

But what about California? Obama won here by a whopping 24% (vs. a 10% Kerry win in 2004) and Democrats already have both Senate seats & 33 of 53 House seats. What more can we have? How about the Governor’s seat, which I already consider “Leans Democratic” as the GOP has no strong candidate to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger? And how about winning the “Toss-up” House races in CA-03, CA-04, and CA-44 in 2010, where we came so close this year? Same goes for the “Leans Republican” races in CA-46 and CA-50?

And what about Arizona? McCain won his home state by 9% (vs. an 11% Bush win in 2004), but Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick still managed to win a formerly GOP seat in AZ-01. So is there still potential here? I think so. Without the McCain win here in 2012. And better yet, we can beat McCain in 2010, as well as fellow GOP Senator Jon Kyl in 2012, with the right candidates. Same goes with the 2010 Governor’s race, which can be a “Toss-up” if we can have a quality candidate run against newly minted GOP Governor Jan Brewer.

So where do we go from here out West? We win! Ready to win?

(Cross-posted at C4O Democrats)

It wasn’t that long ago when I was just crying in my bedroom, not knowing what I could do next. Prop 8 had passed in California, and it felt like I was completely stripped of my human rights. Why did everything go so wrong when it seemed like the worst had just ended with Barack Obama’s victory?

But in the next few days, hope returned. Lawsuits were filed to protect people’s rights. People soon took to the streets to protest the temporary “win” for hate. And most importantly, a new civil rights movement was born as people began organizing to show the state, the nation, and the world that love conquers all.

So how has a temporary defeat resulted in a sudden push for victory?

In the months before the November 4 election, the “old school” LGBT political organizations (like Human Rights Campaign and The Task Force) and a HUGE group of elite “old school” West Coast political consultants decided to run a top-down, cautious campaign to defeat Prop 8. There was little mention of the married couples about to lose their legal rights. There were no feet on the ground organized by the campaign to talk to neighbors in the community about the threat to everyone’s civil rights posed by Prop 8. There were just a 12-page long phone bank script and rounds of TV ads trying to respond to the constant barrage of lies pounding the airwaves. That was a recipe for disaster.

Fortunately in the days following the disappointing election day results, something changed. Everyday people rose up to fight for their rights. Suddenly, an angry (but peaceful) uprising was transforming into a full-fledged movement. And then, it spread beyond California. It became a national uprising for equal rights.

And really, this is why I now feel a calm sense of reassuring hope. Now don’t get me wrong, I refuse to become overconfident in expecting the California Supreme Court to overturn Prop 8 and/or a successful repeal campaign in 2010 and 2012. Rather, I am glad that so many of us have now realized that we are working to make victory happen.

I was once told by a New Age influenced family member that “you create your own reality”. At first, I scoffed it off. But now, I know what she meant. We create our own reality by taking action, joining the impact, making it happen. We have the power now to make our case to the court, convince the voters, overturn Prop 8, and guarantee civil rights for all.

The power is ours. The time is now. What can we do in the coming days, weeks, and months ahead to end hateful discrimination and let love prevail?

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

This week has been nothing short of amazing! Barack Obama will be our next President. More and better Democrats will be going to Congress. The electoral map has undergone a major blue shift.

So why has this whole experience been bittersweet at best for me? Well, all is not well in my own home state. So what can we celebrate and what must we fix? Let me share with you the story of this election from behind the scenes.

First off, let’s start with the bad news. We lost in California. But wait, you ask, didn’t Obama win by about 24%? Isn’t that good? Of course it is, and that isn’t the problem.

The problem in California is that Barack Obama had hardly any coattails here. Look at how Prop 8, the marriage ban, may end up having to be stopped at the courts (again, hopefully). Look at how, barring the results in CA-44 & CA-04 changing in the provisional vote count, we have not gained any new Congressional seats. Look at how we’re still short of a 2/3 supermajority in both houses of the state legislature.

