Tag: New Mexico

Oh boy, do I love nasty primaries — on the GOP side of the aisle, that is.

For a while, it looked like Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, a much-hyped recruit by the NRCC, might have a clear shot at the Republican nomination to succeed Senate aspirant Heather Wilson for her House seat.  Well, it looks like that dream has ended, as GOP state Senator Joe Carraro announced his intention to challenge White for the nomination today:

“White has state party apparatus behind him, but once people understand that he has no substance – policy experience and knowledge of issues – I believe that business interests from throughout the state will join with my effort to make sure that we have someone running for Congress that knows what they’re doing – no disrespect,” Carraro said. “Oil and gas, economic development and defense interests need to understand future implications for our state and contribute to my campaign. My job is to show them that I can get job done.”

Carraro said he expects “a tough race with lots of dirty campaigning – that was indicated by intimidation brought to all candidates thinking about running against Darren White.”

Yeah, you tell ’em, Joe!  “Just say no” to DC-sponsored coronations!

There is much talk about the New Mexico Senate race, about how this is one of the top pick-up opportunities for us in 2008, but considering this, there has been a surprising lack of analysis of the primary fields (this is especially true of the Republican field). It is very important to take a good look at both fields and look at what is each one's strengths, weaknesses, and get a good insight into what the general election might look like depending on who is running.

The Democrats 

Most of us are already pretty much aware of how the Democrats stack up with each other, and pretty much understand where their primary will go, but for the hell of it, let's look at it again: 

Tom Udall – Udall is generally seen at the frontrunner for both the Democratic primary and the General election. In the primary Udall's strengths include strong support from both the national and state party, strong enthusiasm from the grassroots, electability, a solid base of support from the Democratic stronghold in the third district and state-wide recognition from being attorney general. His possible weaknesses include his lack of running for a competitive race leaves him feeling complaciant.

 Martin Chavez: Chavez is the underdog, decidedly in the primary and less obviously, in the general election. His main strengths in the primary include his ability to claim that he is an “outsider” candidate, that he has run in a competitive city and managed to win, thus giving him some experience in competitive elections. His weaknesses are that his support among the Democratic base is both shallow and narrow, local Democrats don't like him; he already lost a statewide election to a relatively unpopular governor, his fundraising base is limited (more so with Richardson's state organization likely to work against Chavez); and the only possible avenue to grant him victory is to smear Udall which will further harm his campaign. Chavez is the “Republican-lite” candidate.

 Tom Udall is the odds-on favorite to win the primary, because he has a much wider and deeper base of support among Democrats than Chavez and has a much better fundraising advantage, and polls and money tend to move each other.

 

 The Republicans

This is the race which is not quite as clear-cut as the Democrats. There have been many people who seem to think Steve Pearce is favored to win the nomination, but just how accurate is that? Let's look into it:

 Steve Pearce: Well, like I mentioned above, Pearce seems to be considered the favorite to win the Republican primary. Pearce's major strengths in the primary include a stronger support base than Wilson with state Republicans (representing what we refer to as “Little Texas”). His weaknesses are that he has not really fought a competitive election, and while his base is good, he doesn't show the ability to make gains nor does he seem to have a very strong fundraising base. In addition to this, he doesn't appear to be electable (state Democrats agree that they would have no problem beating Pearce in November), this can very easily be used against him.

Heather Wilson: Wilson is seen as being the underdog for the nomination, yet seen as a stronger candidate in the general election (at least compared to Pearce). Her strengths in the primary include a better campaign organization and experience in winning despite being the underdog (or simply put, she's a better candidate than Pearce). Her weaknesses include a much weaker level of base support among Republican grassroots (she doesn't inspire all that much enthusiasm among the Conservative base). Wilson is essentially “Democrat-lite”

I understand why people think that Pearce is the front-runner for the nomination, but honestly, Wilson's in a much better position to win it than people . She's got a lot of experience in fighting uphill battles, and Pearce, while having a stronger support base among Republicans, is going to have a hard time expanding on it. With Udall likely to seize the Democratic nomination, Republicans are probably more open to elect their “warrior”, so to speak. I don't think I can call anyone the true “favorite” here, but my gut tells me that Wilson is going to win the nomination.

 

 General Match-ups

 Tom Udall vs. Steve Pearce: This is basically the clash of the bases, and Udall is heavily favored to win this fight. Plainly put, they both faced the same type of challengers in 2004 and 2006, throwaways, yet Udall took 69% and 75% respectively while Pearce only took 60% in both elections. Udall's support base is stronger, he is going to be better financed, and he starts off with a solid lead. Pearce doesn't have the campaigning skills nor the financial organization to match Udall, period.

