Swing State Project

All 80 seats in the lower house of the NJ legislature are up for re-election this year, but the 40 legislative districts (2 assemblymen from each) are so heavily gerrymandered that only a few districts are ever in play. Right now, the Democrats have a 48-32 majority; Republicans must pick up seats in five districts to re-take a majority.

The conventional wisdom here in that Republicans will pick up seats in a few swing districts, but not enough to take control of the Assembly, which has been under Democratic control for years. Further CW is that there’s a “throw-the-bums-out” anti-Democratic sentiment in these swing districts right now.

Probable GOP pickups

There are two districts currently represented by Democrats that will most likely be represented by Republicans next year.

One is the first legislative district (LD1), a South Jersey district comprised of Cape May County and parts of Cumberland and Atlantic Counties. The Shore region has long been one of the most favorable parts of the state for the GOP, and this year this part of the state is the one Christie has a real lock on.

The Democratic incumbents are Assemblymen Matthew Milam and Nelson Albano, and they’re most likely headed for defeat. Instead of their 2007 running mate, popular Sen. Jeff Van Drew, at the top of the ticket, the unpopular Gov. Jon Corzine is – and Christie may win this district by a double-digit margin. If I had to pick one district to flip, this would be it. The GOP nominees are Mike Donohue, an attorney from Dennis Township who was also the GOP nominee in 2007, and John McCann, a businessman who chairs the Ocean City Republican Party and serves on the Cape May County Tax Board. They’re a pair of real wingnuts; they support abolishing – not cutting, abolishing – the state Department of Environmental Protection.

The good news here for the Dems is that they have a huge five-to-one leg up in fundraising, thanks to the powerful South Jersey Democratic machine. Also, even though Milam and Albano don’t have Van Drew’s electoral coattails to rely upon, Van Drew has been out there campaigning like hell for them.

The other seat that’s likely to flip is LD36, where Assemblymen Frederick Scalera and Gary Schaer barely managed to hold onto their seats two years ago. LD36 is a suburban district comprised of most of southern Bergen County, plus Nutley in Essex County and the infamously corrupt city of Passaic in the county of the same name.  

There’s a reason why voters came close to throwing out Scalera and Schaer in 2007.  The pair, especially Schaer, is closely tied to the disastrous EnCap project.  Even though that’s all over with now, and even though the state executive branch is the one that actually mismanaged that project into the ground, Schaer was still one of the original big proponents of the project.  This was enough to rouse constituents to try and teach him a lesson in 2007, and it will be enough in 2009.  Add that together with voter frustration over property taxes, corruption, and Gov. Corzine’s failed affordable housing initiative, and voila! You’ve got a recipe for disaster for Scalera and Schaer.  

This race is going to be very, very close, especially since suburban areas like this one are being sought after by both Christie and Corzine. The GOP nominees are Don Diorio, a school board member and businessman in Carlstadt, and Carmen Pio Costa of Nutley, who manages a real estate investment business.  This is the same ticket that almost unseated the incumbents in 2007, and once again they’re pulling no punches.  They’ve assailed Scalera and Schaer for their support of COAH and Corzine’s tax increases, for their involvement with EnCap, and for their double-dipping tendencies.  (The latter is not unusual for New Jersey politicians, but it’s certainly never something that voters support.  Schaer, for the record, is also the President of the Passaic City Council, while Scalera collected a big, fat second salary for a public job with Essex County for quite some time.  

Other GOP targets

The GOP is also aiming to pick up seats in LD14, the only district represented by different parties in the Senate and Assembly (Sen. Bill Baroni is a Republican). The key in this district is to be pro-labor, because plenty of unionized state workers live in this Central Jersey district, which is fairly close to the state capital.

Assemblyman Wayne DeAngelo and Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein are both very pro-labor, so if there’s a big labor turnout for Corzine, they could be safe. But if there are state workers still smarting over the unpaid furloughs Corzine imposed, GOP nominees Rob Calabro (a member of the Hamilton Planning Board who owns several Mercer County food markets) and Bill Harvey (a general practice attorney) could have a pretty good shot at unseating the incumbents. Interestingly, the Middlesex County GOP is ticked off at the Mercer County GOP because both nominees are from Hamilton, in Mercer County. I’m not sure if that’ll affect the race.

There are two other districts where the GOP has a reasonable possibility of picking up seats. One is LD4, a swingy South Jersey district comprised of parts of Camden and Gloucester Counties. Folks, with a two-to-one Democratic registration advantage, this gerrymandered district is usually dominated by George Norcross and his South Jersey Democratic machine. But people in this suburban district — like people in most other parts of New Jersey — are generally viewing Gov. Corzine negatively. Suddenly the GOP is viewing the LD4 seats as a viable option. The seats are currently occupied by Assemblywoman Sandra Love, who is retiring, and Assemblyman Paul Moriarty, who is running for re-election. Moriarty is maligned by Republicans, who cannot beat his “independent-minded” image in spite of the fact that his voting record is fairly partisan and he’s part of the Norcross machine.

