Swing State Project

Last Tuesday night, before I went to bed, I noticed that I couldn’t access the Swing State Project. I figured it was a temporary hiccup that would clear itself up before long. On Wednesday morning, though, as I’m sure every SSP reader noticed, the site was still inaccessible.

A post at SoapBlox, whose software powers this site and many others, sent my heart through my chest: Hackers had gained access to the servers and had apparently wiped out untold reams of data. Two years of SSP posts, diaries, comments, jokes – all gone. It was worse than my worst nightmare, because I never imagined anything like this.

Fortunately – extremely fortunately – after a few hours of frantic behind-the-scenes scrambling, sites started coming back online, including SSP. We can’t say for sure just yet, but mercifully, our archives look to be intact. Still, it was a truly terrible morning.

And it came about because we’d been asking too much of one man, Paul Preston, for whom SoapBlox was and is a labor of love that, of necessity, has to come after his day job. However, BlogPAC has stepped up and put forth a detailed plan for ensuring SoapBlox’s future security and stability.

Of course, this sort of thing takes money. BlogPAC’s plan will cost $17,400 to implement. While I’d always prefer to ask you to donate to Democratic candidates for office, this too is a worthy cause.  Over 100 progressive blogs rely on SoapBlox, which offers critical community-building features found on no other blogging platform. In particular, only SoapBlox provides, out-of-the-box, the user diaries which separate ordinary blogs from true communities.

I love what we’ve built here at SSP and I couldn’t be prouder. As I’ve often said, the biggest and best part of our success comes from having a dedicated and enthusiastic group of readers, commenters and diarists. While Swing State could surely move to another software platform if we absolutely had to, I know things would just not be the same.

It goes without saying things are tough economically, so I know this is not an ideal time for an ask. But if you can spare a few bucks to put SoapBlox back on surer footing, we’d be exceptionally grateful. Thank you.

UPDATE: Non-U.S. readers can donate via PayPal (click on the button below). Paul informs us that so far $50 has come through via PayPal, which means we are still about $350 short of our goal. If you’d like to see a list of some of the concrete changes already taking place at SoapBlox, check out this post.

The State Central Committee of the Republican Party of Iowa picked a new party chairman yesterday. The winner was Matt Strawn, a former Congressional staffer best known as part of the group that owns the Iowa Barnstormers arena football team.

I’ve written more at Bleeding Heartland about the challenges facing Strawn as he takes over the divided Republican Party of Iowa, so I won’t go into too much detail about Iowa politics here.

I thought the Swing State Project community would be interested in Strawn’s promise to use technology to improve Republicans’ standing with younger voters:

Strawn, 35, noted that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama beat Republican John McCain by 2-1 among young adults in Iowa. He said part of the problem is Republicans have failed to use modern communications methods, such as Twitter and Facebook. People are left with the impression that the party either doesn’t know how to use those channels or doesn’t care to, he said. “Either way, we’re sending a terrible message.” […]

Strawn said at a press conference that he would reach out to all age groups as he seeks to build up party registrations, raise money and recruit strong candidates for office. He vowed to regain the majorities in both houses of the Legislature, win back the governorship and make gains in Congress.

He said Republicans could do all those things without watering down the party’s conservative priorities. “If we communicate our beliefs, we can win elections,” he said.

There’s no question that the Republican Party lost young voters by large margins in 2006 and 2008, and not just in Iowa. This map created by Mike Connery shows that if only voters aged 18-29 had cast ballots for president, John McCain would have won fewer than ten states.

Republicans should be asking themselves why young voters are rejecting their candidates in such large numbers. It wasn’t always this way. When I was growing up in the 1980s, the Republican Party did quite well with the 18-30 age group, including college students. In fact, my age cohort is still relatively strong for Republicans. (A chart in this post shows the presidential vote among young Americans for the past 30 years.)

Strawn’s answer is that the GOP’s failure to fully exploit new technology is “sending a terrible message” to young voters. He won over State Central Committee members in part thanks to a technologically savvy online campaign (a blog with occasional YouTube video postings).

I sincerely hope that Republicans continue to believe that their recent election losses are rooted in communication problems. I think the Republicans’ ideology is what turns off young voters. The tendency for Republicans to campaign on “culture war” issues exacerbates this problem, highlighting the topics that make the party seem out of touch to younger voters.

Some Republicans want their candidates to emphasize economic issues more and downplay divisive social issues. Shortly after the election, Doug Gross discussed the Republican Party’s problems on Iowa Public Television. Gross worked for Republican Governors Bob Ray and Terry Branstad in the 1970s and 1980s, and he was the Republican nominee for governor against Tom Vilsack in 2002. Gross had this advice for Republican candidates:

What we really have to do is speak to the fundamental issues that Iowans care about which is I’m working hard every day, in many cases a couple of jobs, my wife works as well, we take care of our kids and yet the government is going to increase our taxes, they’re going to increase spending and they’re going to give that to somebody who is not working.  That kind of message will win for republicans among the people we have and we’ve gotten away from that.  

