Swing State Project

SurveyUSA (9/21-22, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

I’ll file Washington’s governor’s race in the “good news” column: after a period in the post-GOP convention afterglow when Dino Rossi nosed ahead of Chris Gregoire (or shot ahead by 6, in the case of that sketchy Rasmussen poll), we may be returning the old stasis, with a tiny edge for Gregoire, who remains deeply dependent on Obama coattails to get her over the finish line. In the same sample, Obama leads 54-43, again, much more plausible than his +2 in the last Rasmussen. (H/t mikeel.)

UPDATE: Here’s an amusing little aside. The Washington Democratic Party is suing Secretary of State Sam Reed (a Republican, but a highly ethical one) to force him to change Rossi’s self-selected ballot line (from “GOP Party” to “Republican”). I don’t think the Dems have a legal leg to stand on, but it makes sense for them to try, in wake of last week’s Elway poll giving Gregoire a 4-point lead when Rossi is identified as “prefers GOP Party” and a 10-point lead when he’s identified as “Republican.”

PPP (9/17-19, likely voters, 9/9 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 44 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (40)

Michael Munger (L): 6 (6)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Civitas (R) (9/17-20, registered voters, 9/6-10 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (40)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (39)

Michael Munger: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

I’ll file North Carolina under “mixed bag,” as PPP gives Perdue another small edge (this is the same sample that showed Obama and McCain tied at 46 and Hagan up by 5). Civitas gives McCrory a two-point edge, up from a one-point deficit before (this sample showed Obama/McCain tied at 45 and Dole up by 2). This one clearly will go down to the wire.

Research 2000 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch (9/15-18, likely voters, 7/7-10 in parentheses):

Jay Nixon (D): 50 (52)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 43 (35)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I’ll file this under “bad news,” but this is the kind of bad news that I’ll gladly take. Jay Nixon still leads Kenny Hulshof by a comfortable margin in the race for the open governor’s seat in Missouri, except Research 2000 (working for the St. Louis newspaper rather than Daily Kos on this one) shows that Hulshof has closed within high single digits instead of the showy double-digit margins Nixon has mostly been posting. Rasmussen gave Nixon a 15-point spread last week, so there’s not much cause for alarm, though. (McCain leads in this sample, 49-45.)

No, not the King of Pop. I’m talking about state Rep. Michael Jackson (“D”), who’s running as an Independent with an official campaign strategy of taking as many African-American votes away from Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux as possible. Jackson insists that such a strategy will allow him to sneak up the middle and win in November, but at only 9% in the polls, such a scenario is beyond dubious.

As of August 17th, Jackson only had $12,600 on-hand. That’s peanuts. But it’s still worth asking: who’s giving him the peanuts?

Well, a significant share ($6,900) came from developer Lane Grigsby, a man who spent tens of thousands of dollars on his own attack ads and mailers against Cazayoux in May, and from two of his relatives. Grigsby’s motive for bankrolling Jackson is pretty sickeningly transparent — he doesn’t want Jackson to win; he just wants to satisfy his desire to see Cazayoux lose.

That sort of thing is messed up, but it’s not as messed up as this contribution that Jackson collected on July 26th. Yes, you read that correctly: Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield (NC-01) sent Jackson a $500 check from his campaign committee two weeks after he entered the race as an independent. Let me repeat this: G.K. Butterfield, a Democrat in the House of Representatives, donated $500 to help defeat Don Cazayoux, a fellow Democrat.

Pardon me for saying so, but that’s pretty fucked up.

Races to Watch:

Today’s ratings changes:

CA-26 (Dreier): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

It’s time to separate the wheat from the chaff, so to speak. We held out hope for quite a while that Democrat Russ Warner would be able to make a race in this R+4 district — one of the very few plausible targets for Democrats in California — but this contest has never really climbed that far up the heat index. Despite running his campaign for over a year and a half, Warner has only been able to cobble together $651K and ended the second quarter with just $150K in the bank.