 Martin Chavez vs. Steve Pearce: This is Republican-lite vs. Republican, with Pearce slightly favored to win. Yeah, I know that it's a strongly Democratic year and there are more Democrats than Republicans, but the general consensus among the liberal base is that Chavez would be the “lesser-of-two-evils” guy, thus weakening his base of support. Chavez's financial number would likely improve if he won the Democratic nomination, but he still would likely have less money than Pearce (of course the DSCC would be more than able to make up the difference and then some). If you can't count on your base to vote for you, it makes it difficult to win. Chavez might be able to make up the difference with moderates and independents, but his loss in 1998 against then-Gov. Johnson, makes this argument seem less plausible.

 Tom Udall vs. Heather Wilson: This is the Democrat vs. Democrat-lite race, with Udall favored (though not nearly as heavily as the Udall vs. Pearce one). Basically Wilson suffers from base-skepticism (much like Chavez does). The difference between Wilson's predicament and Chavez's predicament is that she is a much better candidate than Chavez in that she can probably rally her base to vote against Tom Udall than Chavez would be able to to vote against Steve Pearce. Having said that, Udall, in addition to having a more solid support base than Wilson, will also enjoy a financial advantage, especially with the DSCC able to dump money into the race. The real danger that Udall will face is becoming too comfortable with the lead, Heather Wilson is dangerous in that she knows how to come back from behind and she knows how to run a solid campaign. Like I said before, Udall is favored to win this race, but Wilson is definitely a threat which Udall would have to take very seriously.

 Martin Chavez vs. Heather Wilson: The battle of the lites, with Wilson the favorite to win. Here's where neither base likes either candidate, but in this case, the Democratic base dislikes Chavez more than the Republican base dislikes Wilson. Wilson, whatever her flaws, at least had the brains to not declare support for Bingaman's re-election. Wilson will have a solid fundraising advantage over Chavez, a better campaign organization, and is an adept campaigner compared to Chavez. On top of that, the only way Chavez wins the nomination to fight Wilson will be to smear Tom Udall, which will leave a lot of bitterness towards Chavez among Democrats, thus making it even harder to secure the base. Simply put, Wilson will beat Chavez if it comes down to it.

The nomination to succeed Rep. Tom Udall is not the only prize that ambitious New Mexico Democrats are competing for this primary season — the nomination to contest the Republican-tilting open seat of Rep. Steve Pearce is drawing plenty of Democratic names.  Here’s the Dem field so far:

Bill McCamley, a Doña Ana County Commissioner who’s been running for most of the year.

Al Kissling, a retired Presbyterian minister and the ’06 nominee.

Harry Teague, a former Lea County Commissioner and oilman, known as a conservative Democrat.  He raked in $175,000 at his first fundraiser and also has the capability (and willingness) to self-fund.

Joseph Cervantes, a state Representative, who announced his candidacy this evening.  Cervantes may have the advantage of being the only Hispanic name on the ballot in the primary.

Frank McKinnon, a businessman from Roswell.

I don’t know any of these candidates well enough to ascertain “electability”, but a few look like credible options.

No doubt about it: at a PVI of R+5.7, this is a pretty red district.  But the cash-strapped NRCC is stressed about the possibility of needing to mount a defense here.  Perhaps one of these Democrats will confirm the GOP’s worst fears.

One wrinkle, though, as mentioned in the diaries by fbihop:

What makes this so interesting is not every candidate will get their names on the ballot.  In fact, at most, four candidates from each party will get their names on the ballot, thanks to a new law enacted by the state legislature this past session.  To get his/her name on a ballot, each candidate must garner the support of 20 percent of convention goers.

Heath Haussamen, who by now should be a household name among political junkies, again has the goods on Don Wiviott, a developer who had been running a longshot bid for Senate for a good portion of the year:

Wiviott said Udall is a friend, in addition to being his congressman. He will defer to him in the Senate race, but said he plans, in running for Udall’s House seat, to stay in the fight to end the Iraq war, protect the environment and improve the education system.

“You have to have the courage of your convictions. That’s why I started in this. That’s why I remain in it,” Wiviott said. “I’m committed to either raise or spend whatever it takes to win (the House race).”

Wiviott will be joining a potentially crowded field for the nomination for the Dem-leaning seat.  Other names mentioned as possible candidates include Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya, Sheriff Greg Solano, State Auditor Hector Balderas, ex-state Rep. Patsy Trujillo, Espanola Mayor Joseph Maestas, state Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan, and New Mexico Highlands Regent Javier Gonzales.

