Swing State Project

Vote was 114-1.  On to the Illinois State Senate this goes.

In case anyone was wondering this is the one guy who voted against:

Rep. Milt Patterson (D-Chicago)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITI…

CHICAGO, Illinois (CNN) — The Illinois House of Representatives on Friday voted almost unanimously to impeach embattled Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

The vote was 114-1, with three representatives not voting.

The matter now moves to the state Senate, which will try the case and decide whether to remove Blagojevich from office.

On Thursday, an Illinois legislative committee unanimously recommended impeaching Blagojevich amid corruption allegations.

Blagojevich was arrested last month after federal prosecutors alleged, among other things, that he tried to sell the U.S. Senate seat that President-elect Barack Obama vacated.

“Today is the day that we begin to give back democracy to the people of the state of Illinois,” Democratic Rep. Jack Franks, a panel member, said as he cast his aye vote Thursday night.

Blagojevich “has been AWOL and derelict of his duties. He has abused his powers, and he has brought shame to this great state,” Franks said.

“I believe that Rod Blagojevich is a liar, and I believe he is a thief,” Franks said. “He has stolen the trust of the people.”

The committee heard testimony Thursday afternoon from Roland Burris, the man Blagojevich appointed to succeed Obama in the Senate.

Burris denied any quid pro quo with Blagojevich for his appointment to the Senate. Burris, former attorney general for Illinois, is not accused of engaging in “pay-to-play” politics with Blagojevich.

Blagojevich denies any wrongdoing and has rejected calls for his resignation.

“I would have appreciated it if he had stepped aside, and we would not have been made the laughingstock of the country,” said Rep. Mary Flowers, another Democrat. She noted, however, that the governor is “innocent until proven guilty.”

The 21-member committee looked into Blagojevich’s actions on a number of issues beyond the federal allegations, including an allegation he withheld state money from a children’s hospital until he received a $50,000 campaign donation.

Rep. Chapin Rose, a Republican, called the alleged behavior “repugnant.”

“The report speaks for itself and contains many, many, many acts that I find, and most of my colleagues find, to be impeachable,” Rose said.

“The evidence is overwhelmingly damning,” he said.

U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald initiated a criminal complaint against Blagojevich after listening to wiretaps of the governor’s phone conversations.

Blagojevich was arrested December 9 but has not been indicted. A federal judge in Chicago told Fitzgerald he has until April 7 to decide whether to charge the Illinois governor.

The committee’s report said it found the government’s allegations against Blagojevich “shocking” and believes the information in the federal complaint “is sufficiently credible to demonstrate an abuse of office” that was “inconsistent with the governor’s constitutional oath.”

The Illinois committee’s report points out that Blagojevich does not need to be found guilty of a crime for the House to impeach him. “It would, in fact, be unreasonable to limit impeachable offenses to criminal conduct,” the report says.

“An impeachment inquiry is not a criminal proceeding and its purpose is not punitive. Rather, impeachment is a remedial proceeding to protect the public from an officer who has abused his position of trust.”

The committee pointed out that the criminal complaint against Blagojevich alleges he was secretly taped saying he would not appoint anyone to Obama’s seat without some form of compensation. iReport.com: Do you trust your political leaders?

“The governor repeatedly demonstrated that his decision to appoint a senator would not be based on merits of the candidate or on public policy, but rather on how that appointment could benefit him personally,” the report said.

“The governor directed various individuals to conduct inquiries on his behalf to negotiate deals for the Senate appointment, affirmatively setting into action a plot to trade the Senate appointment for something of value to the governor,” it said.

Blagojevich declined the committee’s offer to testify on his own behalf, the report said.

The toughest hold? Democrat Dave Freudenthal is term-limited out of the Governor’s office in Wyoming after the 2010 elections, and Republicans will be licking their chops to run for the open seat. For our sakes, hopefully that means a bloody and contentious primary, but that’s only good for us if we have a strong candidate in place to take advantage of the aftermath. Gary Trauner, coming off two losses in a row, could give the Governor’s race a go, but there might be some less obvious choices worth looking at further down the totem pole. What have we got?

Lets go through the rough on these two polls then hit some analysis on why there are such grandure contradictions between them.  

PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

January 3-4: Margin of Error 3.7%

Caroline Kennedy (D) – 46%

Peter King (R) – 44%

Undecided – 10%

Caroline Kennedy’s Favorability Ratings:

Favorable – 44%

Unfavorable – 40%

Not Sure – 16%

Peter King’s Favorability Ratings:

Favorable – 34%

Unfavorable – 26%

Not Sure – 40%

Party Breakdown for the Kennedy/King Head to Head:

Kennedy:

Democrats – 65%

Republicans – 19%

Other – 35%

King:

Democrats – 25%

Republicans – 74%

Other – 50%

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Caroline Kennedy (D) – 51%

Peter King (R) – 33%

Third Party – 9%

Not Sure – 7%

Why the staunch contrast in the head to head matchup?  Favorability Ratings.  

Caroline Kennedy’s Favorability Ratings:

Favorable – 63%

Unfavorable – 31%

Not Sure – 6%

Peter King’s Favorability Ratings:

Favorable – 39%

Unfavorable – 27%

Not Sure – 34%

Party Breakdown for the Kennedy/King Head to Head:

In the match-up with King, Kennedy gets support from 74% of Democrats and holds a 12-point lead among unaffiliated voters. King is supported by 73% of Republicans.

Now, between these two polls I’m leaning toward Rasmussen.  Why?  She split Republicans and Democrats more evenly in that poll, which is realistic because most elections split 90-10 or 85-15 in partisan support.  The wild card is the other category.  There is a 27 point difference between PPP and Rasmussen and how Kennedy and King split the other vote.  

King’s approval ratings and support among Republicans is consistent and crosses over between the two polls.  I just don’t see Kennedy’s approvals being closer to 44/40 than 63/31.  

I have to go to sleep, I may add more tomorrow after work.  Please share thoughts on why there is such a sharp contrast between polls in certain areas and similar findings in others, or which poll is more accurate and why.  

Roll Call:

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), who won a third term in November in a race that was closer than many Republicans would have liked, is expected to create an exploratory committee for a possible run for state attorney general in 2010, two Texas media outlets reported Thursday evening.

The current attorney general, Greg Abbott (R), is contemplating running for lieutenant governor next year – or for Senate if Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) resigns early to pursue a gubernatorial bid.

This might be the most exciting House open seat news so far this cycle. McCaul won with just 54% of the vote in November, and 55% two years earlier. This district always looked more competitive than its (old) PVI of R+13, in large part due to an ongoing demographic sea change – in particular, Hispanic growth here has been through the roof.

I’d also be willing to bet that Bush’s numbers were inflated here due to a home state effect – and that Obama did better than Kerry’s 38%. The real question is whether there is something “wrong” with McCaul that’s kept his numbers down – and, consequently, would we be better off running against him or with an open seat? I’ll note that the DCCC didn’t spend a dime on this district, but first-time candidate Larry Joe Doherty did raise an impressive $1.2 million in his losing bid.

If McCaul bails, Doherty could conceivably run again, as could international affairs consultant Dan Grant, who ran in the primary against Doherty in 2008. My question to you: Are there any other strong candidate who might be tempted to run if there’s an open seat?

Matt Lewis sez so:

… In other news, I am hearing rumors coming out of Ohio that Senator Voinovich is seriously considering making an announcement next week that he won’t be running for re-election. According to my sources, Rob Portman would likely be the Republican to replace him. This also opens up the GOP gubernatorial nomination for former Republican Congressman John Kasich.

Hoo-boy. A Voinovich retirement would make four in the Senate GOP’s ranks (Brownback, Martinez, and Bond being the first to go), and would surely turn into a top-tier tossup race, with Democrats Lee Fisher (Ohio’s Lt. Governor) and Rep. Tim Ryan being two of the most likely primary contenders. I have to wonder, though: would it have been better for either of these guys to run against Voino rather than a magically unblemished Rob Portman? Discuss.

(Mad props to Populista for the catch.)

Update: Voiny’s office confirms what we already know:

Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) is considering retirement, but his office confirmed he has not yet made a final decision about what he will do in 2010.

“For over 40 years, Sen. Voinovich has demonstrated a passion for public service,” said Chris Paulitz, a senior adviser to Voinovich. “He is thinking about the challenging situation in his beloved Buckeye State and the direction of the country, as well as what is best for his family. If he changes his mind about running, he will share that decision quickly with the people of Ohio – people he considers his second family.”

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/5-7, likely voters):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

First, here’s the bad news: Barbara Boxer is under the 50% mark that represents relative safety for an incumbent. The rest of the story is pretty good: that’s against Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is the best-known and probably most popular Republican in California, a guy who many people have feared would convincingly defeat Boxer or at least turn this expensive blue-state seat into a top-tier tossup.