Incumbent GOP Rep. David Dreier bucked the nationwide trend in 2006 by spending some serious cash ($2.5 million) and scoring a 57-38 win over his unknown opponent — a significant improvement over his 53-43 margin in 2004. Dreier had $1.9 million on hand at the end of July — well more than he’ll need in order to swamp out Warner’s message this fall. Based on the nationwide dynamics, it’s not hard to imagine Warner climbing to as high as the mid-40s on election day, but it’s pretty tough to imagine him hitting 50% on his budget, barring some fabulous divine intervention.

CA-46 (Rohrabacher): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

I’m sorry to say it, but here’s the Swing State Project’s new Mendoza Line of the Swing: If you aren’t even listed on the DCCC’s Races to Watch list alongside the likes of Rob Hubler (IA-05) and Steve O’Donnell (PA-18), what chance do you really have? Many Dems started the cycle with high hopes for Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook. Like they used to say in Brooklyn, wait ’till next year!

CT-04 (Shays): Lean Republican to Tossup

There are a lot of words that describe Chris Shays: weenie, flip-flopper, Bush booster, and out-of-touch are a few of my personal favorites. But you can also call him “survivor”. Despite occupying a D+5.4 seat, Shays is the sole remaining House Republican in New England, and he has beaten back fierce challenges from Democrats before. However, many indications point to this year being his most challenging yet.

Shays faces Jim Himes, a progressive businessman who has spent the past several years as an executive at an affordable housing non-profit organization. Himes has been raising some serious dough, has kept pace with Shays in the money race, and has the benefit of a cash-flush DCCC to help tip the scales here. But more than that, we feel pretty confident in predicting that Connecticut’s 4th will not be a McCain-friendly district in November, and we also feel that Barack Obama’s candidacy will help energize the Democratic performance in Bridgeport — a Democratic area with a large black population that typically has seen underperforming voter turnout.

Recent unanswered internal polling for the Himes campaign suggests that this race is tied, and the DCCC has just begun exploiting Shays’ hopelessly deluded comments that “our economy is fundamentally strong” in this new ad. In a district heavily dependent on the financial services sector, Shays is particularly vulnerable in a time of economic turmoil. Hefty expenditures by the National Association of Realtors on his behalf, coupled by his perceived “moderate” image, will keep this race close.

FL-08 (Keller): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Ric Keller is unloved in the 8th District of Florida. If his surprisingly close 53-47 primary win earlier this month wasn’t proof enough, his Democratic opponent, attorney Alan Grayson, released a poll showing Keller trailing by four points. While we’re not yet convinced that that margin paints an accurate portrait of this race, we do believe that Keller has a lot of reasons to be sweating bullets in this R+3 Orlando-based district.

The biggest? The district’s Democratic voter registration surge. Dems cut the Republican voter registration advantage here from 14,400 in 2006 to 2,100 at the end of July — and things keep getting bluer (and more ethnically diverse) by the week. Grayson was a surprise primary winner here, and he still has a lot to prove in terms of fundraising (he has relied almost exclusively on his own coffers so far), but this match-up looks to be a real race.

GA-12 (Barrow): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Under the rubric we use, a “Safe” rating means that we’re ruling out the possibility of an upset, even a remote one. While Barrow’s incredibly weak performance in 2006 kept this race on our big board for quite some time, it’s hard to imagine how a guy like John Stone, who had all of $8000 on-hand at the end of June, can pull off what Max Burns wasn’t able to do in 2006. Barrow will be aided by an uptick in African-American voters (this district is 45% black) who are energized to vote in the Presidential race for well-discussed reasons. To put an exclamation mark on how safe Barrow is, the National Rifle Association just endorsed him yesterday — something that the group rarely does for federal Dems.

IA-04 (Latham): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

While incumbent Rep. Tom Latham has to be considered favored in his bid for re-election at this point, at a PVI of D+0.4, this district is prime swing territory, and recent polls are showing a rather stark Obama surge in Iowa. Democrat Becky Greenwald’s fundraising could be stronger, but between her recent EMILY’s List endorsement and the state’s blue turn, we feel that there’s an outside chance of something interesting developing here.