Ah yes, the glory days, when Republicans could win by running against “tax and spend” Democrats who supposedly took money away from hard-working Americans and gave it to “welfare queens” and other unemployed ne’er-do-wells.

I am not convinced that this is a winning message anymore. Nationwide exit polling from the most recent election showed that a majority of voters believe government should do more, not less. The same exit poll found Barack Obama won even though most people believed Republican claims that he would raise taxes.

Moreover, rising unemployment is not just an issue for lower-income or blue-collar workers. Layoffs are also hitting groups that have trended toward the Democratic Party in the last decade: suburban dwellers, white-collar professionals and college-educated whites generally. Even in affluent neighborhoods, just about everyone knows someone who has been laid off in the past six months. Government assistance to the unemployed may be more popular now than it was in the 1980s.

Losing your job means losing your health insurance for many Americans, which is particularly scary for those who have “pre-existing conditions.” More and more people are delaying routine preventive care and treatment for chronic conditions in this tough economy. Other families have been devastated after a private insurance company denied coverage for expensive, medically necessary procedures.

I believe that the problems with our health care system are another reason that Republican “small government” rhetoric has less salience now than it did 20 years ago.

As I’ve written before, Republican prospects for a comeback may have less to do with new GOP leadership than with how well the Democrats govern. If Democrats do well, they will keep winning elections. If they screw up, the Republicans may rebound no matter what party leaders do at the RNC or in contested states like Iowa.

On the other hand, if Republicans want to do more than sit back and wait for Democrats to self-destruct, they will need to acknowledge that their problems go beyond communication skills. Many conservative beliefs are outside the American mainstream. I don’t think the Republican Party can twitter and YouTube its way out of the hole they’re in, especially when it comes to younger voters.  

Politico:

Ohio Republican George Voinovich is expected to announce Monday that he won’t seek reelection to the Senate in 2010.

A two-term senator, former governor and Cleveland mayor, Voinovich has been a political fixture in his state for decades. But recent press reports from his home state have indicated the 72-year-old lawmaker is considering retirement, and a person close to him told Politico that the announcement will come Monday. […]

A Voinovich spokesman would only confirm that he will make an announcement Monday on his future. But a Senate Republican leadership aide said that Voinovich’s planned retirement is “real” and an announcement will come soon.

Assuming Voiny follows through tomorrow, his announcement will be the fourth GOP Senate retirement this cycle so far (Brownback, Martinez, and Bond being the other three amigos), and will hand Democrats another excellent opportunity to pad their majority.

For the Democrats, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and 17th CD Rep. Tim Ryan appear to be on a primary collision course, though other names could conceivably throw down, as well. Republican contenders include ex-Reps. Rob Portman and John Kasich, though it might be nice for House Democrats if someone like, say, current 12th CD Rep. Pat Tiberi gave up his seat to run for the job, as well.

Perhaps more importantly, the recent wave of Republican retirements seems to have induced a certain level of panic among Senate GOPers:

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), one of the biggest fundraisers for the NRSC last cycle, said the wave of retirements has caused some panic among Republicans.

“I’m really concerned because it’s important we have some balance here because if we don’t, one side can do whatever it wants to do, and that’s not good for the country,” Hatch said. “To the extent that some of these folks decide to leave and they certainly have the right to do that, we’re going to have to find good candidates to run and hopefully hold onto our seats.”

Finding good candidates should be Job No. 1 for Republicans right now, but the early signs aren’t all that encouraging for John Cornyn’s NRSC: Jeb Bush has already turned down a Senate seat that could have easily been his in Florida, and the committee has no obvious silver bullets in Missouri and Ohio. Moreover, we have yet to hear much in the way of serious buzz surrounding challenges to Democratic incumbents in 2010.

Republicans may have some wind at their backs if Obama stumbles or if the national economy slides further over the next two years, but they may not be in much of a position to take advantage of that if they end up being saddled by retirements and recruitment failures made in these early days of no hope.

More discussion already under way in Populista’s diary.

Update: CNN says that their sources are also confirming the same details about Voinovich’s announcement tomorrow, which will come at 4pm Eastern.

So says Politico

Ohio Republican George Voinovich is expected to announce Monday that he won’t seek re-election to the Senate in 2010.

Cue the music

This is retirement number four for Big Bad John and Co. just five days into the 11th Congress. In addition to that everyone knows that Kay Bailey Hutchison will make a run for governor and may resign to focus on that. Democrats have legitimate chances to pick up all of them.

Republicans likely to take a shot at the seat include Rob Portman and John Kasich. Democrats have a large field of potential candidates including Rep. Tim Ryan and Rep. Betty Sutton but the CW in Ohio says that Lt. Governor Lee Fisher will run and clear the field with Gov. Ted Strickland’s backing.  

The Republicans so far are dropping like flies. Big Bad John Deathwatch Part 1?

Also at this point in the 2008 cycle no Republican had announced their retirement. Wayne Allard announced his retirement on January 15th, 2007. The next retirement wasn’t until August 31. In 2006 only Bill Frist retired for the Republicans.  If I remember correctly Democrats won quite a few seats in those elections, imagine what 2010 will look like.  

