Swing State Project

Last week we had some unexpected fireworks in the Texas State House of Representatives, where the Republicans have a narrow numeric edge but a coalition of Democrats and non-insane Republicans joined together to kick out long-time, thuggish Speaker Tom Craddick in favor of a more moderate Republican. Today, a very similar scenario played out on in the Tennessee House of Representatives.

The Democrats have long held the Tennessee House, and the GOP’s pickup of the chamber (by a 50-49 margin) was one of the few surprises on the state legislative front in the 2008 election. Tennesseans seemed resigned to at least two years of wingnuts-gone-wild, under the leadership of House Republican leader Jason Mumpower (not to be confused with one of SSP’s favorite punching bags, eccentric failed NC-11 candidate Carl Mumpower).

However, outgoing Democratic Speaker Jimmy Naifeh came up with a bright idea: promote Kent Williams, probably the most moderate member of the GOP caucus, as Speaker. The result: Williams beat Mumpower by a vote of 50-49 (all the Democrats, plus Williams himself). While Williams will continue to be a Republican, he promises that a number of committee chairs will be Democrats.

Tennessee Republicans, in the aftermath, conducted themselves with their usual level of decorum and graciousness:

Speaker Williams said he heard expletives being used by fellow Republicans. He said he still considers himself a Republican and emphasized that he would be fair to Republicans and Democrats. He predicted that history will show that this will be a “great thing” for the state.

When state Rep. Gerald McCormick, R-Chattanooga, approached the new Speaker, Rep. Williams warned him that if he used “the f-word,” he would be thrown out.

Rep. McCormick responded by telling the new Speaker that he is a “disgrace to the state. You are a disgrace to the state.”

Let’s start looking at the seat that freezer-burn cash built.

-Helena Moreno (D), TV Personality

-William Jefferson (D), former Congressman

-Karen Carter Peterson (D), Speaker Pro Tem, State House

-Edwin Murray (D), State Senator

-Cheryl Gray (D), State Senator

-Keva Landrum Johnson, New Orleans District Attorney

Every week, I am going to try to start up a new thread on a possible cool race to identify possible candidates.

Probable Democrats:

I see the two clear front runners being people who have run before against Jefferson, Helena Moreno, and Karen Carter Peterson.  EDIT: Cedric Richmond has been added.  See bios:

-Helena Moreno (D):

Throughout her college years, Helena wrote for the SMU college newspaper, The Daily Campus. She interned with KHOU-TV and KTRK-TV in Houston. In 1999, Helena graduated and immediately began working as a television reporter in Savannah, Georgia’s WTOC. In short order, she began anchoring on the weekends. One year later, Hearst-Argyle Broadcasting Corporation recruited Helena to report for its New Orleans station, WDSU-TV.

Her journalistic talents earned top honors from the Associated Press and Press Club of New Orleans. She was part of the team that earned an EMMY for outstanding coverage of Hurricane Katrina. During Katrina, Helena reported non-stop for 18 hours through the worst of the storm, and then reported throughout the recovery.

http://www.morenoforcongress.com/

She took 43% of the primary vote away from Jefferson this time around and would make a formidable candidate again.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2…

-Karen Carter Peterson (D)

Peterson is a political protégé of Jim Singleton, a former city councilman and the leader of the powerful BOLD political organization. With the help of BOLD, Peterson was elected in 1999 to the Louisiana state legislature as a representative for the 93rd district, which encompasses New Orleans’s CBD, the upper French Quarter, and parts of Central City and Mid-City. In the state legislature, she was one of the most vocal supporters of a plan to reform the New Orleans public school system by putting it under state control, and was a backer of the levee board consolidation bill. Peterson is a member of the moderate Democratic Leadership Council.

http://house.louisiana.gov/H_R…

She took 49% in 2006 again Jefferson, and can make the claim that she alone was fighting against him and his corruption.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K…

-Cedric Richmond (D)

After passing the Louisiana Bar Exam, Cedric was elected to the Louisiana House of Representatives where he has been a leader and served with distinction since 2000. Currently, he is the Chairman of the committee on Judiciary and a member of the Ways and Means, House Executive, and Legislative Audit Advisory committees.