Simply put, we failed our mission in The Golden State. There were hundreds of thousands of “undervotes” here, meaning that people voted Obama for President but did NOT continue downballot to vote on Congress, the initiatives, and local races. This is nothing short of tragic, and there’s no excuse for the nation’s biggest Blue State to still show so much red! Because of the inept and disastrous “leadership” of the state party, the refusal of the DCCC to invest in real races like CA-44 & CA-46, and the horribly gawd-awful “leadership” by The Task Force & Equality California on the No on 8 campaign & their failure to have a real ground game, we missed the opportunity to turn the Obama victory into a progressive victory in California.

Now contrast what happened in California on Tuesday to what happened in Nevada on the same day. While one state didn’t change much, the other state next door underwent a massive transformation! Like Mountain West neighbors New Mexico & Colorado, Nevada is now officially a Blue State! And not just that, but Democrats now have a broad and clear mandate for progressive change.

Progressive Democrat Dina Titus was elected to Congress in a “swing district” that Bush won in 2004. Democrats now control both houses in the state legislature for the first time since 1991, including a 2/3 supermajority in the Assembly. Voters approved a good initiative that will actually help Nevada fully fund its schools. And of course, Barack Obama won the ex-Red State by a whopping 12%, including an 18% win in Clark County (Las Vegas Metro) and wins in the formerly Republican Carson City & Washoe (Reno) Counties!

So why were the results in Nevada so dramatically different? Let’s see, Harry Reid and the state party leaders actually began early in registering more Democrats and building an aggressive field operation while the GOP was power drunk and asleep at the wheel. The Obama campaign and the state party were effective in coordinating with the Dina Titus campaign, the Jill Derby campaign up north, and the local campaigns. All the candidates up and down the ballot had a clear and consistent message for change more. economy, energy & environment, education, health care, and so much more. Basically, Democrats worked together on the ground and that’s why we won!

So what lessons can we learn from this tale of two states? First off, there’s no real substitute for a grassroots door-to-door, face-to-face campaign. Despite the good last-minute ads, they may have been too little & too late to make up for the lack of a ground game for No on 8 in California. Meanwhile in Nevada, no amount of negative attack ads from the Republicans against Dina Titus & Barack Obama could make up for their complete lack of a ground game while we Democrats truly rocked the vote!

OSecondly, Nevada Democrats succeeded in translating an Obama victory into a progressive victory while California Democrats were simply lost in translation. Why couldn’t we win the 45th & 48th Congressional Districts when Obama carried them? Why couldn’t Debbie Cook win in the 46th when Obama carried it? Why were there so many undervotes statewide? Whatever the Nevada Democratic Party did right, the California Democratic Party needs to learn how to do it.

And finally, we should all be of good cheer! The West is ours if we want it! The results across the region prove that where Democrats work, Democrats win. But in places like California where state party leaders grew complacent, we lost out on real opportunities.

So what do we do next? After we’re done celebrating, we will go back to work! We have more work to do to keep progress going, so let’s do it! 😀

Overall, last night was a great night, in spite of a few blemishes. So far my predictions in the presidential and governor races are pretty close to the actual results, my Senate predictions may be depending on how the recount in Minnesota and the Georgia runoff go, and it looks like my House predictions may have been a tad optimistic. Once the dust completely settles, I will have a more detailed analysis of my predictions vs. the actual results. For the time being, enjoy my state-by-state analysis of the 2008 election below the flip.

Alabama – Everything here panned out according to my predictions, including the surprise Democratic upset in the 2nd district that I changed to a Dem win at the last minute.

Alaska – Seems like the polls in the Senate and House races underestimated the Palin effect on the convicted Stevens and the embattled Young. My opinion of Alaska has officially gone down. It’s a beautiful state, but they elect horrible politicians!

Arizona – Everything here panned out according to my predictions, including the presidency, though I had a slight hope of an Obama upset in the wake of recent polls showing only a few points between Obama and McCain, and in AZ-03, which I believe was McCain’s House seat in the 80s.

Arkansas – I am disappointed, though not very surprised, in the presidential results here, having McCain up by only high single digits in the final prediction when he ended up taking the state in a 20-point blowout. Arkansas, like most of the Upper South, is PUMA land. Though the state and the area are trending away from us, don’t be surprised to see Hillary win here if she runs again.

