Well we’ll have Colorado Governor numbers out [today] and here’s a little preview – John Hickenlooper’s net favorability is 36 points better than Bill Ritter’s net approval. As you can imagine that makes Hickenlooper just a little more competitive in the horse race.
Tag: IL-Sen
SSP Daily Digest: 3/4 (Afternoon Edition)
• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln is up with her first ad, as she runs for the Republican nomination for the Senate race. Wait… what? She’s running as a Democrat? Hmmm, that’s not what her ad says, as it’s a list of every which way she’s bucked the Democratic party line in the last year (and closing by saying “I don’t answer to my party, I answer to Arkansas”). That’d make sense if she were running in the general election, but there’s a little matter of her having to get out of the primary first… Meanwhile, the base continues to abandon Lincoln; today it was EMILY’s List, who say they won’t be lifting a finger to help Lincoln. She may still get a lifeline from Bill Clinton, though, who’s continuing to back her. And Bill Halter better be committed to seeing this Senate primary thing through, because state Sen. Shane Broadway just filed to run to keep the Lt. Governor spot in Democratic hands.
• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Republican polling firm Magellan (apparently not working on behalf of any candidates) issued more polls of the two Republican primaries in California. The polls are pretty much in line with what everyone else is seeing: on the Senate side, Tom Campbell leads at 33, followed by Carly Fiorina at 20 and Chuck DeVore at least cracking double-digits at 11. For the gubernatorial race, Meg Whitman is cruising, beating Steve Poizner 63-12.
• CT-Sen: When it comes to the Connecticut senate race, Dick Blumenthal is the Superfly TNT. Hell, he’s the Guns of the Navarone. In fact, he lays a massive mushroom cloud on Linda McMahon (60-31), Rob Simmons (58-32) and Peter Schiff (57-27) alike — and yes, this is according to Rasmussen. (D)
• IL-Sen: In an interview with the Chicago Tribune’s editorial board, Alexi Giannoulias said he believes his family’s bank is likely to get EATED (as Atrios would say) by the FDIC in the coming months. Perhaps worse, the Trib says that Giannoulias isn’t being forthcoming about what he knew about the bank’s loans to convicted bookmaker and pimp (i.e. mobster) Michael “Jaws” Giorango. Ugh. (D)
• KY-Sen: If the Dems are seeing a bit of an uptick in selected polls lately, they aren’t seeing it in Kentucky yet, at least not if Rasmussen has anything to say about it. Rand Paul leads Jack Conway 46-38 and Dan Mongiardo 49-35, while Trey Grayson leads Conway 45-35 and Mongiardo 44-37. Not much change in the trendlines, except for, oddly, Mongiardo’s standing vis-à-vis Grayson improves while Conway’s slips. Meanwhile, Conway is hitting the airwaves with a new TV spot, wisely taking Jim Bunning’s one-man crusade against unemployed people and hanging it around the necks of Paul and Grayson.
• NJ-Sen: Apparently the 2010 elections are just too boring. Farleigh Dickinson University tested Sen. Bob Menendez versus his 2006 opponent, Tom Kean, Jr., finding a tie (39-38 for Kean, with 17% undecided). Seriously, though, testing horserace numbers this far out just seems silly. Can you imagine what similar polls would have shown for the GOP in 2004? (D)
• NV-Sen: Jon Ralston sits down for a chat with erstwhile Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian, a.k.a. the only man who can inadvertently save Harry Reid. Ashjian, a wealthy contractor (whose company has more than its share of complaints and liens), plans to fund his own way, and discounts claims that he’s somehow being put up to it by the Reid camp as a vote-splitter.
• NY-Sen-B: Sigh, what could have been… Harold Ford Jr. met with Karl Rove in 2004 to discuss the possibility of running for Senate in Tennessee in 2006… as a Republican. Ford isn’t denying the meeting, but, in his, um, defense? says that it was Rove’s idea.
• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett keeps on being a punching bag for the GOP’s right wing, and today the Club for Growth weighed in with an anti-Bennett ad, airing on (where else?) the Fox News Channel in Utah. It’s targeted purely at state GOP insiders, urging them to send anti-Bennett delegates to the state nominating convention. The CfG hasn’t settled on one particular candidate they’re for; all they know is who they’re against.
• GA-Gov: PPP follows up its Georgia general election numbers from yesterday with a look at the Republican gubernatorial primary. (The Democratic primary seems to look like an adequately foregone conclusion to them.) No surprises: Insurance Comm. John Oxendine leads at 27, followed by Karen Handel at 19, Nathan Deal at 13, Austin Scott and Eric Johnson at 3, and Jeff Chapman and Ray McBerry at 2.
• MD-Gov: There’s been lots of focus on the leaked RNC strategy document today, mostly for its rather shameless descriptions of its fundraising plans. There are a few noteworthy strategic items here, though — maybe most interestingly, they’ve totally left Michael Steele’s home state of Maryland off the list of gubernatorial races they’re pushing. It remains to be seen whether it’s because Bob Ehrlich isn’t getting in after all, they don’t think he has a ghost of a chance, or just general RNC bungling. (Also interesting: on the Senate side, they’re even targeting Charles Schumer, but they’ve left off Patty Murray, which may suggest it isn’t getting any better for the GOP than Don Benton in Washington.)
• MI-Gov: Two endorsements in the pipeline in the Michigan gubernatorial race. Mike Huckabee weighed in on the GOP side, picking AG Mike Cox, calling him the “pro-life, pro-gun” candidate over the probably more right-wing Rep. Peter Hoekstra. (I’m not sure how much pull Huckabee has in Michigan. As for me, I’m waiting to see who Ted Nugent endorses.) On the Dem side, this is still purely rumor, but the word is that the United Auto Workers plan to endorse Lansing mayor Virg Bernero (who showed he had their backs with his passionate televised defenses of the auto bailout). The stamp of the state’s most powerful union would go a long way toward uniting union backing behind one Dem.
• NY-Gov: The clock seems to be ticking even louder for David Paterson, as today one of his top aides, spokesperson Peter Kauffmann, resigned and distanced himself. Kauffmann said that, in light of the ethics ruling about the World Series tickets, he could no longer “in good conscience continue.”
• OH-Gov, OH-01: VPOTUS Watch: Joey Joe Joe Biden Shabadoo will visit Cleveland on March 15 to do a fundraiser for Gov. Ted Strickland. He’ll also be doing a separate event for Rep. Steve Driehaus. (D)
• AR-01: The fields for both sides in the open seat left behind by Rep. Marion Berry are slow to take shape, but it looks like the Democrats found a decent-sounding candidate who can bring some of his own money with him. Terry Green, an orthopedic surgeon with his own practice, has filed, sounding some populist notes in his first comments to the press.
• IL-08: Ah, the party of fiscal responsibility. Joe Walsh, the GOP’s candidate in the 8th, stopped making mortgage payments on his Evanston condominium in May 2009 and lost it to foreclosure in October. Putting a positive spin on it, Walsh says “This experience helped me gain a better appreciation for the very real economic anxieties felt by 8th District families.”
