Swing State Project

The following is my analysis of the latest numbers put out by Survey USA.  I am choosing to analyze this both because I want to explain to folks what is going on but also because SUSA does provide crosstabs, making analysis easier.  This is NOT just another poll diary.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Full SurveyUSA Poll is available at this link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2587d5be-1ce6-48a3-ad0d-3245a66a7a00.

General Comments:

This poll is fairly believable for the most part.  The sampling looks good, although some of the cross-tabs are a little weird (like McBush winning among Hispanics).  Still, they slightly oversampled Rs, and Ds to a lesser extent, giving Ds only a 7% reg. edge, when the real edge is around 9%.  I’m not quite sure what they consider to be the “Portland Region” but even that makes sense.  Some of the other demographic trends also suggest a fairly good sample, such as the percentage of regular churchgoers, which is within the accepted range of 30-35% (OR is the least churchgoing state in the US).

President:

Top Line (August Numbers in Parenthesis):

Obama-52% (48%).

McCain-41% (45%).

Obama strengths: Obama wins among men and women, but of course much more substantially among the later.  Obama wins among independents by 14%.  Obama also wins among those who say that anything besides terrorism or immigration are the most important issue (which only adds up to 13% of voters).  The most notable spread, however, is that, among the 65% of Oregonians who support alternatives to drilling, Obama wins 70-24%.

McCain strengths:  Strength is a relative term in this case but McCain is doing okay outside of Portland, only losing by 5% versus 15% inside Portland.  He is doing well among those who like Bush, which, and I am proud of Oregon for this, only includes 24% of voters.  There are no Palin approval numbers, so it is hard to tell directly what impact she has had.

What it means: Obama is well positioned to take Oregon fairly easily.

US Senate:

Top Line (August Numbers in Parenthesis):

Merkley-44% (37%)

Smith-42% (49%)

Brownlow (Constitution)-8% (8%).

Merkley strengths: Merkley is currently winning men, according to this poll and tied among women.  If he wins men, he wins the election without a doubt.  Merkley is also carried by his strength among younger voters, winning by 18% there.  He has stopped a lot of the bleeding of Dems to Smith, historically a Smith strength, or has at least grabbed an equal number of Republicans. Finally, among those who do not attend church regularly (42% of Oregonians), Merkley enjoys a 33% lead.

Smith strengths:  Smith remains fairly strong with many of the groups that have historically backed his candidacy, moderates, losing only by 7%.  He is favored by a substantial margin by voters older than 65, winning by 9%.  He is winning outside of Portland, by only by 3%, not a great showing for someone who is from Pendleton.  A Smith voter is a McCain voter as well, perhaps not surprising given their shared party ID.

What it means: Smith is in trouble.  His approval rating is down to 31% and among independents only 29% approve of him.  Merkley has nowhere to go but up, as although his disapproval is a little high (35% versus 30% approval) he is the challenger and is still relatively unknown.  If you ask me today, Merkley will more likely than not win this fall.

Let me know what you think.

The Kitchens Group for Jim Harlan (9/18-21, likely voters, June in parens):

Jim Harlan (D): 31 (15)

Steve Scalise (R-inc): 42 (68)

Undecided: 26 (17)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

In the diaries, Sean Fitzpatrick alerted us to this poll, and we’ve dug up the numbers for all to see.

If there was ever a district in Louisiana that screams “off limits” to Democrats, it’s this one. Its voters defeated John Kerry by 43 points in 2004, and even the Goreacle was stomped here by 36 points four years earlier. A heavily white New Orleans-area district, Democrat Gilda Reed only scored 22.5% of the vote here in the special election to replace Bobby Jinal this May.

But Democrat Jim Harlan, a successful businessman and former D.C. policy whiz in his own right, is giving this one a go, and he’s bringing his own considerable personal resources to bear.

Knocking off Scalise may seem hopeless, but if he can pin the man down and drain some of the GOP’s resources, he’ll at least make the lives of Don Cazayoux, Paul Carmouche, and Don Cravins, Jr. easier.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Things look increasingly good for Barack Obama and Kay Hagan in North Carolina, but the thing that jumped out at me this morning came from Stuart Rothenberg in his assessment of the senate race.

Dole is increasingly regarded as political roadkill by campaign observers, but reports of her electoral demise may be greatly exaggerated.

Yes, Dole doesn’t have the financial advantage that she should at this time, hasn’t returned to her state often enough, and for too long failed to appreciate the danger that she was in. While her poll numbers were good initially, her popularity nose-dived after Democratic attacks on her ineffectiveness in the Senate.