That’s a long list of possibilities.  Whatever the case, the next nominee for this D+5.5 district should be suitably progressive.  While I was never convinced that Wiviott, a political neophyte, had the necessary gravitas for the Senate race, he’ll deserve a long look — along with the other candidates — for the House nomination.

Race Tracker: NM-03

It looks like Rep. Tom Udall is well beyond merely “reconsidering” his decision not to run for the open Senate seat of retiring Republican Pete Domenici next year — local sources say that he’s actively assembling campaign team, according to Heath Haussamen:

A number of sources are confirming that U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., has moved beyond simply reconsidering whether he should run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici. He’s now trying to put the pieces in place for a Senate run.

That’s sort of obvious, even without the confirmation from sources. Udall considered a Senate run once and decided against it. To reconsider now – and confirm it publicly – means he must be very serious.

With so many Democrats in New Mexico and Washington unsatisfied with the Democrats currently running for Senate, Udall will have no difficulty assembling the team and raising the money he needs for a run. That, coupled with his attempt to put a campaign together, means a Udall Senate run is likely.

Additionally, his press secretary is publicly acknowledging Udall’s decision to give the race another look:

Udall’s press secretary is now confirming that the congressman is reconsidering.

“New Mexicans have urged Tom Udall to reconsider running for the United States Senate, and he’s doing just that,” Marissa Padilla said.

Sounds like this is one “draft” movement that may yield results.  If Udall gets in, this race will be a great example of the type of “DSCC primary meddling” that we can all get behind.

UPDATE: Haussamen says that Lt. Gov. Denish has taken her name out of consideration:

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has decided to forgo a 2008 U.S. Senate run and instead run for governor in 2010 as she originally planned.

A knowledgeable source confirmed on Thursday that Denish had decided against running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici.

If so, I’d take that as a good sign that Udall is really giving the race a serious look.  It’s no secret that Denish would prefer to be Governor, and would have been glad to pass the race off to someone else who could win it.  Perhaps Udall tipped her off that she no longer had to consider a bid.

The Albuquerque Journal reports that Rep. Tom Udall is reconsidering his earlier decision not to run for New Mexico's open Senate seat: 

I just got a call from someone very knowledgable about N.M. Democratic politics who says Rep. Tom Udall's people are calling the party's heavy hitters in the state this morning to inform them he is reconsidering a run for the U.S. Senate.
…

A rapidly growing “Draft Udall” movement online, as well as major arm-twisting from the national Democratic elite (including Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer), has convinced the congressman to reconsider.
…

Udall, a former two-term New Mexico attorney general, has proven he can win statewide and his polling numbers are among the best of any New Mexico politician. Any ambitious politician would take a hard look at the more prestigious Senate senate seat.

Incidentally, I also heard yesterday from separate – but equally reliable sources – that Gov. Bill Richardson called Udall yesterday to tell him he DOES NOT plan to run for the Senate and would stay out of Udall’s way if the congressman decides to jump in.

Tom Udall's entry into the race would certainly shake things up, greatly increasing our chances of picking up the Senate seat while opening all three of the state's House seats. To keep the momentum going, visit DraftUdall.com.

Former New Mexico AG and 2006 candidate against GOP Rep. Heather Wilson made it official today — she won’t be seeking another bid:

Madrid notified the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other groups today that she won’t run.

“I think that this is a Democratic year and I would have been the strongest person in the race, but this is just not the year for me,” Madrid said in a telephone interview.

That’s largely due to the fact that her father, who lives in Las Cruces, is not well.

“I’ve spent quite a number of years away from my family, particularly in my last year in office, and they need me and I need them,” she said.

Despite the fear that an open seat race might crowd the Democratic primary, former Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich looks to be in a good position, with several potential challengers taking a pass on the race.

Could the Democratic primary for the right to contest the open seat of Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico get a little more crowded soon?  Heath Haussamen has the goods.

State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, a respected moderate, will announce his intentions on November 4th.  Cervantes could be an interesting candidate with the potential to tap into the sizable Latino vote in the district.  Last week he sounded optimistic about a run:

Cervantes said he is “doing what it takes right now, at this stage, and it would be a great privilege to represent the district. I think the country clearly is looking for change and I’ve worked for seven years in a legislative body doing the same thing in Santa Fe.”

Cervantes would join ’06 nominee Al Kissling, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague in the Democratic primary.

