Tag: Heather Wilson

There is much talk about the New Mexico Senate race, about how this is one of the top pick-up opportunities for us in 2008, but considering this, there has been a surprising lack of analysis of the primary fields (this is especially true of the Republican field). It is very important to take a good look at both fields and look at what is each one's strengths, weaknesses, and get a good insight into what the general election might look like depending on who is running.

The Democrats 

Most of us are already pretty much aware of how the Democrats stack up with each other, and pretty much understand where their primary will go, but for the hell of it, let's look at it again: 

Tom Udall – Udall is generally seen at the frontrunner for both the Democratic primary and the General election. In the primary Udall's strengths include strong support from both the national and state party, strong enthusiasm from the grassroots, electability, a solid base of support from the Democratic stronghold in the third district and state-wide recognition from being attorney general. His possible weaknesses include his lack of running for a competitive race leaves him feeling complaciant.

 Martin Chavez: Chavez is the underdog, decidedly in the primary and less obviously, in the general election. His main strengths in the primary include his ability to claim that he is an “outsider” candidate, that he has run in a competitive city and managed to win, thus giving him some experience in competitive elections. His weaknesses are that his support among the Democratic base is both shallow and narrow, local Democrats don't like him; he already lost a statewide election to a relatively unpopular governor, his fundraising base is limited (more so with Richardson's state organization likely to work against Chavez); and the only possible avenue to grant him victory is to smear Udall which will further harm his campaign. Chavez is the “Republican-lite” candidate.

 Tom Udall is the odds-on favorite to win the primary, because he has a much wider and deeper base of support among Democrats than Chavez and has a much better fundraising advantage, and polls and money tend to move each other.

 

 The Republicans

This is the race which is not quite as clear-cut as the Democrats. There have been many people who seem to think Steve Pearce is favored to win the nomination, but just how accurate is that? Let's look into it:

 Steve Pearce: Well, like I mentioned above, Pearce seems to be considered the favorite to win the Republican primary. Pearce's major strengths in the primary include a stronger support base than Wilson with state Republicans (representing what we refer to as “Little Texas”). His weaknesses are that he has not really fought a competitive election, and while his base is good, he doesn't show the ability to make gains nor does he seem to have a very strong fundraising base. In addition to this, he doesn't appear to be electable (state Democrats agree that they would have no problem beating Pearce in November), this can very easily be used against him.

Heather Wilson: Wilson is seen as being the underdog for the nomination, yet seen as a stronger candidate in the general election (at least compared to Pearce). Her strengths in the primary include a better campaign organization and experience in winning despite being the underdog (or simply put, she's a better candidate than Pearce). Her weaknesses include a much weaker level of base support among Republican grassroots (she doesn't inspire all that much enthusiasm among the Conservative base). Wilson is essentially “Democrat-lite”

I understand why people think that Pearce is the front-runner for the nomination, but honestly, Wilson's in a much better position to win it than people . She's got a lot of experience in fighting uphill battles, and Pearce, while having a stronger support base among Republicans, is going to have a hard time expanding on it. With Udall likely to seize the Democratic nomination, Republicans are probably more open to elect their “warrior”, so to speak. I don't think I can call anyone the true “favorite” here, but my gut tells me that Wilson is going to win the nomination.

 

 General Match-ups

 Tom Udall vs. Steve Pearce: This is basically the clash of the bases, and Udall is heavily favored to win this fight. Plainly put, they both faced the same type of challengers in 2004 and 2006, throwaways, yet Udall took 69% and 75% respectively while Pearce only took 60% in both elections. Udall's support base is stronger, he is going to be better financed, and he starts off with a solid lead. Pearce doesn't have the campaigning skills nor the financial organization to match Udall, period.

