AZ-01 – Page 5 – Swing State Project

AZ-01: Renzi Indicted

A federal grand jury has indicted Republican U.S. Rep. Richard Renzi of Arizona on 35 criminal counts including conspiracy, wire fraud, money laundering and official extortion, according to court papers unsealed on Friday.

The indictment stems from plan by Renzi and an associate to benefit from a land-exchange plan in order to receive Renzi’s support for necessary federal legislation, court documents said.

Wonder if he’ll have to bail early ala DeLay and Ney.

Update (Trent): Boehner is encouraging Renzi to resign.

Full House Ratings: Democrats feel even better in October

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07…

A lot will still happen in the next few weeks. Republicans are afraid that many more Republicans will announce their retirement, for that has really been to bottom line so far: Whatever chance the GOP had of reclaiming a majority next year (and it was already a slim chance) has been erased by the number of competitive open seats the party will have to defend, some of them completely unexpectedly. Two good news the Republicans did get recently were from unexpected places. The first is from VA-11, a blue-trending district held by Republican Tom Davis. It appeared certain that Davis would run for Senate — offering the seat to Dems, but it now seems he will stay where he is. The second good news came from MA-05, where the GOP got a “moral victory” this week in the special election that the Democrat won by only 5% in a very Democratic district. Moral victories might not be much, but Hackett’s near-win in very red OH-02 in 2005 certainly prefigured larger gains in 2006.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For deatiled descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past four months. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

Less competitive: OH-02, VA-11
More competitive: AK-AL, IN-09, IL-11, KS-03, NM-11, NJ-03, OH-07, OH-14

Outlook: Democrats pick-up a net 7-10 seats.

The full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

AZ-1 (Open)
CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Nothing much has changed since last month. Doolittle is under heavy investigation for his ties with Abramoff, and he is refusing to retire, drawing fire from his own party. Democrats are running 2006 nominee Brown, and if Doolittle stays the GOP candidate, they seem assured of carrying the seat. But if the RNCC is successful in getting Doolittle to retire, the race will drop down and strongly favor Republican. It is a red district and is rated so high only because of Doolittle’s troubles.
NM-1 (Open, upgraded): Heather Wilson is running for Senate, and this swing district finally opened up. Republicans got the candidate they white when Sheriff White jumped in the race, but the seat slightly leans Democratic and that should play help the Democratic nominee (right now probably Heinrich, but 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid could jump in) cross the finish line. White released a poll showing him ahead in a general election, but it was an internal poll. We will downgrade the race is that is confirmed by independent pollsters
OH-15 (Open): Republicans have pretty much given up on this seat since Rep. Pryce announced she was retiring. A whole line-up of Republicans passed up on the race one after the other, most notably former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro. Democrat Kilroy (the 2006 nominee) seems to have the Dem nomination wrapped up, and should sail to victory. With so many other seats to worry about in Ohio, the GOP will likely not spend that much time defending this one.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Angie Paccione, the 2006 nominee, was preparing for a rematch against Musgrave, but announced she was dropping out in late September. This leaves Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar, as the likely Democratic nominee.
CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Democrats are in the midst of a tight primary fight between Jay Footlik and 2006 nominee Daniel Seals.
IL-11 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Weller’s decision to call it quits in this competitive district made it a top target for Democrats overnight. Their hand strengthened when they unexpectedly convinced Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in, while the leading Republican declined to run. Depending on where GOP recruitment ends up, this race could soon move up to “Lean Takeover.”
MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad’s retirement made this race an instant toss-up, but the GOP is reportedly pressuring him to reconsider his decision, arguing that conditions are too bad this cycle and Ramstad should wait one more to open his seat. That about tells you how vulnerable this seat is.
NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
NJ-03 (Rep. Saxton, upgraded): Republicans think they finally have the candidate in this swing district that Bush narrowly carried in 2004 but that Gore won by 10 points in 2000. State Senator John Adler is running, 18 years after a first run against Saxton at age 31. Depending on who tops the presidential ticket, this race could go either way.
OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
OH-16 (Open): Rep. Regula announced he would retire in mid-October, after years of speculation that his time had come. Democrats are running a strong candidate in the form of state Senator John Boccieri, but it might very well be that they would have had an easier time defeating the aging Regula than competing for an open seat in a district that is marginally Republican.
NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
VA-11 (Rep. Davis, possibly open; downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was ranked “lean takeover” because Tom Davis looked sure to jump in the Senate seat and open up this northern Virginia district in a region that has beentrending Democratic. But it now looks like Davis might not retire after all. Democrats are certain to challenge him more than they did in 2006, but Davis would start up as the favorite if he runs.
WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Read the rest of the rankings — and detailed accounts of many more races, including Democratic toss-ups, lean retentions, etc…, here!

