Swing State Project

Most political analysts agree on the following points:

– Democrats will retain control of the Senate and increase their margins.

– Republicans will forfeit seats to Democrats and concentrate on a handful (5 seats at most).

Therefore, let’s look at the developments so far:

– Republicans have already forfeited two seats to the Democrats: Virginia and New Mexico.

– Expect Colorado, a state where Obama is making strides, to be the next seat forfeited.

– Following the likely verdict of GUILTY, expect the NRSC to abandon “Uncle Ted” in Alaska.

For their part, the DSCC has also abandoned a few races, including NE, KS, and OK.  All are states which McCain should win easily.  

Expect Susan Collins in Maine to get the first pass by the DSCC.  Sure, Maine is an inexpensive market, containing only Portland and Bangor media outlets for the most part, yet Democrats will find themselves with NEW openings.

Here is a breakdown of FORFEITED races as a result:

Republicans: VA, NM, CO, and AK.

Democrats: NE, KS, OK, and ME.

While most polls indicate he is behind, expect the DSCC to spend in protecting the “Santorum” of this cycle: John Sununu.  While New Hampshire could go either way (Obama or McCain), expect voters to DUMP Sununu.

The next best hopes for Democrats are Oregon and North Carolina.  Both Republicans have been placed on the defensive.

In North Carolina, Dole wished that the election would have been based on illegal immigration, yet she should have learned that this was a flawed Republican strategy from 2006.  Now that the economy has taken center stage, Dole finds herself on the Outer Banks of the issue, literally.  Dole is also hurt by the fact that Obama is making NC competitive, African-Americans are energized, and Northeastern transplants are favoring Obama over McCain.  Bye bye Libby.  Expect Reagans former Labor Secretary and another Bush “foot soldier” to be packing it up back to the Watergate, Kansas, or from wherever she calls home.

In Oregon, businessman Smith is being forced to ask questions whether or not he employed illegal immigrants.  The answer is really irrelevant at this point since everyone knows that Smith was another “Yes Sir” to Bush.  While some call Oregon competitive, most see it as favoring Democrats.  At least Smith has a job waiting for him back home.

The final three races are Minnesota, Mississippi, and Kentucky (yes Mitch my MAN you are now in TROUBLE).  

While Minnesota should have clearly favored the Democrats, Franken has proven to be a flawed candidate.  Coleman is extremely unpopular and Barkley is taking votes from both (more from Franken than Coleman).  The race should be interesting, yet the DSCC should not have been forced to spend in a state which Obama should win soundly.

Mississippi is Republican on the federal level, yet clearly Democratic on the state and local level.  This gives Musgrove a chance.  Expect the race to become more competitive in the final two weeks.  Either could prevail.

Kentucky, the final straw, shares the same characteristics as Mississippi.  Republican on the federal level, yet Democratic on the state level.  Bush’s “Red Horse” may find himself scrambling for votes in the Blue Grass State.  While Mitch does have a strong cash advantage, Kentucky has some inexpensive media outlets.  Louisville and Cincinnati are the most expensive.  Bowling Green, Owensboro, Ashland, and Pikeville are less expensive.  Just like the Bunning race, which developed late, and ended fairly close, expect the same here.  My man Mitch and his wife, the failed Labor Secretary, are indeed entrenched with Bush.

A final state, which Democrats may make an attempt for, is Georgia. However, Atlanta is a very expensive market for advertising.  If Democrats feel that they have 2 of the 3 races above locked up, then expect a late minute dash against Chambliss.

For their part, Republicans are looking at three Democratic incumbents:

– Johnson in South Dakota (An absolute waste of valueable funds.  Republicans have essentially given him a pass, yet could always return.  Expect them to stay away).

– Lautenberg in New Jersey (There is no doubt the Lautenberg is a flawed incumbent and Corzine is extremely unpopular.  However, New Jersey is extremely expensive, Philadelphia and New York are the two major media markets.  Atlantic City being the sole remaining market.  Lautenberg’s base has always been in Northern New Jersey.  He is less favored in South Jersey.  Central New Jersey, which favored Lautenberg in the primary, will decisively determine him as the victor in a closer than expected race).

– Landrieu in Louisiana (This is essentially the most vulnerable Democrat, yet vulnerable with a small V.  Even with the exodus of African-Americans from New Orleans, Landrieu has proven effective in constituent services.  Republicans will advertise against her, yet at the cost of another Republican incumbent – Coleman, Smith, Dole, or Wicker).

In the end, expect all three Democratic incumbents to WIN.  

Expect Democrats to pick up VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, NC, and OR.  

Also expect, KY, MN, or MS to possibly fall.

GA will be the long shot in the end.    

Earlier in the day, we dug into the finances of state Rep. Michael Jackson, a Democrat-turned-Independent who is running against newly-minted Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux in Louisiana. We reported that Jackson received a surprising $500 contribution from North Carolina Democratic Rep. G.K. Butterfield, and asked the pertinent question: “what gives?”

