If you were to ask me, I’d point to Richard Burr as the Republicans’ most endangered incumbent Senator in 2010. He’s kind of a back-bench non-entity up for his first re-election, he made it into office in a strongly Republican year (2004) against an underwhelming opponent (Erskine Bowles), and North Carolina underwent a pretty dramatic blue shift in 2008, although that may dissipate a bit by 2010.
So it’s nice to have some polling data to support my intuition. Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s Attorney General who was just re-elected by a convincing margin, polls very well against Burr, losing by only two points. R2K also tests Richard Moore, the former Treasurer who lost the 2008 gubernatorial primary to then-Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, who doesn’t poll quite as well (perhaps he’s still tarnished from that acrimonious primary). However, six points back from an incumbent two years out is still a fairly good place to be, too.
Burr’s favorables are only 47 favorable/46 unfavorable, while Cooper’s are 41/21 and Moore is at 37/27, which looks especially nice for Cooper. While media speculation tends to focus on Cooper, it’s not entirely sure whether Cooper will get into the race, and there are a few other top-tier Dems seemingly mulling the race (Rep. Brad Miller comes to mind, as well as Rep. Heath Shuler). But this race easily looks to be a Tossup with Cooper in it (and probably even with Moore or Miller instead).
On national maps North Carolina is often colored red. We havent voted for a Democrat for the White House since Carter in 1976. But that might be changing.
In a new poll by Public Policy Polling, when asked who they would vote for in the 2008 Presidential election, 42 percent of voters said a Republican. But, in a huge surprise, 47 percent of voters said a Democrat.
PPP has been doing a lot of tracking polls lately, and I have a large amount of respect for them and their sister company, On Point Polling. This poll was done with 606 voters. The way PPP does their sampling, these were people who will be voting in 2008.
This poll(PDF) has some incredibly interesting results within it. The question that will get the most media attention is the matchup question between Elizabeth Dole and Roy Cooper. In that race, Dole is under 50 percent, and has a lead of 46 to 36. That means that so far Dole has polled at 45 and 44 against 2 Democratic Congressman, 40 percent against our governor, and 46 percent against our Attorney General.
She is in a ton of trouble.
Her approval rating is plus 4, 45% to 41%. President Bush’s numbers are also ugly, with a negative 11 rating.
The poll also asked if people would be more or less likely to vote Democratic based upon specific nominees. Surprisingly for me, Hillary does a lot better on this question that I would have expected. The details though are not all that surprising. Obama would give huge motivation to black voters, and Hillary is hated by Republicans. Nothing really shocking.
This poll also contained some very interesting crosstabs. For instance, we are home to both Ft Bragg and Camp Lejeune, among other bases. Both of these massive installations are within the 910 area code. In that area code, Bush’s approval rating is 47 to 45 (plus 2). On the generic ballot, a Democratic Presidential candidate leads 46 to 42. The best part is that those numbers are before we start showing ads like this for the third Senator from Virginia.
In addition to this poll, a new poll by Conservative, Non Partisan Republican think tank Civitas shows even worse results for Bush and national Republicans. I take all of their results with a grain of salt, but their poll showed Bush with a 39 percent approval rating, with 57 percent disapproving (43% strongly disapprove). Even more telling is their question about the surge strategy:
Do you think the President’s new strategy in Iraq along with the troop surge is:
Improving the Situation 19%
Not making much difference 34%
Making things worse 36%
That is right. In “Red” North Carolina, the most military friendly state in the country, 70% of voters think the surge is either useless or counterproductive.
Dole has been an unapologetic supporter of Bush. In fact, in February there was an article in the Charlotte Observer talking about how she was taking a stand separate from most of her fellow NC Republicans to support the surge loudly in public. Sadly, I cant find that article without paying big bucks for it.
Add on top of all of these polls an article written by Stuart Rothenberg prior to these results about Texas and North Carolina.
In contrast, Democrats have won the past four gubernatorial elections in North Carolina, and the party last won a Senate seat in 1998. While Republicans hold all of the most high-profile statewide offices in Texas, Democrats hold the top offices in North Carolina. And while Republicans hold both chambers of the Texas state Legislature, Democrats have solid majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature.
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On the other hand, Rep. Brad Miller and North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper reportedly are considering a challenge to Dole, and Tar Heel State Democrats are in a far stronger position to recruit a candidate against the Republican Senator.
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Dole isn’t much more vulnerable until Democrats get a formidable candidate in the race, but if and when they do, the state’s dynamics, at the very least, offer them a scenario for success.
North Carolina, therefore, bears watching.
In light of all the polling that we have seen in this race, I would say Rothenberg’s analysis is actually pessimistic. But, he is obviously correct in saying that we need a top tier challenger. I personally want to see Brad Miller take up the banner. But no matter who runs she is vulnerable.
For more info on this race, and on a Brad candidacy please visit this website.
If Brad Miller runs for the Senate, he may have some company.
Many “Democrats in North Carolina and Washington, D.C., are beginning to zero in on state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) as a particularly strong pick” to challenge Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) and “are urging him to enter the race,” according to Roll Call.
Other possibilities include Rep. Brad Miller, Gov. Mike Easley, former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Hugh Shelton, state Sen. Kay Hagan and state Rep. Grier Martin — “though Easley is unlikely to run.”
This may be the best option as I do not know how easy or difficult it will be to hold Miller’s seat should he be nominated against Dole. Anyone from North Carolina want to comment.