MA-SEN: Analyzing the Brown/Coakley/Turnout numbers

I’ve crunched the numbers from last Tuesday’s Senate election.  Here are some blog posts with the results of turnout and candidate performance.  

http://bostonmaelections.wordp…

There are details on:

– County results.

– Town-by-town results.

– Boston neighborhood details.

– Comparisons of Coakley results to 2006 Governor Patrick number, who got 55% of the vote.

– Summary of some of the last polls.

Enjoy!  

AZ-Sen: Hayworth Says He Plans to Challenge McCain

Some of the tastiest cat fud yet from Arizona:

Former Arizona Congressman J.D. Hayworth says he is planning to run against John McCain for his U.S. Senate seat.

Hayworth, a Republican, told The Associated Press late Friday he stepped down as host of his radio program on KFYI-AM, a conservative radio talk show in Phoenix. Legally, he would not have been able to remain host of the program and be an active candidate. […]

“We will formally announce at a later time, but we’re moving forward to challenge John McCain,” he said. “I think we all respect John. I think his place in history is secure. But after close to a quarter-century in Washington, it’s time for him to come home.”

He said he wasn’t serious about running against McCain until a recent “outpouring of support” from Arizonans asking him to run changed his mind.

“Arizonans have a clear choice — a clear, commonsense, consistent conservative, or they can remain with a moderate who calls himself a maverick,” Hayworth said.

Pass the popcorn.

UPDATE (David): Can it be that Hayworth really doesn’t have a campaign website? Who the hell announces for a statewide race without one ready to go?

RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-Sen

The Arizona Races: A State of the Field

I’ve followed Arizona politics since I first moved there in 1995.  Though I haven’t lived there full-time in almost a decade, I still read AZ political blogs (like the wonderfully-insidery Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion) regularly and try to keep up with political news there.  Below, I’ve given a rundown of the major Arizona races and added a little analysis, as well as my predictions for November.

AZ-Gov: There are about ten thousand Republicans running for this seat right now, but only three serious candidates: Governor Jan Brewer, State Treasurer Dean Martin, and rich guy/former GOP state party chair John Munger.  (Don’t believe the hype about Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio running; he had a clear shot at the nomination in 2002 and turned it down.)  Brewer is underwater in both primary and general election polling, and is extremely unlikely to survive.  Her handling of the state’s budget crisis seems calculated to anger independents (unhappy with her ineptitude) and Republicans (upset about her attempts to raise the state sales tax) alike.  Munger is an intriguing candidate, in part because of his distance from the hated state legislature, but has stumbled out of the gate.

That leaves Martin, who is one of the stronger candidates the GOP could muster, but who still performs woefully against presumptive Democratic nominee and state Attorney General Terry Goddard.  Goddard is the most popular politician in the state right now, and is trouncing most prospective candidates from both parties by double digits in the polls; Martin gets within eight points, but that’s still a bad place to be when your party controls the Governorship.  The strange thing is that there are candidates who could possibly beat Goddard (Rep. Jeff Flake is the best bet), but they’ve been scared out by Martin’s entrance into the race.  Unless Martin steps it up considerably, look for Goddard to score a rare Dem pickup in November.  Prediction: likely Dem pickup.

AZ-Sen: If John McCain is the nominee here, up-and-coming Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman is the best candidate we’re going to get.  He would run a race similar to Andrew Rice’s in Oklahoma last cycle: raise money, grow his name recognition, but ultimately not pose much of a threat to McCain.  If former Congressman and teabagger darling J.D. Hayworth gets into the Republican primary, however, things get a little more complicated.  Depending on how Hayworth polls against McCain, I could see rich dude, former state party chair, and 2006 Senate nominee Jim Pederson jumping in on the Democratic side.  Pederson would be a strong candidate and could easily support his candidacy with his own cash.  Less likely would be a candidacy by Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, who would have to recant his prior endorsement of McCain to make the race.  Missing from all these possibilities, however, is any real way for a Dem to beat Hayworth, let alone McCain.  I honestly think even Hayworth would make it very difficult for even Pederson to pose much of a threat in this climate, but we can’t rule out the possibility of a seat switch here.  Prediction: likely GOP hold.

