Illinois 10th Congressional District Democratic candidate Dan Seals and communications director Elisabeth Smith pose with SSP’s favorite babka.
P.S. – Have you donated to Jim Martin yet?
Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/6-8, likely voters):
Bob Lord (D): 45
John Shadegg (R-inc): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Hot damn. Bob Lord and the DCCC have been pummeling Shadegg over the airwaves in recent weeks (just check out their latest ad), while Shadegg has mostly been yawning his way through the past month. A recent Roll Call article suggests that Shadegg has been caught completely off-guard, and is struggling to adjust.
Daily Kos will also be releasing a poll of this race soon, so I’m looking forward to seeing what their numbers tell us.
A new Insider Advantage poll came hot off the presses and has the Georgia Senate race all tied up at 45%% each.
In the latest InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position poll, Democratic challenger Jim Martin has pulled to a tie with U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss in the U.S. Senate race in Georgia. In other polling, the Georgia presidential race has tightened substantially, and Barack Obama leads in Ohio.
These major changes — especially Chambliss’ dramatic tumble from safe frontrunner — reflect the turbulent nature of the electorate, as well as the economy, in the weeks leading to the election.
IA does not have the best reputation in the world, but it is in line with other polls. Now where is the DSCC?
Many times over the past few months, we’ve been asked if and when we’d fundraise for another candidate. We’ve said all along that we’d hold our fire unless and until we saw a very special opportunity emerge. That time is now.
Over the past two cycles, SSP has only endorsed three candidates: Jon Tester and Paul Hackett in 2005 and Travis Childers earlier this year in his groundbreaking Mississippi special election race. Today, we add a fourth: Georgia Senate candidate Jim Martin, who is waging an uphill but increasingly competitive battle against the repugnant GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss.
As with Childers, we were the first prognosticator to give this race a highly competitive rating, and the polls have shown this contest dramatically tightening in recent weeks. We would never ask our readers to donate to a candidate unless we truly believed that we stood a fighting chance of winning — and I believe that Jim Martin is within striking distance.
As Markos writes, Jim Martin is a progressive candidate across the board — a veteran state legislator, a sharp consumer advocate and friend of labor, and a thoroughly committed Democrat. You couldn’t ask for a better trade than replacing Saxby Chambliss, a man who slandered triple-amputee Max Cleland in his 2002 Senate race, with Jim Martin.
We’re not predicting a Martin win. But we are saying that this is a crucial opportunity, and Martin needs every last dollar he can get. While we would all love for the DSCC to flood Georgia with ads and resources, it’s time to put our money where our mouths are. If we expect Chuck Schumer to step up, we should be prepared to do the same.
Our goal? The same as in April: $2300 for Martin. In other words, that’s the equivalent of one “maxed out” big dollar donation.
Together, we can do this. So please support Jim Martin today with whatever you can manage.
Cooper & Secrest for Mike Montagano (10/6-7, likely voters, 9/9-10 and April in parens):
Mike Montagano (D): 39 (37, 28)
Mark Souder (R-inc): 44 (50, 55)
William Larsen (L): 4
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Those are some very exciting numbers for Democrat Mike Montagano, who is running an excellent race against do-nothing GOP congressman Mark Souder. Remember, this is an R+16 district in the corner of Northeast Indiana — a district that Bush carried by 37 points in 2004, but also one that Souder won by a pathetic 54-46 margin in 2006.
Here’s the best nugget of the poll: Among those who have seen Montagano’s ads, he leads Souder by 53-32. If he can continue to get his message out, he has a fighting chance in this deep red district.
Anzalone Liszt for Bobby Bright (10/5-7, likely voters, 8/3-6 in parens):
Bobby Bright (D): 46 (50)
Jay Love (R): 45 (40)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Bright leads among Independents (51-37), and has a higher favorable rating than Love (58-27 compared to Love’s 50-33), but the race has definitely tightened — thanks to Freedom’s Crotch and the NRCC doubling down, no doubt. However, Anzalone also finds that, by a 2:1 margin, voters say their opinion of Bright has become more favorable over the past two weeks, with the mirror opposite true for Love.