Anyway, Moriarty and his new running mate, a 15-year-veteran of the Gloucester Township School Board named Bill Collins, aren’t facing a typical Republican slate this year. One Republican nominee, Eugene E.T. Lawrence, was a Democrat until earlier this year, when he basically switched parties in order to run in the general election (although his official reason was his anger at Gov. Corzine for cutting property tax rebates). Lawrence, an African-American who spent five years as a Democrat on the Gloucester Township Council before being defeated for re-election, felt snubbed when the Democratic machine picked Collins earlier this year.  In addition to Lawrence, the Republicans have nominated a political neophyte named Dominick DiCicco.  Hailing from Franklin Township, DiCicco has a law degree and an MBA; he works for Zurich Financial Services, currently as Chief Legal Officer of North American Claim Operation.  He’s also got friends in high places, apparently, as former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich saw fit to endorse him earlier this year.  How many times has Newt Gingrich endorsed someone in a state legislative race?  Not many, I imagine.  

All things considered, Lawrence and DiCicco have a lot to overcome – not just the voter registration edge, but the fundraising might of the Norcross machine, which has out-raised them two-to-one thus far.  Norcross isn’t losing this one if he can help it, but with his slate facing a pair of genuine moderates in an anti-Democratic year, these seats could flip.  

Another such district is LD19, a somewhat urban Middlesex County district including Perth Amboy and Woodbridge.  This district is currently represented by Assemblymen John Wisniewski of Sayreville and Joe Vas of Perth Amboy.  Wisniewski, who’s been elected and re-elected since 1995, is one of the most powerful members of the Assembly, chairing the Transportation/Public Works Committee.  He more recently made the news by flirting with the prospect of seeking the Speakership next year and, humorously, by boasting about the fact that he didn’t accept a bribe from Solomon Dwek, the cooperating witness in this summer’s infamous Operation Bid Rig.  Good for you, John.  

Of course, perhaps I shouldn’t poke fun at Wisniewski when he is so clearly the clean one in this delegation.  After all, Vas (who was concurrently Mayor of Perth Amboy until he lost his re-election bid in 2008) is facing a plethora of corruption charges from both federal and state authorities.  In March 2009, a state grand jury indicted him on eleven counts, including seven counts of official misconduct.   In May 2009, a federal grand jury indicted him on eight counts, including six counts of mail fraud.  Also in May 2009, a second state grand jury indicted Vas on seventeen further counts. And to top it all off, the feds indicted Vas on one more charge in superseding indictment in July. Through all of this, Vas refuses to resign, although he decides not to seek a second term in office.  Assembly Speaker Joe Roberts suspended Vas’s salary and benefits and stripped him of his committee assignments, including his Commerce Committee chairmanship.  Vas still refuses to resign to this very day.  

So the time comes for the Middlesex Democratic machine to pick Vas’s successor, and they give the party line to Jack O’Leary, the longtime mayor of the district’s smallest city, South Amboy.  O’Leary runs unopposed in the primary and appears to be headed for election as the next assemblyman from LD19.  Instead, an anonymously authored 82-page document called “The O’Leary Family Crime Syndicate” began circulating, accusing O’Leary of corruption and targeting the mayor’s insurance business.  O’Leary was investigated by state authorities as well, although he has not been charged with any crime and the attack may very well have been simply a political enemy trying to take him out.  Regardless, O’Leary bowed to intraparty pressure and quit the race in August.

Democratic Party boss/actual elected county sheriff Joe Spicuzzo convened party leaders to vote on who to anoint as the new nominee.  Party leaders voted to put Craig Coughlin on the ticket. Coughlin is a retired municipal judge who’s been municipal attorney for Carteret and Woodbridge, not to mention a South Amboy councilman and a Woodbridge Democratic Party chair. A distinguished resume, no doubt, but one with scarcely any elective office on it. Indeed, instead of a mayor so popular in his hometown that he’s been elected and re-elected to that office for two decades, the Middlesex Dems anointed a party insider with lots of political connections in all the district’s towns but little to no connection to the actual people of the district.

Even though this is a heavily Democratic district (Dems enjoy a 2-1 registration advantage), the corruption problem and, of course, dissatisfaction with Gov. Corzine have given the GOP newfound hope.  One nominee, Richard Piatkowski of Perth Amboy, is a real estate broker probably best known in the political sphere for his run for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2004, when he was the Republican nominee against then-Congressman (and future Senator) Bob Menendez in the heavily Democratic 13th Congressional District.  His running mate, Peter Kothari, is a businessman from Woodbridge who is probably best known as an Indian-American community activist.  (In 2006, Kothari denounced the police and the city of Edison for not prosecuting a police officer who allegedly engaged in police brutality while arresting another Indian-American activist for rioting and assault on a police officer.  That’s not very Republican….) Worst-case scenario from a Democratic perspective:  The GOP picks up these two seats, along with all the others mentioned above.  I wouldn’t put any money on it, though.  