Cedric has been instrumental in many important issues in the legislature. He created the State New Markets Tax Credit program which spurred over 250 million dollars in investment in Louisiana’s devastated areas after the storms of 2005. He also secured funding for small business incubators and grant programs. As a member of the and Co-chairman of the Legislative Audit Advisory committee, Cedric was vital in ending the waste and misappropriation of funds in the Orleans Parish School system.

During his tenure in office, Cedric has remained a strong advocate for the people of his district and vows to continue to keep fighting to make tomorrow and all of the tomorrows to come better.

He got 17% against Jefferson and Moreno is 2008 in the Democratic Primary.

http://www400.sos.louisiana.go…

Other Dems:

Now, there are other democrats who could make an entry, from what I can tell, who would be good.  I have listed them below and provided links:

-Edwin Murray (D), State Senator

Represents the French quarter and has served in some post since 1992.  Is well known in the district and could be the only bona-fide male running which would be to his advantage.  

http://www.edwinmurray.com/ind…

-Cheryl Gray (D), State Senator

Gray appears to highlight her crime and education reform issues, which is appealing in New Orleans post-Katrina.  

http://www.electcherylgray.com…

-Keva Landrum Johnson, New Orleans District Attorney

Might be appealing because she is African-American, a woman, and someone who is viewed with genuine respect.  Is a registered Democrat.  

http://blog.nola.com/times-pic…

So, who is missing?  How needs to be eliminated?  Who needs to be considered more closely?  Is Jefferson going to run again?

http://www.minnpost.com/politi…

Looks like RT Rybak is out of the race for governor.  Chris Coleman, St Paul mayor, is also running for re-election.  That leaves:

Susan Gaertner, Ramsey County Attorney

Mark Dayton, Former (1 Term) Senator

Matt Etenza, Former MN House Democratic Leader

Margaret Kelliher, MN Speaker of the House

Mark Ritchie, MN Secretary of State

Paul Thissen, MN Rep

Tom Bakk, MN Sen

Tim Walz, US Rep

I don’t think Kelliher will run.  I hope Dayton doesn’t.  Walz looks like the clear favorite.

Good news:

Senate Minority Leader Capri Cafaro of Liberty, D-32nd, said she’s not interested in running for the U.S. Senate.

Not so good news:

But if Ryan decides to run for the Senate, thus not seeking re-election to the House, Cafaro may run for the House seat. She’d first wait for Ryan to announce his candidacy for the Senate.

“It’s not something I’d rule out,” she said. “I’d consider that option at that time, but it’s very premature.”

For a two-minute refresher on Cafaro, see this vintage DavidNYC post for more.

Update: Another thought here — this would be the third CD that Cafaro has run in during the past six years. She already ran (and flamed out horribly) against 14th District Rep. Steve LaTourette in 2004, and then lost the 13th CD primary in 2006 after Sherrod Brown ran for Senate.

Chris Cilliza is reporting that Patrick Murphy will stay out, according to his sources.

Reps. Joe Sestak and Patrick J. Murphy: Sestak isn’t interested; Murphy has been more coy but ultimately will stay out, our sources say.

He also mentions the other probables:

Joe Torsella: Torsella’s name might be familiar to political junkies, as he ran a well-funded but ultimately unsuccessful primary against Rep. Allyson Schwartz in 2004 for the open 13th Congressional District seat. Torsella went on to raise the money for and then run the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. An X factor in Torsella’s favor? He is very close to Gov. Ed Rendell, having served as a deputy mayor when Rendell ruled Philadelphia.

ad_icon

Allyson Y. Schwartz: The congresswoman has run for the Senate — she lost a primary to then-Rep. Ron Klink in 2000 — and has made no secret of her interest in another statewide bid. Schwartz would almost certainly have the financial and organizational support of Emily’s List, a powerful chit in her favor, particularly in a Democratic primary. Schwartz’s hurdle is whether she can sell herself as a candidate outside the Philadelphia media market.

Jack Wagner: The state’s auditor general is the lone candidate seriously considering the race who comes from the western part of the state, a huge advantage in a state where geography looms large. Wagner is mulling a run for governor, and there is some sense among political sharps that he will ultimately take that route.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

To me, the most appealing name there is Rep. Schwartz who is a solid progressive and has shown electability.  She however, would have to work on outside Philly, which is something that I think she could do.

Another person who I think would be incredibly appealing is Chris Carney (PA-10) because of his moderate appeal and work on veterans issues.  He is not that progressive, but he is a Democrat and has shown an ability to get elected by Republicans (PA-10 is a solid Republican district).