AZ-01: The GOP seriously misfired in their candidate recruiting here, digging up former State Senate Majority Leader Rusty Bowers to oppose Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick.  Bowers’ title may sound imposing, but the man hasn’t been in politics in nearly a decade, plus he lives in Phoenix, which is the kiss of death in a rural district that prides itself on its ruralness.  In addition, midterm elections coincide with elections for the Navajo Nation President and Tribal Council, which vastly increases voter turnout on the populous and overwhelmingly-Democratic Nation.  Back in 2002, this turnout boost was good for a poll overperformance of nine points by unknown George Cordova against Rick Renzi.  This district should be winnable for Republicans, but the last time they fielded decent candidates was in the 2002 primary (yes, I know they held the seat for six years after that, but my comment still stands).  Kirkpatrick’s Blue-Doggishness fits the bent of the district, and unless some more solid candidate emerges to primary Bowers, I don’t see her losing.  Prediction: likely Dem hold.

AZ-02: Someday, Democrats will manage to dislodge Focus on the Family-affiliated Rep. Trent Franks from this rapidly bluing but still very red district.  That day will be a beautiful day.  Sadly, that day is not today.  As of now, we don’t even have a candidate, as retiree John Thrasher (whose wife used to be a state rep) isn’t running again.  Prediction: safe GOP hold.

AZ-03: This district just got wild, as John Shadegg’s retirement convinced over half a dozen serious Republican contenders to jump into the race.  How winnable the seat is for businessman John Hulburd, the well-funded Democratic candidate, depends completely on how divisive the Republican primary is and who makes it out alive.  Some of the candidates, like State Rep. Pamela Gorman, are probably unelectable here; others might wipe the floor with Hulburd, but might be so drained by the primary that they don’t run particularly strong campaigns (something similar happened to David Schweikert last cycle in AZ-05).  For now, we have to say that this is a Republican seat in a Republican year, and only in extraordinary circumstances would Hulburd be able to overcome that deficit.  Democratic Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon is talking about running here, too, but his DINO status and previous support for virtually all statewide Republicans would make it difficult for him to beat Hulburd in a primary.  Prediction: likely GOP hold.

AZ-04: No one will beat Rep. Ed Pastor.  No one serious ever runs against Ed Pastor.  Ed Pastor is the safest Congressman in Arizona.  Prediction: safe Dem hold.

AZ-05: Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert is a solid Republican candidate who got completely screwed last cycle.  He won Arizona’s late primary (formerly in September, now changed by federal law to August 31) flat broke and bloodied by state-rep-turned-lobbyist Susan Bitter Smith and three other well-funded candidates.  Still, Schweikert performed well against Rep. Harry Mitchell, and he’s back for a second try in a year much more conducive to Republicans.  This seat was drawn for former Rep. J.D. Hayworth as a safe conservative district, and if Mitchell weren’t a local legend (the guy’s got a 35-foot statue of him in the city of Tempe, I kid you not) we’d lose this in a heartbeat.  As it is, it has to be considered our most vulnerable seat.  One bright spot is that, after vowing to clear the field for Schweikert this time, state Republicans weren’t able to keep rich dude Jim Ward from running against him.  Prediction: tossup.

AZ-06: In 2008, librarian Rebecca Schneider gave Rep. Jeff Flake his first opposition in six years, managing 34% of the vote.  Schneider’s back for a second try, and she’s probably the best we’re ever going to get in this seat.  Flake is the safest Arizona Republican in Congress, but it’s nice to make him get out and actually campaign once in a while.  Prediction: safe GOP hold.

AZ-07: Despite the change in the national mood, this race will play out exactly like it did last time.  And the time before.  The GOP will put up a respectable local candidate who’s not a serious threat to Rep. Raul Grijalva (this time it’s rocket scientist Ruth McClung).  That candidate will lose in the primary to virulent racist Joseph Sweeney.  Grijalva will then paste Sweeney in the general election.  So has it ever been, and so shall it be again.  Prediction: safe Dem hold.

AZ-08: After spending a lot of time trying to build up semi-serious candidate and Iraq vet Jesse Kelly, the GOP has managed to field a very serious candidate in State Sen. and Iraq vet Jonathan Paton.  Paton is widely viewed as one of the few reasonable Republican members of the state legislature, and he is a lot smarter and better-liked than was State Senate President Tim Bee, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ opponent last time.  Nevertheless, he’s still a member of the hated Legislature, and Giffords is still the smartest Democrat in the state.  Paton is probably the most formidable opponent Giffords has ever faced, but if Giffords loses this seat, it’ll be part of a 70-seat landslide.  Prediction: likely Dem hold.