• MI-03: Here’s a positive development: Democrats are actually lining up to contest the R+6 open seat in Grand Rapids left behind by retiring GOP Rep. Vern Ehlers. Former Kent Co. Commissioner Paul Mayhue is about to enter the Dem field, where he’ll join attorney Patrick Miles.
• MI-06: Ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk, who was badly beaten by Carl Levin in 2008’s Senate race, is now setting his sights on knocking off incumbent Rep. Fred Upton in the Republican primary. Hoogendyk, who has yet to make a decision on the race, sent out an email to supporters blasting Upton for his votes in favor of TARP, No Child Left Behind, and S-CHIP. Upton’s district has an even PVI, and went for Bush twice by seven-point margins before Obama won the district by a comfy 54-45 spread in ’08. (J)
• NH-01: A run in the 1st by RNC committee member Sean Mahoney is now looking much likelier, even though he’d scoped out the race and decided against it last year. Last year, it was looking like former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta had the nomination to himself, but Guinta’s bad fundraising and bad press have lured a few other contenders into the GOP field.
• NY-15: With Charlie Rangel’s position looking increasingly precarious, CQ takes a look at some possible names who might replace him, should he decide not to seek another term (including state Sen. Bill Perkins, Assemblymen Keith Wright and Adriano Espaillat, and city councilors Inez Dickens and Robert Jackson). He already has a few primary challengers – former aide Vincent Morgan and possibly Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV. Meanwhile, the chairmanship of Rangel’s Ways & Means Committee has hopscotched around in the last few days, to California’s Pete Stark and today to the less-controversial Michigan’s Sander Levin. The chair of this powerful committee (which oversees tax laws) tends to rake in tons of campaign contributions – and dole them out to fellow caucus members, so it’s worth keeping an eye on who actually replaces Rangel on a permanent basis. (This is also why so many peeps have returned money to Rangel – because he’s given out so much.) (D)
• New York: Could he really be eyeing a comeback? According to Time Magazine, Eliot Spitzer is “bored out of his mind” these days, but also says he doesn’t want to subject his family to the inevitable ugliness that would ensue if he ran for something again. Meanwhile, former Spitzer confidante Lloyd Constantine, the man Spitzer called right before the news of his involvement with prostitutes broke, has turned on his former mentee with a new tell-all book. The stars are definitely not aligned for Spitz, if they ever were. (D)
• Maps: You know you love them (otherwise you wouldn’t be at SSP). And jeffmd has a whole new bunch of ’em, looking at the results of the Texas Republican gubernatorial primary and how they might translate into the general.
• Healthcare: The Wall Street Journal has a chart laying out how members of the House might vote on the next iteration of the healthcare reform bill, listing public statements (if any) they’ve made since the last vote. This really should be in wiki form, though – for instance, they don’t have Mike Arcuri’s remarks (see Morning Digest). (D)
• Redistricting: The NYT takes a look at the people who applied for a spot on California’s state legislative redistricting commission. Fourteen spots have been set aside for ordinary citizens… and 31,000 people (including probably at least a few SSPers!) applied. Progress Illinois also has a detailed look today at the new proposals underway to make the redistricting process fairer (or at least less random).
• Blogosphere: Finally, we’re sad to see one of our favorite blogs apparently calling it quits. Over the last two years, Campaign Diaries became a must-read, both for insightful analysis and for making sure that no comings-and-goings in any races fell through the cracks. We wish Taniel well in his next endeavors.
IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Nice Leads for Giannoulias, Quinn
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/22-24, likely voters, 1/26-28/2009 in parentheses):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 43 (38)
Mark Kirk (R): 36 (30)
Undecided: 19 (32)Pat Quinn (D-inc): 47
Bill Brady (R): 32
Undecided: 20Pat Quinn (D-inc): 46
Kirk Dillard (R): 35
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4%)
Here are surprisingly good numbers all around for the Democrats who prevailed in this month’s primary election: incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, and state Treasurer and Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. Giannoulias holds a 7-point lead over Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, while Quinn has is in the double digits against both his potential opponents. State Sen. Bill Brady has a lead of several hundred votes in the primary count, but it’ll be at least a week before we know anything official — and we should be glad about Brady, as the socially conservative, downstate Brady fares significantly worse than the moderate, suburban state Sen. Kirk Dillard.
Taking all the post-primary Senate polls together, you get a picture of a closer race (GQR gave Alexi a 4-point lead, Rasmussen gives Kirk a 6-point lead, and a Kirk internal puts him up by a not-too-plausible 12), but given that pundits were preparing the fork to stick in Giannoulias after he weathered pre-primary attacks on his relationship with his family’s bank, he looks to be in decent shape. The only other post-primary poll of IL-Gov, from Victory Research, also gave Quinn leads (with a 9-point edge over Brady), so Quinn may also have survived the worst of it, in terms of his nasty primary with Dan Hynes. (Although current fighting over tax increases, as well as possible further deterioration in the local economy, could take its toll on him.)
SSP Daily Digest: 2/17
• AZ-Sen: Ex-Rep. and FreedomWorks honcho Dick Armey decided not to endorse in the Arizona Senate GOP primary, which may be good news! for John McCain, seeing as how Armey (currently trying to manage the herd of cats that are the teabaggers) lines up stylistically more with Hayworth. Armey apparently doesn’t think much of Hayworth at a personal level, though, as he followed up with a postscript referring to Hayworth’s “fairly short, undistinguished congressional career.” McCain did bag a few more endorsements from two guys who served with Hayworth in the House in the 90s: Jim Kolbe and Matt Salmon. McCain himself is off campaigning in support of Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire today, making a little clearer where the ideological fault lines lie in that primary.
• IL-Sen: The Alexi Giannoulias camp has released another internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, which has the Democratic state treasurer leading Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, 49-45. That margin is very consistent with GQR’s last couple polls prior to the primary, which would suggest that Giannoulias weathered the nasty primary all right (although, of course, it doesn’t jibe with how Rasmussen sees the race; they most recently gave Kirk a 46-40 lead).
• KY-Sen: Another internal poll, this one from Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo, by way of Garin Hart Yang. It gives Mongo a mondo edge over AG Jack Conway in the Democratic Senate primary, 43-25. No numbers are given for the general election, though.
• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s release for their newest NC-Sen poll is titled “Same Old Story in Senate race,” and that pretty much sums it up. Richard Burr is still sitting on mediocre approvals and high unknowns (35/35), but thanks to the national environment and second-tier Democratic challengers, he’s still looking to survive in November. He leads SoS Elaine Marshall 43-33, ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham 44-32, and attorney Kenneth Lewis 44-31. “Generic Democrat” loses to Burr 42-35 (which was 45-36 a month ago).
• AK-Gov: Here’s a bit of a surprise out of Alaska, where appointed Gov. Sean Parnell is somewhat lagging his most prominent GOP primary opponent, former state House speaker Ralph Samuels, on the fundraising front. Parnell still brought in a little more last year ($215K to Samuels’ $179K) but Samuels raised all of his money only in December, with a lot of Samuels’ money coming from in-state big-money real estate and mining interests. Former state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz leads fundraising efforts in the three-candidate Democratic field.