While this R+5.7 district doesn’t sit at the top of the list of Democratic pick-up opportunities this cycle, it’s worth mentioning that the NRCC was trying their best to prevent Pearce from giving Democrats another open seat opportunity here.  An anonymous national GOP official quoted by Haussamen summed up the situation for prospective local Republican candidates in the district:

“Somebody’s going to have to sink or swim in that district,” the official said. “Somebody’s going to have to do that on their own.”

Sounds like another opportunity for Democrats to test the limits of the cash-strapped NRCC.

Race Tracker: NM-02

Pass the popcorn!  It’s time for another divisive Republican primary.  Mere days after jumping into the New Mexico Senate race, Rep. Steve Pearce is already being accused of breaking House ethics rules by his colleague and primary opponent, Heather Wilson:

  Pearce, as part of a campaign-funded “tele town hall,” autodialed an estimated 130,000 GOP members across New Mexico on Thursday evening to chat them up about a vetoed children’s health bill, which he and Wilson disagree on.

  ” …I voted to uphold the veto because this bill has major flaws that are bad for the country, and bad for New Mexico,” Pearce said in his recorded messages leading up to the live, two-hour telephone town hall from his Washington, D.C., home. About 13,000 agreed to stay on the line.

  The Wilson camp, meanwhile, accused Pearce of breaking House ethics rules by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site.

  Wilson deputy finance director Heather Wade in an e-mail to the Journal cited a portion of a House document advising members they cannot advertise their official House Web sites on “materials issued by the campaign.” And Wade maintains the calls were, in effect, campaign materials.

  “In making these phone calls, Mr. Pearce misused taxpayer dollars to run for the Senate…,” Wade said in a written statement.

Nice body blow by Wilson there, who is no paragon of ethics herself.  She certainly isn’t wasting any time getting out in front of the issue.  I look forward to Pearce’s counter-attack, and the ensuing bloodbath.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

 

With the retirement of long-time incumbent Pete Domenici, we are looking at an opportunity we may not see again for a long time. As many who are reading this are likely aware, on the Republican side, Reps. Heather Wilson, the pseudo-moderate representing the first district (which, unfortunately, includes my hometown of Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce, the right-winger who represents the second district (including Las Cruces) will be running against each other in order to gain the Republican nomination for the Senate. Naturally, we need a candidate who can defeat Wilson and Pearce in a general election, but we also want to elect a solid progressive who will stand up for New Mexican citizens, not the corporations.

 

You have all probably already read about the various sites which are already working on drafting Congressman Tom Udall to run for the senate, and many of you are probably asking an important question: why is it so important, not only to support Rep. Udall in a run for senate, but to actively work on drafting him for it?

Tom Udall is a strong progressive who will fight for the people of New Mexico, not the business interests. According to the non-partisan group Project Vote Smart, in 2006, he was given a 100% by NARAL, Planned Parenthood, Citizens for Tax Justice, the National Education Association, the National Association of Elementary School Principals (2005), the National Parent Teacher Association (2004), the League of Conservation Voters, the American Wilderness Coalition, Americans United for the Separation of Church and State, the American Civil Liberties Union, the Alliance for Retired Americans, the AFL-CIO, the SEIU, United Auto Workers, the Children’s Defense Fund, the Arc, the American Public Health Association, Disabled American Veterans, and the American Association of University Women; as well as a 95% from the Public Interest Research Group, the National Organization of Women, and the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights (96%).

In addition to being a solid progressive, Tom Udall is also the strongest Democratic candidate we can muster (except, perhaps for Gov. Richardson, and I think we can all agree we’d like to see Bill as Secretary of State or Vice-President). According to CNN’s Election 2006 and Election 2004 Rep. Udall has won his district by 75% of the vote in 2006 and 70%, compared to Rep. Pearce who only won with 60% of the vote in both 2004 and 2006, and Rep. Wilson only barely broke 50% in 2006 and 55% in 2004. According to a recent Survey USA poll; Udall had an 18 point advantage against both Pearce (55-37) and Wilson (56-38). To put this in perspective, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who is the only major Democrat to declare his candidacy, loses to Pearce by 21 points (35-56) and to Wilson by 4 (44-48). In addition, Tom Udall starts off with state-wide recognition after being New Mexico’s Attorney General during the 1990s. 

In Tom Udall, we have both a solid progressive and a strong candidate to run against either Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce. As such, it is critical we draft Tom Udall for the Senate, not only to strengthen the Democratic majority in congress, but to put a solid progressive and advocate for all New Mexicans. After considering all of this, it should no longer be a question of why we critically need Rep. Udall in the Senate, and anyone who is looking for a strong candidate and a strong progressive voice in the Senate; you should support our movement to draft Tom Udall for Senate.