California – My home state was a VERY mixed bag last night. I will give a fuller analysis of the results later on, when the few million uncounted ballots are in, since a few Assembly races and a ballot measure are still undecided. The good news first, is that Obama won in a huge landslide by about as much as I predicted, though my gut feeling was that Obama’s numbers would be closer to Kerry’s, being the first Democrat (and second overall) winning over 60% of the vote since Franklin Roosevelt in 1936. We also had some wins in the ballot measures, passing 1A (High-Speed Rail w00t!) and 2 (more humane farm animal confinement), and beating back the odious 4 (Parental Notification III). Now for the bad news: disappointing results in the House races (though McNerney won, McClintock may become the new Congressman in CA-04), state legislature (a razor-thin battle in SD-19 and being ahead in only 3 of the 7 competitive Assembly races, one of the ones we’re behind in being a Dem-held seat), and especially on Proposition 8, which outlaws same-sex marriage.

Colorado – We had yet another great year here, finally knocking off culture warrior Marilyn Musgrave, taking the open Senate seat, and Obama winning! How many people were predicting Colorado to be this blue just six years ago? Not many, and those that did would probably have been laughed out of the room. Major kudos to Dean for choosing Denver for the convention!

Connecticut – Another great state for Dems, with Obama winning by more than 20 points, and finally completing the task of shutting out Republicans in every single House seat in New England with Chris Shays outta there!

Delaware – Just a few years ago, Delaware was seen as a possible Republican pick-off with Rudy and in the open governor’s race with a tepidly popular incumbent Democrat. Now, with the Biden effect and Markell’s huge landslide (ensuring that a Democrat will succeed Biden in the Senate), it is hard to believe that was the case. Taking the state House of Representatives was the feather in the hat.

District of Columbia – Though the result was beyond predictable, I was still amazed that Obama managed over 90% here.

Florida – I nearly passed out when Obama was declared the winner here. This is the first time in recent history that the polls were actually on par with the results. I was less surprised with the House results, however. Keller and Feeney went down as predicted, as did Tim Mahoney (and good riddance! An unusual time when I want to see a Democrat out of Congress), while the Cuban incumbents prevailed.

Georgia – Not long ago, I was expecting Georgia to only get redder across the board. Surprisingly, the vote went to McCain by only a few points, as well as the odious Chambliss in the Senate race (with a runoff possible if no one gets 50%). The two Democratic Congressmen, Marshall and Barrow, who were expected to be in serious trouble prevailed by much wider margins than even I expected. I guess for them 2010 (and then redistricting in 2012 if they survive then) will be the real test.

Hawaii – I was expecting the Islands of Aloha to be Obama’s widest margin, though I was still surprised at the 45% margin obliteration Obama handed McCain here.

Idaho – McCain won by a wide margin as expected, but his coattails could not save the repugnant Bill Sali, who was picked off by Walter Minnick in ID-01, who will be the first Democratic congressman from Idaho since 1992.

Illinois – The Land of Lincoln went to Obama by a huge margin as expected, though his coattails were not long enough to drag Dan Seals in IL-10 across the finish line. Halvorson and Foster did win in their districts, though. Now the next step is who Governor Blagojevich appoints to Obama’s Senate seat.

Indiana – Perhaps the biggest upset of all is Obama’s win in this state that has been strongly Republican since the party’s founding, only going Democratic in huge Democratic landslides. Downballot, however, everything else played out according to expectations, except for the “bloody 9th”, in which Baron Hill surprisingly smashed Mike Sodrel in their fourth consecutive matchup.

Iowa – Once one of the swingiest of swing states, going narrowly for Gore and then narrowly for Bush, Obama won this corn-heavy state very handily. Tom Harkin also scored his first ever landslide, while Latham won by a wider margin than expected.

Kansas – We still have a lot of work to do here, though Obama did close the gap considerably, as Nancy Boyda in KS-02 fell to moderate Republican State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, the survivor of a bloody primary with ex-Representative Jim Ryun, who was much more conservative.