 Martin Chavez vs. Steve Pearce: This is Republican-lite vs. Republican, with Pearce slightly favored to win. Yeah, I know that it's a strongly Democratic year and there are more Democrats than Republicans, but the general consensus among the liberal base is that Chavez would be the “lesser-of-two-evils” guy, thus weakening his base of support. Chavez's financial number would likely improve if he won the Democratic nomination, but he still would likely have less money than Pearce (of course the DSCC would be more than able to make up the difference and then some). If you can't count on your base to vote for you, it makes it difficult to win. Chavez might be able to make up the difference with moderates and independents, but his loss in 1998 against then-Gov. Johnson, makes this argument seem less plausible.

 Tom Udall vs. Heather Wilson: This is the Democrat vs. Democrat-lite race, with Udall favored (though not nearly as heavily as the Udall vs. Pearce one). Basically Wilson suffers from base-skepticism (much like Chavez does). The difference between Wilson's predicament and Chavez's predicament is that she is a much better candidate than Chavez in that she can probably rally her base to vote against Tom Udall than Chavez would be able to to vote against Steve Pearce. Having said that, Udall, in addition to having a more solid support base than Wilson, will also enjoy a financial advantage, especially with the DSCC able to dump money into the race. The real danger that Udall will face is becoming too comfortable with the lead, Heather Wilson is dangerous in that she knows how to come back from behind and she knows how to run a solid campaign. Like I said before, Udall is favored to win this race, but Wilson is definitely a threat which Udall would have to take very seriously.

 Martin Chavez vs. Heather Wilson: The battle of the lites, with Wilson the favorite to win. Here's where neither base likes either candidate, but in this case, the Democratic base dislikes Chavez more than the Republican base dislikes Wilson. Wilson, whatever her flaws, at least had the brains to not declare support for Bingaman's re-election. Wilson will have a solid fundraising advantage over Chavez, a better campaign organization, and is an adept campaigner compared to Chavez. On top of that, the only way Chavez wins the nomination to fight Wilson will be to smear Tom Udall, which will leave a lot of bitterness towards Chavez among Democrats, thus making it even harder to secure the base. Simply put, Wilson will beat Chavez if it comes down to it.

Looks like Heather Wilson’s much-hyped fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney in DC tonight was a bit of a bust:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) was expected to raise about $110,000 for her Senate campaign Thursday night at a Washington fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney, according to a source close to Wilson. […]

Wilson’s fundraiser, held at the Capitol Hill Club, was set to raise about half of the $110,000 from political action committees and half from personal contributions.

In fairness, $110K is not a bad haul for a fundraiser.  But this wasn’t just any other fundraiser — this was an event with one of the heaviest hitters on the GOP bench, Grand Moff Cheney himself.  For comparison’s sake, let’s flashback to September, when Cheney raised a much healthier $275,000 for Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO), who will be facing a competitive race against ex-Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (D) next year.  A few short months later and the combined powers of Wilson and Cheney could barely crack $100K for one of the top tier Senate races in the nation next year?  Weak.

Or perhaps Cheney’s heart just wasn’t into it.  The event wasn’t a formal endorsement of Wilson’s campaign, so perhaps he spent the evening sighing wistfully and thinking of Steve Pearce.

(From the diaries. Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP. – promoted by James L.)

Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez has been touting his roots to New Mexico.  Just take a look at his bio on his campaign site:

A native son of New Mexico, Martin Chávez was born and raised in Albuquerque, New Mexico. His family’s roots in New Mexico have been traced to the 1500s.

Many New Mexicans who have had family in the state for generations are proud of their “native roots”.  These are the people who can name their family back to the Spanish settlers.  But the Albuquerque Tribune asked an interesting question: What role will being the only “native son” play in the Senate election?

After doing a bit of research, probably not much.

“When given a choice, New Mexicans usually prefer a native son.”
-Mark Fleisher, Martin Chavez Campaign Manager

It sounds great.  Sounds completely plausible; after all, even Stephen Colbert planned on running for President (but only in South Carolina) as a “favorite son.”