All other seats

All other seats should be safe for the incumbents. Other than LD14 (mentioned above), only LD2 has split representation (represented by a pair of Republicans in the Assembly and a Democratic state senator), but it’s likely safe for the incumbents. Some excessively optimistic Republicans have also made noise about pickups in LD3 and LD6, which frankly is not going to happen.

I should note that there are also two special elections for the Senate going on: One to fill Congressman John Adler’s old seat in a heavily Democratic district and one to fill Congressman Leonard Lance’s old seat in a heavily Republican district. Both are safe for the incumbent party.

NJCentrist lives in a small city in Union County, in central New Jersey. He’s part of the electorate in the 7th congressional district, a swing district represented by moderate Republican Rep. Leonard Lance. He’s also a part of the electorate in the 21st legislative district, a solidly Republican district represented in the State Senate by Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr., and in the State Assembly by Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick and Assemblywoman Nancy Munoz. Like a majority of Americans, NJCentrist approves of President Obama.

Rasmussen (10/19, likely voters, 8/17 in parens) (primary numbers):

Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (29)

Charlie Crist (R): 46 (48)

Some other: 9 (10)

Not sure: 11 (13)

Kendrick Meek (D): 31 (30)

Marco Rubio (R): 46 (43)

Some other: 8 (8)

Not sure: 15 (19)

(MoE: ±3%)

Charlie Crist (R): 49 (53)

Marco Rubio (R): 35 (31)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 12 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Wouldn’t you know it… minutes after hitting “post” on the new Quinnipiac poll of Florida’s Senate race, there’s a new Rasmussen too. In the primary, Rasmussen sees the same dwindling Charlie Crist advantage as Quinnipac; where Quinnipiac saw it 50-35 edge for Crist (down from 55-26), Rasmussen sees it a 49-35 race (down from 53-31).

Where they differ is how they see the general, especially the Kendrick Meek/Marco Rubio matchup. Where Quinnipiac gives Meek a 3-point edge, Rasmussen sees Rubio not only beating Meek by 15, but actually overperforming Crist (who beats Meek by 12, down from a 19-point margin before). Looks like Rasmussen’s aggressive likely voter screen in the general (versus Quinnipiac’s use of registered voters) is picking up lots of conservative diehards.

RaceTracker: FL-Sen

EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV (10/11-15, “active voters,” 5/18-21 in parentheses)

Primaries:

John Cherry (D): 33 (14)

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 5 (2)

George Perles (D): 3 (2)

Don Williamson (D): 3 (1)

John Freeman (D): 2 (NA)

Undecided: 54 (26)

Peter Hoekstra (R): 29 (27)

Mike Cox (R): 28 (26)

Mike Bouchard (R): 14 (NA)

Rick Snyder (R): 3 (NA)

Tom George (R): 2 (1)

Undecided: 24 (25)

(MoE: ±4%)

General:

John Cherry (D): 33 (36)

Peter Hoekstra (R): 40 (33)

John Cherry (D): 30 (36)

Mike Cox (R): 45 (35)

John Cherry (D): 30

Mike Bouchard (R): 39

John Cherry (D): 34

Rick Snyder (R): 32

(MoE: ±4%)

We’ve already used the joke “Cherry’s Numbers Are the Pits,” so I won’t bother you with that one again, but the Michigan gubernatorial race is certainly not going in the right direction for the Democrats. The problem right now seems to be that Lt. Gov. John Cherry, front-runner in the Democratic field, is inextricably linked to current Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s administration, which is quite unpopular right now as Michigan suffers from what are in all likelihood the worst economic conditions of any of the 50 states. There seems to have been a lot of decline since the last EPIC-MRA poll in May; while Cherry squeaked past Rep. Peter Hoekstra and AG Mike Cox then, he’s losing by double-digits today. (He does, however, beat businessman Rick Snyder — probably the most moderate option among the Republicans, but also little-known statewide.)

The primary fields have gotten dramatically reshaped since May; on the GOP side, EPIC-MRA previously also included SoS Terri Lynn Land (who has since dropped out) but added Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard. And on the Democratic side, they previously included Sen. Debbie Stabenow (bizarre, since she has never expressed interest in the race), Wayne Co. Exec Robert Ficano (ditto), and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (who seems to have simply faded into obscurity) — which would explain why Cherry (and “undecided”) are performing much better in the Dem primary now. Still, with 54% of primary voters undecided, and losing ground in the general, you’ve gotta start wondering if Cherry is the best we can do here.

RaceTracker Wiki: MI-Gov

• ME-Sen: PPP looked at Olympia Snowe’s approval ratings in the wake of her bipartisan-curious explorations of the last few weeks. Her overall approvals are 56/31 (not red-hot, but still in the top 5 among Senators PPP has polled recently), but interestingly, she’s now doing much better among Dems (70% approval) than GOPers (45% approval), with indies split (51% approval). Still, only 32% of voters think she should switch parties (with no particular difference between Dems and Republicans on that question).