HOUSE RATINGS: Democrats poised to keep their majority

The beginning of the month brought the Senate rankings. Two weeks have passed, so it is time to look at the picture in the House. As bad as this week was for the GOP on the Senate (and make no mistake about it, between Hagel’s retirement and Warner and Shaheen jumping in the race, this was as bad as it can get), House Republicans did their best to beat that. After a month of recruitment failures and retirement announcements, Republicans are not at their best in House races, and while some of them were hoping that they could reconquer the House in November 2008, that looks increasingly unlikely.

Read full ranking at Campaign Diaries.

It is naturally very early to tell where most of these races are headed. House contests develop much later than Senate ones. On the Senate side, most Senators are nearing announcements about whether they will run again, and most challengers have already taken steps towards launching their campaign. But on the House side, the recruitment drive is only starting and many more retirements are still expected.

It is however a good exercise to rank these races, see which ones are already in play, which ones are gearing up to be the most competitive of the next cycle, and where the challenging party really hasn’t gotten its act together. The overall picture favors Democrats: They are defending no competitive open seats, have put together some good challengers, and are benefiting from the national environment. Many Republicans who barely survived in 2006 are now being targeted, and races that were under-funded then will be treated as top-notch opportunities next year.

But Republicans also have a lot of opportunities: Of the 31 freshmen democrats who picked-up GOP seats last fall, many hold very red districts that are likely to vote even more Republican in a presidential year. Many are already being put to the test, and Republicans are claiming some recruitment victories (CA-11 or CT-5). But the GOP will have to work hard to put all the seats it wants in play.

Outlook: 6-10 seat Democratic pick-up

Here is the description ofonly the first ten seats. Go here for the full rankings!

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

AZ-1 (Open): Ethically challenged Renzi’s retirement gave Republicans a better shot at keeping the seat. But this is exactly the kind of scandal-tainted seat Democrats were so good at winning in 2006, so there is no reason to think they are not favored today.
CA-4 (Incumbent: Doolittle): This district is very heavily Republican and will favor the GOP in a heartbeat again if only FBI-investigated Doolittle gets out of the race. But he is claiming he will run — and as long as he does Democrat Brown (who almost beat him in 2006) has a great shot.
OH-15 (Open): Pryce did not want to go through another nasty and close race and called it quits, and major Republicans (like former AG Petro) passed on the race since then. Meanwhile, 2006 Democratic nominee Kilroy has been campaigning for months and is likely to take away the district.
VA-11 (Likely open): Tom Davis is running for Senate, and his district is in blue-trending Northern Virginia. This is exactly the kind of place in which Virginia Democrats have been making huge progress in recent years. Nothing is set in stone until Davis runs, but a huge headache for the GOP.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Foley’s former seat, that Mahoney only won because of the page scandal. That Republicans only lost by one point under these as-bad-as-it-gets local circumstances shows that Mahoney is not that strong here. Republicans are happy with their candidates, and plan to use Mahoney’s recent statements (such as one declaring that Congress “wasn’t the greatest job”) against him.

Republican seats, Toss-up (11)

CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Musgrave, best known for her obsession in the anti-gay marriage amendment, has been constantly under-performing in this district, and she won by a few points in 2006. Democrats did not pay that much attention to the race then, but they will this time. There is a primary between Angie Paccione (the 2006 nominee) and Betsy Markey (a former Salazar aide).
CT-4 (Rep. Shays): Shays survived two extremely close races in 2004 and 2006. This time, the candidate has changed and Jim Himes has been highly touted as the Democrat who will finally take out the last New England Republican. Shays is also threatening to resign or retire if leaders don’t give him what he wants.
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Netroots favorite Dan Seals got 47% in 2006, and is back for a rematch. IL-10 was on few people’s watchlist in 2006 but this is the kind of district the DCCC will go after this time around.
NC-8 (Rep. Hayes): Hayes won by a few hundred votes in 2006 against a Democrat to whom no one in DC was paying attention, and who received no funding from the DCCC. This time, Kissel has everyone’s attention and will get help from the national party. But Hayes, who was caught off-foot in 2006, will be prepared too.
NM-1 (Rep. Wilson): One of the closest races in 2006. Wilson thought her streak of victories against highly-touted Democrat would allow her to get a pass in 2008, but that was before the attorney scandal put her at the heart of an ethics controversy.

etc…!