• CA-Gov: I don’t know how many times Dianne Feinstein has said that she isn’t running for Governor, but she said it again yesterday. This time it seems to be truly official and she seems to be getting it to stick.
• IL-Gov: State Sen. Kirk Dillard seems to have closed the gap in the Illinois GOP primary, with the count of absentee and provisional ballots, but it’s not clear whether it’ll be enough to turn it around, or even enough to merit a recount. Dillard says he cut Bill Brady’s 420-vote margin “in half,” but he’d previously said he wouldn’t look into a recount unless he was within 100 votes. (You do the math.) There’s no recount required by law in Illinois regardless of the margin, so it’s up to Dillard.
• KS-Gov: State Sen. Tom Holland confirmed that he’s in the Kansas gubernatorial race, filling a glaring hole that has bedeviled Kansas Democrats for a year. He’ll still be a long shot against retiring Sen. Sam Brownback, but Holland has proven resilient in beating Republicans in the rural/exurban turf between Kansas City and Lawrence.
• NV-Gov: The Nevada Education Association (the teacher’s union) commissioned a poll, by Grove Insight, that focused mostly on policy questions but also asked about the gubernatorial race. In line with other pollsters, they find Democratic Clark Co. Commissioner Rory Reid trailing Republican former AG Brian Sandoval 44-35, but whomping Republican incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons 49-33. Time for the Dems to start running pro-Gibbons ads?
• NY-Gov: This is way too meta, where a non-story becomes a story simply by virtue of its non-story-ness. Nevertheless, that promised scandal that was about to erupt about David Paterson has turned out to be pretty much a non-issue: it concerns his advisor (or body man, really) David Johnson, who it turns out has a nasty-sounding rap sheet from his distant past.
• RI-Gov: There’s a whole new centrist party in Rhode Island, the Moderate Party. And despite the fact that there’s already a prominent centrist independent running in the governor’s race (Lincoln Chafee), somehow the two aren’t getting together. Instead, the Moderate Party just announced it’s running its own centrist independent, party founder Kenneth Block. (Weirdly, he’s running instead of former US Attorney Robert Corrente, who’s becoming the new party chair in Block’s absence. Corrente might have the name rec to actually make an impression in the race.) If centrist state treasurer Frank Caprio winds up the Dem nominee, I have no idea how the votes will split — we’ll just have a whole buncha moderates trying to out-moderate each other.
• TX-Gov: Kay Bailey Hutchison has gotten the lion’s share of the establishment endorsements in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Texas, but Rick Perry landed a big name: former Gov. Bill Clements, who in 1978 was the first Republican elected governor since Reconstruction.
• AR-03: DeLay to run for the House again! Don’t worry, though, it sounds like The Hammer is sticking with Dancing with the Stars. Instead, it’s Gunner DeLay, a Republican former state Senator for Ft. Smith (which apparently puts him at a geographical disadvantage, as the district’s center of gravity is around Bentonville and Fayetteville). DeLay lost the 2006 AG race to Dem Dustin McDaniel, and lost the 2001 GOP primary in the AR-03 special election to now-Rep. John Boozman, finishing second.
• CA-33: As expected, term-limited state Assembly speaker Karen Bass just announced her candidacy to replace retiring Rep. Diane Watson in the dark-blue 33rd. She also secured Watson’s endorsement; between that and Bass’s prompt entry, the real question is whether anyone else even bothers contesting the race.
• NH-02: Maybe there’ll be two Basses in the next Congress? Republican ex-Rep. Charlie Bass made it official today, shedding the exploratory label and kicking off his campaign. Most people had been treating him as a candidate already, but he’d included some odd hedges when he announced his exploratory fund (saying it was just a place to stash old contributions) that seemed to leave him an out. With a recent UNH poll giving him the lead in the open seat race to reclaim his seat, he seems to feel confident enough to pull the trigger.
• NY-19: Ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth got a promotion in the NRCC’s Young Guns framework, moving up to the middle tier of “Contender.” However, the interesting story (buried at the bottom of the article) is that Hayworth, whose money seemed to drive Assemblyman Greg Ball out of the GOP primary, is getting a different more-conservative challenger: former Tuxedo Park mayor David McFadden, who’ll officially announce his candidacy on the 27th. Wall Street guy Neil DiCarlo is also already in the race, and Orange Co. GOP chair William DeProspo, who’s had some withering public statements about Hayworth’s qualifications, now is exploring the race as well. Cat fud, anyone?
• OH-02: Despite his celeb-reality status, former Apprentice contestant Surya Yalamanchili seems to be getting the local Democratic establishment to take him seriously. He just got the endorsement of the last two Democrats to lose close elections in this seat (which is deep-red, although Jean Schmidt’s continuing presence here makes it competitive): Vic Wulsin and Paul Hackett. He also got the endorsement of Cincinnati mayor Mark Mallory a few weeks ago. Looks like David Krikorian’s path to the nomination isn’t so certain anymore.
• PA-04: After people were starting to wonder what was with all the foot-dragging, former US Attorney (and, in that position, loyal Bushie) Mary Beth Buchanan officially entered the race for the GOP to go against Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire. She’d been a rumored candidate since October.
• PA-12: As was almost universally expected, it was decided to hold the special election to replace Rep. John Murtha on May 18, the same day as the primaries. Ed Rendell’s office justified this by saying it would cost an extra $600K to have it any other day, but this also bolsters Dem hopes here by having it on the same day as the hotly-contested Dem Senate and Governor primaries (and the barely-contested GOP primaries).
• RI-01: Two big names decided not to get into the Democratic field in the 1st (which already contains Providence mayor David Cicciline): most significantly, Lt. Governor Elizabeth Roberts, who says she’ll run for re-election instead. Secretary of State Ralph Mollis, who’d publicly considered a run, confirmed he won’t run either.
• SC-03: The Club for Growth weighed in in the GOP open seat primary in the R+17 3rd, where the choices are basically wingnut or super-wingnut. Apparently, state Rep. Jeff Duncan is the super-wingnut, as he got the endorsement over fellow state Rep. Rex Rice (who has Mike Huckabee’s endorsement, but is out because he apparently voted for a cigarette tax once).
• VA-05: How many teabaggers can they fit into the phone booth that is the GOP field in the 5th? Contractor Scott Schultz joined the quest to take on Rep. Tom Perriello, making him the 8th GOPer in the race.
• Election results: Democrats lost two legislative special elections last night, although neither one was on particularly favorable turf. While it was a hold for the Republicans rather than a GOP pickup (Dems still have a 14-10 Senate edge), the margin in New Hampshire’s SD-16 (a traditionally Republican area located in part of Manchester and its suburbs) may still leave NH Dems nervous. State Rep. David Boutin defeated Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley 58-42. In Alabama’s HD-40, though, Republicans picked up a Dem-held open seat (in rural NE Alabama, which has been dark-red at the presidential level and blue at the state level for a long time but where the red is starting to trickle down downballot). Funeral home owner K.L. Brown defeated teacher Ricky Whaley 56-42. Dems still control the Alabama House (for now), 60-45.
Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol 3.
Can a pollster be said to be spammy?