ID-01 (Sali): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

See David’s post for our detailed rundown on this change. The bottom line: Bill Sali is the most collossally perfect fuckup the Republicans have on their roster, and Dem Walt Minnick is poised to take advantage of that.

IL-06 (Roskam): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

The prospect of Barack Obama’s home state coattails dragging Democrat Jill Morgenthaler kept this race alive on our list of long shots, but we no longer see such a scenario playing out. Peter Roskam held back an extremely well-funded Democratic challenge here in 2006, and Morgenthaler hasn’t been able to scrape together enough chump change to make this one interesting. Her role as apologist-spokesbot for the Army during the Abu Ghraib scandal made Morgenthaler toxic to many liberals from the get-go. And her ties to the hated Gov. Rod Blagojevich remain easily exploitable if Roskam should choose to “go there.”

IL-08 (Bean): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Republicans fantasized that businessman Steve Greenberg could at least force another opportunity to make Democrat Melissa Bean sweat in this R+5 district. The only problem is that Greenberg hasn’t opened up his own pockets like the NRCC had hoped, and his fundraising has been anemic. It also sounds like Greenberg’s campaign has a few management issues. At the end of the day, Bean is an incumbent whose skills have been tested in the crucible of several close elections — she’s not liable to make a mistake in the final six weeks of the campaign. And with Obama at the top of the ticket, the Presidential headwind will be less of a factor for Bean to deal with. This race moves off the board.

IL-18 (Open): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

Oof. It pains us to make this change, but we feel that we have little choice. Regular SSP readers know that we love to torment Aaron Schock. Schock’s harebrained rants against Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama, as well as his widely-panned (and eventually retracted) idea to sell nukes to Taiwan leave us with no doubts that he’s little more than a glorified college Republican pissant. But in a conservative R+6 district, you need a solid Democratic campaign in order to win, and we haven’t seen one from Colleen Callahan, who continues to lag badly in both money and polls. Her only hope was to get on the air early and drive up Schock’s negatives to the point of unelectability. The problem is, the reverse seems to have happened. Callahan’s recent foot-in-mouth comments regarding reinstating the draft leave us unimpressed and disappointed in this race.

KY-02 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Multiple polls released over the past several months have shown Democrat David Boswell, a three-decade veteran of Kentucky politics, with a small lead over Republican Brett Guthrie for this R+13 open seat. The only problem is that, up until recently, Boswell hasn’t given much indication that he was willing to do the necessary grunt work of dialing for dollars. Case in point: he ended the month of June with only $45K in the bank. However, the DCCC has grown interested enough in this race to both add Boswell to its Red to Blue program and to reserve $840,000 in ad time for this race. Additionally, Boswell has gathered enough resources to begin airing his own ads. Boswell still has a lot to prove, but the DCCC’s heavy involvement here tells us that he has a fighting chance.

MD-01 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Democrat Frank Kratovil made a crucially huge score when he snagged the endorsement of moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, the district’s incumbent who was unceremoniously defeated in the Republican primary by state Sen. Andy Harris. Kratovil still faces some stiff challenges in this R+10 district, but the most recent poll shows a tied race. Kratovil, a prosecutor from the district’s Eastern Shore, will have to in part make this a race about geography (Travis Childers-style), using Harris’ western base against him in the rest of the district.

NY-19 (Hall): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

In these troubled economic times, are the voters of suburban NYC really gonna turf their freshly-minted Democratic incumbent in favor of some punk wingnut? We don’t think so. Hall’s brief career has been all but flawless, and his fundraising has been exceptional. Lalor has a few coins to rub together, but not enough scrilla to make a difference.

PA-06 (Gerlach): Likely Republican to Safe Republican

The good news: The latest GOP poll here showed that Bob Roggio doubled his name recognition. The bad news that says it all: He’s now at 10%. If something was going to happen here, we’d already be seeing it. If this election was going to be 1932-sized monster wave, Roggio would be a logical choice to get swept along. But we’re not counting on a miracle here.