Kentucky – After Obama had secured the nomination, I initially expected Kentucky, like most other PUMA-heavy states, to be among his worst. However, Louisville probably helped him stay at Kerry-esque levels. The other competitive races went according to prediction, with Republican Senator Mitch McConnell holding on by single digits, Brett Guthrie holding the open KY-02, and Democrat John Yarmuth in KY-03 brushing off a rematch with the Republican he unseated, Anne Northup.

Louisiana – With many Democratic voters displaced by Hurricane Katrina, McCain improved upon Bush by a few points. Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu won her third term by a close margin, like her other two elections, though this time she will not go into a runoff. Corrupt Congressman Bill Jefferson is headed for another term in LA-02, which is based in New Orleans; the winner in the open LA-04 will be determined after a December runoff. Another major disappointment happened in LA-06, with black independent candidate Michael Jackson playing the role of spoiler and causing Democrat Don Cazayoux’s loss to Bill Cassidy.

Maine – Nothing special. Exactly as my formulas predicted, Obama and Republican Senator Susan Collins won in landslides.

Maryland – Probably the state that best fits Obama, he won by a very comfortable 20%+ margin on par with California’s as expected. The 1st congressional district on the Eastern Shore, open because the incumbent moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest was beaten in the primary, was up in the air for a few days after the election, was finally won by the Democrat, Frank Kratovil, who got Gilchrest’s endorsement.

Massachusetts – Uneventful. Landslides for Obama and all 10 representatives. Surprisingly, no Republican stepped up to challenge Niki Tsongas, who barely won a special election just a year ago.

Michigan – Once considered a possible Democratic loss, Michigan came out for Obama and Democrats big-time, with Obama and Senator Carl Levin winning in landslides, and Democrats knocking off two Republican congressmen, one of which beat a moderate Republican in the primary last time.

Minnesota – Like 2004 and 2006, this too was expected to be a great year for Democrats in Minnesota, but the results fell short of expectations. Obama improved upon Kerry, though not by much in the outstate areas. The Senate race between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken was expected to be the closest Senate race in the country, and still is as the result still has yet to be called and is going into a recount. On the House front, Democrats came disappointingly short in winning the Republican-held open seat in a moderate suburban Minneapolis district, and in unseating nutball Michele Bachmann in her not-as-conservative district.

Mississippi – Obama improved upon Kerry, but not by much, and the special Senate election ended up falling into Republican quasi-incumbent Roger Wicker’s hands despite a stronger-than-usual challenge from former governor Ronnie Musgrove, who’s campaign collapsed at the last minute. Good news, though, Democrat Travis Childers won reelection to a full House term.

Missouri – Once again, Missouri was a battleground state as everyone expected. If you are wondering which state in the US gave major victories to both parties, look no further than Missouri. Of the candidates this year, Obama was the worst Dem, though Missouri usually goes Democratic in bad economic times, while McCain was the best Repub and was expected to win until he chose Palin, so it is no surprise that polls towards the end were tied. McCain ended up winning by an extremely slim margin, making this presidential election the first since 1956 that Missouri did not vote for the winner. The two House districts that were expected to be close, the 6th and 9th, ended up staying in GOP hands, though the latter was closer than expected. In the statewide races, Democrats won them all except for the Lieutenant Governor, where moderate Republican Peter Kinder held on in another close race. Democrat Jay Nixon crushed Congressman Kenny Hulshof in the open governor’s race, overperforming traditional Democratic numbers in the heavily Republican southwestern corner of the state in the Ozark Mountains while underperforming in the north of the state due to Hulshof having represented part of that area in Congress. Democrats also took the open Treasurer and Attorney General offices, while Democrat Robin Carnahan won reelection as Secretary of State in a landslide.

Montana – Having gone Republican by over 20 points in the last two elections, Montana was one of the last states to call its presidential results, which stayed with McCain, but only by 3%. As expected, Democrats Brian Schweitzer and Max Baucus won reelection to the Governorship and Senate respectively in landslides.