Seats in order of likelihood of flipping: AZ-Gov, AZ-05, AZ-03, AZ-08, AZ-01, AZ-Sen, AZ-07, AZ-02, AZ-06, AZ-04.

Predicted outcome: Dems pick up the Governorship; all other seats stay in the same partisan hands (though I’m least sanguine about AZ-05).

IN-Sen: Pence Will Decide This Weekend

Something to keep an eye on over the next few days:

Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) says he and his wife will “take the weekend” to decide whether to run for the Senate this year.

Pence said Friday on WIBC radio host Greg Garrison’s program that he’s been “flattered” and “humbled” by calls for him to challenge Sen. Evan Bayh (D). […]

Though Pence hasn’t come to a decision, he seemed to lay out a stronger case for continuing to serve in the House, where he has a safe seat. Pence noted that he holds a leadership position and thinks Republicans can win a majority in the House this year. The path to a Republican majority in the Senate, however, is even more difficult.

“Whether it be fiscal responsibility or traditional moral values or a strong defense, the fact that conservatives could get control of one chamber of the Congress in 2010 and begin to restore those principles to government is a very significant opportunity and a serious opportunity,” Pence said. “So we’re weighing those things. … Karen and I are going to take the weekend, take a hard look at it, commit the matter to prayer and try and make a decision in the near future.”

Pence, the number three Republican in the House, also confirmed that he recently met with NRSC Chair John Cornyn and his staff. He’d have a lot to lose by giving up his comfy perch in the House, especially since, as he correctly notes, the GOP has a real shot at retaking that chamber this year. However, I don’t think that Evan Bayh is an unbeatable incumbent in a year like this, and the platform of a Senate seat has to be tempting for a guy who may be angling for Presidential contender status soon.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen | IN-06

AR-Sen: Boozman Considering Lincoln Challenge

Huge news:

For Rep. John Boozman (R-AR), consideration of a bid against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) is anything but idle.

Boozman has begun calling other GOP candidates in the race to gauge whether they would stay in the contest if he made a late entry, according to a top aide. And some have already assured him they would leave the race if he does take the plunge.

Several candidates have told Boozman they would bow out and run instead for his House seat, the state’s most conservative district, based around Fayetteville and Ft. Smith in the northwest corner of the state.

And it appears the GOP establishment would be behind him as well. Boozman is expecting a call from NRSC Chairman John Cornyn this weekend and will meet with Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday morning.

Boozman is probably the #2 name for Republicans in Arkansas, right behind Huckabee. His candidacy would be a clear cut above the current field — and it’s likely that some of those second-tier Senate candidates would step aside to accomodate him. In particular, the Hotline mentions a possible exit route for state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who at this point can probably be called the leading GOP candidate in the primary: he could step down the ladder and run for Vic Snyder’s seat instead. (However, Gilbert would face a primary from Rove acolyte and ex-US Attorney Tim Griffin.)

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen

SSP Daily Digest: 1/22

KY-Sen: Rand Paul makes an interesting point: he’d like SoS (and GOP primary rival) Trey Grayson to recuse himself from his secretarial duties during the May election. In other words, he doesn’t want Grayson to count the votes of the election that he’s running in. (Unsurprisingly, Grayson’s spokesperson says “no.”)

MA-Sen: An AFL-CIO post-game poll finds that a majority of labor households in Massachusetts went for Scott Brown in the special election, by a narrow 49-46 margin. The one consolation Democrats might take from that failure is that a large majority of respondents said they were “choosing the best candidate” rather than “sending a message to Washington,” which suggests that the success (or lack thereof) of the two campaigns at defining the individual candidates is the main story here.

NY-Sen-B: This seems to exist mostly at the level of idle speculation, but people in the know are wondering whether Harold Ford Jr.’s apparent entry into the Democratic primary may open the door for other primary candidates who considered the race and then thought better of it to get back in, out of hopes they might shoot the gap in the middle.