But in New Mexico, where you were born or grew up does not seem to make much of a difference in whether or not New Mexicans will vote for you.  After all, as the Tribune article wrote:

[A]ll three of the other leading contenders for the Senate – Reps. Tom Udall, a Santa Fe Democrat, Heather Wilson, an Albuquerque Republican, and Steve Pearce, a Hobbs Republican – were born outside New Mexico.

They are all Representatives with multiple elections under their belt — and have defeated “native sons” along the way.

Most recently, Heather Wilson defeated Patricia Madrid in the 2006 election by less than a thousand votes.  While Madrid was born in Las Cruces, NM, Wilson only moved to Albuquerque in 1991. 

In the Second District, Steve Pearce defeated native son Gary King (Stanley, NM) in 2004.  And King even has the pedigree of a father (three-time governor Bruce King) who was also born in New Mexico.  Pearce did, however, move to Hobbs at the age of two.

Udall has easily defeated all comers in the Third Congressional District in recent years, but his closest call came against then-incumbent Bill Redmond; a Chicago native.  Before Redmond, the seat was held by now Gov. Bill Richardson.

Richardson was born in Pasadena, CA, and did not move to Santa Fe, NM until 1978.  He ran for Congress against longtime incumbent Manuel Lujan in 1980 and lost.  He succeeded in 1982.  Richardson defeated John Sanchez (55-39) in 2002; Sanchez was a native of Albuquerque.  He then easily defeated Santa Fe-born John Dendahl in 2006, with a record margin.

The last time Chavez ran for statewide office, for governor in 1998, he lost to Gary Johnson.  Johnson was born in South Dakota.  I could not find, however, when exactly Johnson moved to New Mexico.

While Chavez will continue to tout his nativeness to the state, in the grand scheme of things… it probably doesn’t make a whole lot of a difference.

Cross Posted at MyDD.Com and OpenLeft.Com

The word in New Mexico circles is that despite his announcement, Congressman Udall is still being urged to run for the Senate. If  “Udall for Senate” gives you the same kind butterflies in your stomach as it gives me, please help urge him to run! Send Tom Udall the message that we want him as our next Senator by sending a small, $5 contribution to his campaign.

It seems like whoever you talk to in Washington and most importantly, in New Mexico, people agree that Tom Udall is our hero candidate. Obviously he needs to step up and run.

A move to run after announcing otherwise is not without precedent and you don't hear anyone complaining about the last guy who did it. In August of 2005, now Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown announced that he would not run against former-Senator Mike DeWine in Ohio. For the next two months, the grassroots urged him to reconsider his decision for the people of Ohio and for people across the nation. He eventually reversed his decision and went on to win the seat for Democrats, helping to give us control of the US Senate.

We need to send Congressman Udall that same message (here's another chance to donate that $5!). The people of New Mexico want him to run and people in Washington and across the United States hope that he'll help us to increase our majority in the Senate by turning Senator Domenici's seat blue!

Tom Udall is the best choice for New Mexico AND for the country as we work towards building the Democratic majority in the Senate. I already wrote a bit about his background, including a bit about his family and his cash on hand that he could use for his Senate campaign committee. But there are other, better reasons for Tom Udall to be the next Senator from New Mexico.

For one, he's a good progressive. He's pro-choice, an environmentalist, a defender of civil liberties and civil rights, and one of the great supporters for veterans in the Democratic Party today. In fact, during his time as a minority member in the Congress, he took the junior seat on the Veteran's Committee in addition to his regular committee portfolio.

In the first polling out about the race in New Mexico, Tom Udall beats both Republicans by 18 points! Governor Richardson is the only other New Mexican who polls as high. Representative Udall could afford to leave his safe seat in the north with these kinds of numbers, run hard for the Senate, and win. He could leave his House seat knowing that another Democrat (and there are many) could easily keep it in Dem control.