• NH-Sen: A $1,000 check is usually just a drop in the bucket in a Senate warchest. But when you’re Kelly Ayotte, and you’re trying to offer up as uncontroversial and substance-free an image as possible, the fact that that $1,000 check is from Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum speaks a little more loudly than you might want it to.

• NV-Sen: Research 2000 has new poll data out for Nevada, although it’s on behalf of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, not Daily Kos. At any rate, they find numbers pretty consistent with other pollsters, with Harry Reid sporting 35/54 favorables and trailing Sue Lowden 47-42 and Jerry Danny Tarkanian 46-41 (both of whom might as well be “generic Republican” at this point). The poll also finds 54% support for a public option (including 84% of Dems and 55% of indies), and finds that 31% of all voters, including 46% of Democrats, less likely to vote for him if he fails to include a public option in health care reform.

• MN-Gov: One fascinating piece of trivia about Minnesota DFL nominating conventions is that, like the national convention, there are delegates, and then there are superdelegates. Minnesota Progressive is compiling a whip count among the superdelegates in the Governor’s race. So far, the leaders are tied at 14 each: state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and state Sen. Tom Bakk.

• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen takes another look at the New Jersey governor’s race; their purported topline result is 41 for Chris Christie, 39 for Jon Corzine, and 11 for Chris Daggett, which is an improvement over last week’s 4-point spread for Christie. However, you may recall that last week they released two sets of results, an initial read (which found a tie) and then a re-allocated version that asked Daggett voters (and only Daggett voters) if they were really sure, which gave Christie a 4-point lead and which they flagged as their topline. This week, Rasmussen just toplined the version with Daggett voters re-allocated, without saying a peep about voters’ initial preferences. TPM’s Eric Kleefeld contacted Rasmussen and got the initial preferences version, which, lo and behold, gives Corzine a 37-36-16 lead. Would it kill Rasmussen to just admit that, sometimes, Democratic candidates actually lead in some races?

Meanwhile, as things further deteriorate for Chris Christie, New Jersey’s senior senator, Frank Lautenberg, has called for a federal investigation into Christie’s politicization of his U.S. Attorney office (starting with his election-year investigations into Bob Menendez). It’s not clear whether that’ll go anywhere (especially in the next two weeks), but it certainly helps keep doubts about Christie front and center. And if you’re wondering why Christie‘s campaign is faltering, it may have something to do with his own admission that he doesn’t really have that much to do with his own campaign strategy:

“That’s what I hire other people to do for me, is to help to make those decisions for me,” Christie replied. He added, “I’m out there working 14, 15, 16 hours a day. So the strategy decision is not something I’m generally engaged in.”

• NY-Gov: You could knock me over with a feather, but there’s actually a poll out today showing that David Paterson is in trouble (with an approval of 30/57). Quinnipiac finds that Paterson loses the general to Rudy Giuliani 54-32, and ties woeful Rick Lazio 38-38. Andrew Cuomo, on the other hand, beats Giuliani 50-40 and Lazio 61-22. The primaries are foregone conclusions, with Cuomo beating Paterson 61-19 and Giuliani beating Lazio 74-9.

• OR-Gov: A lot of Oregonians are scratching their heads wondering where Jason Atkinson, the purported Republican frontrunner in the governor’s race, is. Atkinson has raised only $2,000 and hasn’t been updating his campaign blog or social media sites. Atkinson’s legislative aide also tells the Oregonian’s Jeff Mapes that she doesn’t know what’s happening with his candidacy.

• SC-Gov: Contrary to reports earlier in the week, it looks like impeachment of Mark Sanford can’t come up during the one-day special session in the South Carolina legislature (which was called to patch the state’s unemployment compensation system — using those stimulus funds that Sanford fought against). Looks like he’ll survive at least until the full legislative session next year.

• VA-Gov: Three items, none of which are any good for Creigh Deeds. The first is the new poll from SurveyUSA, which has usually been the most Bob McDonnell-friendly pollster but has never shown Deeds so far down: 59-40. Even if this is an outlier (and it probably is, as it shows McDonnell pulling in 55% in NoVa and 31% of all black voters), it can’t be so much of an outlier that Deeds is anywhere near close. This is bolstered by today’s PPP poll, which finds McDonnell leading Deeds 52-40 (up from a 5-pt lead post-thesis-gate). And during last night’s debate, Deeds may have shut the door on any last-minute progressive interest in his campaign, when he said he’d consider having Virginia opt out of an opt-out public option. Of course, his camp is backpedaling today, saying that he “wasn’t ruling anything out” — but as any student of politics will tell you, every day you spend explaining what you really had meant to say is another day lost.

• CA-11: Not one but two more penny-ante Republicans got into the race against Democratic sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney: construction company owner Robert Beadles and the former VP of Autism Speaks, Elizabeth Emken. That brings to a total of 8 the number of GOPers, with former US Marshal Tony Amador the only one with a competitive profile.