PA-Sen, PA-07: Pennsylvania’s Democratic party chair, T.J. Rooney, is now publicly urging Rep. Joe Sestak to “pull a Gerlach” and bail out of his Senate primary bid while heading back to nail down his suburban swing seat instead. This isn’t that remarkable, as Rooney has been outspoken all year in his desire to avoid paralyzing primaries – but you’ve gotta wonder if Sestak, who’s stalled a bit in the polls lately, is considering it in the back of his mind.

WI-Sen: Rarely has so much ink been spilled writing about a four-word quotation (“I’m not saying no”), but with that utterance yesterday from ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson, thus begins a whole ‘nother round of speculation as to whether the 68-year-old Thompson’s unlikely bid to challenge Russ Feingold will ever materialize.

KS-Gov: State Sen. Tom Holland sounds willing to step up and take on the job that no one seems to want: running against Sen. Sam Brownback in the open gubernatorial race in Kansas. Holland represents one of the state’s few purplish areas, with a district that includes part of college town Lawrence, but he clearly plays to win, as seen in the fact that he’s beaten two different incumbent Republicans in his state legislative career.

AK-AL: Between being kind of old and on everybody’s “most-likely-to-be-indicted” list, Alaska’s Don Young is a tempting target, from both the left and right. He got another primary challenger yesterday: never-before-elected telecommunications executive Sheldon Fisher. Gadflyish businessman and blogger Andrew Halcro (who won 10% as an independent in the 2006 gubernatoril race) has already said he’ll run against Young in the primary, too.

AR-01: As we reported yesterday, Rep. Marion Berry is sounding kind of unenthused about much of anything right now. Fleshing out that interview we mentioned, Berry said it’s his “intention” to run again, but, as part of a longer excursis waxing philosophical about his own mortality, wouldn’t make an absolute commitment to sticking around.

HI-01: A fourth entrant (and a third Democrat) seems likely to get into the special election to replace retiring Rep. Neil Abercrombie: state Sen. Will Espero is starting an exploratory committee. Because of the weird all-parties, winner-takes-all nature of the election, the fear is that a Democratic pileup could open the door to a victory by lone Republican Charles Djou – but a recent Mason-Dixon poll of the race finds Djou a distant third behind well-known Democratic opponents Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa, and it’s unclear whether Espero has the name rec to make much of a dent one way or the other on that.

MA-10: Republicans in the Bay State are taking a renewed interest in competing in House races there, usually something that gets completely neglected. In the wake of Scott Brown’s victory, former state Treasurer Joseph Malone is now saying that he’s planning to run against Rep. William Delahunt in the 10th, which is probably the least secure district for Democrats in the state; covering Cape Cod and much of the South Shore, it’s at D+5, but the source of some of the darkest red on this week’s map. Delahunt was unopposed in 2008. The GOP is also interested in fielding candidates in the 3rd and 5th against Jim McGovern and Niki Tsongas, two other blue-collar Catholic districts that gave big margins to Brown.

MS-01: Here’s a surprise: after painstakingly clearing the GOP field for state Sen. Alan Nunnelee and getting him off to a good fundraising start, the NRCC is now meeting with Fox News talking head Angela McGlowan about a run against Rep. Travis Childers in the 1st. McGlowan hasn’t been elected before, but she does have experience as a staff member to Sen. John Ensign.

NJ-03: In addition to being an NFL player, NJ-03 Republican candidate Jon Runyan is apparently also a gentleman farmer in his spare time. He owns a 20-acre spread in rural New Jersey, but pays only hundreds of dollars in property taxes each year on 15 of those acres thanks to using them as farmland – in order to raise four donkeys. (I’m sure the irony of raising donkeys is lost on no one, although the land probably isn’t zoned to allow for elephants instead.)

NY-23: The Doug Hoffman camp is touting an internal poll showing him with a big lead over potential rivals for the GOP nomination this year, including the more establishment figure of Assemblyman Will Barclay. Hoffman, still benefiting from a lot of name rec after gaining national attention from the special election, leads Barclay 56-22 in a hypothetical 4-way contest also involving would-be-picks from last time Matt Doheny and Paul Maroun.