Read the rest of the rankings (there are still plenty of seats described in detail and rated!) at Campaign Diaries.

When the GOP is left praying for 3 of its members to resign!

Congressional politics is defying all electoral norms these days. Usually, parties fear retirements more than anything and do as much as they can to get their representatives and senators to run again. Last week, however, Republicans breathed a small sigh of relief when Rep. Renzi announced he would not seek re-election in AZ-1. Stuck in ethical investigations, Renzi was playing right in the hands of the Democratic argument that Republicans are ethically challenged, and he could have doomed GOP chances in his district. Republicans learned the lesson of 2006, when they lost many of their House seats in heavy Republican territory because the incumbent was embroiled in scandals. (The worst were girlfriend-beating and mistress-strangling allegations made against Sweeney in NY-20 and Sherwood in PA-10). An open seat, Republicans reason, might actually be easier to defend.

The same thing is happening now: the resilience of Senator Craig, Senator Stevens of Alaska and Rep. Doolittle (CA-4) in the face of scandal are making their seats pick-up opportunies for Democrats. If any of these Republicans were to retire, Democratic chances would diminish.

Read full analysis – as well as an analysis of the South Dakota Senate race, where Republicans are also looking for a resignation to have any hope of having the seat – here, at Campaign Diaries.

Idaho

Senator Craig is the only one I believe should not retire, given the shady nature of the police report and Republican hypocrisy. But it is undeniable that his running for re-election is what gives Democrats the best shot. Yesterday, Mitch McConnell talked to Craig and confirmed reports that Craig was going to fight to invalidate his own guilty plea — and would stay in the Senate if he succeeded. McConnell implied he thought Craig should stay away from the Senate, and furious Republicans said the same, and moved to already replace Craig on the Senate committees he vacated last week.

But all might not be lost for Democrats even if Craig does resign. Idaho Governor Otter was reported yesterday to be considering appointing a place-holder, meaning someone who will not run for a full-term in 2008. Otter reportedly said that too many Republicans want the job, so that it would be unfair of him to act as a one-man Republican primary. In such a case, Otter would allow Lt. Gov Rish, Rep. Simpson and otehr Idaho Republican figures to fight it out in the primary, and then compete for an open seat. Republicans would probably still be favored, but La Rocco would at least have an opening.

Alaska

Alaska Democrats have not been able to capitalize on opportunities the past few cycles, with former Governor Knowles losing a very tight Senate race in 2004 and a not-so-tight race for Governor in 2006. The Republican bench in Alaska is deep, and the Palin v. Knowles race 2006 indicated that the GOP has a huge edge in case of open seats. So, Dems have no chance against veteran Senator Stevens in 2008? Not so fast. We all remember how the FBI raided Stevens’s house last month. Yesterday came news from The Hill that the allegations of unethical behavior are mounting against Stevens:

Sen. Ted Stevens has quietly steered millions of federal dollars to a sportfishing industry group founded by Bob Penney, a longtime friend who helped the Alaska Republican profit from a lucrative land deal, according to public records and officials from the state. Critics say those earmarked federal dollars could be the first example of how Stevens rewarded Penney for a land deal in Utah that reportedly earned the senator more than $125,000. Penney’s group, for its part, rewarded Stevens with several expensive gifts at the time it was receiving the earmarked dollars.

With Anchorage Mayor Begich possibly getting in the race, Democrats would have an easier time making a case against Sen. Stevens than winning an open seat.

CA-4

Rep. Doolittle represents a very Republican district of California that should be no trouble for Republicans. But he is being investigated for corruption and for his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Plagued by the scandal, Doolittle barely survived in the 2006 election, edging Democrat Brown by a few points. Brown is back for a rematch, and knows that the Republican edge of the district would be to much to overcome if it wasn’t for Doolittle’s troubles. Yesterday, things got a bit more difficult for Doolittle, as two of his aides were subpoenaed to testify in front of a grand jury.