But the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s independent expenditure effort has begun in the Tar Heel State, and Dole’s campaign has finally become more aggressive. Challenger Kay Hagan remained unscathed (and undefined) until recently, and the GOP attacks are likely to help Dole improve her position in the contest.

Still, that only means that the Republican Senator is in a dogfight and still seriously vulnerable, hardly the position Dole expected to find herself in. Of course, her state is better for a Republican than Oregon is for Smith, and unlike in Oregon, Republicans are only now starting to brand Dole’s Democratic challenger as a liberal big taxer.

This is the first time I had heard of anyone considering Dole to be in such bad shape polls notwithstanding. I was wondering if anyone else is hearing the same thing.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call & KATU-TV (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 44 (37)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (49)

Dave Brownlow (C): 8 (7)

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±3.8%)

That’s a sharp drop for Smith, and it confirms all the recent polling we’ve seen here. Interestingly, both candidates have weak approvals: 31-42 for Smith and 30-35 for Merkley. But Merkley leads independents 45-36 and is benefitting from a top-of-the-ticket surge. Obama now beats McCain 52-41. (He led just 48-45 early last month.)

SSP currently rates this race Tossup.

SurveyUSA (9/22-23, likely voters):

Jack Markell (D): 64

Bill Lee (R): 29

Mike Protack (IPOD): 3

(MoE: ±3.6%)

“IPOD” stands for Independent Party of Delaware, and as this poll suggests: don’t take them to be much of a factor here. In fact, Protack himself withdrew from the race last week. Markell has this one locked. Move along, folks.

Bonus findings: It’s a Democratic blood bath at all levels in Delaware. Biden leads his Senate race by 64-32, and Obama leads McDodge by 57-37.

SurveyUSA (9/22-23, likely voters, 10/26-29/2007 in parens):

Tom Allen (D): 39 (38)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 55 (55)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

We’ve all been waiting for something… anything… to happen in this race, and all we’re seeing is a whopping 1-point Allen bounce over the past 10 months. Hard to feel bubbly about this one.

UPDATE: Actually, wait a sec. As andgarden points out in the comments, we’re seeing a classically messed-up youth sample in the crosstabs. Among 18-34 year-olds, Collins has a massive 64%-18% lead over Allen. Again, we’re seeing another SUSA poll with a wildly overstated GOP youth vote. (Just check out the Presidential numbers, where John McNap has a 49-37 lead over Barack Obama among this age bracket, compared to 49-44 for Obama overall.) SUSA really needs to look into this issue.

Sounds like they’ve lost that fightin’ spirit:

Former Raleigh Mayor Tom Fetzer and fellow Republican strategist Mark Stephens plan to seek new ventures after the November election, Fetzer said Tuesday.

“We don’t want to do campaigns anymore,” said Fetzer. “We’re old men, and this is a young man’s game.”

Both men are 53 years old. Fetzer and Stephens are both veterans of a host of Republican campaigns in North Carolina and are currently consultants to U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s re-election effort. Fetzer served three terms as Raleigh’s mayor in the 1990s.

Stephens was executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which helps orchestrate Republican senate races across the country, during the 2005-2006 election cycle, when Dole was the committee’s chairwoman. Republicans lost their majority in the Senate in 2006.

After helping Liddy Dole fritter away the GOP’s Senate majority two years ago and seeing Liddy’s own numbers take a dive in recent weeks, I couldn’t blame these gents for feeling a bit dispirited lately.

(H/T: John Rohrbach)

After Steve Scalise won the special election this spring with over 75% of the vote, most Democrats wrote off this election for November.  That is, until Jim Harlan stepped up to the plate.  With a large personal fortune to invest, Harlan has been running one of the DCCC’s “Emerging Races” and one of SSP’s “Races to Watch.”

Things just got a whole lot more interesting.  Via e-mail:

Jim asked us  to send you some secret campaign information asap, before it hits the papers. I think you will be pleased.

Jim has moved to within 11 points of Steve Scalise after starting from 53 points behind. Now, Scalise is 8 points below 50% – a devastating position for any incumbent but a particularly big problem for Scalise who has only been in office since the Spring of 2008 and only won with 33,000 total votes.

Some quick arithmetic points to a 42-31 race.  That’s certainly winnable, especially as Harlan hits Scalise hard on hurricane relief:

Things are looking good in Louisiana.

The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.