The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.

The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!

But don’t get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom’s Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:

• AL-02: $150,000
  

• IL-11: $430,000
  

• NJ-03: $74,000
  

• NJ-07: $500,000

The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.

This was the plan:

Despite those developments, the rumor and speculation continued unabated today, with two top Island politicos saying that the only reason Fossella even considered getting back in the race was because Straniere had previously agreed to step aside if the congressman decided to run again.

“There was this whole big plan,” said one. “Suddenly, Straniere said no.”

In fact, sources said, the late GOP congressional designee Frank Powers also was meant to serve as a “placeholder” candidate should Fossella decide to get back in.

The thinking, they said, was that the Fossella camp would look to launch a re-election bid after the scandal about the child the congressman fathered during an extramarital affair abated.

This is the problem:

“It’s over,” said Straniere, who has battled with some borough Republicans for years. “I am the Republican candidate for Congress. I’m not getting off the line for nobody, no way, no how. I am totally committed to this race. I’m not going to do anything but run for Congress.”

This is Democrat Mike McMahon laughing all the way to the Washington, D.C.

SUSA released another poll on this fascinating governor’s race:

9/23 (682 LVs +/-3.8%) 9/8 in parentheses:

Gregoire 50 (47)

Rossi    48 (48)

So it’s back to where it was just before the primary.  Rossi is still up 53-43 among independents, and the gender gap is small.  They are tied at 48 among men and Gregoire is up 51-47 among women.  I’m starting to think Rossi may have a big barrier at the 48% level that he needs to cross.  Maybe we can be a bit more optimistic on this race.

Bonus result:  Obama leads McCain in the state 54-43.

 

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

Last week, we finished surveying the lay of the land out West. This week, we begin to turn our attention to the Midwest. Yes, that’s right. The Midwest looks to be once again a crucial battleground to win both the White House and Congress. And with just six weeks left until election day, we’d like to talk about the state of the races in America’s Heartland.

So would you like to join us?

Let’s begin with Ohio. Ohio may yet again be THE critical swing state this year, as polls show an extremely tight race here. However, the Presidential race isn’t the only exciting contest in The Buckeye State. We also have some great opportunities to win some more Congressional seats as well!

In the Columbus based 15th District, we have a great candidate in Mary Jo Kilroy. She’s currently a Franklin County (Columbus) Commissioner who has a terrific record of accomplishments in bringing Republicans and Democrats together to enact real solutions to the county’s economic, health care, and environmental problems. But while Kilroy offers a message of real change, her Republican opponent only offers more of the same Bush-Cheney-McCain nonsense. Mary Jo Kilroy nearly ousted the Republican incumbent in 2006 (who’s now retiring) and Bush barely squeaked by with 50% of the vote here in 2004, so this district is ripe for the picking in 2008! With the DCCC and EMILY’S List already all in here, our help can really help put Mary Jo Kilroy (and Barack Obama, for that matter!) on top this November.

Another race that the DCCC and other top Democrats are targeting in Ohio is the 16th District. Here, Air Force veteran and current state representative John Boccieri is running to bring some real change for Northeast Ohio. He’s fought for our country, and he now wants to fight for Ohioans… For more and better jobs, affordable health care, and real help in these perilous economic times. Meanwhile, Republican Kurt Schuring… Well, he’s not quite as fond of his possible future constituents. This race is quite winnable for Democrats, and we have a terrific candidate in John Boccieri. If we support him, he will win.

Another state that’s critical for Barack Obama this fall is Michigan. The race here is close, but the renewed focus on the economy does seem to help Obama here. If there’s any state that’s been severely hit by the economic downturn, it’s Michigan.  And hopefully with Obama’s message resonating here, we can also elect more good Democrats to Congress from here.