CO-Sen (2/2, likely voters, 1/13 in parens):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 37 (37)
Jane Norton (R): 51 (49)
Other: 5 (3)
Undecided: 7 (11)Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (35)
Jane Norton (R): 45 (47)
Other: 7 (5)
Undecided: 10 (14)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40 (38)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (44)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 9 (14)Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (39)
Tom Wiens (R): 42 (44)
Other: 6 (4)
Undecided: 12 (14)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (38)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (43)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 8 (15)Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (39)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (40)
Other: 6 (5)
Undecided: 10 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Sen (2/3, likely voters, 12/9 in parens):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 40 (42)
Mark Kirk (R): 46 (39)
Other: 4 (3)
Undecided: 10 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
KY-Sen (2/2, likely voters, 1/6 in parens):
Jack Conway (D): 40 (35)
Trey Grayson (R): 44 (45)
Other: 3 (7)
Undecided: 12 (12)Jack Conway (D): 39 (38)
Rand Paul (R): 47 (46)
Other: 3 (4)
Undecided: 11 (12)Daniel Mongiardo (D): 35 (37)
Trey Grayson (R): 49 (44)
Other: 5 (8)
Undecided: 11 (11)Daniel Mongiardo (D): 37 (35)
Rand Paul (R): 48 (49)
Other: 3 (3)
Undecided: 12 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen (2/2, likely voters, 1/11 in parens):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 41
Brian Krolicki (R): 44
Other: 7
Undecided: 8Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (36)
Sue Lowden (R): 45 (48)
Other: 8 (8)
Undecided: 8 (7)Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (36)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 47 (50)
Other: 8 (5)
Undecided: 6 (9)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (40)
Sharon Angle (R): 44 (44)
Other: 7 (10)
Undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SSP Daily Digest: 2/4
• CA-Sen: Possibly the most bizarre political ad (well, web video) of all time has just gotten unveiled by the Carly Fiorina campaign, which makes their “Carlyfornia Dreaming” website look reasoned and well-thought-out. I mean, they’re going to be studying this in political rhetoric classes 50 years from now, as an example of what not to do. Not only is the imagery laughable (check out the glowing-eyed demon sheep at 2:24) but the metaphor completely falls apart (Tom Campbell is a “FCINO” (financial conservative in name only) and thus a crafty wolf, while good politicians are a herd of helpless mindless sheep?).
• CT-Sen: Even Rasmussen can’t find a way to put a happy face on the tombstone piledriver the Connecticut GOP suffered with the Chris Dodd-for-Richard Blumenthal swap. They find Blumenthal leading ex-Rep. Rob Simmons 54-35 and Gorgeous Lady of Wrestling Linda McMahon 56-36. Simmons is actually very well-liked, at 60/26 favorables, but that’s no match for Blumenthal at 70/27.
• IL-Sen: Republicans can content themselves with Rasmussen’s first post-primary poll of the Senate field; they find GOP Rep. Mark Kirk leading Dem state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 46-40. This, of course, doesn’t jibe with not only last week’s PPP poll (with a 42-34 Alexi lead) but the last Rasmussen poll of the general, from December (with a 42-39 Alexi lead). Both those polls predate the strangely-timed consent decree between the FDIC and the Giannoulias-family-owned Broadway Bank, so it’s possible Giannoulias might have taken a hit from that. Also, Rasmussen’s numbers aren’t that far off from an internal (pdf) from Magellan that the Kirk campaign was quick to release yesterday: 47-35. One suggestion that might cast a little doubt on the samples, though, is Barack Obama’s approval ratings in his home state, oddly low at 54% and 51% respectively, only a few points ahead of his national average.
• IN-Sen: Ex-Sen. Dan Coats is leaving himself a lot of elbow room with the way he’s carefully phrased what he’s doing: “as I test the waters for a potential challenge…” I realize that SSP is pretty much powerless to change the nature of the political discourse, but we’re getting very tired of the whole “I’m not running, but I’m running, wink wink” kabuki that seems to be standard practice these days (John Boozman, we’re talking to you too). We fully intend to change the rating on this race, but not until Coats truly and officially gets in. At any rate, Coats may be wise leaving himself an escape hatch, if the dribs and drabs like this one keep piling up: one of his lobbying clients has been Hugo Chavez-connected oil company Harvest Natural Resources (but, then, making nice with Chavez is IOKIYAR, I guess).
• WI-Sen: If you’re looking for a tea leaf on whether or not ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson is interested in taking on Russ Feingold this year, look no further: he just took a position as an advisor to a hedge fund. He’ll consult with Peak Ridge Capital Group on agribusiness matters. Not only will that keep him occupied in the near future, but it’s not really the kind of thing you want on your resume if trying to run at a time of anti-banker agitas. (Another hint: the talk of an ex-Rep. Mark Neumann switch from the Governor’s race, to a rematch with Feingold, suddenly bubbling up.)
• IL-Gov: We have winners in the gubernatorial primaries, as all of Illinois’s precincts reported by the end of the day yesterday. Pat Quinn wound up with a more than 8,000 vote margin over Dan Hynes (good for 50.4%), and Hynes conceded this morning. On the Republican side, state Sen. Kirk Dillard didn’t make up as much ground in Cook County on fellow state Sen. Bill Brady as anticipated, and Brady wound up finishing with a 406-vote margin. There’s no automatic recount law in Illinois, so it’s up to Dillard to decide whether or not to proceed with a challenge.
Meanwhile, down the ballot, both parties seem somewhat aghast at the winners of their Lt. Governor primaries. News came out today that pawnbroker Scott Lee Cohen, winner of the Democratic nod, was arrested four years ago for misdemeanor assault after holding a knife to the throat of a girlfriend (who had also been convicted of prostitution). Needless to say, Quinn is already distancing himself from Cohen, calling on him to step aside. (Although Governor and Lt. Governor are elected separately in primaries, they’re then lashed together as a ticket for the general, which is how Rod Blagojevich and Quinn got put together despite their antipathy – I’m not sure if any other state does it that way.) Which isn’t to say that the Republicans fared much better on that front, nominating random teabagging businessman Jason Plummer (who, like Cohen, won by pouring his own money into the race) instead of state Sen. Matt Murphy.
• NY-Gov: I can’t see this being of any interest unless something goes seriously wrong and we somehow wind up with a David Paterson/Rick Lazio matchup and we need to shunt off some right-wing votes to get Paterson over the hump. But now there’s a teabagger-linked rich guy, Buffalo real estate developer Carl Paladino, saying that he’s considering a gubernatorial run, and that he “would go in as a pure independent.”
• PA-Gov: Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato has the big financial edge in the Dem gubernatorial primary, and now he has some key labor backing as well. The Teamsters are the first major union to endorse in the primary, and they went for Onorato.
• TX-Gov: Looks like there’s going to be a crazy Wang Dang Tango at Rick Perry’s Houston rally on Sunday: not only is Sarah Palin going to be there to endorse Perry, but so too is the Motor City Madman, the Ten Terrible Fingers of Doom, the Rock ‘n’ Roll Caveman: Ted Nugent (who plans to perform). In case you’re wondering where the normally reserved and understated Nugent stands on all things political, he recently said: “I think that Barack Hussein Obama should be put in jail. It is clear that Barack Hussein Obama is a communist. Mao Tse Tung lives and his name is Barack Hussein Obama. This country should be ashamed. I wanna throw up.”
