Tag: MI-09

2 terms of George Bush is too long. 15 terms of Joe Knollenberg is WAY too long. I’m excited to share with you the story of my congressional district, and tell you about the most exciting candidate to run in the past few cycles!

Last November voters across the country told the Republican party that we are sick of their war, we are sick of their endless spending, and we want change. Joe Knollenberg faced his toughest challenge yet.

Now is the time to bring about change in MI-09.

Gary Peters is the kind of leader we need to send to Congress. He’s stood up to special interest money before, fighting the oil lobby to ban drilling in the Great Lakes as a State Senator. He’s ready to go to work for us again, to get us on a new direction in Iraq, fight for pay-as-you-go budgeting, and making health care affordable for all Americans.

There are still 5 days left to contribute to Peters for Congress, so we can work together to bring about change. Early donations (before the September 30th FEC deadline) help get essential campaign operations off the ground and attracts attention.

Contribute today at ActBlue!

It is disappointing to see 146 Democrats vote to condemn online activists, when we face much bigger problems and challenges. Gary Peters is a respected legislator ready to get to work on the REAL issues we face.

In an email to supporters today Gary said:

Knollenberg is vulnerable and polling confirms that I am one of the strongest challengers anywhere in the country.

We need to support our progressive Democrats in winnable districts. There is no reason for MI-09 to elect a Republican for one more term. The district has been trending blue, however underperforming Democratic candidates have yet to seal the deal. Gary has a proven track record of supporting our values.

The AFL-CIO recently endorsed Peters in their earliest congressional endorsement ever. Peters was previously the Sierra Club’s “Environmentalist of the Year”, and the Michigan Trial Lawyers Association’s “Champion of Justice”.

I was at Yearly Kos with many of you, and Gary Peters. It isn’t just his positions on the issues which have convinced me to support him, he’s clearly on our side! It was the passion he puts into his views.

At Yearly Kos, he specifically wanted to go to the sessions on Iraq, Healthcare, and using new technology in campaigns. I watched him take pages of notes on the edge of his seat. I heard him tell a fellow blogger that he “couldn’t sleep at night” if he didn’t read the legislation before him, to know what he was voting on. We don’t need leaders voting the right way so they get re-elected…we need leaders who are honored to be our Representatives, ready to serve our country, and committed to moving our country forward.

Gary Peters is the kind of candidate we need to support.

There are just 5 days left before the September 30th FEC deadline! Show your support now…Contribute today at ActBlue!

• Learn more about the campaign at PetersForCongress.com
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(From the PetersForCongress blog, add it to your RSS reader!)

Today Peters For Congress is proud to announce the endorsement of the AFL-CIO!

The AFL-CIO represents over 1 million members in Michigan. This endorsement is unique because it is the earliest they have EVER endorsed a congressional candidate. It is hard to believe, but the election is still over a year away.

For a Michigan candidate, the support of unions, especially the AFL-CIO, dictates success in a primary and ultimately the general election. Working families in Michigan’s 9th are one step closer to having a Representative who will fight for their jobs and their rights.

With this early endorsement the AFL-CIO joins the majority of elected Democrats in MI-09, other labor unions and progressives organizations in uniting behind Peters for Congress.

Gary Peters has a strong record of supporting working families and core Democratic values. As a State Senator he helped write the bill that banned drilling in the Great Lakes, fighting the oil lobby every step of the way.

In an email to supporters, Peters says that since he has entered the race MI-09 has become one of the nation’s top targeted races. Polling data confirms that he is one of the strongest Democratic challengers in the country.

Learn more about Gary at Peters For Congress

Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer was asked “What makes Gary Peters qualified to face Joe Knollenberg?” in his latest video blog.

Jump the fold to read more. 

Mark is right when he says Gary will be an outstanding member of Congress. He certainly has the experience!

While in the Senate, he served as the ranking Democrat on the Finance, Education, Judiciary, Natural Resources, and Families and Mental Health Committees. – Peters For Congress

While at the lottery Gary not only increased sales by over $600 million, but did it while staying under budget by $13 million. It is this type of fiscal responsibility that will keep our country strong for future generations.

You can see why Joe Knollenberg is so nervous this time. He will be asking all his lobbyists, special interests, and donors to provide the $4 million his finance director thinks they'll need to beat Gary.

Clearly Mark Brewer's kind words and publicity on the Michigan Democratic Party website are a great sign for the Peters campaign. 

If the first day of the campaign is any indication, Gary Peters for Congress will make an impact.

