Swing State Project

Needless to say, this would be a major game-changer:

It now appears that Freudenthal may well seek a third term in 2010 — thanks to a series of legal and political maneuvers that began more than two decades ago.

After Democratic Gov. Ed Herschler served three consecutive terms into the mid-1980s, the state legislature passed a bill limiting Wyoming’s chief executives to two terms. Then, in 1992, voters passed a ballot initiative that brought term limits to the state legislature in the finest “If it’s good for the goose, it’s good for the gander” tradition.

Fast-forward 12 years to a lawsuit brought by two term-limited legislators — a Democrat and a Republican — challenging the constitutionality of such limits. The state Supreme Court unanimously agreed that the term limits could not be imposed by ballot initiative, ruling that an amendment to the state constitution would be required.

While that decision did not apply to Wyoming’s five statewide offices — including governor — there is a strong sense that if Freudenthal challenged the constitutionality of his own term limits, it would be a slam-dunk victory for the incumbent.

Freudenthal seems an unlikely sort to pursue this kind of challenge – but he’s leaving the door wide open:

Asked about the possibility that Freudenthal would seek a third term, his spokeswoman Cara Eastwood said only: “When the governor has something to announce, he will announce it.”

Putting aside my own feelings about term limits & voter referenda, this would be great news for Democrats, of course. And here in NYC, it doesn’t appear that Bloombo is paying a price for extending his own term limits (despite far worse optics and behavior), so I suspect Freudenthal could pull it off.

Harry Reid: Leave, legislator, you don’t belong in this Chamber!

Roland Burris: It was not by MY ego that I was once again given government office!  I was appointed here by ROD BLAGOJEVICH, who wished to pay ME tribute!

Reid: Tribute?  He destroys politicians’ careers, and makes them his pawns!

Burris: Perhaps the same could be said of all scandal-plagued politicians.

Reid: Your words are as empty as your ethics!  The people of Illinois ill need a Senator such as you!

Burris: What is a Senate seat?!  A miserable little pile of campaign efforts!  But enough talk…have at you!

The economic stimulus bill generated a lot of talk about taxes. As we work our way out of this economic mess, we need innovative, effective solutions to taxes – not just short term band-aids. We need to move in a new direction. Here’s a big idea: let’s phase in a carbon tax, to protect our planet and reward productive investments.

How does this work? Raise the cost of carbon-based fuels through some form of federal tax on carbon emissions; these new revenues should be fully or partially offset by cuts in the income, payroll, or corporate income taxes.

In other words, let’s tax the things we don’t want and use the revenues to reduce taxes and costs on inventors, investors and innovative new businesses in the development of alternative energy sources. By permanently cutting taxes on workers and investors, we can help the economy recover through growth and higher employment- and have a cleaner, greener environment.

It’s extraordinary that groups ranging from the Sierra Club to the American Enterprise Institute recognize that a carbon tax makes sense for America. If you are up for a good read, check out: http://www.brookings.edu/~/med…

And, to shamelessly plug my own writing on the topic, http://finance.yahoo.com/exper…

In addition, let’s ensure that the stimulus bill starts this process, by shifting the transportation funding formulas to increase the amount that is dedicated to mass transit. Historically, only 20% of federal funding goes to transit with the remaining 80% focused on automobile infrastructure. This is out of whack with the future.  By investing more in transit, and removing various administrative hurdles, we can create more sustainable communities throughout the nation.

I know that the transition to a carbon tax will not be easy, but our current path is reckless and short-sighted. It must change.

I’m running for Congress in the 5th District in Illinois, because more than at any other point in my lifetime, good policy truly matters. I’m an economics expert who can bring big ideas – and practical solutions – at a time this is needed most.

Our national and local economy is the single most important issue in this election. We’re all scared. We’ve lost jobs. We’ve watched our retirement and college savings shrink, or disappear. We put our trust in our financial system, and it robbed us. Congress must act to stop the downward spiral and- more importantly- take steps to make sure this can never happen again. The carbon tax is one tool in our toolbox that can fix our energy and environmental issues for the long term.