• AR-01: The first Democrat making moves to replace retiring Rep. Marion Berry is Berry’s very own Chief of Staff, Chad Causey, who has already scheduled a fundraiser. State Sen. Steve Bryles, state Rep. Keith Ingram, and former state party chair Jason Willett are other Dems publicly eyeing the race. For the GOP, broadcaster Rick Crawford probably won’t have the race to himself, with state Sen. Johnny Key interested. Princella Smith is also likely to get in – she’ll definitely need a new job starting in November, as she’s currently a staffer to Rep. Joe Cao.
• FL-24: The 24th seems like an apt target for Republicans, with a Republican lean and freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas not quite finding her footing – but fundraising has gone poorly for the two GOPers in the race, state Rep. Sandy Adams and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, neither of whom has broken into the six digits in the last few quarters. The NRCC is now touting the likely entry of Craig Miller, the former CEO of Ruth’s Chris Steakhouses. He’s never held office before, but at least he brings his own money with him.
• NC-10: In the dark-red 10th, the only way odious chickenhawk Rep. Patrick McHenry is going to get dislodged is in a GOP primary – and it’s starting to look like that’s a possibility this year. Not one but two different opponents have outraised him (although mostly by dipping into their own wallets): dentist and Iredell Co. Commissioner Scott Keadle and businessman Vance Patterson. Keadle has some electoral experience, coming within 14 points of Mel Watt in NC-12 in 1998, during the brief period when the frequently-modified VRA district had a sizable white plurality. Keadle claims to be coming at McHenry from the right, which is hard to fathom as McHenry is already one of the most stridently conservative members of the House.
• NH-01: Another one-time NRCC fave who’s fallen by the side of the road somewhat as he’s put up quarter after quarter of mediocre fundraising is former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta. Sensing an opening, several other contenders have gotten into the GOP field; one, Richard Ashooh, has been exploring the race but made it official today. He comes with his own set of insider credentials, though: he’s the VP of governmental relations for large locally-based defense contractor BAE Systems.
• NY-23: Talk about not learning from the past. If Assemblyman Will Barclay wins the GOP nomination, he may find himself getting Scozzafavaed by the same guy. Doug Hoffman plans to run on both the Republican and Conservative lines, but Conservative party chair Mike Long says he’ll continue to back Hoffman on the Conservative line even if Hoffman loses the Republican primary.
• Redistricting: There’s still a chance to get on the newly-created California legislative redistricting board. The deadline to submit an application is Feb. 12. The state is taking notice that 73% of applicants are non-Hispanic whites and 70% are males, neither of which is very representative of the state’s makeup, and is shelling out for a last-minute outreach campaign to bring in some more minority applicants. Part of the problem is that applicants can’t have run for office or worked for a politician, which filters out many of the most politically engaged in minority communities. At any rate, it’s an opportunity to get more progressives behind the wheel of shaping a more competitive legislative map for next year, so any SSPers in the Golden State are urged to apply.
SSP Daily Digest: 2/3
• Election Results: With 99.1% of precincts reporting (97 remain, apparently mostly in Cook County), both sides of the governor’s race remain too close to call. Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn has declared victory, sitting on a 7,000 vote lead (50.4%-49.6%) and with the remaining precincts in Cook County likely to go his way, although Dan Hynes hasn’t conceded yet. On the GOP side, we’re looking most likely at a recount, as state Sen. Bill Brady leads fellow state Sen. Kirk Dillard currently by a 751-vote margin (20.3%-20.2%), as they both squeaked past the two presumed frontrunners, former state party chair Andy McKenna and former AG Jim Ryan. The fact that the remaining votes are from Cook County, however, may be poised to help the moderate suburbs-based Dillard, though, rather than the conservative downstate Brady, so this race seems likely to get even closer (Nate Silver actually projects a one-vote victory for Brady based on broader Cook County trends). Recount procedures make it sound like a protracted process – an initial vote tally won’t happen until March 5, and then the process “could take months to complete” – giving Quinn a big headstart on whoever the GOP victor turns out to be.
As expected, Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk are the Senate nominees, although both won their races with somewhat underwhelming percentages (39% for Giannoulias, and 57% for Kirk, who could have been in more trouble had the teabagging right coalesced behind one person in particular). Conservatives did triumph over establishment candidates in several GOP House primaries, though, as Bob Dold! beat state Rep. Beth Coulson in the 10th, and state Sen. Randy Hultgren beat Ethan Hastert in the 14th.
In Florida, as expected, state Sen. Ted Deutch easily won the special election primary to succeed Rep. Robert Wexler, beating former Broward Co. Commissioner Ben Graber 86-15. It looks like he’ll face Republican Ed Lynch (the 2008 nominee), who defeated Joe Budd by only 46 votes (but with only 8,000 total GOP votes, that’s outside the margin for an automatic recount). And here’s a surprise out of Kentucky: Democrats picked up a state House seat in the dark-red HD 24, which was recently vacated when Republican Jimmy Higdon got promoted to the state Senate in another special election. Terry Mills won, 54-46, based on an overwhelming edge (89-11) on his home turf of Marion County, reminding us that, at the end of the day, all politics is local.
Finally, last night was caucus and straw poll night in Minnesota. Only 80% of precincts have reported yet – I guess they go to bed early in Minnesota – but the straw poll in the Democratic governor’s race points to only a lot of chaos at this point. Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak led with 21.8%, followed closely by state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 20.2%. However, “uncommitted” is a solid 3rd at 15%, there are five other candidates who managed to break 5% (John Marty, Tom Rukavina, Paul Thissen, Matt Entenza, and Tom Bakk), and ex-Sen. Mark Dayton doesn’t even seem to be bothering with the whole process, planning on going straight to the primary, so there’s not much clarity on how the field will shake out. The GOP field seems much more clear-cut, where former state House minority leader Marty Seifert beat state Rep. Tom Emmer 50-39, with the rest of the field in the low single digits.
• AZ-Sen: With the imminent entry of ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth into the Republican primary against John McCain, we’re already looking at dueling internal polls. McCain offers up a poll from POS, giving him a 59-30 lead over Hayworth. Hayworth has his own poll from McLaughlin, which, not surprisingly, shows him much closer, trailing 49-33.
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek, NASCAR dad? Meek plans to call attention to his campaign by shelling out to be the lead sponsor of Mike Wallace’s car in an upcoming race at Daytona.
• IN-Sen: With the surprising announcement by ex-Sen. Dan Coats last night that he’s interested in a comeback and would start seeking the signatures to qualify for the Indiana GOP nod, the oppo pretty much writes itself. For starters, Coats can’t even sign his own petition – he’s been a registered voter in Virginia for more than a decade, not Indiana. And what’s he been doing for much of that time? Lobbying… for King & Spalding, on behalf of nice people like the Carlyle Group and Bank of America. The Plum Line also points to Coats accusing Bill Clinton of “wagging the dog” when he started going after al-Qaeda in 1998, allegedly to distract the press from his peccadilloes… and we all know how that turned out.
