Swing State Project

September 25, 2008:

Unfair, you say? Voters shouldn’t judge a candidate by his skin color. Maybe, but is it any more unfair than, for example, saying that because McCain and President Bush are both Republicans that a McCain administration would produce a third Bush term? No, it isn’t.

Rasmussen (9/23, likely voters, 9/18 in parentheses)

Kay Hagan (D): 48 (51)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I try not to single out particular pollsters for ridicule, but Rasmussen has had one mixed-up crazy week. Nevertheless, their newest poll of the North Carolina Senate race is very much in line with their poll last week of the same race, and other pollsters as well: Hagan is showing a small but sustained lead. Somewhat miraculously, both candidates have favorable ratings over 50%: Dole at 52% and Hagan at 51%.

This is the same sample that gave Obama a 49-47 lead. Obama’s organizing and advertising push in North Carolina seems to be paying off not just for him (as NC is starting to move into undeniable swing-state territory) but downticket as well.

Cross posted at Blue Jersey.

Dear Rep. Smith:

It’s been over a month since I first invited you to join me in a series of public debates or forums so that we can provide the voters in New Jersey’s Fourth Congressional District an opportunity to weigh their electoral options.  

Over the past six weeks my campaign has placed phone calls to your office and issued public statements inviting you to debate.  As a show of good will, I also sent a personal letter to your attention, along with a copy of Allen Guelzo’s fine new book on the Lincoln-Douglas debates of 1858.  Disappointingly, we have received no response from you or your staff.  

Among your colleagues, you stand out for your consistent refusal to debate your opponents.  Barack Obama and John McCain are debating each other on Friday.  Sarah Palin and Joe Biden are scheduled to debate next month.  Frank Lautenberg and Dick Zimmer will soon debate (and, along those lines, Rob Andrews and Frank Lautenberg debated last spring).  John Adler and Chris Myers have debated twice, and Linda Stender and Leonard Lance have already debated each other once. But you have not publicly debated an opponent in almost twenty years.  Your refusal to engage in the electoral process suggests a fundamental disrespect for the citizens of Central Jersey, who deserve much more from their candidates.

As you know, our economy is in a deep crisis. This week in Congress, you are weighing the merits of the $700 billion bailout proposed by the Bush Administration. Once Congress recesses over the next few days, we should honor the voters of the Fourth Congressional District with a vibrant debate on the future of our country.  Now more than ever, it is crucial that the voters know where their candidates stand on the issues facing our nation.  The stakes are simply too high for continued debate-dodging.

I have reserved space and time at the public libraries in Brick and Hamilton. I originally planned to use these venues to stage town-hall meetings to discuss our troubled economy. But given the seriousness of the issues facing our country, I would like to invite you to hold joint appearances at both locations. Of course, we would agree to turn the program over to an impartial, third-party group.  My campaign has already been contacted by Veterans4Education, a nonpartisan group of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans currently studying at New Jersey colleges and universities.  They sponsored a fine debate in the 3rd District and have invited us to participate in a similar forum.  With your agreement, I would invite Veterans4Education to assume responsibility for one of our joint appearances.  If any group deserves to press its candidates on the issues, it is Veterans4Education.  I hope you will join me in showing them the respect they have earned in service of our country.

We have reserved the following dates and venues:

Brick Branch Library: October 9th, 6PM

Hamilton Public Library October 23rd, 7PM

If these dates do not fit into your schedule, I am happy to accommodate your calendar.

It should be noted neither of these libraries is sponsoring a debate. Rater, they have offered to provide free meeting space.  

Sincerely,

Joshua Zeitz  

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (9/17-21, likely voters)

Mark Begich (D): 47

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 43

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 47

Don Young (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Fairleigh Dickinson has decided to expand its operations from New Jersey… to Alaska? Well, at any rate, it’s at an opportune time, as they join the pack of pollsters seeing tightening races in Alaska in the post-Palin environment (and as the initial shock of Uncle Ted’s indictment fades). In fact, these numbers quite closely resemble those announced by Ivan Moore earlier today (Begich up 48-46, Berkowitz up 49-44).

Ominously for the incumbents, Stevens pulls down only 67% support from Republicans, and Young is supported by only 50% of Republicans. Both races are also built on glaring gender gaps: for instance, Young is up by 10 among men, while Berkowitz is up by 22 among women.

Myers Research & Strategic Services for Mark Schauer (9/23-24, likely voters, 5/8-15 in parens):

Mark Schauer (D): 42 (37)

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 36 (40)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Schauer posts another lead over Walberg, whose job approval rating (34-46) is still in the dumps. Looks like the money spent by Patriot Majority and the DCCC here has had some effect.

The full polling memo is available below the fold. SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 48 (46)

John Sununu (R-inc): 44 (42)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

The University of New Hampshire is back with new polls, and they show a continuation of Shaheen’s four-point lead from July. The July poll was considered a bit out-of-whack at the time, but this week’s poll seems more in line with overall polling trends: still a consistent Shaheen lead (with the exception of that recent wacky Rasmussen poll), but now within the margin of error instead of out in double-digit land. Encouragingly, Sununu’s favorables are dropping, down to 44% from over 50 in July. The same sample gives McCain a 47-45 lead.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 42 (40)

Jeb Bradley (R): 45 (46)

Undecided 12 (14)

(MoE: ±6.2%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 38 (43)

Jennifer Horn (R): 26 (23)

Undecided 33 (32)

(MoE: ±6.0%)

UNH also takes a look at the two Congressional races in New Hampshire. Carol Shea-Porter continues to trail Jeb Bradley (now by 3) in the rematch of their 2006 race in NH-01. The gap has closed a bit from last time, probably as Jeb Bradley emerges from an acrimonious primary covered in mud. Shea-Porter has only a 44% favorable rating (up significantly from the previous sample), but Bradley is even worse at 36% favorable, down from nearly 50 last time, which indicates that his primary battle with John Stephen may have mortally wounded him. Shea-Porter maintains a financial edge and can count on DCCC help, but this still looks to be a close race come November.