Rasmussen (1/6, likely voters, no trendlines):

Caroline Kennedy (D): 51

Peter King (R): 33

Other: 9

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

A rather different picture from PPP’s poll earlier in the week, though it’s a bit hard to compare directly since Rasmussen for whatever reason did not also ask about Cuomo. (They also failed to test DavidNYC vs. King.) I am a little mystified about Rasmu’s choice to use a likely voter screen some two years before any election – how can they possibly judge that?

Anyhow, we should finally have our answer as to who the next junior senator from New York will be in a couple of weeks. Can’t happen soon enough.

Farleigh Dickinson (1/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40

Chris Christie (R): 33

Undecided: 26

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 46

Steve Lonegan (R): 28

Undecided: 26

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 43

Rick Merkt (R): 23

Undecided: 33

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Chris Christie is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey who just filed papers to run. He’s been touted for a while, and from the looks of at least this poll, he could make it a serious contest. And with Obama about to take office, Christie will be replaced (zomg! Obama’s politicizing the DOJ!), so he’ll be able to devote his full attention to this race.

Lonegan is the hyper-conservative former mayor of Bogota, a north Jersey “borough” with a population roughly the size of modern-day Wasilla, Alaska. He also took a stab at this race four years ago, coming in fourth in the seven-person primary won by Doug Forrester. Merkt, meanwhile, is a state Assemblyman who represents a district that’s also in northern New Jersey. Both declared in 2008.

I’d be pretty surprised if Christie didn’t win the primary. Jersey Republicans haven’t won a single statewide race since 1997, but ever since wingnut Brett Schundler’s disastrous run for governor in 2001, they’ve typically been able to put forth their least-sucky candidates. And right now, Christie is in the driver’s seat for the primary:

Christie: 32

Lonegan: 15

Merkt: 5

Undecided: 47

The self-funder Corzine will have no shortage of cash, but his favorables are under water at 42-44 (his job approval is a bit better, 46-40). With a wretched economic climate as backdrop, he’ll likely have a titanic struggle on his hands if Christie can prove himself at all competent as a campaigner. The scary thing is that Christie only has 44% name rec in the poll. That’s a lot of room to grow. Corzine should be very concerned.

(Hat-tip: Political Wire)

But for what? Roll Call:

Former Pennsylvania Rep. Pat Toomey (R) said he is considering a statewide bid in 2010, either for governor or another primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.).

“I haven’t ruled out a statewide run in 2010,” Toomey said in an interview this week.

Since losing the GOP primary to Specter by 2 points in 2004, Toomey has run the Club for Growth while living in Zionsville, Pa. In an interview in the club’s Washington, D.C., office, Toomey said he has not spoken with Specter since before the general election in 2004.

But it’s more likely that Toomey would make a bid for governor, said a Pennsylvania Republican operative close to him. The operative cautioned, however, that he would not swear off a Specter challenge if the trademark moderate Republican Senator verges too far to the left on certain issues – for example, the “card check” vote that would make it easier for workers to unionize.

If you believe Roll Call’s unnamed “operative”, it sounds like Toomey isn’t really serious about another run against Specter — the card check nonsense sounds like an idle threat to ensure that Snarlin’ Arlen toes the wingnut line once again.

Tear the roof off the sucker.

Update: I just want to give a shout-out to the third graders at Gladys Wood Elementary School DCal for leaving the 50,000th comment on SSP since we moved over to Soapblox just a bit over two years ago.

Strike one off the list:

Missouri Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R) will not run for Senate in 2010, her office confirmed Friday morning. Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.) announced Thursday that he is retiring from the Senate after four terms.

Emerson spokesman Jeffrey Connor said the Congresswoman was content to stay in the House with her new post as the ranking member on the Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government.

Many people who read Swing State Project have never heard of Soapblox. It’s an “inexpensive, community-building content management platform developed by Paul Preston and currently used by over 100 progressive blogs,” including this one and several of my other favorites: Open Left, La Vida Locavore, and Progressive Blue.

The Iowa blog Bleeding Heartland, where I do most of my writing, is among the two dozen state community blogs for Democrats that use Soapblox.

This week hackers got into Soapblox and wreaked havoc with some of the servers, temporarily forcing several blogs off-line, including Swing State Project.

Preston has always charged low monthly fees to make the platform accessible for progressive bloggers, allowing many new community blogs to get going in the past few years.

If you appreciate this and other community blogs, the number one thing you can do to keep them going is to help BlogPAC save Soapblox.

Chris Bowers gives some background in this diary and explains what Soapblox needs “to become safe and secure once again.”

He has set up a special ActBlue page to raise money for Soapblox. They need $17,400 to complete the security measures.

On a related note, BlogPAC has done wonderful work supporting progressive change. For that reason, I have donated my share of the Bleeding Heartland advertising revenues to BlogPAC since I started writing there nearly two years ago.

In addition to raising money for Soapblox, BlogPAC is helping Tom Geoghegan for Congress in Illinois’s fifth district (the seat vacated by Barack Obama’s chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel). You can read more about Geoghegan here. If you can spare a few extra bucks in this tough economy, please consider throwing them his way.