In terms of numbers, this just makes sense. Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) and Congressman Steve Pearce (R) are the two leading contenders to replace Senator Domenici on the Republican side (Pearce has formed an exploratory committee and will announce his intentions in the next two weeks, while Wilson declared less than 24 hours after Domenici's announcement and after weeks of traveling statewide). The numbers tell us that both beat current Dem candidates Chavez and Wiviott by small-to-wide margins. The following summary of the numbers comes from the Democracy For New Mexico blog.

 

Starting with Republican candidate Steven Pearce, Congressman from New Mexico's 2nd District:
*    Pearce loses to Congressman Tom Udall by 18 points
*    loses to Governor Bill Richardson by 24 points
*    defeats Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez by 21 points
*    defeats former Attorney General Patricia Madrid by 16 points
*    and defeats businessman Don Wiviott by 35 points.
Now to Republican candidate Heather Wilson, Congresswoman from New Mexico's 1st Congressional District:
*    Wilson loses to Udall by 18 points (same as Pearce),
*    loses to Richardson by 27 points (Wilson runs 3 points weaker than Pearce),
*    defeats Chavez by 4 points (Wilson runs 17 points weaker than Pearce),
*    effectively ties Patricia Madrid (Wilson runs 15 points weaker than Pearce)
*    and defeats Wiviott by 17 points (Wilson runs 18 points weaker than Pearce).

 

Someone needs to put these numbers on the Congressman's desk and tell him that it's time to run.

We know that Udall's numbers aren't fluff, either. He's run statewide before and won as Attorney General, twice! Since then, Udall has remained a proud defender of the Constitution and our rights. He was one of the original 66 Members of Congress to stand up with courage against the PATRIOT Act that was first railroaded through the House, forcing most Representatives to vote on a bill they had never read.

This is the kind of leadership and courage we should demand from our leaders and a primary reason why New Mexicans are asking Tom Udall to run for Senate.

Congressman Udall's voting record is solidly progressive. Help in the movement to Draft Tom Udall for Senate today by sending him $5 and the message that he's our best hope!

From The Hill:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M) will run for the New Mexico Senate seat that is expected to open up officially later Thursday when Sen. Pete Domenici (R) declares that he will not seek reelection in 2008, according to a source familiar with Wilson’s decision.

A Wilson candidacy could prove to be a great twofer for Democrats: her involvement in the US Attorney scandal provides plenty of baggage to damage her Senate chances, and she leaves behind yet another open House seat ripe for the picking (at a PVI of D+2.4, Kerry won the district by three points in 2004).

And, from a Schumer statement via e-mail:

“New Mexico is a state where Democrats have a long history of winning elections, and with a deep bench of talented Democratic candidates, we look forward to fielding a nominee who will wage a successful campaign.  We feel very good about our chances to increase the Democratic majority in the Senate next year.”

Let the games begin.

UPDATE: More reaction from CQ Politics:

New Mexico’s two other House members, Democrat Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce, both were said to be mulling bids for the Senate race.

Democratic Rep. Mark Udall of Colorado said his cousin, Tom Udall, has “been planning for this moment,” but noted that Richardson remains a key player in the process. Udall was not expected to announce anything Thursday.
Pearce said he wanted to wait “a respectful time” before making a decision. “We should not be jockeying for position, kicking him out the door,” he said.

In a statement, Richardson said Domenici had been a “respected and powerful champion for New Mexico’s interests” for more than three decades. Tom Reynolds, a spokesman for his presidential campaign, said Richardson remained “100 percent committed to winning the White House.”

Democratic Lt. Gov. Denise Denish, who has been gearing up to run for governor in 2010 when Richardson would be term-limited out of office, said she would consider the Senate race.

“This reshuffles the whole deck in New Mexico,” she said of Domenici’s retirement.

“I’ve been very focused on running for governor and that’s still where my focus is right now, but I think in fairness I need to listen to some people that are talking to me about the possibility of running for this Senate seat and see what they have to say and see what the possibilities are,” she added.

Former New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid also said she was considering a bid for the seat. Madrid lost the 2006 election against Wilson for the 1st Congressional District by fewer than 900 points, and said she expected she would perform better in a statewide contest. “I think that I could run a very credible race,” she said.