• ND-Sen: Democrats have, well, somebody ready to go if ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp doesn’t get into the Senate race to replace retiring Byron Dorgan. State Sen. Tracy Potter, who represents Bismarck, will be announcing his candidacy on Friday. Other potential candidates seem to be holding back, waiting to see what Heitkamp does; she’s been strangely silent since initially expressing interest in the seat last month.
• NY-Sen-B: Quinnipiac’s first poll of the New York Senate race after the Harold Ford Jr. boomlet began finds, well, pretty much what everyone else has found: Kirsten Gillibrand beats him by a wide margin but doesn’t break 50%. Gillibrand beats 36-18, with Jonathan Tasini at 4. Quinnipiac also tests general election matchups against Republican port commissioner Bruce Blakeman (they don’t even bother testing ex-Gov. George Pataki, who doesn’t seem to be making any moves to get into the race). Gillibrand beats Blakeman 44-27, and Ford beats him 35-26. Gillibrand is slowly gaining some more name rec, up to a 42/28 approval. Blakeman may not have the GOP primary to himself, though, as a strange blast from the past is re-emerging to say he’s interested in the race: ex-Rep. Joseph DioGuardi. In case the name doesn’t ring a bell, DioGuardi served in the House representing Westchester County from 1984 to 1988, when he was defeated by Nita Lowey.
• NY-Gov: The same Quinnipiac sample looks at the governor’s race, finding huge approval gaps between Andrew Cuomo (54/16) and David Paterson (34/49). Cuomo wins the Democratic primary 55-23. Cuomo beats Rick Lazio 57-25, while Lazio manages to get past Paterson 40-39. There’s also one other bit of good news for Cuomo (who’s seemed gunshy about taking on Paterson, perhaps out of bad memories of his race against Carl McCall). The poll asked if his candidacy would be “racially divisive,” and respondents answered “no” by an 80-14 margin, including 73-22 among African-Americans. Marist (pdf) also just released the gubernatorial half of its recent Senate poll, finding generally similar numbers. Cuomo wins the primary 70-23. Cuomo beats Lazio 64-27, while Lazio edges Paterson 46-43.
• TN-Gov: Add one more candidate running for higher office who’s publicly copped to being birther-curious: Lt. Gov. (and GOP gubernatorial candidate) Ron Ramsey. Not having made much of an impression in terms of polling (where Rep. Zach Wamp has an edge) or fundraising (where Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam is cleaning up), this seems like the most attention Ramsey has gotten so far.
• TX-Gov: Here’s more evidence that the Texas GOP gubernatorial primary may be headed for a runoff: the new Rasmussen poll of the primary doesn’t have anyone coming even close to 50%. Incumbent Rick Perry leads at 44, with Kay Bailey Hutchison lagging at 29, and Paulist insurgent Debra Medina all the way up to 14 on the strength of some buzz coming out of her debate performances. KBH may be counting on a runoff as her only way left to salvage this race, but somehow it seems like, in a runoff, Medina votes are a lot likely to gravitate toward the secession-invoking Perry rather than consummate DC insider Hutchison. In the general, all three defeat Democratic ex-Houston mayor Bill White, although, as one would expect, KBH puts up the biggest margin: 49-36. Perry wins 48-39, while Medina wins by only 41-38.
• AR-02: One of the non-Tim Griffin candidates in the Republican field, David Meeks, dropped out of the race today, probably realizing he was in over his head with the kind of attention open seat races get. One other candidate, restaurant owner Scott Wallace remains, and he may well carry the teabagger flag against Beltway creature Griffin. Realizing the best way to win this is by painting Griffin as insider, the DCCC is turning their attention to Griffin’s past as GOP behind-the-scenes fixer, calling attention to his efforts at voter suppression. Over in the diaries, ARDem takes a look at the developing Dem field, which currently contains state House speaker Robbie Wills, liberal state Sen. Joyce Elliott, and retiring Vic Snyder’s chief of staff, David Boling. It won’t contain, however, Little Rock mayor Mike Stodola, or Public Service Commissioner Paul Suskie, who had seemed to be laying the groundwork for a run.
• CA-12, CA-AG: False alarm: Rep. Jackie Speier is staying put in the 12th District, where’s she been in place for only a couple years. Rumors that she was about to move over to the state AG’s race had many of the state legislators on the Peninsula angling to replace her.
• GA-04: In the wake of an internal from Rep. Hank Johnson showing him crushing his three opponents in the Dem primary in this solidly-blue district in Atlanta’s suburbs, one of those opponents got out of the way: DeKalb Co. Commissioner Lee May. May is an ally of former DeKalb Co. CEO Vernon Jones, so it’s possible that he’s getting out of the way primarily so that Jones can get a bigger share of the non-Johnson vote.
• MA-10: With the general sense that this is the most vulnerable district in Massachusetts (as seen with its votes in the Senate special election last month), Republicans are taking more of an interest in challenging Rep. William Delahunt in this usually-ignored seat. Former state treasurer Joe Malone is probably the biggest name to express interest, but at least one other credible contender, state Rep. Jeffrey Perry, is already announcing his candidacy. State Sen. Robert Hedlund is also expressing some interest.
• NJ-07: One big hole in the Dems’ recruitment schedule has been the 7th, narrowly won by freshman GOP Rep. Leonard Lance in 2008. They’ve managed to fill the gap with Ed Potosnak, who’s elevated slightly above Some Dude status by the full Rolodex he brings with him after working for a number of years as a Hill staffer for Rep. Mike Honda.
• PA-11: Lackawanna Co. Commissioner Corey O’Brien has a compelling argument for why he should win the primary in the 11th: he says Rep. Paul Kanjorski has “zero” chance of defeating Republican Lou Barletta in their third face-off, citing Kanjorski’s low approval ratings. O’Brien has been fundraising well ($180K last quarter, not far from Kanjo’s $237K) and recently hit the airwaves with a small cable buy for his first TV spot.
• CA-LG: Is San Francisco mayor (and gubernatorial race dropout) Gavin Newsom actually thinking about a run for the dead-end job that is California’s #2? Officially he’s not interested, but he hasn’t said no, and a new public poll from Tulchin gives him a big lead in a hypothetical LG primary, with Newsom at 33 against the two declared candidates: Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn at 17 and state Sen. Dean Florez at 15. Meanwhile, the state Senate this week takes up the issue of filling the current vacancy in the LG’s chair (vacated by now-Rep. John Garamendi); there’s actually talk of blocking Ahnold appointee state Sen. Abel Maldonado, despite that getting the moderate Republican Maldonado out of his seat would open up his Dem-leaning district for a takeover and help push the Dem edge in the Senate toward the magic 2/3s mark.
• CT-AG: The story of Susan Bysiewicz just gets stranger and stranger; she decided that rather than run for governor, she’d prefer to run for AG, but now the job’s current occupant, Richard Blumenthal, says that possibly she can’t. An AG opinion interprets state law requiring ten years of legal practice as unclear and urges a declaratory ruling on Bysiewicz’s case from a court. Bysiewicz, for her part, said she won’t seek the declaratory ruling and is simply plowing ahead with her AG campaign, although it’s possible one of the other candidates in the race might force the issue in the courts.