Ultimately, a Democrat will win Philly, but should they be able to win Pittsburg (west) and the norhtern areas?

EDIT: Edited title to reflect true nature of article.

From the pen of the Mighty and Fearless Harry Reid (and Dick Durbin):

The Secretary of the Senate has determined that the new credentials presented today on behalf of Mr. Burris now satisfy Senate Rules and validate his appointment to the vacant Illinois Senate seat. In addition, as we requested, Mr. Burris has provided sworn testimony before the Illinois House Committee on Impeachment regarding the circumstances of his appointment.

“We have spoken to Mr. Burris to let him know that he is now the Senator-designate from Illinois and as such, will be accorded all the rights and privileges of a Senator-elect.

“Accordingly, barring objections from Senate Republicans, we expect Senator-designee Burris to be sworn in and formally seated later this week. We are working with him and the office of the Vice President to determine the date and time of the swearing-in.

The Hill:

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) is expected to announce he is running for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez’s (R-Fla.) seat on Tuesday morning, making him the first Democrat in the race.

Meek, a four-term congressman, has announced a 10 a.m. EST press conference in Miami, where Democratic sources with knowledge of his plans said he is set to announce he is entering the race.

I’m no big fan of Kendrick Meek, in no small part thanks to his non-support of our trio of Democratic challengers in South Florida this past fall, but thankfully I doubt that he’ll have a clear primary field to himself. State Sen. Dan Gelber will also announce a decision shortly, and Florida CFO Alex Sink is also weighing a run.

Open seat fans have no reason to fret — Meek’s 17th CD has an absurdly Democratic PVI of D+35.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/5-7, likely voters):

Roy Cooper (D): 43

Richard Burr (R-inc): 45

Richard Moore (D): 40

Richard Burr (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4%)

If you were to ask me, I’d point to Richard Burr as the Republicans’ most endangered incumbent Senator in 2010. He’s kind of a back-bench non-entity up for his first re-election, he made it into office in a strongly Republican year (2004) against an underwhelming opponent (Erskine Bowles), and North Carolina underwent a pretty dramatic blue shift in 2008, although that may dissipate a bit by 2010.

So it’s nice to have some polling data to support my intuition. Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s Attorney General who was just re-elected by a convincing margin, polls very well against Burr, losing by only two points. R2K also tests Richard Moore, the former Treasurer who lost the 2008 gubernatorial primary to then-Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, who doesn’t poll quite as well (perhaps he’s still tarnished from that acrimonious primary). However, six points back from an incumbent two years out is still a fairly good place to be, too.

Burr’s favorables are only 47 favorable/46 unfavorable, while Cooper’s are 41/21 and Moore is at 37/27, which looks especially nice for Cooper. While media speculation tends to focus on Cooper, it’s not entirely sure whether Cooper will get into the race, and there are a few other top-tier Dems seemingly mulling the race (Rep. Brad Miller comes to mind, as well as Rep. Heath Shuler). But this race easily looks to be a Tossup with Cooper in it (and probably even with Moore or Miller instead).

Today marks the first day of the 75th Legislative Assembly (the state celebrates its 150th birthday on Valentine’s Day) and so I thought it would be appropriate to preview the leadership on both sides of the aisle in the Oregon Legislature.  

FYI, “She flies with her own wings” is the official motto of the state of Oregon and so I thought it would be an appropriate title for this post.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Oregon State:

Officers:

Senate President-Peter Courtney (D)

District: 11-Salem.

First Elected to Senate: 1998.

First Elected President: 2003.

Birth Date: 06/18/1943

Birthplace: Philadelphia, PA

Summary: Peter Courtney is a dedicated progressive who has a long history of public service.  Elected to the state legislature for the first time in 1988, Courtney is regarded as a consensus-builder.  He was first elected to President in 2003 when the Senate was split 15-15.  In his prior life, he worked as a TV political commentator.

Caucus Leaders:

Majority Leader-Richard Devlin (D)

District: 19-Tualatin.

First Elected to Senate: 2002.

First Elected Party Leader: 2007.

Birth Date: 09/09/1952

Birthplace: Eugene, OR

Summary: Richard Devlin is renowned for his work in a number of areas, most notably child safety.  During the last legislative session he passed bills improving the state’s booster seat law as well as one banning the use of dangerous metal halide lights in public buildings, most notably public schools.  Prior to joining the legislature as a representative in 1996, he was a legal investigator for adult and juvenile corrections.