MA-St. Sen.: The good news is that Democrats may have a shot at picking up Scott Brown’s Senate seat in a special election (date TBA). The seat covers parts of Middlesex, Bristol, and Norfolk counties in Boston’s southwestern suburbs. 21-year state Rep. Lida Harkins says she’ll run for the Democrats; physician Peter Smulowitz also intends to run. State Reps. Richard Ross and Elizabeth Poirier may run for the GOP. The bad news? They don’t really need a pickup, as the Dems already have a 34-4 edge now (with one other vacancy in a safe Dem seat to be filled, thanks to the resignation of prison-bound Anthony Galluccio).

Supreme Court: As you probably know, the Supreme Court opened the door yesterday to a flood of special interest money into the election process with their decision in Citizens United. The case allows corporations, labor unions, and other similar entities to make unlimited independent expenditures on behalf of candidates, although they still can’t make direct contributions to the candidates’ warchests. Rich Hasen’s Election Law Blog and How Appealing have roundups of links to many different discussions as to what all it means. (Everyone seems to agree it’s a big deal, but just how big a deal seems up for debate.)

Census: Census Director Robert Groves is out with a timetable for all the movements that will occur over the next few months to get the Census up and running, seemingly to be executed with military precision. And if just can’t get enough Census discussion, Groves even has his own blog now.

CA-Gov: Brown Loses Ground But Still in Control

Field Poll (pdf) (1/5-17, likely voters, 9/18-10/6):

Meg Whitman (R): 45 (22)

Steve Poizner (R): 17 (9)

Tom Campbell (R): NA (20)

Undecided: 38 (49)

(MoE: ±7.1%)

Jerry Brown (D): 46 (50)

Meg Whitman (R): 36 (29)

Undecided: 18 (21)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)

Steve Poizner (R): 31 (25)

Undecided: 21 (25)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Ex-Gov. Jerry Brown still leads both his potential Republican opponents by solid margins, but it’s worth noting that they’ve made some headway at eating into his once-huge leads. A lot of that has to do with the money that the remaining Republican zillionaires, Meg Whitman and Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner, have been pouring into the race, much from their own pockets, helping them to become better-known… and that Brown has been taking a decidedly hands-off approach to the race (at least publicly) while the other two hit the airwaves. Although he no longer has to worry about a competitive primary, at some point Brown should probably emerge from his meditation chamber and start engaging the race.

Both Republicans added to their numbers in the wake of ex-Rep. Tom Campbell’s jump over to the Senate race, although Meg Whitman seemed to gain the lion’s share. Campbell’s dropout occurred when the poll was in the field; prior to his dropout, they were finding him solidly in second in the GOP primary, at 36-22-9. Whitman is not only better-known than Poizner but better-liked; she has 25/20 favorables, compared with Poizner in negative numbers: 16/20 (Brown clocks in at 44/32).

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Gov

IN-09: New Poll Shows Hill Underwater; SUSA Responds to SSP

Before anything else, the poll.

SurveyUSA for Firedoglake (1/17-19, likely voters):

Baron Hill (D): 41

Mike Sodrel (R): 49

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.1%)

I’m not so sure if FDL made the right choice here. Sodrel is not the only option in the Republican primary — attorney Todd Young has banked quite a bit money for the primary already, and teabaggers’ choice Travis Hankins is also staking out a position as a real wingnut’s wingnut. Sodrel has a lot of name recognition, sure, but you have to wonder if 9th CD Republicans are eyeing their options.

And now, for the other stuff: If you’ve been following SSP this week, you probably saw that we raised some questions about SurveyUSA’s latest round of House race polls that they’ve conducted for Firedoglake. We were particularly concerned with SurveyUSA’s sample composition in its poll of New York’s 1st Congressional District. More to the point, we had problems with a poll that pegged the share of 18-34 year-olds among likely voters at just one percent of the electorate. SUSA founder Jay Leve has responded:

The sample is not “pretty weird.” It is a sample of likely mid-term voters. There is no one “right” way to draw a sample in a congressional district 10 months from a midterm election, but this sample was drawn carefully and defensibly. To be included in the sample (SurveyUSA’s criteria, not the client’s):  the voter had to be registered with the secretary of state; had to have a telephone; had to have voted in 2008 and had to have voted in either [2006 or 2002], and had to confirm that he/she resided in the district being surveyed.  By design, this was not a survey of registered voters (which would have resulted in a younger sample).