• Polltopia: The skepticism toward those SurveyUSA polls commissioned by Firedoglake continues to grow, this time from political science professor and frequent Pollster.com contributor Alan Abramowitz. His gravest concerns are with the leading questions in the issues portions of the poll on health care reform, but he also points to serious problems with the samples’ compositions that we were quick to flag. He observes that the samples deeply underrepresent younger votes, and that the youth subsets are so small that there’s no good way to “weight up” younger voters to a more proportionate level.
IL-Gov, IL-Sen: Democratic Primary Maps
Three paragraphs of original writing, well a picture’s worth a thousand words, right?
But in all seriousness, here are maps of the Democratic primary for both Governor and Senator.
For Governor (on left), green is for Hynes, Orange for Quinn. For Senator (on right), green is for Giannoulias, Orange for Hoffman. The color scale is slightly different for Senate, since it was a three-person race, Cheryle Jackson won exactly one county. (Too many colors is part of the reason I’m not attempting to do the Republican race at this point in the night.)
As you can see, Quinn won where it mattered: his slight margin in Cook County (especially 10% margin in the city of Chicago), is what’s pulling him across the finish line. Frankly, I think Hynes screwed up with his Harold Washington ad that enraged plenty of voters. (On the bright side, I had been considering voting GOP for governor, but now that the GOP nominee is Bill Brady, the Dem is getting my vote.)
Hynes won huge in Metro-East (Madison County by 27%, St. Clair by 5%), Springfield (Sangamon County by 24%) and Decatur (Macon County by 27%). Hynes also added to his margin in North Central Illinois, winning Peoria by 2%, Bloomington (McLean County by 3%), and LaSalle/Peru by 4%. Again, Quinn won where it matters – he didn’t get completely demolished in the collar surrounding Cook County, losing Will County by 10% but eking out wins in both Lake and DuPage. Quinn’s strongest county? Jo Daivess (and you say we’re not southern!) in the northwest corner of the state, Hynes’ was Fayette in the souther-center of the state.
For Senate, Giannoulias did extremely well downstate: that solid green represents Giannoulias at 60%+ in a 3-way race. Hoffman held his own in the population centers in Chicagoland, especially the more affluent ones, stomping out wins in Lake and DuPage. Giannoulias won the city of Chicago itself, while Hoffman squeezed out an edge in the Cook suburbs. Giannoulias’ solid margins downstate were probably too much to overcome without definitive wins in Chicago and bigger wins in the suburbs. Hoffman’s best county was Lake (49.4%), worst was Rock Island (only 18.2%). Giannoulias’ best was 63.3% in Monroe, worst was Clark, the exact reverse of Cheryle Jackson. Her 23.7% in Cook was pretty important to her strong showing though.
Lastly, of note, the collar counties’ voting powers were diluted today thanks to astronomic turnout (in comparison) in Cook County:
550,000 were cast in Cook for the Democratic primary compared to 905,000 votes for Blagojevich in 2002 (when he had a very generic Dem quality), a 60% turnout ratio compared to 2002 Democratic turnout.
34,000 votes were cast in Lake compared to 76,000 for Blago (a 44% ratio). The ratio in DuPage was 42%, 37% in Kane County, and 45% in Will County. I’m guessing the (relative) high turnout in Cook County is due to our willingness to vote out Todd Stroger (incidentally, whoo Toni Preckwinkle!).
Once we get precinct results and I make the requisite shapefiles, we can break down the city of Chicago and suburban Cook County to compare areas of strength. I’ll probably do maps for that for Governor, Senate, and Cook County Board President. Let me know what other maps you’d like…
Illinois Primary Results Thread #2
2:00am: We’ve crossed the threshold into 99% of the vote reporting; Quinn’s lead over Hynes is 5,400, while it’s a little thinner for Brady, who’s up on Dillard by 1,484. Even if we hit 100% reporting at some point tonight, both sides may head to recounts.
1:15am: Still waiting on more numbers, but here’s an interesting bit of trivia: despite winning only 21% of the vote, it looks like Brady won 61 of the state’s 102 counties.
12:50am: Things are still stalled at 98% reporting in the governor’s race. Quinn’s up by about 5,000 on the Dem side, 50.3% to 49.7%. On the GOP side, it’s Brady has a 1,700 vote edge over Dillard, 20.6% to 20.4% (with McKenna in 3rd at 18.9%). Who would’ve ever thought Brady, who’d polled in fourth place for the most part, would pull it out? Looks like he consolidated the Downstate vote while everyone else tore each other apart in the Chicago metro area.
12:07am: It looks like Dillard should be able to pick up about 1,300 votes in the oustanding precincts (most of which are in Cook County). But that won’t be enough.
11:53pm: What a wild ride — with 97% in, Bill Brady is back up over Kirk Dillard by over 2100 votes. How many times did the lead for this race change hands tonight?
11:44pm: Over in IL-10, Julie Hamos has conceded to Dan Seals.
11:39pm: 96.3% in now, and Quinn has expanded his margin over the past few minutes to a bit under 5200 votes. With a lot of the outstanding precincts coming from Cook, Quinn looks like he’ll end up on top — but just barely. For the GOP, Dillard leads Brady by a cool grand.
11:30pm: Ethan Hastert has conceded to Randy Hultgren. Aaron Blake says Hastert has pledged to help Hultgren, unlike the helpful Oberweis/Lauzen debacle. Sigh.
11:25pm: The kids down at the SSP Labs Skunkworks have been furiously scribbling on the backs of envelopes. They tell us that if the remaining precincts follow existing trends, Quinn is likely to pick up about 2,000 more votes on Hynes.
11:20pm: 93.9% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads by 0.6% (or 5,400 votes). The problem for Hynes is that half of the outstanding precincts are in Cook County — I’m not really sure if the outstanding votes downstate will give him enough juice to overcome that deficit.
11:10pm: With 93.1% now in, Quinn’s lead is now at 0.6%. For the GOP, Dillard has leap-frogged ahead of Brady by 2,200 votes.
11:07pm: Looks like Dan Seals has pulled out a squeaker in IL-10. With 99.2% of votes counted, he leads 22,267 to 21,605.
11:04pm: Note to Patrick Hughes and Adam Andrzejewski: The Illinois filing deadline for independent or third-party candidates is not until June 21st. You still have a second chance!
11:01pm: 91.3% of the vote is now in, and Quinn still leads by 0.8%. Note that the slightly Quinn-friendly DuPage County is now 86.5% in, and 8.3% of the vote is left uncounted in the more Quinn-friendly Cook.
10:56pm: For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by about 3000 votes. (McKenna, in turn, trails Dillard by another 3000.)
10:54pm: With 87% in, Quinn’s lead over Hynes is down to 0.8%. DuPage is now half-in, and 9.6% of precincts are outstanding in the marginally Quinn-friendly Cook County.
10:53pm: Shira Toeplitz of Roll Call says that Hoffman has conceded.
10:51pm: Randy Hultgren seems to have this one sewn up – 54-46 lead with only 12% outstanding.