• CA-47: Audio has been released of Assemblyman and Congressional candidate Van Tran’s brush with the law when he got involved in a friend’s DUI traffic stop. Tran has denied that he was interfering with the police, but the audio doesn’t exactly leave him sounding cooperative.

• FL-08: Yet another Republican backed off from the prospect of facing off against the suddenly mighty Alan Grayson — although this is a guy I didn’t even know was running: Marvin Hutson. Hutson instead endorsed Todd Long, the radio talk show host who nearly defeated incumbent Ric Keller in the 2008 GOP primary — who, to my knowledge, doesn’t actually seem to be running, at least not yet (and that could change, given the GOP’s glaring hole here).

• IL-16: Here’s a Democratic recruitment score (well, of the second-tier variety) in a district where Barack Obama won last year but the very conservative Republican incumbent, Don Manzullo, has skated with minor opposition for nearly two decades. George Gaulrapp, the mayor of Freeport (a town of 25,000 at the Rockford-based district’s western end), will challenge Manzullo.

• NYC Mayor: Incumbent Michael Bloomberg continues to hold a sizable but not overwhelming lead over Democratic comptroller William Thompson in the New York mayoral race; he leads 53-41. Thompson doesn’t seem likely to make up much ground without full-throated backing from Barack Obama, though, and he certainly isn’t getting that; Obama gave Thompson no more than a “shout out” at a New York fundraiser last night.

• Mayors: The New York Times has a good profile of the Atlanta mayor’s race, where the long string of black mayors may be broken. White city councilor Mary Norwood, from the affluent white Buckhead portion of the city, seems to be the frontrunner to succeed outgoing mayor Shirley Franklin, with the African-American vote split among city councilor Lisa Borders and former state legislator Kasim Reed (although polling indicates Norwood pulling in a fair amount of black support). This seems consistent with changing demographics, where GA-05 (which largely overlaps Atlanta city limits) has seen declining black and increasing white populations while the suburbs become much blacker.

• Census: Democratic Rep. Joe Baca has introduced legislation of his own to counter David Vitter’s amendment to require the census to ask citizenship status. Baca’s bill would require all residents to be counted in the census, regardless of legal status.

In less than 2 weeks, we will determine the winner of three important elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, NY-23).  At one time there was some chatter from the right that November 3rd would be a referendum on the Democrats.  For argument’s sake, I’ll agree with the conservatives and then try to analyze the potential results of these three races.  First, let’s look at the three races:

NJ-Gov  If there was ever a “come from ahead” loss staring at a Republican candidate in 2009, Chris Christie is the first man that comes to mind.  Christie made the mistake of touting a “reformer” image, but his strategy has backfired.  The Corzine campaign has identified flaws in this strategy by refuting it effectively.  Christie should have won this race going away, but Christie’s ethical issues have been the focal point as opposed to Corzine’s tenure as governor.  Chris Daggett’s popularity is the wild card.  At this point I think this race will go to Corzine due to the recent trends in the polls.  Daggett is a wild card, but Corzine should prevail by the skin of his teeth.  

VA-Gov  Creigh Deeds hasn’t caught on fire with the Virginia electorate.  McDonnell has the momentum, and I don’t see how Deeds will pull it off in less than 2 weeks.  I hope I’m wrong.  It has been noted that Deeds is a fast finisher, so I’m not totally writing this race off yet.

NY-23 Bill Owens might become the first Democrat to represent this district in many years.  DeDe Scozzafava is out of money and might actually finish 3rd in this race.  Doug Hoffman is the Conservative Party’s dog in this race, and he’s attacking both candidates from the right.  Owens has some momentum, Hoffman has some momentum (if not even more than Owens), and DeDe is floundering.  This race leans towards Owens at this time.

If the Democrats win 2 of the 3 races, would it be considered a good night for the Democratic party?  If the Republicans only pick 1 of these races, how will they spin the results in their favor?  

Quinnipiac (10/12-18, registered voters, 8/12-17 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 31

Charlie Crist (R): 51

Undecided: 14

Kendrick Meek (D): 36

Marco Rubio (R): 33

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±3%)

Charlie Crist (R): 50 (55)

Marco Rubio (R): 35 (26)

Undecided: 12 (18)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Alex Sink (D): 32 (34)

Bill McCollum (R): 36 (38)

Undecided: 27 (25)

(MoE: ±3%)

Bill McCollum (R): 43

Paula Dockery (R): 7

Undecided: 47

(MoE: ±4.9%)

There has been a general sense of alarm leaking out of the Charlie Crist camp in the last week or so, and it seems to have mostly to do with that alleged Chamber of Commerce poll that gave Crist only a 44-30 edge over Marco Rubio (although that poll has yet to be released). Well, the alarms will probably get cranked up a notch, now we have a public poll that shows almost the same thing: Quinnipiac’s new Florida poll shows Rubio pulling within almost a close a margin, trailing Crist by 15. Although here, there are fewer undecideds and Crist is still over the 50% mark — but given the trajectory of the two candidates, and Rubio’s sudden fundraising competitiveness, Crist seems poised to continue losing ground. Crist may be able to take some comfort in his still-high favorables, though: 58/30 (although Rubio is liked too and has room for growth, at 24/11).