And that presumes that Schwarzenegger even runs, which may not be likely at this point, as his popularity (which enjoyed a resurgence just in time for his re-election in 2006) seems to be waning again. The same sample gives him 42/51 favorable/unfavorable ratings (note that almost everyone in the state has an opinion, meaning he’d have to start changing minds instead of just winning over undecideds).

Californians aren’t that red-hot about Boxer either (she has a lukewarm 48/46 favorable/unfavorable). But if Arnold says ‘hasta la vista’ to electoral politics, with the other potentially strong statewide California Republicans (Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman) eyeing the governor’s seat, and with probably none of the GOP House members willing to give up their safe seats on a fool’s errand, it’s possible she might only draw second- (or third-) tier opposition again.

ARG (12/27-29, registered voters):

Paul Hodes (D): 40

Judd Gregg (R-inc): 47

Undecided: 13

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 35

Judd Gregg (R-inc): 54

Undecided: 11

(n=569)

ARG! takes a first look at the prospective matchups in the 2010 New Hampshire Senate race. No one has declared yet, although both of NH’s Democratic representatives have expressed some interest, and it’s not even certain whether Gregg plans to run for re-election, considering that he’s likely to race his first tough race in, well, forever.

Of the two representatives, Paul Hodes fares much better, coming within 7 points of Gregg, which is a pretty good place to be, two years out from taking on an entrenched incumbent. Carol Shea-Porter, who had a shakier 2008 re-election than Hodes, falls short by a somewhat wider margin. Although Hodes and Shea-Porter are the Dems getting the lion’s share of attention right now, it might be interesting to see a poll matchup between Gregg and popular Democratic Governor John Lynch; while Lynch seems comfortable in Concord and doesn’t seem likely to run, maybe he’d change his tune if he saw polls giving him an edge.

Benji Smith:

Two Republican operatives close to former Sen. Jim Talent say he is likely to run for the Missouri Senate seat of retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.).

One Republican operative close to Talent said that he has been “itching to run” since losing to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) in 2006, and is eager to make a political comeback.

Interesting. I’d love to see this loser get his ass handed to him for the second time. On the Democratic side of the bench, Smith writes that Robin Carnahan seems like a solid bet to run:

On the Democratic side, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, daughter of the late Sen. Mel Carnahan, will likely be the nominee. One Democratic operative said she has already been preparing for a Senate campaign – even before Bond announced his retirement.

Carnahan won more than 1.74 million votes statewide in 2008 – more than any other statewide Democratic candidate in Missouri history.

I have to wonder if a Robin Carnahan candidacy would clear the Democratic field of all serious comers. At this point, I suspect it would.

Update: The National Review hears buzz that GOP Rep. Roy Blunt is also interested in the race.

Cross posted from KansasJackass.com

With the news Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson will not be running for Governor of Kansas in 2010, all of the political hacks of the state looked at each other and said, “OK, if not Parkinson, who’s going to run as the Democratic nominee?”

Speculation fell immediately at the feet of former Minority Leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and current state Treasurer Dennis McKinney.

While McKinney does seem to fit the bill as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, let’s assume for a moment he decides to run for the office he now holds, state treasurer, in 2010, rather than launching a run for Governor. Who else might the Democrats nominate?

The Kansas Republican Party Executive Director Christian Morgan said dismissively:

Who do they have that’s going to step up?” said Christian Morgan, the Kansas GOP’s executive director. “I think they have an incredibly short bench.”

It’s not the length of your bench that matters, Chris- it’s how you use it.  One would have thought you’d know that as well as anyone.

It’s true we don’t have the problem the Republicans have- that so many of our elected officials think they’re good enough, smart enough, and that, doggone it, people like them that the Republicans always end up with primaries that involve knees to the groin and pulled hair, the Kansas Democratic Party has talent that has governed efficiently at every level- the hallmark of a person who could lead our state.  Household names they might not all be, but we’re guessing “Sandy Praeger” wasn’t, either, before she was elected Insurance Commissioner.

On my short list of potential Democratic candidates for Governor, we have two mayors:  Joe Reardon of the KCK-Wyandotte County Consolidated Government and Carl Brewer of Wichita.  Hailing from the largest population centers of the state & the economic engines thereof, these two men are already executives with many of the same responsibilities as found in the governor’s office, just on a smaller scale.  Actually crafting a budget and implementing policies that effect the economy in very direct ways are both things Senator Sam Brownback can’t claim he’s ever done, and would make both men excellent candidates for Governor.

