Swing State Project

PPP (1/17-18, registered voters):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45

John Kasich (R): 39

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Ted Strickland has a lead going into the 2010 election against likely opponent ex-Rep. John Kasich, but it’s a surprisingly small lead (6 points, and under the 50% mark informally assumed to be the safety zone). Strickland started out extremely popular, but has perhaps suffered a bit in tandem with Ohio’s dismal economy.

Strickland’s favorables aren’t that bad (he’s at 48 favorable/35 unfavorable, compared with 34/24 for the dimly-remembered Kasich, who was a House GOP up-and-comer in the 90s but oddly retired in 2000). As PPP themselves point out, part of the problem with the topline may be a screwy sub-sample of African-Americans; only 52% support Strickland, while Democratic candidates typically pull 80-90% of the black vote in Ohio.

(H/t conspiracy.)

We’re going to fire up a new project here at Swing State Project, now that we’ve churned through the competitive senate and gubernatorial races in our statewide recruiting threads. We’re moving on to the House races where we’re facing the most vulnerable Republicans. We’ll be turning to the Vulnerability Index that I put together last week as a means of seeing who exactly those vulnerable Republicans are.

Actually, it’s not an entirely new project, as last week diarist peebles put up a couple very good diaries on this topic, on two of our best pickup opportunities in 2010, LA-02 and MN-03. Based on the traffic these diaries got, it’s a topic that belongs on the front page, and we’ll be discussing other top pickup possibilities in coming days.

So with LA-02 already discussed, let’s turn to what the numbers tell me is the 2nd most vulnerable seat: PA-06. Jim Gerlach, despite his moderate record, has labored to hold onto this D+2 seat in Philadelphia’s western suburbs. His margins have never broken out of the low single digits, even when faced with a little-known second-tier opponent like Bob Roggio in 2008. Added to the mix is the possibility that Gerlach, fed up with close races and the possibility of a redistricting-related demise in 2012, may be looking to vacate this seat to run for the governor’s seat in 2010. This would leave an open seat where Dems might well be favored (although longtime state representative Curt Schroder has dibs on the GOP nomination, and could be a strong opponent).

With that in mind, here are some possible Democratic contenders for the seat:

Bob Roggio: We’ve had a good deal of fun at SSP at Roggio’s expense, but you have to admit that he performed very well, in the final accounting, as an underfunded opponent starting out virtually unknown (coming closer than, say, Dan Seals or Darcy Burner, who had the big money and familiarity advantages while running in similar districts). Roggio himself says that he was feeling 50-50 about running again, if Gerlach didn’t run.

Joe Torsella: This is the same Joe Torsella you sometimes see mentioned in the context of the 2010 Senate race, where he’d be a major underdog. He was deputy mayor of Philadelphia under Ed Rendell in his early 30s, was director of the National Constitution Center for a decade until last month (indicating something’s brewing), and lost to Allyson Schwartz in the PA-13 primary to replace Joe Hoeffel. He was rumored to have been a 2008 candidate; he certainly seems interested in running for something next time, and PA-06 seems more within his pay grade than the Senate.

Christopher Casey: Seems like there’s a Casey waiting to go in almost every district, and that’s good, as the Casey name is still golden. Christopher is brother to the current senator, and is an attorney in Philly (though a Chester County resident). He turned down DCCC recruitment efforts for the 2008 election.

Andy Dinniman: There’s not much of a bench of state senators to draw from in this district (indicating that we still have a long way to go in turning the Philly burbs blue at the legislative and county courthouse levels). Dinniman, from West Chester in the 19th Senate district, turned down the chance to run in 2008. The only other Dem senator who may (or may not) be in this district is Michael O’Pake from Reading in the 11th Senate district. (Reading is gerrymandered in half, to keep its minority populations out of PA-06, so O’Pake may reside in PA-16. Also, he’s in the Dem minority leadership in the Senate, and may be focused on staying there.) Democratic state representatives in this district include Paul Drucker from Tredyffrin Twp. and Dave Kessler from Boyertown.