Nebraska – For the first time ever, a state that splits its electoral votes did so, with Obama taking the 2nd congressional district, based in Omaha! Unfortunately, the House race did not follow a similar path. Though the margin presidentially was less than 2004, McCain still won comfortably, as did Republican Mike Johanns in the open Senate seat.

Nevada – What was once a strongly red state not that long ago, and is a neighbor to McCain’s own home state to boot, has gone for Obama by double-digits and turned away Republican Congressman John Porter for Democrat Dina Titus in a suburban Vegas House district.

New Hampshire – Nope, the Democratic tsunami from 2006 was not a fluke. Obama won by double digits, Governor John Lynch crushed another Republican, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen knocked off incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu, and Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter rode the wave in with Obama, Lynch, and Shaheen.

New Jersey – Obama and Senator Frank Lautenberg won comfortably as expected, as did John Adler in the Democratic-leaning 3rd congressional district. Linda Stender fell further short in the marginal open 7th district than she did in 2006.

New Mexico – Another great state for Democrats, with them taking the state’s electoral votes, the open Senate seat, and both open Republican-held districts (including the conservative southern New Mexico district) by landslide margins. Thank you so much, Governor Richardson. THANK YOU!!! ¡Muchas, muchas, MUCHAS gracias, Señor Richardson!

New York – Everything played out here according to predictions, with Obama winning in a landslide and Democrats taking the 13th, 25th, and 29th districts while holding the 20th. The 26th was disappointing (but not surprising after the crazy primary), as was the 24th, where freshman Democrat Mike Arcuri won by a surprisingly small margin after winning by a wider margin just two years ago.

North Carolina – What an amazing turnaround for Democrats in this Upper South state that seemed to be slipping further out of our grasp! Obama was finally declared the winner Friday, Beverly Perdue held off a strong challenge from moderate Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory to hold the open governorship and become the first female governor in the state, and in a dramatic upset, Kay Hagan defeated Elizabeth Dole! Democratic success in the Tar Heel State did not stop here, though. The 8th congressional district, out in NASCAR country, turned away controversial incumbent Robin Hayes for populist Democrat Larry Kissell. Welcome to the Democratic Party, NASCAR Dads!

North Dakota – Though polls showed Obama within range here in this sugar/ethanol-heavy state, McCain ended up pulling off a win here. Also, according to predictions, Republican Governor John Hoeven won in a huge landslide.

Ohio – I was thrilled when the networks called Obama the winner here. No Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio. The margin did become uncomfortably small as the night wore on, but Obama held on in the end. On the House front, Democrats picked off Republican seats in OH-01 (Cincinnati) and OH-16 (next to the Cleveland area). Mean Jean Schmidt held on in the suburban Cincy-based 2nd district, and the Columbus-based 15th is still too close to call, though Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy is slightly behind.

Oklahoma – No surprises. McCain won big. Inhofe won big.

Oregon – After being a cliffhanger in the last two elections, Obama won big here, and his coattails probably helped Democrat Jeff Merkley edge out moderate Republican Senator Gordon Smith. Democrats also comfortably held the open 5th House district.

Pennsylvania – Once thought to be McCain’s best shot at picking off a Kerry state, Pennsylvania ended up giving the Democrats another great year. Obama won in a landslide, we picked off the 3rd district while giving Jason Altmire in the 4th, Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, and John Murtha in the 12th another term. We left Bob Roggio in the 6th for dead against incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach, and Gerlach only won with 52%. Seems our best chance to take out Gerlach will at the soonest be 2012, if we can redistrict him into more Democratic turf.

Rhode Island – Landslides for Democrats all across the board.

South Carolina – Turnout among blacks improved here, cutting McCain’s margin to half of Bush’s, but it wasn’t enough to drag Democratic candidates in the Senate race or the 1st or 2nd districts across the finish line.

South Dakota – Though McCain won the state, Obama improved Democratic numbers in the east of the state. Tim Johnson also won his first easy reelection to the Senate, and a less draconian abortion ban also went down.