• In the Detroit Free Press the DCCC says Knollenberg has “every reason to fear a strong candidacy from Gary Peters”
• Today’s Oakland Press quotes Gary as saying this race will be the “number one in the state”
• The Birmingham Eccentric highlights Gary’s goal to make health care affordable and available
• Crains Detroit quotes Gary saying he will “fight tooth and nail for every Michigan job”
• Talking Points Memo Election Central covered the announcement, highlighting Gary’s experience as a Lt. Commander and SEABEE combat specialist.
• mLIVE quotes Oakland County Democratic Party Chairman Dave Woodward calling Gary the “frontrunner”
• WLNS reminds readers Knollenberg is coming out of his toughest re-election ever
• Richard Owl Mirror’s blog compares Gary to Mr. Smith, and says we need to send him to Washington
• Michigan Class Notes is excited to see a strong challenger in the 9th
• The Detroit News mentions this race is going to be expensive, and that Knollenberg is hoping for a Democratic primary to waste resources
• So of course it is no wonder Gary raised over $2,000 in just one day at ActBlue
• Michigan Liberal,  Daily Kos,  MyDD, and Swing State Project readers all got to see the Peters Announcement

We will continue to introduce Gary to the blogosphere. If you would like to get involved in the campaign, please signup for email alerts at PetersForCongress.com. Show the DCCC that we need to pickup House seats in Michigan!

“A public servant with a record of fiscal discipline, Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) today announced he will run for Congress in 2008, pledging to fight outsourcing, help strengthen the economy and resolve the war in Iraq.” It’s official! Days after Joe Knollenberg made the announcement for him, Peters enters the race. It’s no wonder Knollenberg felt the need to attack. Gary has an extensive track record of fighting for progressive issues as a State Senator.

Peters will officially resign from his current position as Michigan’s lottery commissioner on Friday, August 10th. Under Peters, the lottery has come in $13 million under budget while generating record profits. When he was a State Senator, he returned an entire years worth of office expenses back to the state treasury! Gary will bring fiscal responsibility to Congress.

“Knollenberg has allowed the failed Bush agenda to go on while our brave men and women are getting shipped to Iraq and good-paying Michigan jobs are getting outsourced to other countries. -Gary Peters”

Gary gets it. Knollenberg has a terrible record on veteran’s issues, highlighted by the DCCC campaign last July. Peters will fight to protect our soldiers and our jobs. Knollenberg has been a rubber stamp for a failing administration. The choice is clear for 9th district voters.

9th District elected Democrats came out strong in support of Peters. Look at this list of endorsements. Our local leaders are excited to get behind an experienced legislator, who is ready to fight Knollenberg on the campaign trail and represent Oakland County in the People’s House.

The district is ripe for change, and Gary is the candidate to deliver. The Democratic base vote in the 9th district was above 50%. This is a winnable district. Joe Knollenberg is out of touch with 9th district voters on issues such as stem cell research, protecting the middle class, the importance of Social Security, and helping to make college education affordable. Gary Peters will continue his fight for progressive interests?Joe Knollenberg protects Washington special interests.  Let’s send a Lieutenant Commander to Congress to fight for us.

www.PetersForCongress.com

Learn more about Gary at his website, signup to receive email updates, and contribute at ActBlue!

By: Jordan Wells and Kevin Hrit – (Disclosure: Jordan worked as Nancy Skinner’s Online Outreach Organizer in 2006. Kevin worked as Nancy Skinner’s Field Director in 2006, and crunched numbers for Practical Political Consulting in Lansing.)

Michigan’s 9th Congressional District will be one of the top targeted races for 2008. The DCCC has already aired ads exposing Knollenberg’s awful record on veterans. Knollenberg is under fire from citizen action groups, and has been constantly bashed in letters to the editor throughout the district. Knollenberg is beatable. He narrowly won the ’06 election with 51% of the vote, and has 15% less money now than he did this time that cycle.

It appears the 9th District has undergone a sudden blue trend. However the Democratic base in the district has been growing steadily for the last eight years. Despite the growing Democratic base, Joe Knollenberg continues to cruise to electoral success versus weak challengers.

Jump below the fold for an extremely detailed analysis of the numbers from the 9th District.

In 2002 David Fink performed 2.21% below the Democratic base, with 39.89% of the vote, despite raising 1.2 million and contributing 1.2 million of his own.  In 2004 Steve Reifman performed 6.80% below the Democratic base, with 39.54% of the vote. In 2006 Nancy Skinner performed 4.28% below the Democratic base, with 46.21% of the vote. The Democratic base in 2006 was 50.49% (in ’02 it was 42.19%, in ’04 46.34%).