Nathan Gonzales of Roll Call picks up where we left off:

After Jackson announced his Independent candidacy, Butterfield donated $500 to his campaign on July 26, after meeting the Louisiana legislator at a Congressional Black Caucus event. The contribution appeared on pre-primary Federal Election Commission reports filed nearly a month ago but went unnoticed until Swing State Project, a Democratic blog, pointed it out Wednesday morning.

“It was a mistake,” said Butterfield’s communications director, Ken Willis. “[Jackson] was just introduced at the CBC event as a Congressional candidate.” Apparently, Butterfield did not realize that his contribution was for the general election and that Jackson was running as an Independent against a Democratic incumbent.

“If [Butterfield] had known it would be for the general election, he wouldn’t have done it,” Willis added. “He didn’t want to do anything to hurt the party.”

Why Jackson was allowed into a CBC event two weeks after he filed as an Independent is beyond me, but it appears that Mr. Butterfield made an honest mistake — and I think that we can take him for his word on this one. If I were him, though, I’d respectfully ask for my money back.

Hoo boy. You gotta hand it to Republicans. They always know how to “stay classy”.

The latest? Republican state Sen. Steve Austria, running to replace retiring GOP Rep. Dave Hobson in an R+6 central Ohio district, is spewing out a “unique” new attack against his Democratic opponent, attorney Sharen Neuhardt. Austria is now criticizing her family’s sponsorship of a Rwandan political refugee and survivor of that country’s brutal genocide:

Austria’s campaign manager, Brad Mascho, told Cox News that “harboring an illegal immigrant with a criminal record is a serious matter.”

There are lies and then there are vile lies — this one is the latter. As Jeff at the Ohio Daily Blog writes, Ishema Umuhoza has been living in the United States legally as he waits for federal courts to review his petition for political asylum. In the meantime, he graduated from the University of Dayton in 2005 and had some minor brushes with the law (driving without a license and walking home while intoxicated). The Neuhardt family has been aiding Umuhoza since 2002, offering him a place to stay and taking up his legal fight for political asylum in the courts. In turn, Republican Steve Austria and the slimeballs at the NRCC are attacking Neuhardt for her act of generosity.

The Sharen Neuhardt campaign calls this a “cowardly attack”, and we’re inclined to agree. Austria and his slime crew should be ashamed of themselves, assuming they had any moral fiber to begin with.

UPDATE: Here’s the reaction from DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer:

“Steve Austria smearing Sharen’s family for helping a Rwandan refugee who escaped a mass genocide is one of the most shameful and despicable moves made in any race this cycle,” Rudominer said. “Clearly, Steve Austria spit on John McCain and Sarah Palin’s request to keep a candidate’s family off limits.”

EMILY’s List gets creative against Vern Buchanan:

Update: Episode II is available here.

Anzalone-Liszt for Paul Hodes (9/14-18, likely voters):

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 50

Jennifer Horn (R): 32

Chester Lapointe (L): 4

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Horn, a disingenuous, unaccomplished radio host, recently released an internal poll of her own showing her trailing Hodes by a mere 43-39 margin. Yes, we’re looking at the results of two partisan pollsters, but I’ll take an Anzalone survey over a cheapo Public Opinion Strategies poll any day of the week.

Here are some bonus numbers: Jeanne Shaheen holds a 55-38 lead over John Sununu in the district, and Obama is leading by 52-39.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: And yeah, I saw that new Rasmussen poll showing Shaheen trailing Sununu by a whopping seven-point margin. This one has “funky outlier” written all over it.

Rasmussen has just released a new poll showing John Sununu defeating Jeanne Shaheen 52-45 (9/23).

I don’t have access to Rasmussen internals, so I don’t have any insights into any of the details.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

This is a dramatic reversal from their last poll of this race approximately a month ago (8/19) that showed Shaheen ahead 51-40. It is also at odds with the ARG’s poll last week that showed it a 52-40 Shaheen lead. (Although a UNH poll – with lots of problems – showed only a 4 point Shaheen lead and an NRSC/Sununu internal showed it at 2% ahead for Shaheen).

(According to Pollster, the only other poll of the last 1 1/2 years that has shown Sununu in front was one from Republican pollster ARG in Dec 07)

We know that Rasmussen tends to over-represent Republicans in their samples, but this seems like an real outlier even for them. Nothing in NH has happened that would produce a 12 point increase for Sununu (or a 6 point drop for Shaheen).

Also makes one question their last presidential result in the state, where they showed McCain gaining and ahead of Obama by 2% (at a time when Obama has been consistently going up nationally).

I’ve always expected this race to tighten up before election day, but this kind of dramatic shift seems way off base.

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

Congressman Frank Pallone and I hosted a conference call earlier today to discuss what the war in Iraq has cost New Jersey and why New Jersey can’t afford another four years of the failed Bush policies in Iraq that Chris Smith and John McCain want to continue. To see exactly what the war in Iraq has cost New Jersey, go to National Priorities.org.

On the call I emphasized the following:

· I support a responsible end to the war in Iraq so that we can invest in America’s urgent domestic priorities like renewable energy, and break our addiction to foreign oil as well as lower gas and electricity costs.

· Chris Smith and John McCain have supported George Bush every step of the way on Iraq, from believing faulty intelligence, to believing we would be greeted as liberators, to believing the war will pay for itself with Iraqi oil.