Smells like… victory.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/9-11, registered voters):

Byron Dorgan (D-inc): 57

John Hoeven (R): 35

(MoE: ±4%)

Conventional wisdom seems to dictate that in the 2010 North Dakota senate race, Byron Dorgan is safe despite North Dakota’s red-state status… unless popular Republican governor John Hoeven runs, in which case we’d have an epic battle. There’s been no indication, however, that Hoeven intends to run, and based on R2K’s first poll of this race, he may not want to bother.

Despite the fact that he’s just as well-known and popular as Dorgan (Hoeven’s favorables are 68/27, while Dorgan’s are 67/30), Hoeven loses by a substantial margin, losing every part of the state and every demographic category except “Republicans.” As Kos speculates, North Dakotans, like other small-staters (consider Alaskans’ attachment to Ted Stevens), know well how linked their local economy is to federal appropriations, and seem unwilling to trade in Dorgan’s decades of seniority and powerful committee posts.

Wow:

Republican Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire has withdrawn his nomination to become President Barack Obama’s commerce secretary.

In a statement released by his office, the New Hampshire senator cites “irresolvable conflicts” on issues including the economic stimulus package.

I wonder if these “irresolvable conflicts” included the humiliation of being stripped of authority over the 2010 Census.

So Gregg goes back to the Senate (he never left). Does this mean he’ll run again in 2010? There had been a considerable amount of doubt about that point for a while before his Cabinet nomination, and his initial acceptance of the Cabinet slot seemed to confirm that he was losing interest in his Senate career.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup, but we are monitoring Gregg’s re-elections plans closely and will update our ratings if need be.

(Hat-tip: Cheekster)

UPDATE: First Read and the Union Leader both confirm that Gregg won’t run for another term in 2010. (Hat-tips: LeftistAddiction and omarka)

Strategic Vision (R) has a new poll of the Florida Senate race, with some different names being polled than past polls.  The poll results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted February 6-8, 2009. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

2010 Senate Democratic Primary

Ron Klein 12%

Kendrick Meek 10%

Pam Iorio 8%

Dan Gelber 4%

Undecided 66%

2010 Senate Republican Primary with Crist

Charlie Crist 54%

Connie Mack IV 16%

Vern Buchanan 10%

Alan Bense 7%

Marco Rubio 4%

Undecided 9%

2010 Senate Republican Primary without Crist

Connie Mack IV 21%

Vern Buchanan 11%

Alan Bense 8%

Marco Rubio 5%

Undecided 9%

2010 Senate General Election

Crist 58%, Klein 24%

Crist 60%, Meek 26%

Crist 57%, Iorio 29%

Crist 58%, Gelber 27%

Mack 32%, Klein 27%

Mack 35%, Meek 25%

Mack 32%, Iorio 30%

Mack 33%, Gelber 20%

Buchanan 24%, Klein 28%

Buchanan 29%, Meek 23%

Buchanan 26%, Iorio 30%

Buchanan 23%, Gelber 20%

Bense 22%, Klein 27%

Bense 28%, Meek 21%

Bense 24%, Iorio 30%

Bense 27%, Gelber 25%

Rubio 18%, Klein 29%

Rubio 26%, Meek 24%

Rubio 19%, Iorio 32%

Rubio 22%, Gelber 17%

Not sure if this poll tells us too much.  Clearly, Crist dominates if he runs.  If he doesn’t, then the race is wide open.

Among the Democrats, Iorio consistently polled best in the general election match-ups, followed by Klein, then Meek, with Gelber last.  Of course, there are huge numbers of undecideds, so it’s impossible to say who would be the strongest general election candidate for the Democrats this far out.  When the primary is this open, I hope the DSCC stays out, as I think the strongest candidate tends to emerge from the primary.