Shelia Smoot (D): 33
Earl Hilliard Jr. (D): 28
Terry Sewell (D): 12
Martha Bozeman (D): 6
Undecided/other: 20
(MoE: 4%)
Tag: Heather Wilson
NM-Gov: Wilson Won’t Run
There was one Republican question mark left concerning the New Mexico gubernatorial race, and it was a fairly big one: former Rep. Heather Wilson, who gave up her seat for an unsuccessful Senate run. Yesterday, she announced that she won’t run, saying that she enjoys her private sector work, and:
“The Governor of New Mexico has no significant national security role – an issue area that continues to be an important part of my life. Running for office and being Governor means setting these things aside.”
That leaves well-regarded Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish a pretty clear path to the victory. The only Republicans in the race are pretty second-string: state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones and Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez.
RaceTracker: NM-Gov
SSP Daily Digest: 7/16
• FL-Sen: Although Rep. Corrine Brown, who’s expressed interest in running in the Democratic Senate primary, has been pretty inactive on the fundraising front, she did get at least one prominent donor to her Senate exploratory account: Rep. Donna Edwards, who gave her $1,000. (Edwards also gave to Rep. Kendrick Meek’s account on the same day — but only $250 to him.)
• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning finally released his fundraising numbers, and they’re still “lousy.” He raised $285K for the quarter, with $595K CoH, which is less than half of the amount raised by the guy who says he won’t run against Bunning in the primary, SoS Trey Grayson (who raised $603K). Both, of course, are dwarfed by Democratic AG Jack Conway, who raised $1.32 million for the quarter and is increasingly looking like the man to beat. (Conway’s primary rival, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, pulled in a lukewarm $303K.) Meanwhile, in another indication of Bunning’s dwindling power, lots of elected GOP officials seem willing to out themselves as Grayson supporters: Grayson got contributions from three state Reps., city councilors from Louisville and Lexington, and executives from three large counties.
• NH-Sen: One more indicator that there’s still going to be a contested GOP primary in New Hampshire: local political insider and long-time friend of AG Kelly Ayotte Mike Dennehy isn’t going to be working for Ayotte. He’s been working with businessman Fred Tausch on his anti-tax STEWARD organization since last fall, and will continue to do so.
• NC-Sen: Kenneth Lewis, a Durham corporate attorney who’s planning to run for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2010, made a big hire: Joe Trippi. It suggests, if nothing else, Lewis plans to spend a lot of money on the race, and maybe also that he’s interested in reaching out the netroots (although he may have some competition on that front, if he runs, from former state Sen. Cal Cunningham).
• NM-Gov: If ex-Rep. Heather Wilson doesn’t get in, the New Mexico GOP is left with a bunch of third-stringers for the governor’s race. Here’s a newly interested potential candidate, though, who’s at least interesting from a demographic perspective: Susana Martinez. She’s the DA of Dona Ana County, location of Las Cruces and New Mexico St. Univ., the state’s second-most populous county and one of its Democratic anchors. Running a Latina against an Anglo (likely Dem nominee Lt. Gov. Diane Denish) might also help the GOP peel off some ordinarily-Dem votes.
• NY-14: Roll Call previews the many possible Democratic replacements for Carolyn Maloney, if she follows through on her planned Senate race. On the Manhattan side of the East River, state Sen. Liz Krueger is at the top of the list. Younger up-and-comers, though, include city councilor Dan Garodnick, state Assemblyman Jonathan Bing (both of whom are Maloney allies and unlikely to run against each other), and city councilor Jessica Lappin. On the Queens side, there’s also city councilors Eric Gioia and Peter Vallone Jr. (son of the former council speaker), and Assemblyman Michael Gianaris. Karenna Gore Schiff (Al Gore’s daughter) has also been rumored, although she told TPM today she won’t run.
• PA-06: With Rep. Jim Gerlach gone, the primary opponents are descending on this open seat… but contrary to what I would have expected a few months ago, it’s happening on the GOP side. While state Rep. Curt Schroder got in, as expected, he didn’t clear the field: Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello also said he’s likely to get in. Also, Guy Ciarrocchi, Gerlach’s former chief of staff, is interested, and Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele’s name has been floated, although she’s already exploring a Lt. Gov. race. On the Dem side, Doug Pike’s early fundraising dominance may have locked things down for him, although the Hill says potential heavyweight state Sen. Andy Dinniman is still “eyeing” the race, as well as Manan Trivedi (a former health care policy advisor to the Obama campaign).
• VA-05: One last fundraising tidbit, that apparently couldn’t fit in James’s fundraising wrap-up because it rounds off to $0. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode raised sub-Roland Burris totals last quarter: $154. Not the kind of money that suggests a rematch against Rep. Tom Perriello.