Tennessee – Probably the heart of PUMA-land. Though Obama won strongly in Memphis and Nashville, which saved him from doing worse than Kerry, he got clobbered everywhere else in the state. Republican Senator Lamar Alexander also won in a huge landslide.

Texas – Without a native son on the ballot, Texas has shown its true numbers this year, with McCain and Cornyn both winning by margins in the lower teens. In the House races, the 22nd was a disappointing, but not surprising, defeat for Nick Lampson. We never expected Lampson to hold this seat long-term, and the true justice from the DeLay-mander overturn was in the 23rd, where Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, who was also a victim (though in the primary) won in a surprise upset in 2006 and held on this year. There was buzz on the 7th and 10th districts being competitive, but they ended up staying Republican in the end. A point of concern is the 17th district, where incumbent Democrat Chet Edwards held on by just 7 points, much less than expected and much less than his 2006 margin.

Utah – As expected, McCain won big here, though Obama picked up a couple of counties, a feat neither Gore nor Kerry were able to accomplish.

Vermont – Obama’s second-best state.

Virginia – Another state that was unfriendly Democratic turf just a little while ago, gave Democrats wins all across the board, handing Obama its electoral votes, handing ultra-popular former governor Mark Warner a landslide victory in the open Senate race, and handing two House seats, Virginia Beach-based VA-02 and NOVA-based VA-11, to the Democrats. A third House seat has the potential to flip as well, with VA-05 not yet called.

Washington – So far, Obama won handily, Democratic governor Christine Gregoire won a rematch against Dino Rossi, who she beat in an incredibly close nailbiter by only 133 votes and after recounts. In the 8th congressional district, Democrat Darcy Burner is ahead of Republican incumbent Dave Reichert by a tiny margin, and the outcome will likely not be decided for a while because of Washington’s vote-by-mail tradition.

West Virginia – Another PUMA state, West Virginia gave McCain a similar margin that it gave Bush in 2004, meaning the state trended dramatically Republican presidentially since the national margin shifted from a +2 Bush margin to +6 Obama margin. Some good for us, though, Democrats Joe Manchin and Jay Rockefeller landslid to another term in the governorship and Senate respectively. There was buzz in the 2nd House district about Democrat Anne Barth possibly taking down incumbent Republican Shelley Moore Capito, but that buzz ended up going nowhere.

Wisconsin – Hard to believe this state was the closest Democratic win just a mere four years ago. Now, the state has gone Democratic by double digits and gave incumbent Democratic congressman Steve Kagen another term.

Wyoming – This state was a minor disappointment. Wyoming was not expected to go as Republican as its neighbors Idaho and Utah, as well as Oklahoma, but results show it may be the most Republican state. The Senate races, one of which was up in a special election, went heavily Republican as expected, and Democrat Gary Trauner, who came within one point of unseating controversial Republican incumbent Congresswoman Barbara Cubin (who retired this year) fell further short against Republican former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis.

So overall, my expectations of Democrats on the national level pretty much played out, with an occasional disappointment here and there. Back home in California, though, was mostly another story. My fuller analysis of elections there will come later on when all the votes are in.

I know this site mainly focuses on Congressional, statewide, and state legislature races, but in California, ballot measures are a big deal and can set examples for the rest of the nation. Thanks to Calitics ( http://www.calitics.com ), I was able to find enough information on the 12 ballot measures to give my recommendations, which are over the flip.

Prop 1A (High Speed Rail): This measure will allow the state to purchase $10 billion in bonds for creating a high speed rail system. The money will also be leveraged to get federal dollars and private investments. For more information, check out the California High-Speed Rail Blog. ( http://cahsr.blogspot.com/ )

My Recommendation: YES!!!

Prop 2 (Farm Animal Conditions): This measure will require farm animals to be able to stand up, turn around, and basically be comfortable in their cages. Despite the protests from Big Agriculture, this measure could level the playing field for small farmers. Here is a cute video from the “Yes On 2” campaign: ( http://uncaged.yesonprop2.com/ )

My Recommendation: Yes

Prop 3 (Children’s Hospital Bonds): This measure would allow the state to sell bonds to provide additional funds for children’s hospitals. Though I don’t like the idea of ballot-box budgeting, this will probably be a very good investment, as the state’s hospitals in general need a lot of work and some could go to ensuring that all county and other public hospitals remain viable.