10:47pm: The Hill’s Aaron Blake says Beth Coulson has conceded IL-10 – Bob Dold! wins.
10:41pm: 82.6% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead has been whittled down to 1.2%. For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by almost 4000 votes.
10:36pm: With 81% of the vote in, Quinn holds stead at a 1.4% lead, but he’s only stemming the bleeding now that more votes are being counted in Cook (where just over 10% of the vote is outstanding). For the GOP, Brady now leads, and McKenna has slipped behind Dillard to third place. Plenty of time for that to flip around, though.
10:29pm: Photo finish? With 79% in, Quinn leads Hynes by 1.4%. For the GOP, McKenna, Brady, and Dillard are in a three-way race for the gube nod — the trio are separated by just 2000 votes.
10:23pm: They spark a fast joint in the 10th CD: Dan Seals is now up by almost 700 votes with just 2.5% remaining. And Randy Hultgren is now up 7 points.
10:22pm: Some more MN-Gov news: On the GOP side, Marty Seifert is cleaning up in the precinct caucuses, 55-34 over Tom Emmer. This will be hard for Emmer to claw his way back from… Seifert probably has to be seen as the favorite for the Republican nomination now.
10:20pm: 75% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead inches down to 1.6%. And it looks like they’re taking a ganja break in IL-10.
10:17pm: 73% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads Hynes by 1.8%. Alexi’s looking a lot more comfortable with a 4.2% lead.
10:12pm: More non-Illinois news: In Minnesota’s precinct-level caucuses, Margaret Anderson Kelliher and and RT Rybak have about 19% apiece. “Uncommitted” is in third with 14%.
10:08pm: 67% in, and Quinn’s lead has been cut down to 2.4%.
10:04pm: With 64% in (and 86% in Cook County), Quinn leads Hynes by 2.8%. Hynes is counting on the outstanding downstate votes to give him a win, but Quinn is also leading in the early DuPage county returns — and less than 10% of the vote has been counted there.
10:01pm: Sadly, in IL-03, Daniel Lipinski is winning his primary with about 77% of the vote. Not that anyone expected his unknown opponent to put up much of a fight. Still, Jorge Mujica is getting 22%… not much worse than the well-funded and somewhat-highly touted Mark Pera got in 2008 (26%).
9:56pm: It’s time for a new thread. Hultgren is up 52-48 over Hastert, with 40% reporting.
RESULTS: Associated Press | Chicago Tribune | Sun-Times | Politico
Illinois Primary Results Thread
9:57pm: Please join us in our new thread.
9:54pm: The Dem gov race is also tightening – Quinn is now up just 3.2% with 58% in.
9:53pm: Alexi’s lead is back down to 3.5% with 59% of the vote in – but is there any way for Hoffman to catch up?
9:50pm: IL-10 just got a lot tighter – Seals’ lead has shrunk to 48.1-46.5. But only 12% of precincts are left to count.
9:45pm: The GOP gov race is really, really tight. Andy McKenna is at 21.5, Kirk Dillard at 19.2, Jim Ryan at 17.2 and Bill Brady, also at 17.2 Adam Andrzejewski, the favorite of teabaggers and Lech Walesa, is all the way back in fifth place. My advice to him: Run as an independent this fall.
9:42pm: In non-Illinois news, Democrats have actually picked up an open seat in the Kentucky state House tonight, winning the seat that Republican Jimmy Higdon left behind after winning a special election to the state Senate. Nice score!
9:37pm: Quinn now leads by 4.6%, and Alexi by 4.3%.
9:35pm: Check out IL-14, where Randy Hultgren is ahead of Ethan Hastert by 51-49 with 9% in.
9:34pm: In IL-10, Seals now leads Hamos by 4.1% with 66% in. Bob Dold! leads by 9.
9:32pm: It looks like Alderman Toni Preckwinkle has won the Cook County Board Presidency.
9:31pm: Alexi is up by just 3.8% now, with 43% in. Quinn is up 5.
9:28pm: In the open-seat SoS Dem primary, it’s a dogfight between Miller and Krishnamoorthi – Miller is up 47-46.
9:25pm: In IL-10, Seals now leads Hamos by 5.3%, while Bob Dold! is cruising by over 8% with 54% in.
9:23pm: Quinn now leads by 5.6%, and Alexi is up by 4.2%. For the GOP, McKenna and Dillard are now both ahead of ex-AG Jim Ryan.
9:17pm: In IL-14, Ethan Hastert has a mere 51-49 lead over Randy Hultgren, with just 3% reporting. Brothers and sisters, let us all pray for a protracted, nasty recount.
9:15pm: In IL-11, Adam Kinzinger is cruising with 62% of the vote. Is that low? Is that high? You tell me.
9:13pm: In IL-08, Some Dude Joe Walsh leads the pack with 34% with about 42% of votes counted. The winner here gets the privilege of taking on Melissa Bean.
9:11pm: In IL-07, Danny Davis, who had vacillated between running for re-election and seeking the Cook County Board Presidency, is taking about two thirds of the vote. Not terrific for an incumbent, but the remainder is split between several candidates.
9:05pm: As for the gube race, Quinn leads Hynes by 6.8 points on the nose, while Alexi leads Hoffman by 4.5%. Hoffman has widened his lead in Lake County, but that’s more than offset by Giannoulias’ strong performance downstate. With almost 39% reporting in IL-10, Seals leads Hamos by 51.5-43.1. For the Republicans, Bob Dold! leads Coulson by about 10 points.
8:55pm: The thing is, it seems like most of the big names on tonight’s ballot call Chicago home… so it’s hard to say who, if anyone, ought to be cleaning up in the Windy City.
8:52pm: Dave Wasserman tweets that Hoffman is only up narrowly in Lake County, a place where he should have expected to do well, and suggests it’s a good sign for Alexi.
8:49pm: In IL-10, Dan Seals is up 51-44 over Julie Hamos with about 8% reporting. Bob Dold leads Elizabeth Coulson for the GOP nod, 38-30.
8:47pm: To no one’s surprise, Mark Kirk is running away with the GOP nomination. My advice to Patrick Hughes: Run as an independent this fall.
8:45pm: So with 16% of the vote in on the Dem side, Quinn has a narrow 53-47 lead. For the GOPers, Andy McKenna leads with 27%, while Ryan, Dillard and Andrzejewski are at 20, 19, and 17 respectively.
8:42pm: Politico has much quicker results. In the Senate race, it’s 37A-30H-26C, while Quinn is up 54-46 in the gov contest.
8:39pm: I don’t know why the AP is being so slow – Lake County has already counted a bunch of votes. FWIW, they have Hoffman and Hynes up.
8:27pm: Congrats to the folks in DeKalb County, who clock in with the first precinct (out of 11,215) of the night.
8:24pm: Pass the dutchie ‘pon the left hand side….
Polls are now closed in Illinois, where we’ve got hot Democratic and Republican primaries up and down the ticket. (For a full review of the biggest races to watch, check out DavidNYC’s preview.) We’ll be using this thread to track the results as they come in.
RESULTS: Associated Press | Chicago Tribune | Sun-Times | Politico