· Each month, the United States spends $10 billion a month in Iraq – money which could be used to address domestic priorities like ensuring affordable health care, rebuilding our infrastructure or hiring more teachers or public safety officers.

· Incredibly, Iraq is right now holding onto $79 billion in excess oil revenues. We’re spending $10 billion a month to rebuild Iraq instead of using that money to create jobs here in America.

· The citizens of the 4th Congressional district have paid $2.2 billion for the war effort. That money could have been used to provide every home in the 4th Congressional District with Renewable Electricity, with enough money left over to help provide affordable health coverage for our residents.

That $2.2 billion could:

· Provide 203,137 People with Health Care for One Year

· Power 3,096,562 Homes with Renewable Electricity for One Year

· Hire 37,775 Public Safety Officers for One Year

· Provide 724,756 Children with Health Care for One Year

· Provide 28,856 Port Container Inspectors for One Year

· We can’t keep doing what we’re doing. We need change at all levels of government.

· Chris Smith and John McCain have no plan to bring our troops home.

· We need to elect a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress to bring our troops home and invest in our country’s future.

The campaign is entering a critical phase and I need your support. You can contribute at my ActBlue page. If you’d like to volunteer, please contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. Please visit Josh’s website to learn more about what I stand for.

It’s no secret that Democrats are posting a big voter registration surge in Florida. According to estimates from the Florida Democratic Party, Dems have added 287,770 new voters this year to the GOP’s 112,290 (and 90,000 independents). While Republicans have been publicly brushing off suggestions that this trend is at all worrisome to their party, their actions suggest otherwise. So here’s the latest ploy from Florida’s GOP to tip the scales back in their favor:

The Florida Department of State, backed by Gov. Charlie Crist, is rushing to implement a new law that could block thousands of those voters’ ballots. And turn Election Day 2008 in Florida into a catastrophe akin to the hanging-chads debacle of 2000, if legions of disenfranchised voters step up with lawsuits.

Here’s what’s happening:

With six weeks before the Nov. 4 elections, Florida Secretary of State Kurt Browning last week began enforcing what’s known as the “No Match, No Vote” law.

Passed by the GOP-dominated Legislature as an anti-fraud measure, No Match, No Vote bars citizens from voting if their driver’s license or Social Security number don’t match information from government databases.

Stopping voter fraud is a fine idea, but the databases are error prone.

Simple glitches such as clerical typos toss out voters’ applications, and unusual spellings of names of new voters could cause “no match” results.

With no time for troubleshooting the system, that could falsely disenfranchise many who’ve done nothing wrong.

Florida’s elections officials are already swamped with the processing of the many thousands of new voter registrations being turned in. They may not have time to contact new applicants and get any discrepancies sorted out.

Consider this just another friendly reminder that Republicans will do everything in their power to game the system in their favor.

Blocked predatory lending crackdown, wants more giveaways to Wall Street

A devastating week for the U.S. financial sector has underscored the danger of congressional candidate Kirk Schuring’s economic policies for working families in the 16th Congressional District and across America.

Democratic candidate John Boccieri said today:

“Kirk Schuring’s economic philosophy is as bankrupt as Lehman Brothers. He is not offering the change that middle class families need to bounce back from this economic crisis.”

Schuring is staking his campaign on the same failed policies that caused the crisis by constantly siding with Wall Street over Main Street. His policy stances will actually worsen the impact of economic instability for middle class families.

FACT: Schuring blocked crackdowns on predatory lenders in the state legislature. In 2001, he helped push through a sham reform bill supported by predatory lenders in order to prevent Ohio’s local communities from regulating out-of-control predatory mortgage loans. HB 386; “Home Security,” The Columbus Dispatch, 9/21/05

FACT: Schuring’s top economic priority is giving more tax breaks to the Wall Street firms that created this financial mess. Corporate tax giveaways are the very first item in Schuring’s “jobs plan” – but he has not proposed a single tax cut directed at the middle class. www.schuringforcongress.com/issues, accessed 9/24/08

FACT: Schuring’s response to the crisis focuses only on helping Wall Street. In an interview on WHBC this morning, Schuring did not once call for direct assistance to the innocent homeowners at the heart of this crisis.

FACT: While Schuring claims to oppose out-of-control spending in Washington, he insists on an open-ended commitment to spending $5,000 per second in Iraq, which has already led to the largest budget deficit in American history, forced the government to borrow billions from nations like China, and left us with limited resources to stabilize our struggling economy. “16th District Notebook,” The Canton Repository, 9/21/08

FACT: Schuring has said “I think everything should be on the table” when it comes to Social Security. “Kirk Schuring on Social Security/Medicare,” accessed 9/24/08 Schuring’s Republican allies in Washington have been trying for years to turn Social Security over to Wall Street, and Schuring’s stunningly anti-senior record in the state legislature makes clear that he can’t be trusted to look out for older Americans in Congress. “Boccieri Calls for Protecting Social Security on 73rd Anniversary“

Let the facts speak for themselves; Kirk Schuring’s policy positions are not what the working families of Ohio’s 16th Congressional District need in the United States Congress.