The other freshman representative, Paul Hodes, is in much better shape in the more Dem-leaning NH-02, giving Hodes the tie-breaker in the battle of dueling internals we saw earlier this week. Hodes is up by 12, although note the huge number of undecideds in this race (which has only grown since the GOP primary was resolved).

Playing “spot the methodological weaknesses in the UNH poll” has become a favorite netroots pastime, and there are a few things to point out: each of the Congressional samples is only half of the statewide sample, leaving them with sample sizes of only 252 and 271, and enormous 6% MoEs. In addition, these samples seem especially heavy on the Republicans (although New Hampshire may be one state where old school New England Republicans retain their registration even as they increasingly vote Democratic as the national GOP devolves into Theocon Central). This is especially glaring in the 2nd District, where the sample includes 60 Democrats and 91 Republicans (50% more).

Bennett, Petts, & Normington for Glenn Nye (9/21-22, likely voters, 5/6-8 in parens):

Glenn Nye (D): 40 (32)

Thelma Drake (R-inc): 45 (48)

Undecided: 15 (20)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Very nice trend for Glenn Nye the candidate guy. After airing some bio ads, Nye’s name recognition has shot up to 49% — more than five times higher than it was in May, but also showing some major room to grow.

Drake’s been firing blanks at Nye in recent days over a D.C. residence that he maintained with his brother while serving as a foreign service officer in Iraq. In Drake’s view, Nye’s been “gaming” the D.C. tax system for a discount. The Virginian-Pilot tears Drake to shreds for this attack:

Here’s the problem with that charge: Nye owns the house with his brother, who has lived there except while the State Department employed him in Iraq to work on reconstruction and job creation. Nye himself was also in Baghdad – creating a jobs program for Iraqis – during the period that Drake’s campaign argues he was cheating the D.C. government.

In other words, Drake is criticizing the Nye brothers for claiming as a primary residence the house they left behind while serving their country in a war zone. What the Nyes did will sound very familiar to the heavily military voters of the 2nd District.

It’s no wonder that Drake has a net negative job rating (45-47) and that her favorables are only at 42%.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican. The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Ivan Moore Research (9/20-22, likely voters, 8/30-9/2 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 48 (49)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (46)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

And here’s the House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49 (54)

Don Young (R-inc): 44 (37)

In other words: these races are far from over. Ivan Moore offers some candid thoughts on why neither Begich or Berkowitz have been able to put their races away:

My thinking is that Begich stayed too long on his cutesy advertising message: He started off in the car wash talking about minimum wage and congressional pay increases, then segued to a charming No Child Left Behind ad featuring his son Jacob. Nice ads, both of them, but the feel is wrong. They don’t set him up as being strong, decisive and dominant, they don’t give him weight and gravitas, they don’t establish him in effective contrast to Stevens, and I think therein lies the fall in numbers. All this while Ted’s growling about how he’s never going to get taken alive.

Begich needs something strong, something that portrays him as someone who can go to DC and kick ass. He needs to rely less on attack ads from the DSCC, which I don’t think are doing him any good, and more on convincing people that he’s got the balls to do this job.

I’m inclined to agree with his note on the DSCC’s ads being counter-productive in this race. Look, you won’t find a bigger booster of the party committees in the blogosphere than us, but the DSCC injecting itself into this contest allows Ted Stevens to frame the race around “enemies of Alaska” trying to “take him down”. This stuff does not play well in Alaska. Just ask the Club For Growth, who learned their lesson the hard way.

And here’s Moore on Berkowitz:

Berkowitz, on the other hand, has a problem. In the last two months, his positive hasn’t moved anywhere and his negative’s gone up nearly ten points. That despite a bunch of pre-primary advertising and a solid win in the primary. He needs to catch fire and he’s not going about it the right way to make it happen. So far, we’ve seen him doing the walking and talking thing on his ads, and having a little love-in on his deck with people hanging on his every word. But for goodness sakes, he’s running against Don Young! Where’s the feistiness, where’s the strength, where’s the toughness, where’s the courage that he had in Juneau to stand up to the powerbrokers and the lobbyists and the corruption? It hasn’t appeared yet, and as a result, the race has narrowed to just five points.

Berkowitz and Begich both have the same problem. Both these races set up perceptually as contests between a couple of intellectual, wishy-washy, weak-kneed, liberal Ds (and that’s not me talking, I’m channeling voter thoughts out there) and a couple of tough, grizzled, possibly corrupt but otherwise experienced old warhorses who know how to get the job done. It’s incumbent on the Ds to show that the perception of them is false, and that they can stand toe-to-toe with Stevens and Young. But time is running out.

Food for thought.

UPDATE: Sarah Palin just declined to endorse Ted Stevens. That can’t help.

The DSCC’s latest ads in Oregon go for the jugular: Gordon Smith’s support for Social Security privatization (not the kind of “SSP” that we can believe in):

And:

The GOP’s ill-advised schemes to gamble away Social Security are now coming home to roost in a major way. Hope you enjoy it, El Gordo!