Although Quinnipiac has polled Florida a number of times, this is their first time running general election head-to-heads. The 20-point spread between Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek isn’t a surprise; it’s right in line with Pollster.com’s 50-31 average on the race. What is a surprise is the Meek/Rubio matchup, which Meek actually leads by 3. That’s quite different than the 43-30 edge that Rubio enjoyed in August according to Rasmussen, who seem to be the only pollster who’ve been testing Meek vs. Rubio lately (although R2K found Meek beating Rubio 31-22 way back in January). I think it may be time for us to start rooting for the Club for Democratic Growth to get involved on Rubio’s behalf.

The governor’s race still looks pretty sleepy, with little movement from last time (although what movement occurred benefits Sink, who’s down by 4 now), and lots of undecideds (in fact, an increasing number of them). Alex Sink is still surprisingly little-known, at 23/8, but she’s Balloon Boy and Octomom rolled into one compared with state Sen. Paula Dockery, who looks poised to enter the Republican primary against Bill McCollum but comes in with favorables of 5/3.

RaceTracker: FL-Sen | FL-Gov

It really seems like Dede Scozzafava can’t catch a break, huh? First, it looks like Lindsay Beyerstein caught Scozzafava talking out of both sides of her mouth about the card-check provision of the Employee Free Choice Act. Dave Weigel sums up:

In September, Scozzafava’s campaign claimed she opposed the “card check” provision of the Employee Free Choice Act. But at the same time, she told the AFL-CIO, in a candidate questionnaire, that she supported EFCA’s provision that “would require employers to honor their workers’ decision to join a union after a majority of them signed a union authorization card or petition.”

In an attempt to nail down exactly where the Janus-faced Scozzafava stands on the issue, Weekly Standard reporter John McCormack got a bit more than he bargained for. McCormack did succeed in finding out Scozzafava’s views on card check (she says she supports it – at least, today), but the candidate was remarkably unwilling to answer any other questions. McCormack’s persistence didn’t exactly pay off:

I spotted Scozzafava later as she was walking to the parking lot, and asked her: “Assemblywoman, do you believe that the health-care bill should exclude coverage for abortion?” She didn’t reply. I asked her twice more. Silence.

After she got into her car, I went to my car and fired up my laptop to report the evening’s events.

Minutes later a police car drove into the parking lot with its lights flashing. Officer Grolman informed me that she was called because “there was a little bit of an uncomfortable situation” and then took down my name, date of birth, and address.

“Maybe we do things a little differently here, but you know, persistence in that area, you scared the candidate a little bit,” Officer Grolman told me.

“[Scozzafava] got startled, that’s all,” Officer Grolman added. “It’s not like you’re in any trouble.”

Calling the cops on a reporter doesn’t seem like a winning move to begin with; getting into an intramural battle with a conservative publication seems even more foolhardy. Nonetheless, a Scozzafava flack emailed Politico to claim that McCormack “repeatedly screamed questions” at the candidate. Other attendees said that McCormack was “quiet” during the event, so who knows. A spokesman for Conservative Doug Hoffman’s campaign opined:

If any police investigation needs to take place, it should be of Dede Scozzafava, for impersonating a Republican.

Zing!

Meanwhile, the Scozzafava camp decided to continue its fued with the Weekly Standard, releasing an email exchange between McCormack and another Republican spokesman to TPM about whether Scozzafava would vote for John Boehner as speaker should she win election. (The Scozzafava guy just comes off as squirrely.) The attacks on McCormack prompted Weekly Standard honcho Bill Kristol to weigh in, branding the Scozzafava campaign “desperate.”

But really, this is all a minor nuisance (albeit one a struggling Republican campaign can ill afford). The real news for Dede is worse – much worse. The Club for Growth just announced a brand-new $300K moneybomb on ads attacking Scozzafava for (what else) being a “liberal.” At the same time, the SEIU just dropped $82K on mailers for Dem Bill Owens, and the D-Trip threw down $132 grand on media buys. This brings the DCCC’s total spending to $520K.

Meanwhile, former GOP Majority Leader Dick Armey will campaign for Hoffman, while Susan Collins and Florida Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (srsly?) will stump for Scozzafava. Owens is probably feeling a bit more stoked than the competition about the help he’s getting – tonight President Obama held a fundraiser for him in New York City.

And finally, all three candidates agreed to a one-hour debate on Oct. 29th, though it won’t be broadcast until Nov. 1st.

This is the second part of a series on Communism in Western Europe; this section focuses on France in particular. The third part (Italy) can be found here.

In France, the Communist Party was founded in 1920 by revolting members of its socialist party, then called the French Section of the Workers’ International (Section Française de l’Internationale Ouvrière, SFIO). Their new party initially did fairly poorly, only one of the numerous parties out there. In 1928, for instance, the Communists (PCF) won 11.26% of the vote.