My Recommendation: Yes

Prop 4 (Parental Notification): The anti-choice jerks are at it again for another encore, after failing in 2005 and 2006. For the third time, we’ve said that we want to make sure that our teenage girls are safe. Like the failed 73 and 85, this measure requires parental notification, which is fine if the teen has a functional, supportive family, but can be dangerous in abusive, dysfunctional families. Unlike 73 and 85, this one allows for a judicial bypass, but can you realistically expect a distressed teenage girl to go through the courts? This one is running close, so get the word out! In addition, this is a great case for reform establishing a limit as to how many times one can bring similar ballot measures to the ballot.

My Recommendation: NO-NO-NO-NO-NO!!!

Prop 5 (Drug Rehab): This would decrease the nonviolent offender prison population by moving them into rehab, and reducing sentences for these nonviolent offenders depending upon their successful completion of rehab program. This is a follow-up to the wildly successful Prop 36 of a few years back, which saved millions of dollars. Unfortunately, Senator Feinstein came out against Prop 5 in a press release that merely rehashes the No on 5 campaign talking points. Let’s be smart, not pseudo-tough.

My Recommendation: Yes

Prop 6 (Gang Measure): This measure increases prison sentences for young gang offenders and would likely cost about a billon dollars per year, which would guaranteed go up since the measure guarantees increases for inflation, and higher prison expenses as a result of new or longer sentences, as well as $500 million for jails for more prisoners. Too much money for far too few results. ( http://www.votenoprop6.com/mn_… )

My Recommendation: NO!

Prop 7 (Renewable Power Standard): This measure is not necessary since there already is a renewable power standard in California thanks to recent anti-global warming legislation. Though this measure would expand those requirements from 20% to 50% by by 2025, plants smaller than 30 megawatts would be excluded when they have been leading the way on our path towards energy independence.

My Recommendation: No

Prop 8 (Anti-Marriage Amendment): Not much to say here, except that the measure would eliminate marriage rights for same-gender couples. Reject bigotry!

My Recommendation: NO, NO, NO, NO, NO!!!

Prop 9 (Victim’s Rights): This measure reduces the frequency of parole hearings and allows victims and their survivors to be present. The OC Register does a great job explaining why you should vote against it ( http://www.votenoprop9.com/ocr… ):

Prop. 9 would place those rights into the state constitution rather than into statutory law, the distinction being that the constitution is much more difficult to change if problems develop. It would also give crime victims and their families the constitutional right to prevent the release of certain documents to criminal defendants or their attorneys, and the right to refuse to be interviewed or provide pretrial testimony or other evidence to a defendant. The constitution would be changed to require judges to take the safety of victims into consideration when granting bail. It would make restitution the first priority when spending any money collected from defendants in the form of fines. It would also extend the time between parole hearings from the current one to five years to three to 15 years.

An interesting note on this measure: it was funded by Henry T. Nicholas III, co-founder and former CEO of Broadcom, who happens to have been indicted for white collar fraud as well as drug charges including accusing “Nicholas of using ecstasy to spike the drinks of industry executives and employees of Broadcom customers.”

My Recommendation: NO!

Prop 10 (Natural Gas Giveaway): This would sell $5 billion worth of bonds to help Californians buy cleaner cars. The problem is that “clean” is defined as using natural gas, and hybrids are not included. It also wouldn’t require that the commercial trucks purchased with the overwhelming majority of these funds stay in the state, and is just a power grab by Swift Boat Liars funder Funder T. Boone Pickens. We do need cleaner fuel, but not by shifting from one fossil fuel (oil) to another (natural gas).

My Recommendation: No

Prop 11 (Redistricting): This measure would give equal power to Democrats and Republicans to draw the maps, and would exclude from the commission anybody who has had any experience relevant to the process, and gives Republicans too much power. It’s opposed by leading minority organizations and the Democratic Party. For more information, see this diary at Calitics: ( http://www.calitics.com/showDi… )

My Recommendation: NO!!!