And then came out this poll from a Republican polling firm (Wilson Research Strategies) showing that Doolittle would lose against Charlie Brown 51% to 31%. Doolittle, who is facing a Republican primary against several candidates, would edge out his competitors with only 34% of the vote. You better believe Republicans are praying for Doolittle to resign or lose the primary. Or they might as well give up any hope of keeping CA-4 come November 2008.

Read full analysis – as well as an analysis of the South Dakota Senate race, where Republicans are also looking for a resignation to have any hope of having the seat – here, at Campaign Diaries.

AZ-01: Under Fire, Renzi Will Retire

With the retirements of Reps. Hastert (IL-14), Pryce (OH-15), and Pickering (MS-03) last week, the Republican caucus has been bracing itself for more surprises. Today brings another retirement: embattled Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01). From Roll Call:

Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) said Thursday in a statement obtained by Roll Call that he will not seek re-election in 2008, ending months of speculation regarding the ethically clouded Congressman’s political future.

“I will not be seeking re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008. I am honored and thankful to serve Arizona’s first district and appreciate all that we have accomplished together over the past 6 years.” […]

Renzi staved off a spirited challenge from his Democratic challenger last cycle, but saw his political fortunes plummet following an FBI raid of a business connected to his family as part of a federal probe into his dealings as a Congressman.

Renzi has not admitted to any wrongdoing, but it has become increasingly clear that the investigation would imperil any 2008 re-election bid, and possibly result in him facing multiple GOP primary challengers.

This one is not so surprising. While Republicans will likely to view this as some necessary bloodletting, Arizona’s 1st will likely be a top tier race next year. With a PVI of R+2.2, it’s had a Republican lean over the past two Presidential cycles, but not an insurmountable one. The Democratic field includes State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Mary Kim Titla and attorney Howard Shanker. It remains to be seen whether or not Arizona Republicans will field a Randy Graf-type here. In any event, this race will be a barn-burner.

AZ-01: DCCC Prepping Special Campaign Fund

The DCCC is not sitting around waiting for Rick Renzi to resign. According to the Washington Post, they have established a special election fund for the eventual nominee.

Readying for a special election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has opened a special election fund to collect cash that would benefit the party’s eventual nominee. If a vacancy occurs, the Democratic special election nominee would benefit from an immediate cash infusion from this fund. The DCCC began raising money yesterday for the effort.

“Rick Renzi’s seat was a target before his family business was raided by the FBI. It’s even more so now. If and when there is special election, the Democratic candidate will have the support needed to win,” said Jennifer Crider, a DCCC spokeswoman.

I’ll wait until I see a resignation. But if and when it happens, I will be ready to do my part.

AZ-01: Renzi Acknowledges He May Resign

On Tuesday, we learned that embattled Republican Rep. Rick Renzi of Arizona requested to be cut from the House Republican ROMP (“Regain Our Majority Program”) fund in the wake of an exposed federal investigation into Renzi’s role in a land-swap deal and an FBI raid on his wife’s insurance business. If that wasn’t enough to set off the early-retirement alarm bells, Renzi is acknowledging that he may resign soon, according to the Business Journal of Phoenix and the East Valley Tribune:

Rep. Rick Renzi. R-Ariz., is “looking at” the prospect of resigning his office in response to an FBI public-corruption investigation.

On Tuesday, he told The Hill, a newspaper that covers the Washington political scene, that he was considering leaving office.

He has denied any wrongdoing, but has stepped down, at least temporarily, from his three committee assignments.

Renzi’s district, with a PVI of R+2.2, went for Bush by a margin of 8 points in 2004 and 5 points in 2000, and it’s known for having a largely middle of the road political identity.

It’s time to ramp up for either a special election, a 2008 open seat, or an aggressive challenge against a damaged incumbent (a scenario that’s looking less and less likely). Who might we run here? In any event, it’s going to be an all-out brawl.

(H/T to RandyMI)

UPDATE: RandySF (lots of Randys have been on top of this story, it seems) brings us word that Republican leaders are urging Renzi to resign:

Top Republicans, including U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl, have been meeting to discuss what they will do if Renzi resigns and his rural congressional seat opens up.

Republican leaders also are starting to encourage Renzi to resign, saying a prolonged investigation will hurt the party’s chances of holding onto his Arizona seat, according to knowledgeable sources.

Democrats also are preparing for a Renzi exit. Cottonwood attorney Jim Ledbetter is among those being recruited by party leadership to run for Renzi’s seat in a possible special election.