It seems that Pete Domenici and Heather Wilson are now both in trouble from both sides of the political spectrum. While the two toers-of-the-GOP-party-line generally don’t expect support from the progressive Dems, when the hawkish Republicans go after them… then they know they’re in trouble.

And this group is spending some serious cash on the two New Mexico Republicans.  According to a list e-mailed from Americans United for Change, reprinted at Daily Kos, the group is spending over $250,000 on these ads targeting Wilson and Domenici.  This is the fourth-most being spent in a single area, remarkable considering two of the other targets are in Philadelphia, PA and Washington DC — much more expensive media markets.  This group really is going after Domenici and Wilson.

I won’t get into the problems with the right-wing ad itself — I’ll let Americans United for Change do that, in a video you can see below the fold, but instead discuss its effects on Domenici and Wilson.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

The funny thing about the attack from a group of Bush supporters is it is based on, for Domenici and Wilson at least, what they have said in the press.  Not on what they have actually done, but what they’ve said.  They’ve talked about a new direction in Iraq, they’ve publicly tried to soften their position on Iraq… but then their actions, their votes, betray them.

Take a look at Domenici on “War and Peace”.  Every single time he has voted on a bill concerning the war in Iraq, he has gone with the hawkish “stay the course” message.  He even was among the majority who voted to protect the Halliburtons of the world by voting “NO on investigating contract awards in Iraq & Afghanistan.”  In other words, Domenici was not only for no-bid contracts, he was also for not investigating the waste of money afterwards.  Not exactly fiscally conservative, is he?

It’s no surprise to anyone with any knowledge of Domenici’s past that he is so hawkish.  But it is a bit ironic that the right-wing group

Heather Wilson, the Congressional Representative for New Mexico’s First Congressional District, has been making the rounds around the state.  Wilson has been making public appearances in, among other places, Las Cruces and Los Alamos; both areas well outside her congressional district.

Joe Monahan draws the obvious conclusion:

Read it under the fold. Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

She’s recently been in Clovis, Los Alamos and Las Cruces. Now one of the Alligators has an unconfirmed report that ABQ GOP Rep. Heather Wilson has had an appearance slated for Farmington. You know the score, but it bears repeating. Wilson is positioning herself for the US senate seat held by Senator Domenici–just in case. Domenici is indeed running for a seventh term in ’08, but frail health is the opponent that could keep him out of the race. He is 75.

Some Democrats complain that Wilson is in denial after having only won her ’06 reelect by less than 900 votes and that appearing around the state is a sign of arrogance. But with the Dems set to start a heated primary to see who will win the right to challenge her in ’08, Wilson is largely out of their line of fire, giving her the opportunity to roam freely. A US senate opening in NM is a once in a generation event, if that. If Wilson has any ambition for the seat, she must stay positioned, regardless of the current political odds. Ditto for GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce who is doing the same, but further below the radar than the determined congresswoman.

  I don’t quite agree with the first sentence of the second paragraph — what Democrats are “complain[ing]” about Wilson being in denial?  Of course she is, she is not safe in her own seat, but Democrats will not “complain” about this.

Instead, they will view it as an opportunity to not only pick up a seat in the House, but also a seat in the Senate, if another viable statewide candidate steps in from the Democratic side. 

But Wilson wouldn’t even be safe in the Republican primary.  She would face stiff competition from the right in Steve Pearce.  If Domenici retires (a big “if” at this point), there would be a fierce battle between Wilson and Pearce.  And Wilson’s posturing at being a “moderate” (even though she is far from one) will hurt her in a primary. 

So Wilson, on her Tour de New Mexico, has to delicately balance between her purported position as a moderate and a position as a hardcore conservative which would help her in a hard-fought primary. 

Of course, all this is moot if Domenici steps aside after the primary in favor of Wilson.  This wouldn’t be the first time — remember the ol’ Damron-Dendahl switcheroo?