Nevertheless, by 1936 – the depths of the Great Depression – the Communists (PCF) were making gains. Then came WWII – the best thing that ever happened to the PCF. Out of all the parties in occupied France, the Communists fought the Nazis hardest and suffered the most for it. They earned the nickname le parti des 75 000 fusillés – the party of the 75,000 executed people – and immense popularity.

Following the war, the PCF joined the new government led by Charles de Gaulle. Unfortunately for it, however, the U.S. government demanded a Communist-free government as a precondition for accepting the Marshall Plan. The French Communist Party was summarily booted out.

This did not prevent the PCF from channeling its wartime record into electoral success; from November 1946 to 1956, the Communists won a greater share of the popular vote than any other party. Their base lay amongst France’s working class, which remained a loyal and reliable constituency, and they constituted the dominant force on the French left.

Continued below the flip.

This state of affairs could not last forever, however. After 1956, the French Communists entered a slow decline. With the slow, gradual destruction of the Soviet Union’s credibility in the West, the PCF – tightly linked to the USSR – reached a ceiling of support. Many French voters simply would never vote communist.

Then, in 1969, the Socialist Party (Parti socialiste, PS) was founded, sounding the death knell of the Communists. Led by François Mitterrand, the socialists quickly took over the mantle as the leader of the left. Communist voters abandoned the PCF in droves, seeking a party that could actually win a majority of the popular vote – which the Communists could not. Thus, by 1988, the PCF won a mere 3.43% of the popular vote in run-off legislative elections.

Interestingly, it was not the fall of the Soviet Union that ended the Communist Party in France, but the emergence of an acceptable alternative to the PCF. That was not the case with Italy.

— Inoljt, http://thepolitikalblog.wordpr…

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio continues to rack up goodwill among the far right, pulling in an endorsement from Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe. Rubio has already gotten a Jim DeMint endorsement; can Tom Coburn be far behind?

• LA-Sen: Southern Media and Opinion Research has a poll (conducted on behalf of local businessman Lane Grigsby, a big Republican donor — you might remember he personally dumped a ton of money into LA-06 last year) of the LA-Sen race that shows numbers remarkably similar to what else we’ve seen. They have David Vitter beating Charlie Melancon 48-36 (while Rasmussen had it at 46-36 a couple weeks ago, and a Melancon internal from last month was 47-37).

• NC-Sen: Erskine Bowles, the guy so pathetic he managed to lose to both carpetbagger Liddy Dole and anonymous Richard Burr, now has nothing but praise for his one-time opponent, saying “I’ve had a chance to work with this guy for four full years and nobody works harder or smarter for North Carolina than Richard Burr does.” At least the DSCC remembers how the game is played, taking Burr to task for voting against the stimulus and now touting his delivery of $2 million in grant money to a local fire department from the stimulus funds that he didn’t vote for.

• NV-Sen: In an indication of just how deep the non-aggression pact between Harry Reid and John Ensign goes, now John Ensign’s parents (who apparently just love to bail out troubled politicians) both contributed the maximum amount to Reid in the third fundraising quarter. Meanwhile, Ensign himself says he’s still willing to campaign on behalf of the Republican nominee against Reid, if he or she just asks. (My advice to Ensign: don’t sit by the phone waiting for those calls.)

• SC-Sen: This is the kind of praise you might not really want: two Republican party chairs from rural counties wrote an op-ed in the Times and Democrat defending Jim DeMint from charges that he didn’t bring enough pork back to South Carolina, saying that Jews got wealthy by watching their pennies and that DeMint was doing the same. The authors later apologized, and, to his credit, DeMint deplored the remark.

• WA-Sen: Here’s some help from Joe Biden for someone who probably doesn’t need the help: Patty Murray, who’s facing very little in the way of opposition and is sitting on more than $4 million CoH. Biden will be appearing at a Seattle fundraiser on Nov. 6. (If you’re wondering who’s stepped up to go against Murray so far, it seems like the GOP’s best prospect right now is Chris Widener, a motivational speaker and president of personal development company Made for Success who’s currently exploring the race. He’ll have to sell a whole lot of Successories posters to be able to compete financially.)

• FL-Gov: Fresh off a disappointing third fundraising quarter, Florida AG Bill McCollum may be facing another dose of bad news — state Sen. Paula Dockery says she is now “leaning very heavily” toward challenging McCollum for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. (J)

• MN-Gov: One more name on the already excruciatingly-long list of gubernatorial candidates in Minnesota: former DFL state Sen. Steve Kelley (who lost the 2000 Senate primary to Mark Dayton in an almost-as-large field). It sounds like he’s trying to brand himself as the “green” candidate this time.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): One more New Jersey poll to add to the pile today, from Monmouth University. They find the race a flat-out tie, with 39 for Jon Corzine and Chris Christie, and 14 for Chris Daggett. (Christie led 43-40-8 one month ago.) In terms of favorables, they both suck: Corzine is at 37/51 and Christie is at 40/41. Corzine did make at least one new friend, though: Michael Kenneth Williams (better known as Omar from The Wire) offers his endorsement.