Melissa Fitzgerald: The former West Wing actress, who has local connections to the district, was reportedly interested in the race last time, but eventually faded from view. Other names that burbled up in the search that eventually gave us Bob Roggio, who could resurface, include Larry Platt, a Philadelphia magazine editor, and Mike Leibowitz, a Montgomery County real estate executive who lost the MontCo Dems endorsement to Roggio.

UPDATE: One other name that I hadn’t considered, but has been suggested both in a comment from a PA-06 resident and in an e-mail from an in-the-know tipster, is Dan Wofford, son of ex-Sen. Harris Wofford and the 2002 candidate who barely lost in Gerlach’s first race. He’s been out of the limelight since then, but apparently is considering another shot.

Any Pennsylvanians out there have any other scuttlebutt or ideas?

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

I expected Kasich to competitive but to be within single digits is somewhat of a surprise. Strickland is in positive territory with his approvals (+13) but this looks like being a bit of a battle if Kasich pulls the trigger.

“One good piece of news for Strickland is that he gets more support from white voters than Kasich in a hypothetical match up. Any Democrat in Ohio who wins the white vote will easily win statewide. The race is only as close as it is at this point because Strickland gets just 52% of the black vote. Polling far away from an election tends to underestimate African American support for Democratic candidates, and it seems likely Strickland will end up earning closer to 80-90% of the black vote when the election actually comes.”

Let us hope so.

Quinnipiac (1/14-19, registered voters):

Alex Sink (D): 15

Kendrick Meek (D): 13

Ron Klein (D): 9

Allen Boyd (D): 8

Dan Gelber (D): 1

Don’t know: 54

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Bill McCollum (R): 22

Connie Mack IV (R): 21

Vern Buchanan (R): 10

Marco Rubio (R): 6

Allan Bense (R): 2

Don’t know: 39

(MoE: ±4.3%)

If the primary elections for the Florida senate race were held today, “Don’t know” would sweep both nominations in a landslide. At this point, this is a name recognition test, and Floridians seem to have no idea who these candidates are. At any rate, there seems to be something of a hierarchy here: statewide officials (Sink, McCollum) fare best, then U.S. Representatives, with state legislative leaders down in no man’s land.

On the Dem side, Kendrick Meek has the edge among current candidates. But assuming that he comes in with fairly high name rec from being in the state’s largest media market, and that he’s probably already consolidated the state’s African-American vote, he may not have as much room to grow as the other candidates.

Unfortunately, this poll has a major wrinkle; it was in the field when Alex Sink announced that she wasn’t going to be a Senate candidate, so presumably some respondents were operating under the assumption that Sink was a likely candidate while others knew that she wouldn’t be. In fact, the only head-to-head Quinnipiac tried out involved Sink as the Dem nominee (McCollum 36, Sink 35, with 29 don’t know). Here’s hoping they try again soon with some other permutations.

Hello! I’m Charlie Wheelan and I’m running for Congress in the 5th District of Illinois to replace Congressman Rahm Emanuel, who has resigned to serve as Barack Obama’s chief of staff.

You can learn more about me at

http://www.WheelanforCongress.com

This was a remarkable day. I remember when Barack Obama spoke at our neighbor’s house, just over the back alley, when he was beginning his run for the Senate. I remember sitting with Leah at the kitchen table reading in the Sun-Times that Obama might run for president, and being thrilled by the mere idea of it. And I remember standing outside the old Capitol in Springfield on a cold January day when he made his official announcement for president-the bookend to what we watched today.

Obama was obviously on the front page of today’s Chicago Tribune. But I want to draw your attention to David Greising’s column in the business section, which focuses on my candidacy. He writes of my candidacy, “This is part of what makes this country great. Congress is chock-full of politicians, certainly. But there are also are a smattering of citizens who get motivated, leave lives of comfort, put themselves in front of the people and try to do some good.”

The timing of the column is not coincidence. Greising writes that Inauguration Day-“when a once-obscure former University of Chicago law professor takes the presidential oath of office”-is a good time to contemplate how a tough race can turn out well. I urge you to read the whole article and pass it on.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/…

If you’re inspired today, please help us capture that momentum to upgrade Congress as well.