• Demographics: Two interesting reads you’ll want to check out: one from Ruy Teixeira, on how the rise of the millennial generation, more “seculars,” and more Latinos all point to an imminent end to the “culture wars.” And also an important 538 piece from Nate Silver, where he somehow got his hands on polling data on uninsured voters broken down by CD, finding that — unlike voting against cap-and-trade, where their districts tend to be more carbon-reliant and voting against the measure might seem short-term rational — Blue Dogs are disproportionately from districts that are heavy on uninsured voters and voting for the bill would, if framed correctly, be a big boon for their districts’ voters. With the public option still hanging in the balance, if you’re represented by a Blue Dog (although, if you’re reading SSP, chances are that you aren’t), this would be a great piece to forward to them.
NM-Gov: Denish Wallops Wilson, Pearce
Harstad Strategic Research for the DGA (5/31-6/4, likely voters):
Diane Denish (D): 57
Heather Wilson (R): 35
Undecided: 8Diane Denish (D): 57
Steve Pearce (R): 35
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4%)
As far as we know, no one has polled the New Mexico governor’s race until now… or even paid much attention to the race. That’s because, with the current field, this open seat is looking like, if not a slam dunk, then at least a poorly contested lay-up for Team Blue. Not only is there New Mexico’s big shift to the left in the 2008 election, but also a huge disparity in recruitment. Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has been the long-time heir apparent for the Dems (although state Senate majority leader Michael Sanchez is looking at the race), while all the GOP has cobbled together is official candidate National Guard Brig. Gen. Greg Zanetti, along with two explorers: state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones and Allen Weh, former state party chair best known for his supporting role in the U.S. Attorney scandal.
Still, the possibility has loomed in the distance that the GOP might field a higher-profile candidate: either one of the two former Reps., Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce, who basically destroyed each other en route to Tom Udall’s easy 2008 Senate victory. If this internal poll for the DGA is even remotely close to reality, then there’s not much of a race here even if Wilson or Pearce show up, as both of them lose 57-35. Denish even leads Wilson 53-40 in NM-01, Wilson’s base of operations for over a decade as she kept America safe from stray nipples. Pearce has also been weighing a run to get back his old seat in NM-02; if this poll is any indication, that’d be a better use of his time. (H/t Campaign Diaries.)
RaceTracker: NM-Gov
NM-Gov: The return of Wilson?
So I went with some friends to the taping of Real Time with Bill Maher tonight. The panelists were former Bush UN ambassador John Bolton, former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM), and CSI: NY actor Hill Harper. Before the show began, one of Bill’s writers came out to prep the audience, and when explaining who the guests were, said that Wilson was running for Governor of New Mexico.
This was a surprise to me, as I had no idea that she was interested in running. And maybe the writer was simply confused. But it seemed maybe to be a piece of inside information that he didn’t realize was not public yet, and maybe had heard backstage when they meet the guests for the evening.
So take it for what it’s worth. He may have been completely wrong, or not. We’ll soon find out.
SSP Daily Digest: 5/8
• PA-Sen: Tom Ridge’s appearance on Hardball yesterday may have set a new bar for equivocation. He wouldn’t commit to whether or not he’d vote for would-be rival Pat Toomey in the GOP primary, instead veering off into extolling the virtues of the secret ballot. On the flipside, in a nice bit of symmetry, Arlen Specter told Fox News that he can’t promise to vote with the Dems “all the time” on procedural votes. So, the takeaway is: nobody’s promising anything.
• NY-Sen-B: Charles Schumer has ratcheted up his efforts to grease the wheels for Kirsten Gillibrand’s re-election path in 2010, hooking her up with donors, lobbying to get her on the good committees, and trying to tamp down possible primary challenges. “There is not going to be a primary!” he recently announced at a fundraiser (to the laughs of the audience… although I’m not sure whether the insiders were laughing due to his comic timing or the audacity and/or futility of his statement).
• IL-Sen: Roland Burris is starting to seem like that last guest at the party who isn’t getting the message that it’s time to go home. Burris says he would like to keep his Senate seat, but will have to make “a formal decision in the next few weeks based on his ability to raise money for a campaign.” With a total of $845 raised so far… well… you do the math.
• KY-Sen: One more Kentuckian is touring the state gauging potential support for the GOP Senate primary, which may or may not contain Jim Bunning. It’s Rand Paul, a doctor who’s never held elected office before but has one important ace in the hole: he’s the son of Rep. Ron Paul, which, if nothing else, establishes his liberatarian bona fides and gives him a nationwide fundraising base of fringe weirdo small donors.