Clearly the 9th District is more competitive than the election results make it appear, which is great news given Knollenberg’s low vote totals in 2006. Democratic candidates in the 9th have failed to win over independent voters and even win over all Democratic voters. This has been due to a lack of fundraising, lack of connection with voters in the district, and lack of clear understanding of the 9th district.

Currently the two potential contenders for the 9th District nomination are Nancy Skinner and Gary Peters. Nancy ran for the 9th in 2006. Gary’s last election was 2002 when he ran for Attorney General.

In the 2002 Attorney General race, Gary Peters performed at or above the Democratic base in 72% of 9th district precincts (234 out of 325). This certainly puts the candidate’s performance in perspective. While losing by 4,677 votes in Bloomfield Township, Peters actually performed above base in all 36 precincts of the township. In his former home city of Rochester Hills, he outperformed base by 4.66%, in 30 of 32 precincts.  Despite losing the AG race Peters out performed the Democratic base in 72% of the 9th District. Consider that this is a statewide election, and each candidate did not necessarily concentrate on persuading 9th District voters. Peters was above base in 19 of 22 jurisdictions, and just slightly under base in the other 3 (within 2.2%).

Let’s look at Peters’ 1998 State Senate campaign, where he could campaign locally. In this election Peters performed at or above base in 99% of the precincts (155 of 156 precincts).  It is worth noting that in his run for State Senate in 1994, he won a five way primary with 51% of the votes, despite facing formidable challenges from Democratic contenders in a district stretching from Pontiac down through Southfield.  Then went on to win his first term in the Senate.

In 2004 Steve Reifman performed 6.80% below the Democratic base, taking 39.54% of the vote. These results have negatively effected the perception of our district and promoted the idea that no Democrat could win there.

In 2006 Nancy Skinner performed 4.28% below the Democratic base, with 46.21% of the vote. She only performed over base in 18 precincts out of 319 precincts (over base in 5.64%) and only 1 jurisdiction.

In 2004 Nancy also ran for Senate in Illinois. She lost in the primary (to Barack Obama), and as Kevin can tell you, being a first time candidate is really tough.

In Royal Oak City, where Nancy grew up, she performed 4.00% below base. In Birmingham, where the campaign office was located, where her dad coached high school football and where she lived during the campaign, she still performed 0.38% below base.

Gary Peters strong performances are due to the stances he has taken. He was a leader in the fight to protect Great Lakes water, earning him the Sierra Club's Environmentalist of the Year Award. Peters was the Democratic Caucus Chair in the State Senate, and ranking member on more policy committees than any other Senator. You can read more about Gary's biography at this profile article about him in the Michigan Bar Journal.

Nancy Skinner's support comes from her time on a radio talk show in the district. She promoted sustainable living, and worked on the Chicago Climate Exchange. She won a medal from working with the Clinton administration in 1993 for her efforts in rebuilding flood ravaged communities with sustainable building techniques on the Mississippi river delta. You can read more about Nancy on her bio page from her campaign website.

Neither candidate has filed with the FEC. Nancy Skinner's federal committee from 2006 remains open with $18,000+…although she has not filed any of the required reports for 2007. Gary Peters maintains a State Leadership PAC with $20,000+ (as of July '07) which can not be spent on a federal campaign, although he has been supportive of the State and County Party and candidates.

 

CRITICAL NUMBERS

98 Base 14SD : 61.08% 

98 Peters :.65.48% 

98 Peters Performance v. Base : +4.40

02 Base : 42.19% 

02 Fink : 39.89%

02 Fink Performance v. Base : -2.29%

02 Peters : 45.52%

02 Peters Performance v. Base : +3.33%

04 Base : 46.34%

04 Reifman : 39.54%

04 Reifman Performance v. Base : -6.80%

06 Base : 50.49% 

06 Skinner : 46.21%

06 Skinner Performance v. Base : -4.28%

 

Here are the numbers and facts, please draw your own conclusions.

According to The Hill, the DCCC has targeted 14 Republican incumbents for web/phone/radio hits starting on Monday. Here’s the full list, including each district’s Presidential vote in the last two cycles:

State	CD	Incumbent	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
AK	AL	Young	36	61	28	59
CO	4	Musgrave	41	58	37	57
IL	10	Kirk	53	47	51	47
MI	9	Knollenberg	49	51	47	51
MO	6	Graves	42	57	44	53
NC	8	Hayes	45	54	46	54
NJ	7	Ferguson	47	53	48	49
NM	1	Wilson	51	48	48	47
NV	3	Porter	49	50	49	48
NY	25	Walsh	50	48	51	45
NY	29	Kuhl	42	56	43	53
PA	3	English	47	53	47	51
VA	2	Drake	42	58	43	55
WV	2	Capito	42	57	44	54

However, only seven districts (NC-08, MI-09, AK-AL, NV-03, NY-25, WV-02 and MO-06) are getting the radio ads. But this is a good indicator, perhaps, of the districts that the DCCC plans to aggressively contest next year. While many of these look tough, dynamite candidates in State Senator John Unger and Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (MO-06) could very well be map changers.