(From the diaries with minor edits. – promoted by James L.)

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP, Daily Kos and MyDD.

Rumors of Democrats getting ready to take on Heather Wilson for her seat in Congress have been floating around since November.

Clearly, whichever Democrat goes against Wilson will have money behind him or her (more on that below).  So who is stepping up to the plate?  State Rep. Al Park?  State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino?  Former Albuquerque City Councilman Eric Griego?  Nope.

First up, we have the potential rock star of the group, Albuquerque City Council President Martin Heinrich.  Heinrich is popular, young, and a favorite of progressives.  Not to mention that he has his own website, which is always a plus for a blogger.

Joe Monahan reports he was told by Heinrich Monday, “Heinrich may try to clear the field and announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the congressional seat held by Republican Heather Wilson within the next several weeks.”

So who would he be clearing from the field?  Besides the aforementioned names, maybe Rick Homans.  So who exactly is Rick Homans?

Currently, Homans is the New Mexico Economic Development Secretary.  He also ran for mayor in 2001… where he finished fifth behind current Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, former Bernalillo County District Attorney Bob Schwartz, the at-the-time incumbent Jim Baca and city Councilor Mike McEntee. 

And according to a source of Heath Haussamen, he is considering a run for Congress.  Most significantly, the source told Haussamen “Gov. Bill Richardson has pledged to support Homans in a Democratic primary.”

But if Heinrich steps into the race, not many (if any) Democrats would stand a chance in a primary against the city council President.

It’s about time local area Democrats stepped up to the plate to take on Wilson.  Having quotes from potential challengers about her fauxs pas from here to election day would build a nice narrative in the minds of undecided voters. 

Even better, they could start raising money to take on the inevitable large warchest Wilson will raise to try to save her job.  And they will have support from the DCCC.

After all, Wilson’s seat is perennially a target for Democrats, and the DCCC began attacking her for her controversial phone call to former US Attorney David Iglesias.  Iglesias was subsequently fired, and believes it was due to political pressure from Wilson and Sen. Pete Domenici.

The DCCC has also started a website called the Heather Wilson Watch to keep tabs on Heather Wilson.  This is similar to the now defunct Washington Wilson Watch run by the Patricia Madrid campaign.  Currently, HWW is just dedicated to her role in the Iglesias firing; but it can easily be expanded to show her stances on many issues.

For some reason, when I say or type “dirty tricks”, I think of Gollum from Lord of the Rings saying, “tricksy little hobbits…”.  But anyway, I went to Talking Points Memo, and lo and behold, I see the first item is about New Mexico!

It linked to a TPM Muckraker story about the dirty tricks by the GOP.  The Associated Press reported on the story, and in the story, the GOP claimed it only happened once, to one voter.  But NM Democratic Party director Matt Farrauto says that’s just not true.

More on the dark side of the moon.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP and as a diary at Daily Kos

“I am standing in front of four people who had it happen to them, and there’s a fifth woman who contacted me this morning,” Farrauto told me. The group was standing in the courthouse lobby, he said, waiting to meet with a judge who could order the GOP’s calls to stop.

The Albuquerque Journal mentions the controversy in their Monday-before-Election-Day article.  Again, there is the claim by the Republicans it only happened to one person.

But Marta Kramer, executive director of the state Republican Party, said the accusation was bogus. She said a volunteer on the Republican phone bank inadvertently called a Democrat who had the same name as two other Republicans.

Right.  Those other four or five people who have come forward and actually realized this is unethical and misleading information?  They don’t exist.  Not to mention we don’t know how many Democrats don’t realize the information is wrong.

Joe Monahan notes that Republicans are getting misleading mailers; I think we can assume these are being sent to everyone.

[B]log photog Mark Bralley, a Republican, said he received a mailer from his party directing him to the wrong polling location.

So there are misleading mailers along with those misleading phone calls floating about.

To see Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Jeff Bingaman’s responses, see my earlier post.