Reasonable people can disagree about exactly what percentage of the electorate in 2010 will be age 18 to 34 , and I am not defending any specific turnout target. But most would agree that midterm voters are older.  That’s what these results show.  When SurveyUSA re-weights the respondents in NY-01 to be younger, the survey results do not meaningfully change. This may seem to some counter-intuitive; it is not.

When, for internal analysis, SurveyUSA re-weights the respondents to be younger in AR-02, OH-01, and IN-09, the survey results do not change.

To respond to Leve’s reply, I would first of all, with all due respect, point out that merely saying that a sample is “not pretty weird” does not actually make it so.

It is true that midterm voters are older. National exit polling for the last two presidential elections showed that voters between the ages of 18 and 29 made up 18% of the electorate in 2008 and 17% in 2004, but only made up 12% in 2006. Please note that these numbers are of 18 to 29 year-olds, and not the 18-to-34 bracket that SUSA uses in its demographic breakdowns, so the comparison is numerically kind here.

Next, SUSA attempts to address the concern by “re-weighting” their sample for the NY-01 poll, to bring up the 18-to-34 demographic from 1% to 3% of the electorate. The result actually benefits Republican Randy Altschuler, tightening his race against Democrat Tim Bishop to 47-46 from 47-45 in the original sample. While I question whether or not adjusting the sub-sample from 1% to 3% is a meaningful or satisfactory correction, this raises another issue: Just how exactly do you re-weight from a 1% sample? With such a small pool of sampled 18-to-34 year-old voters, aren’t we dealing with an astronomical margin of error here?

People who read SSP with any degree of regularity know that we like and respect SurveyUSA, and we’re not trying to suggest that anything untoward happened when these polls were drawn up. Leve seems to be confusing “drawing a sample” with “the sample you end up with.” It’s entirely possible to have a sound methodology that, for whatever reason, winds up with a sample that’s not quite right. And that’s all we’re suggesting here. (Though I would also point out that SUSA’s criteria that one has to have voted in 2006 means that there was no one younger than 21 or 22 captured in their polling.)

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-09

CT-Gov: Dems Continue to Hold Down Lead

Quinnipiac (1/14-19, registered voters, 11/10 in parentheses):

Ned Lamont (D): 41

Michael Fedele (R): 32

Undecided: 23

Ned Lamont (D): 38

Tom Foley (R): 36

Undecided: 21

Dan Malloy (D): 37

Michael Fedele (R): 31

Undecided: 27

Dan Malloy (D): 37

Tom Foley (R): 33

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Ned Lamont (D): 27 (23)

Dan Malloy (D): 11 (9)

Jim Amman (D): 5 (3)

Mary Glassman (D): 4 (NA)

Gary LeBeau (D): 2 (2)

Rudy Marconi (D): 1 (NA)

Juan Figueroa (D): 1 (NA)

Susan Bysiewicz (D): NA (26)

Undecided: 44 (33)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Tom Foley (R): 17

Michael Fedele (R): 8

Mark Boughton (R): 6

Larry DeNardis (R): 4

Oz Griebel (R): 2

Undecided: 59

(MoE: ±4.5%)

A whole lot of things have gotten shaken up since Quinnipiac last polled their home state’s governor’s race: incumbent GOPer Jodi Rell decided to retire, a herd of iffy Republicans surfaced to take her place, and just recently, presumed Democratic frontrunner SoS Susan Bysiewicz pulled her bid (most likely because Joe Lieberman presents a tastier target in 2012). The only trendlines salvageable from last time around are the Democratic primary, where there’s a bit of an uptick for both Ned Lamont (who’s basically left as the frontrunner now) and ex-Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, but many of the former Bysiewicz votes seem to be “undecided” for now. (Quinnipiac also looks at the AG race’s primary, where Bysiewicz is whomping state Sen. George Jepsen, 62-10.) Of course, the Democratic primary voters look incredibly decisive compared with Republicans, where every candidate is struggling to get out of the single digits.

The general election matchups aren’t quite as nice-looking as recent polls by PPP and R2K, where Lamont was putting up double-digit edges against all Republicans. (Quinnipiac points out the irony of how a Lamont/Foley matchup would pit two never-before-elected zillionaires from Greenwich against each other, and there seems to be some voter ambivalence about that matchup.) Still, Democrats have to be pleased that even with Bysiewicz’s unexpected exit from the race that they still have the upper hand.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Gov