With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.
I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.
Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| CA-03 |
Dan Lungren |
37.72% |
39.63% |
R+1.91 |
O+0.5 |
| CA-24 |
Elton Gallegly |
35.84% |
41.88% |
R+6.04 |
O+2.8 |
| CA-25 |
Buck McKeon |
37.72% |
39.35% |
R+1.63 |
O+1.1 |
| CA-26 |
David Dreier |
35.64% |
40.56% |
R+4.92 |
O+4.0 |
| CA-44 |
Ken Calvert |
34.70% |
42.38% |
R+7.68 |
O+0.9 |
| CA-45 |
Mary Bono Mack |
37.97% |
41.96% |
R+3.99 |
O+4.6 |
| CA-48 |
John Campbell |
29.41% |
44.87% |
R+15.46 |
O+0.7 |
| CA-50 |
Brian Bilbray |
31.38% |
40.36% |
R+8.98 |
O+4.2 |
Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-04 |
Sam Aanestad |
33.05% |
44.10% |
R+11.05 |
M+11.8 |
| SD-12 |
Jeff Denham |
47.46% |
33.09% |
D+14.37 |
O+17.6 |
| SD-18 |
Roy Ashburn |
31.91% |
47.58% |
R+15.67 |
M+23.1 |
| SD-36 |
Dennis Hollingsworth |
28.94% |
46.13% |
R+17.19 |
M+14.2 |
Democrats (5)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-16 |
Dean Florez |
49.61% |
33.15% |
D+16.46 |
O+19.5 |
| SD-22 |
Gilbert Cedillo |
58.98% |
14.74% |
D+44.24 |
O+58.7 |
| SD-24 |
Gloria Romero |
53.62% |
21.13% |
D+32.49 |
O+41.3 |
| SD-34 |
Lou Correa |
42.82% |
33.58% |
D+9.24 |
O+16.8 |
| SD-40 |
Denise Ducheny |
46.59% |
29.65% |
D+16.94 |
O+25.7 |
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-03 |
Dan Logue |
34.81% |
40.15% |
R+5.34 |
M+1.6 |
| AD-05 |
Roger Niello |
37.93% |
38.80% |
R+0.87 |
O+4.2 |
| AD-25 |
Tom Berryhill |
36.84% |
42.30% |
R+5.46 |
M+7.9 |
| AD-26 |
Bill Berryhill |
42.04% |
39.22% |
D+2.82 |
O+4.4 |
| AD-30 |
Danny Gilmore |
46.31% |
36.66% |
D+9.65 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-33 |
Sam Blakeslee |
35.91% |
40.77% |
R+4.86 |
O+1.4 |
| AD-36 |
Steve Knight |
39.56% |
38.65% |
D+0.91 |
O+0.8 |
| AD-37 |
Audra Strickland |
35.86% |
41.40% |
R+5.54 |
O+3.7 |
| AD-38 |
Cameron Smyth |
36.84% |
40.02% |
R+3.18 |
O+4.9 |
| AD-63 |
Bill Emmerson |
37.90% |
40.35% |
R+2.45 |
O+4.1 |
| AD-64 |
Brian Nestande |
36.11% |
41.83% |
R+5.72 |
O+1.8 |
| AD-65 |
Paul Cook |
37.14% |
41.08% |
R+3.94 |
M+4.1 |
| AD-68 |
Van Tran |
32.82% |
41.25% |
R+8.43 |
M+2.9 |
| AD-70 |
Chuck DeVore |
30.19% |
43.49% |
R+13.30 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-74 |
Martin Garrick |
30.89% |
41.68% |
R+10.79 |
O+2.2 |
| AD-75 |
Nathan Fletcher |
30.71% |
39.88% |
R+9.17 |
O+4.1 |
Democrats (15)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-07 |
Noreen Evans |
52.81% |
23.72% |
D+29.09 |
O+43.3 |
| AD-09 |
Dave Jones |
56.64% |
18.71% |
D+37.93 |
O+49.0 |
| AD-10 |
Alyson Huber |
39.32% |
39.39% |
R+0.07 |
O+4.0 |
| AD-11 |
Tom Torlakson |
54.23% |
22.06% |
D+32.17 |
O+41.2 |
| AD-15 |
Joan Buchanan |
40.60% |
36.09% |
D+4.51 |
O+16.9 |
| AD-20 |
Alberto Torrico |
48.65% |
20.17% |
D+18.48 |
O+42.3 |
| AD-21 |
Ira Ruskin |
47.22% |
26.83% |
D+20.39 |
O+45.8 |
| AD-23 |
Joe Coto |
51.28% |
18.96% |
D+32.32 |
O+44.4 |
| AD-31 |
Juan Arambula |
49.07% |
33.84% |
D+15.23 |
O+26.1 |
| AD-35 |
Pedro Nava |
48.24% |
27.95% |
D+20.29 |
O+35.6 |
| AD-47 |
Karen Bass |
64.93% |
11.27% |
D+53.66 |
O+71.9 |
| AD-50 |
Hector De La Torre |
61.92% |
16.21% |
D+45.71 |
O+55.9 |
| AD-76 |
Lori Saldaña |
41.96% |
26.89% |
D+15.07 |
O+34.4 |
| AD-78 |
Martin Block |
43.09% |
31.54% |
D+11.55 |
O+21.8 |
| AD-80 |
Manuel Perez |
45.33% |
36.49% |
D+8.84 |
O+20.7 |
In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:
(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70
(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75
(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25
(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65
(V) Other open seat: 68