Prop 12 (Veterans Bond): These things always pass, and are always pretty small. This bond funds a program to help veterans purchase farms and homes.  It’s a decent program, and the bond has passed something like 20 times over the last 100 years.  It likely will again. Despite our concerns over ballot box budgeting, helping out our veterans is a worthwhile cause.

My Recommendation: Yes

It was instead the three am alarm clock that my husband had asked me to set.  He got home last night at around 9pm from a candidate forum in Fullerton.  He hadn’t eaten dinner and was trying to figure out what to have (He wasn’t much interested in what I had made for dinner, although it was nicely packed in a tupperware container in the fridge just in case he wanted it).  He also let me know that the people who had volunteered to put his signs out were unable to do so now.

So, he asked me to set the alarm for 3am.  He had spent the afternoon attempting to put signs up but with the traffic, etc., he said it took too long.  He was going to get up and do it when there was hardly anyone on the road.

You can’t knock him for not being dedicated.

Gary Pritchard, my husband, is running for the California State Senate in the 33rd district.  He first did this to put a “D” on the ballot and then decided he would do the best he could.  It was quite an undertaking for us but why not?  

It has proven to be quite a bit for us to handle but we are doing it.  Gary works full time, as do I and we have a five year daughter.  It’s been quite a juggling act.

Gary called on Wednesday to ask if I could pick up the stakes for the signs and find a way to assemble them.  Sure!  I panicked a bit but then called the South OC Democratic Club and they were kind enough to assemble his signs.  Done.

But this morning, Gary got up at 3am to put his signs out.  I tried to go back to sleep, I know.  What kind of wife am I?  Well, I’m the kind of wife who seems to be coming down with another cold and who has health problems that tend to get worse with lack of sleep.  He understands this.

Gary got back at about 5:30 am.  To say it was a restful night would be far from the truth.  My alarm went off at 6:30 and it was time to start my day.

After showering and getting our five year old up and dressed, I came down stairs to find that Gary had made breakfast.  Biscuits (Trader Joe’s is a Godsend, they were fresh from the oven) and eggs.  Charlotte was eating away and Gary had already packed her snack for school.

I could tell he was tired.  Gary still has to teach today but he said he could get another couple of hours of sleep in before having to be at school.  And then after that he would be putting more signs up.

The 33rd district covers a huge amount of area, including Anaheim, Anaheim Hills, Fullerton, Villa Park, Orange, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Laguna Hills, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, Aliso Viejo, Buena Park, Tustin, Silverado, Irvine, Santa Ana, Lake Forest, Coto de Caza and Foothill Ranch.  I like to call the district map, “Rexi”.  

Gary and I spent Saturday morning putting up some of the signs with Charlotte in the car.  Now when she sees them, she screams, “I was with you when you put those up, right?”  We saw a few on the way to school and on my way to work.  I managed some blurry photos from my blackberry.  I had to get the signs while they were still up, who knows how long they’ll last.

This was the first attempt.  Um, what sign?

Not fast enough!

Too soon!

Ah, there we go!

There are a lot of signs popping up all over the County, I’m glad to see some of them belong to Gary.  I’m proud of him and for how willing he is to work hard for this even if it means we don’t see very much of him at times.

I got this with my camera phone as well.  There have been a lot of local protests in favor of Prop 8.

But I try to remember the most important thing about all of this.  Gary is doing this for Charlotte, our five year old.  She’s bright, she’s daring and she’s sweet.  

Charlotte doesn’t quite understand why anyone would care about who someone marries but then again, I don’t think she needs to understand that right now.  I just attempt to answer her questions as simply and honestly as possible.  As much as I want to shelter her from things, I know that by making no question off limits, I will hopefully help her grow to be a compassionate and caring citizen who questions authority and loves her Country very much.  The two are not mutually exclusive!

So, that was our 3 am moment.  I’m sure there will be others, weve still got two more weeks of this to go and I have to say, I’m really looking forward to November 5th.

Gary and Charlotte!