Thanks,

Charlie

A Democratic President, a Democratic Senate and a Democratic House. We’ve been waiting for this for fifteen years – that’s half my lifetime. And it’s finally here. Wow.

Of course, Rahm Emanuel is irreplaceable. But nonetheless, the filing deadline for the IL-05 special election closed earlier tonight. Twenty-six candidates filed, including fifteen Dems. Here’s what the Democratic field will look like (in alphabetical order, with descriptions mostly taken from Wikipedia):

Annunzio, Frank – great newphew of Frank Annunzio, deceased longtime Chicago-area Congressman

Bryar, Paul – physician at Northwestern Memorial and professor at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine

Capparelli, Cary – marketing consultant

Dagher, Pete – former Bill Clinton and Barack Obama staffer

Donatelli, Jan – former commercial pilot

Feigenholtz, Sara – state Representative

Forys, Victor – physician

Fritchey, John – state Representative

Geoghegan, Tom – labor attorney and author

Monteagudo, Carlos

O’Connor, Patrick – Chicago alderman

Oberman, Justin – former Transportation Security Administration administrator (and son of former Alderman Marty Oberman)

Quigley, Mike – Cook County commissioner

Thompson, Roger

Wheelan, Charles – Senior Lecturer at the University of Chicago and author

Progress Illinois says there are no real surprises here, though they’re skeptical of how seriously Ald. Pat O’Connor will run (he filed at 4:59pm – second thoughts?). Nonetheless, there are still several big names here (principally Feingenholtz and Fritchey), making it a challenge for other candidates to break through, especially in such a short time-frame.

The primary is on March 3rd.

Associated Press:

Democratic Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo believes he would have the upper hand if he decides to run for the Senate seat now held by the Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Bunning.

Mongiardo told The Associated Press on Friday that if he enters the race he expects the 77-year-old Republican to bow out. Bunning eked out a win in 2004 when Mongiardo, then a littleknown state senator from Hazard, ran for the post.

Mongiardo said he believes Bunning would rather not run than to face him again.

Mongiardo said: “I don’t think Sen. Bunning has the fight left in him to run.”

Meanwhile, where is Jim Bunning?

Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning’s absence during the busy first week of the 111th Congress has raised questions about the 77-year-old junior senator’s viability as a candidate for re-election in 2010.

So far this month, Bunning, who sits on the Senate’s Finance, Energy and Natural Resources and Banking committees, missed three cabinet confirmation hearings and a GOP strategy session on President-elect Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package. He’s also missed critical votes on releasing the second portion of the $700 billion federal bailout on the nation’s troubled financial sector – a measure Bunning has staunchly opposed.

Bunning’s congressional staffers attribute his absences to family commitments and declined to discuss where the senator has been for the better part of a month. He did not return a call for comment, but his office issued a statement saying Bunning is ready to take on whomever the Democratic Party fields as a candidate next year.

I like Dr. Dan for this race, and I like seeing a candidate with some fire in his belly. But is he really trying to goad Bunning into retirement? The CW – which I agree with – is that Dems would much rather take on the Hall of Fame pitcher than a generic R replacement. Then again, if Jimbo is pulling a Pajama Pete maneuver (Jammy Jimmy?), Mongiardo may just be embracing the inevitable.

(Hat-tip: P)

Outgoing Delaware Lt. Gov. John Carney says in a podcast (go to about 19:45):

It’s been difficult to get people to step up to the plate and run against Congressman Castle. I gotta tell you, that’s something I’m looking at right now.

This is pretty big news – Carney would probably be our best bet to take on Castle in 2010. (DE, regularly blue for several cycles, went for the Obama-Biden ticket by a 62-37 margin.) Carney also mentions that he might be interested in a Senate run. However, in this interview, he suggests that he’s not interested in repeat his bruising 2008 gubernatorial primary experience in a Senate face-off with, say, Beau Biden. So if Beau runs for his dad’s old seat, Carney could well take on Old Man Mike.

(Thanks to Jeremiah for spotting SG’s catch of this Delaware Liberal post.)