There’s one important piece of information to note — Anzalone uses a 25% African-American sample in their polling, which they consider a “conservative” estimate of the black vote (the district’s African-American registration is around 28%). The DCCC is on the ground in AL-02 right now, paying for field staff to help get out as many votes as possible for Bright. This one could be close.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
It’s pretty clear who Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden supports in the Oregon Senate race between Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Gordon Smith. Afterall, Wyden recently cut an ad making a passionate endorsement of Merkley despite his friendship with Smith. So what does El Gordo do? He parses together some misleading clips of Wyden talking about their good working relationship and then has the gall to stamp Ron Wyden’s own signature onto his ad — as if it were an endorsement from the man himself!
Just compare the two ads:
I’ve gotta say, that may be one of the most shameless ads I’ve seen all cycle from anybody. Wyden should ask El Gordo to pull this ad off the air.
Global Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/5-7):
Judy Baker (D): 40
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R): 36
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Two recent polls — one by SurveyUSA in early September and another by Research 2000 in mid-September showed Baker trailing Luetkemeyer by 12 and 9 points, respectively, but that was before the shit really hit the economic fan, and also before the DCCC started hitting the airwaves with ads highlighting Luetkemeyer’s support for Social Security privatization (the bad kind of “SSP”). I’d wait for a few more polls before accepting these numbers as gospel, though.
Here’s a recent mailer sent out by the campaign of disingenuous, unaccomplished GOP Rep. Lee Terry:
You might recall Lee Terry’s almost-endorsement of Barack Obama earlier this year, when he said that his district was seeing a wave of “Obama-Terry voters”, whom he described as “people who want the right kind of change.”
Keep in mind that this is an R+9 district — although one that the Obama campaign is continuing to target and one where the DCCC has booked $435K worth of ad time. If Esch wins here, we’re talking about a big-time wave — it might still be unlikely, but it’s not nearly as far-fetched as it was a couple weeks ago.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/5-7, likely voters):
Darcy Burner (D): 41
Dave Reichert (R): 49
(MoE: ±5%)
Lake Research Partners for Darcy Burner America’s Voice (9/23-25, likely voters):
Darcy Burner (D): 45
Dave Reichert (R): 48
(MoE: ±5.2%)
After losing to Dave Reichert by only a few points in the 2006 election, there were high hopes for Darcy Burner’s 2008 rematch. She led Reichert in fundraising through the cycle, and with Obama a particularly well-suited candidate for generating coattails in the affluent, suburban Eighth District, she seemed well-positioned to finish the job this year.
However, while the last few weeks have seen a few other re-match contestants (Eric Massa, Larry Kissell, Dan Seals) in swing districts moving into commanding positions, Burner seems to be remaining in the same position she was in before the financial crisis and corresponding Democratic surge: down in the mid-single digits. (Over the summer, she was down from 6 to 10 in three SurveyUSA polls, and most importantly, she was down about 4 against Reichert in the Top 2 primary.)
Research 2000 finds Burner down by 8. The internal presents a somewhat better picture for her: down by 3 in a straight head-to-head, but up by 9 (50-41) when voters are informed about the candidates’ positions. Over summer, such an internal poll might be heartening, but with four weeks left till the election, it doesn’t fill us with much confidence.
Several other factors also bode ill: we’re in the middle of a large (more than $400,000 combined) pro-Reichert ad buy by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and National Federation of Independent Business, which blunts Burner’s financial advantage. And today the Seattle Post-Intelligencer endorsed Reichert, touting his perceived moderation (they’re the more liberal of Seattle’s two papers; they have already endorsed Obama this year, and endorsed Burner in 2006). With that in mind, we’re downgrading WA-08 to “Lean Republican,” although we consider this as being on the cusp of “Toss-up,” and a strong showing the next SurveyUSA poll could put her right back in the thick of things.
Possible theories on why Burner is lagging include:
The internal polling memo is over the flip…
UPDATE (by James L.): It turns out this poll was not an internal poll for Burner, but rather one commissioned by America’s Voice.