Minority Leader-Ted Ferrioli (R)

District: 30-John Day.

First Elected to Senate: 1996.

First Elected Party Leader: 2002.

Birth Date: 02/15/1951

Birthplace: Spokane, WA

Summary: One thing you can say about Ted Ferrioli is that at least he does not hide whom he is, an unapologetic advocate for timber interests in the state.  He believes that his most important recent work is that related to ensuring timber payments for rural OR (a very important issue that was a bipartisan push against the Bush administration) and is a strong advocate for lower taxes and less government.  He owns a small timber company and in 1986 formed Community Relations Associates to advocate for timber interests.

Oregon House:

Officers:

Speaker-Dave Hunt (D)

District: 40-Oregon City

First Elected to House: 2002.

First Elected Speaker: 2009.

Birth Date: 11/10/1967

Birthplace: Port Angeles, WA

Summary: Dave Hunt has long been a leader for progressive causes in Oregon, particularly those related to education, transportation and the environment.  His proudest legislative accomplishment last session was helping to create Oregon’s rainy day fund.  He also helped pass Connect Oregon III last session, which funded a variety of transportation projects related to rail, road, air and sea in order to improve passenger and freight mobility.  Outside of his work in the legislature, Hunt chairs the Columbia River Channel Commission and is an active member in his church.

Caucus Leaders:

Majority Leader-Mary Nolan (D)

District: 36-SW Portland

First Elected to House: 2000.

First Elected Party Leader: 2009.

Birth Date: 1954

Birthplace: Chicago, IL

Note: I worked for Rep. Nolan as a Legislative Assistant during the 2005 session.

Summary: Mary Nolan is without a doubt one of the most intelligent members of the Oregon Legislature.  A true progressive, Nolan has led the fight on a number of issues from abortion rights to GLBT rights to funding for education.  Nolan was the co-chair of the Ways and Means Committee (the state’s budget committee) in the 2007 session and is a leader for responsible for effective government.  Nolan is the former director of the City of Portland’s Environmental Services Department and currently owns and operates a number of businesses with her husband Mark Gardiner.

Minority Leader-Bruce Hanna (R)

District: 7-Roseburg

First Elected to House: 2004.

First Elected Party Leader: 2007.

Birth Date: 1960

Birthplace: Roseburg, OR

Summary: Bruce Hanna is your classic rural Oregon Republican, constantly fighting against measures which specifically benefit the city of Portland (which many rural Republicans consider evil).  For example, in a press statement released late in the 2007 session, Hanna cited funding for Portland Streetcars and the Portland-Milwaukee MAX (Light Rail) line as examples of “wasteful spending”.  His major issues include tax reduction and state police funding.  Hanna runs Automatic Vending Services and is the regional director for Coca-Cola in Southern OR.

Let me know what you think.

It’s been the world’s worst-kept secret for the last three days or so, but this morning George Voinovich made it official: he’s hanging it up in 2010, leaving behind an open seat in a swing state where the recent momentum has been with the Democrats.

In a statement from his office, Voinovich emphasized that he wanted to spend his final two years in the Senate focusing on legislating instead of campaigning.

“These next two years in office, for me, will be the most important years that I have served in my entire political career,” Voinovich said in a statement. “I must devote my full time, energy and focus to the job I was elected to do, the job in front of me, which seeking a third term – with the money-raising and campaigning that it would require – would not allow me to do.”

All eyes turn to the ensuing musical chairs now; Roll Call, like most outlets, posits ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman as the likeliest GOP candidate (although with no mention of John Kasich as a backup; instead it offers retread Mike DeWine and nutjob Ken Blackwell as other options). As always, we’ll keep you posted as hats get thrown into the ring.

UPDATE: Well, that was fast. Politico‘s Scorecard is already reporting that Rob Portman is getting in the race and will announce his candidacy shortly. Let’s see if that has the effect of clearing the field.

UPDATE, part deux: On the Democratic side, Politico is now reporting that Rep. Tim Ryan is making loud public noises about “certainly consider”ing the Senate race, while Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher’s surrogates are saying that he is “leaning against running.” I wonder if we could have both fields cleared within the next few days?