• NM-Gov: Two new candidates have emerged as possible contenders for the Republican nomination for governor in the Land of Enchantment: former state GOP chair Allen Weh (who was intrumental in the firing of US Attorney David Iglesias), who opened an exploratory committee this week, and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who’s in the “considering” stage. National Guard Brig. Gen. Greg Zanetti is already in the race. This race could get more interesting if ex-Rep. Heather Wilson joined this paltry lot, but with the Dems already coalesced behind Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, the GOP is starting out in a hole here.
• CA-47: Remember how Bill Sali had his campaign HQ in the wrong district? GOP assemblyman Van Tran seems to be following in Rep. Brain Fade’s fine footsteps, at least in the map skills department. He kicked off his campaign with an event in the Little Saigon neighborhood in Westminster… in CA-46.
• CA-32: In the run-up to the May special election, state Sen. Gil Cedillo has turned his fire toward the race’s third wheel: Emanuel Pleitez. Pleitez, a 26-year-old up-and-comer who was part of the Obama transition team, threatens to eat into Cedillo’s share of the Latino vote (which he’ll need to dominate if he’s to beat Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu). Cedillo is sending flyers using photos grabbed from Pleitez’s Facebook page to make the case that he’s too young and immature for Congress.
• TN-04: A stem-winding progressive-sounding speech came from a very unlikely place: Blue Dog Rep. Lincoln Davis, holder of a newly-minted R+13 seat, speaking at last weekend’s Tennessee Democratic Party summit.
• Mayors: There’s another batch of big-city mayoral elections this Saturday, all in Texas. In San Antonio, 34-year-old former city councilor Julian Castro is favored to win. Castro finished second four years ago to Phil Hardberger, who’s now termed-out. In Austin, the best-known mayoral contender is Carole Strayhorn, who was mayor of Austin in the 1970s and ran for governor as an independent in the crazy 2006 gubernatorial election. Strayhorn, however, is probably too conservative for today’s Austin, and the frontrunner seems to be city councilor Brewster McCracken.
• Census: The state of New York is ponying up $2 million in state funding to bolster participation in the 2010 Census, mostly for outreach campaigns to traditionally undercounted populations. Assumedly, they think this money will pay much greater dividends later, if a more accurate count reveals more New Yorkers and thus brings in more federal funding for social programs.
• LA-Sen: In a tantalizing item, the Hotline teases that “The DSCC won’t let Rep. Melancon (D) alone.” Does this mean Melancon could be back in the recruiting crosshairs, despite previously saying he was “not contemplating a run”? The Hotline’s note is behind a subscription paywall; if you have access to it, please feel free to elaborate in comments.
NM-Sen: Udall Has More CoH than Pearce, Wilson Combined
Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP
It looks like Tom Udall is the big winner of the money race again. 
His campaign sent out a press release minutes ago touting the fact that he will enter the general election with $2,876,030 cash on hand. Nearly three million dollars cash on hand — before June.
From the release:
Udall reported total expenses of $431,865 and finished the period with $2,876,030 cash-on-hand.
This is the third consecutive reporting period Udall has outraised both of his potential GOP opponents combined. He reported a strong total of over $1.3 million in the first quarter of 2008, which ended March 31, and in the final months of 2007 he raised over $1 million.
Not only did Udall raise more money than both combined, his cash on hand advantage is tremendous.
The AP reported on the numbers from Pearce and Wilson.
Pearce’s campaign spent more than $964,000 from April 1 to May 14, according to a fundraising summary released today by his campaign.
Wilson spent more than $776,000 during the same period.
Wilson, however, has a larger stockpile of campaign cash for the closing weeks of the hotly contested race. Her campaign cash balance stood at $712,476 as of last week; Pearce reported $247,207 cash on hand.
Pearce raised about $357,000 during the latest campaign finance reporting period, and Wilson received contributions of about $291,000.
Combined,t he two have a cash on hand balance of just $959,683 heading into the general election — and with lots of money being spent by the two on television ads in the final days leading up to the primary, it’s not of the realm of possibility that the winner could come out of the race actually in debt.
Even if the numbers stay where they are now, Udall has three times the cash on hand of Wilson and Pearce — combined. Well, actually 2.996854 times the money of the two Republicans combined.
Not the way one wants to start the general election.
NM-Sen: Udall Outraises Pearce, Wilson Combined AGAIN
Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP
Hat tip to Heath Haussamen
For the second quarter in a row, Tom Udall outraised both Republican candidates — combined. The $1.3 million he raised 
in the first quarter was about $350,000 more than the $943,000 the Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce campaigns raised combined.