This is where I get to be wrong. I have found six Democratic Candidates who are running good campaigns in the right environments who are currently not listed on any list of competitive races in the country by any professional prognosticators. . So here is where I go out on a limb.  All of these candidates will get 40%, most will get 45% and one will win.  This is not to rule out the possibility of other strange upsets.  But theses six campaigns have a real shot at riding a wave.

Michigan 9th
This is one of the serious under covered race in a district where it should be treated with greater respect.  This is a district that gave George Bush a whopping and impressive 51% of the vote in 2004.  While the Democrats didn’t get the most impressive nominee in Nancy Skinner, they did get a feisty one.  The finance report tells a good story. Incumbent Congressman Joe Knollenberg has spent more money, almost 2.5 million dollars, more then he has raised this cycle. He also faced a primary from a pro-choice Republican Women who got 30% against him. Now it is true that Michigan has open voting but this is still a sign.  Nancy Skinner is a progressive talk radio host, so she can deal with press. I also believe that in the end both Michigan Gov and Senate will break for us by about giving Nancy a chance at coattails, she has raised a respectable if not impressive 330,000 dollars.  Her website is  http://nancyskinner….
Check her out.

Minnesota 2nd
I just refuse to give up on Coleen Rowley. She was named Time Woman of the Year. Her campaign has been considered Lackluster, but Coleen has slowly clawed her way back into this race. We will benefit from a massive victory in the Senate Race and also hopefully the Governor’s race.  Her opponent Incumbent John Kline is also not loved.  He only ran slight ahead of The President in his district and only got 57% not terrible but also not wonderful. The only polling out is Survey USA that shows Coleen in striking distance 50-42. She has a real shot. Go Coleen.
On web http://www.coleenrow…

Ohio 3rd
  This is quite possibly the least covered house race that has any money be spent at all. Before I get to the specifics of the race let me be clear the key thing that this race has going for it is Ohio. The Republican in Ohio seem to be collapsing at an astonishing rate. This means that upsets just become more likely across the board. I point therefore to Ohio’s 3rd district. This is a surprise district because the Democratic Candidate was forced to drop in late August. What is surprising is that this caused the Democrats to have an improved candidate overall.  Dick Chema is such a candidate. He was a prosecutor before he decided to run for Congress and has put together both acceptable amounts of money and strong support from the politicians in the district. This district only gave George Bush 54%. It is clearly a long shot a Mike Turner has no real fireable except being a Republican, in Ohio that might just be enough.  It is clearly possible. On  the web
http://www.chemaforc…

Montana At Large
The Montana miracle  will be tested in this race. Jon Tester has run an awesome campaign and that will hopefully benefit Democratic Nominee Monica Lindeen. She has a run a good if under covered campaign. Remember that even while Schweitzer was winning by a relatively small amount we won almost all Statewide offices and the Legislature. I think it will be closer with a real chance Monica pulls it off. Again the incumbent Dennis Rehberg hasn’t  real made any fatal mistakes. The question is while tossing out Burns will they also toss Rehberg. There is reason for hope.
On Web http://www.lindeen.n…

NJ 5
If there is a greater example of Congressman who is just out step with the view of his constituents, it  is Scott Garrett. He was of the most Conservative Members in the House Voting against Katrina Aid and  Renewing the Voting  Rights act. The district did go 57% for George Bush but they just aren’t this Conservative. Paul Aronsohn  is a good candidate who has raised a decent amount of money with a decent bio and has been working hard.  He also has a lot of Clinton Alumni helping him. This one could be the biggest surprise if the district would just figure out how Conservative Garrett really is.
http://www.paularons…

IL 11
John Pavich was highly touted and then he went away, we will see if he comes back on election night.  It is only a 53%  Bush district and Illinios has trended very Democratic.  Pavich has also picked up a few newspapers and the Chicago Tribune stayed Neutral.  Incumbent Jerry Weller is likely to hold. But John Pavich has kept it close and I like it is an upset.
On Web http://www.pavichfor…

There you have it. Six races no one has on their list that just might flip. I stand by the prediction. Everyone gets 40 most get 45 and  one will win.  I am either a prophet or a moron we found out in about 40 hours.