Jill Docking is always mentioned as a potential candidate for statewide office because she came so dang close to trouncing Brownback when he first ran for the United States Senate in 1996.  While she hasn’t sought elective office since that bid more than a decade ago, Docking has stayed active in politics and currently sits on the Kansas Board of Regents- so she has first hand knowledge of the budget disaster the state faces- again, something Senator Sammy just doesn’t have.

Securities Commissioner Chris Biggs might decide to make a run at the Governor’s mansion- he’s another person, like Docking, who has run statewide and only lost very narrowly.

Either of the big-name District Attorneys in Kansas would be excellent candidates- Nola Foulston from Wichita or Charles Branson from Lawrence.  A little dash of hard and fast law-and-order can’t hurt.  And, again, you’ve got that whole administrative experience thing that comes in awfully handy.  It’s also encouraging both of them just got re-elected in landslides.

Congressman Dennis Moore could certainly, certainly run and win- but he’s already told us he’s running for re-election, so we’re pretending he’s not available right now. Same goes for Attorney General Steve Six– he’d better be running for his spot in ’10.

State Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, former Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, State Senator Laura Kelly or Kansas Democratic Party Chairman Larry Gates could certainly all raise the money necessary to make a competitive bid, as could State Senator Janis Lee or former State Senator Christine Downey.

Ready for some real wild cards?  How about Secretary of Social and Rehabilitation Services Don Jordan or Secretary of Agriculture Adrian Polansky, or Roger Werholtz from the Department of Corrections?  Before you laugh those folk off the playing field, remember what Sam Browback was before he ran for Congress….yes, that’s right, just a lowly Secretary of Agriculture.

So, there, a bench.  It’s obvious some of those folk are more likely than others to even consider a run, but each one of them could run for Governor and win the seat against Brownback or Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh or Insurance Commissioner Praeger or whoever else might decide to jump in on the Republican side.

What’s our power ranking?  McKinney’s out front, followed by Mayors Reardon and Brewer with Docking, Biggs, and the DA’s next.  That is about as tenuous a “ranking” as there as even been, seeing as none of the people involved have even said they might be interested in running.

Just remember this:  2010 is still a long way off, friends.

Big news out of the Show Me State: Christopher “Kit” Bond, senator since 1986, will not be running for re-election in 2010. This contradicts Bond’s statements of even several months ago that he would seek a fifth term.

Previous polls had indicated this would be a competitive race even with Bond running for re-election (R2K recently saw only a 4-point edge for Bond against Secretary of State Robin Carnahan). But with an open seat… and with a whole bench full of Carnahans on our side and rather middling pickins on the GOP side… this suddenly moves up next to Florida on the 2010 senate watch list.

We recently discussed possible candidates in the Missouri recruitment thread. (bpfish‘s comment in that diary is pretty comprehensive, and definitely merits a read.) On the Dem side, as previously mentioned, Robin Carnahan probably tops most people’s lists, but her brother, Rep. Russ Carnahan, could just as easily be the one. (The other Dem representatives are Lacy Clay and Emanuel Cleaver, African-Americans representing urban districts who are unlikely to make the jump to statewide, and Ike Skelton, who is in his 70s and unlikely to give up his Armed Services gavel.) Other possibilities include Auditor Susan Montee, and ex-state rep. Judy Baker, who just narrowly lost the House race in the conservative 9th District.

Tons of possibilities on the GOP side, starting with former governor Matt Blunt, who’s young but may need more time than that to rehabilitate his image from his unsuccessful gubernatorial term. Representatives Sam Graves (who won convincingly in a should-have-been-competitive race), Jo Ann Emerson, and Todd Akin may all be eyeing the race. (The other GOP reps are Blaine Luetkemeyer, who’s brand new, and Roy Blunt, who seems to be looking for an exit strategy.)

Ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who lost the gubernatorial primary, may also be a possibility, as may be ex-Rep. Kenny Hulshof, although he may have lost the governor’s race by too large a margin to be taken seriously any more. More remote possibilities include former senators Jim Talent and John Ashcroft (yes, John Ashcroft) coming back for another bite at the apple. Last but not least… don’t rule out Brock Olivo. The 9th District was just too small a stage for a mind as expansive as his. (Discussion already underway in txobserver‘s diary.)