I wrote his fundraising success in the fourth quarter of 2007 was astonishing. To do so two quarters in a row is beyond astonishing. It shows that Udall clearly has more momentum than either Pearce or Wilson.
Wilson topped the Republican side with $517,000, or less than half of Udall’s take, while Pearce raised just $426,000; or slightly more than one third of Udall’s fundraising number.
Pearce reported spending $433,000 in the first quarter and ended with slightly more than $850,000 cash on hand. In other words, Pearce had a negative cash flow in the first quarter of 2008 despite raising more money than he did in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Udall has $2.6 million in the bank, half a million dollars more than Wilson has raised total in the campaign.
NM-Sen: Udall Outraises Pearce and Wilson COMBINED
Tom Udall is a part of the True Blue New Mexico donation campaign.
This post is crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.
I wrote earlier about Tom Udall’s impressive fundraising total: more than a million dollars in a single quarter for a candidate in a Senatorial race. A race for Senator in New Mexico. This isn’t exactly New York or California where we are accustomed to seeing politicians raise huge amounts of money for these races. Even important federal races; while Heather Wilson raised nearly $5 million in 2006, she didn’t do so in the fourth quarter of 2005.
But then comes some news that Udall not only raised an insane amount of money; it was actually more than both GOP candidates combined in the third quarter.
U.S. Rep. Tom Udall raised more than $1 million for his Senate bid during the fourth quarter of 2007, beating the combined total raised by the two leading Republicans in the race, U.S. Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson.
Udall raised more than a million dollars, as I mentioned before. So what did Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce raise in that same time period (actually, more on the time period later)?
Read more under the fold.
Wilson came in second in fundraising for the quarter, raising just under $517,000. She spent just under $194,000 and begins 2008 with almost $1.1 million in the bank.
[…]
Pearce reported raising just under $426,000 for the quarter, spending just under $206,000 and having almost $820,000 on hand.
Remember, the two Republican candidates will be forced to spend money on a primary battle, while Udall will be free to conserve and continue to accrue money during the same time period. Did someone say time period?
Udall entered the race in November. Wilson entered within 48 hours of Domenici’s retirement in early October. Pearce entered mid-October. So Udall had less time to raise money, and still outraised the combined efforts of both his rivals.
Astonishing.
NM-Sen: Udall Ahead in Primary, General Election Polling
Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.
Another SurveyUSA poll was released, and this time, they included primaries in their polling. Not only that, they polled an amazing 1700+ people, resulting in some ridiculously-low MOEs (below three percent). So these are some pretty accurate polls. enough jibber-jabber, let’s get straight to the numbers.
In the Republican primary, Heather Wilson is surprisingly strong and is trouncing Steve Pearce, 56-37. Yes, you read that correctly, Wilson is already twenty points ahead of her Southern NM counterpart, with only four percent undecided.
In the Democratic primary, Tom Udall is similarly ahead of Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez, by a 62-32 margin. This is even larger than the internal poll released by Udall, which showed Udall ahead of Chavez by a 50-30. Since then, Santa Fe small businessman and green-developer Don Wiviott has dropped out of the Senate race to pursue Udalls now-open House seat.
In the general, Udall is still looking strong, though the gap has begun to close a bit between Udall and his Republican opponents. Chavez, however, continues to bounce around the polls.
Trendlines from polls taken [10/27-10/30] and (10/05-10/08).
Pearce (R) 40% [–] (37)
Udall (D) 54% [–] (55)
Undecided 5% [–]Pearce (R) 52% [43] (54)
Chavez (D) 42% [48] (35)
Undecided 7% [9] (9)Wilson (R) 41% [–] (38)
Udall (D) 56% [–] (56)
Undecided 3% [–]Wilson (R) 47% [44] (48)
Chavez (D) 46% [48] (44)
Undecided 7% [8] (8)
Where Udall really distinguishes himself is among the self-described moderates and liberals.
Against Pearce, Chavez garners the support of just 4 percent of moderates and 68 percent of liberals. Compare this to Udall, who has the support of 63 percent of moderates and 85 percent of liberals. This is a shocking disparity for Chavez, showing that liberal Democrats really, really do not like Chavez.
The same can be seen against Heather Wilson. Chavez has the support of just 51 percent of moderates and a better 73 percent of liberals. But Udall eclipses both of those numbers, with 66 percent of moderates and 86 percent of liberals.
Similar numbers can be seen among party identification, with Udall doing better among both Democrats and Independents than Chavez. And, it goes without saying, Udall does better than either Wilson or Pearce in these categories as well. Among Independents, the only match-up where the Republican does better is Pearce vs Chavez.
The polls were taken 11/16/07 through 11/18/07 by SurveyUSA.