Meanwhile, Christie now is suffering from a further expansion of the Michele Brown story (remember, she’s the one who got an undisclosed $46K loan from Christie), and, already losing ground in the polls, the timing couldn’t be worse. The New York Times revealed today that, despite their claims otherwise, Brown in fact used her position as Christie’s deputy at least two times to aid the campaign, taking control of a FOIA request about Christie’s stint as US Attorney and pushing up the schedule on the arrests for the 40-person corruption sting so that the arrests would occur before Christie’s permanent successor took over, so he could get the credit.

• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Yet another Siena poll shows David Paterson in deep doo-doo. The most noteworthy thing about this poll may be that Rudy Giuliani seems to be improving his lot, although he still isn’t taking any steps toward running for anything; Giuliani trails Andrew Cuomo only 50-43 (and beats Paterson 56-33, naturally), and also matches up well against Kirsten Gillibrand for the Senate race, winning that one 53-36. (Other matchups: Cuomo beats Paterson 70-20 in the primary. Cuomo and Paterson both beat Rick Lazio, 66-21 and 39-37. And George Pataki beats Kirsten Gillibrand, 46-41.)

• SC-Gov: Could the end of the road finally be approaching for Mark Sanford? (Assuming that Sarah Palin suddenly shows up and does something else stupid yet captivating, probably not.) A resolution of impeachment will be introduced in the GOP-held legislature during a special session next week. However, actual proceedings, if any, won’t occur until the full session in January.

• VA-Gov (pdf): Two new polls are out in Virginia, and neither one offers Creigh Deeds much cause for optimism. Clarus finds a 49-41 advantage for Bob McDonnell (up from a 42-37 edge last month). And Christopher Newport University for WVEC and the Virginian-Pilot finds, in their first poll of the race, a 45-31 lead for McDonnell (with a lot of undecideds). Meanwhile, former governor Doug Wilder continues to somewhat less than useless in this race, saying that Virginia “won’t sink into the seas” if McDonnell wins.

• AL-07: An internal poll from state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. gives us our first insight into the Democratic field in the open seat in this dark-blue district. Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot leads the field with 24, followed by Hilliard at 17, former Selma mayor James Perkins Jr. at 9, and attorney Terri Sewell at 4. Smoot, who may be the most progressive candidate in the field, benefits from high name recognition (68%), thanks to also being a radio talk show host. Sewell has much lower name recognition (32%) but a big fundraising advantage over everyone else; she’s probably the most moderate option, as seen in her close links to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis and her connections to Birmingham’s business community.

• CA-44: There seems to be some confusion as to whether or not the FBI is investigating GOP Rep. Ken Calvert. Calvert’s investment group apparently bought land that had been slated for development as a public park, which a grand jury found was in violation of state law. Whether or not the FBI is now involved, it’s the kind of publicity that can’t be good for Calvert, who’s facing a tricky rematch against Bill Hedrick in California’s Inland Empire.

• KS-04: One other internal poll to discuss, this time in the Republican field in the 4th. State Sen. Dick Kelsey (who paid for the poll) leads the field at 17, trailed by state Sen. Jean Schodorf at 15, businessman Wink Hartman at 8, and RNC member Mike Pompeo at 6. Whoever wins faces off against Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle, who’s been on a fundraising tear all of a sudden.

• MN-03: State Sen. Terri Bonoff, who lost the endorsement to Ashwin Media in 2008, is still “open” to running against freshman Republican Erik Paulsen in 2010, which would boost this race back into the top tier. Other Democrats interested in the race include Jim Meffert and Maureen Hackett.

• ME-Init (pdf): PPP polls Maine on Question 1 (the gay marriage initiative) and finds the state evenly split. 48% are in favor, and 48% are against. With a clear party line vote set, it looks like it’ll come down to independents, and they’re currently 50-44 in favor of the initiative (and thus against gay marriage).

• NJ-St. Ass.: While everyone has been focused on the governor’s race, there are also races for all the state Assembly seats in New Jersey in a few weeks as well. Republicans need to pick up eight seats in order to tie the Assembly (with a current Democratic advantage of 48-31). However, the fundraising advantage falls to the Democrats: taken together, Assembly Democrats have raised $6.8 million and spent $4 million, while Republicans have raised $2.9 million and spent $1.2 million. The financial disparity is especially pronounced in the “sleeper” districts where Republicans are counting on being able to make gains.

• Fundraising: There’s an interesting CQ piece on the sudden burst of fundraising among the Indian-American community, as that affluent and educated group gradually becomes more politically engaged. As you might have guessed, strong nationwide fundraising among Indian-Americans is what’s driving the surprisingly strong hauls from Ami Bera in CA-03, Manan Trivedi in PA-06, and Raj Goyle in KS-04.