One great candidate running is Gary Peters from Michigan’s 9th District (Oakland County, Detroit suburbs). Peters is an accomplished state legislator, business owner, and a Navy Veteran who signed up again to serve after 9/11. Unlike the incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg, Peters wants to get to work to help rebuild Michigan’s economy. But in order to make change happen here, we need to help Gary Peters win.

Michigan and Ohio are two critical swing states for Barack Obama to win this fall. If he wins them both, he’ll likely win the White House. But in addition to the Presidential race, we have critical Congressional races to win as well in these two states. Please don’t forget to help all these wonderful Democrats win by giving what you can here and by volunteering for the campaign if you live in or near any of these districts. With our help, we’ll make victory happen on November 4 in the Midwest and all over the country! 🙂

The campaigns of Democrat Debbie Halvorson and Republican Marty Ozinga both released new internal polls today, and they agree on one key point: Halvorson is ahead.

Public Opinion Strategies for Marty Ozinga (9/17-18, likely voters, August in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 38 (40)

Marty Ozinga (R): 36 (33)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Anzalone-Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (9/14-16, likely voters, May in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 43 (43)

Marty Ozinga (R): 35 (32)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

If there is a point of concern, it’s that Halvorson hasn’t built on her lead despite a whopping $641,000 spent on her behalf and against Ozinga by the DCCC and EMILY’s List in the past couple of months. Both candidates have their own special kind of baggage (Halvorson for the Blagojevich association, Ozinga for his extremely shady business practices and various tax liens), so this could end up being a matter of which candidate emerges less banged-up at the end of the day.

Ozinga’s poll finds that McCain holds a 44-43% lead in IL-11 — that might at first glance seem a bit slanted given Obama’s home state advantage, but keep in mind that Bush beat John Kerry by a 53-46 margin here in 2004.

Oh, and there’s this nugget from NRCC Chair Tom Cole:

Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Monday the group will contribute the maximum $84,000 in direct or indirect aid allowable by law to Ozinga in the coming weeks.

Cole said the race for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller, R-Morris, is among at least 50 and maybe 60 seats the NRCC will seek to influence in the stretch run. He said the committee had not moved to help Ozinga and other candidates so far due to limited funds.

“This is a ‘don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes,’ ” strategy, Cole said.

It’s sort of fitting that Cole would use a battle cry from the American Revolutionary War, when the range of muskets was severely limited, as the NRCC’s capabilities have certainly regressed by a few decades over the past year and a half.

Also amusing is Cole’s note that the NRCC will influence “at least 50 and maybe 60 seats” this fall. With what? Spitballs? Well, I guess the NRCC can influence a race by not spending any money on it…

UPDATE: Full Anzalone-Liszt polling memo below the fold.

So much for Bill Cassidy being a “major upgrade” over Woody Jenkins for Louisiana Republicans. The DCCC is out with a hard-hitting new attack ad nailing Cassidy for his steadfast support of Social Security privatization (the bad kind of “SSP”):

In 2008, this kind of thing is just utterly toxic.

We’re up to our neck in new polls today — in other words, we’re now in horse race junkie heaven.

First, Colorado. Public Policy Polling (9/20-21, likely voters, 8/5-7 in parens):

Mark Udall (D): 48 (47)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (41)

Undecided: 12 (12)

(MoE: ±3%)

And Quinnipiac (9/14-21, likely voters, 7/14-22):

Mark Udall (D): 48 (44)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (44)

Undecided: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Two quality polls from quality pollsters showing great results for Mark Udall. Sooner or later, Dick Wadhams & Co. will have to look down and realize that they’ve run off a cliff.

Bonus findings: Quinnipiac shows Obama leading McCain by 49-45 in Colorado, and PPP pegs Obama’s lead at a dramatic 51-44.

MN-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/14-21, likely voters, 7/14-22 in parens):

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 49 (53)

Al Franken (D): 42 (38)

Other: 3 (2)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Well, the trend line is positive, so at least we have that much, but I wish that Quinnipiac included Dean Barkley in the match-up. We’ve already seen Barkley taking a significant share of the vote in other polls, so he’s the big X-factor here.

Bonus finding: Qunnipiac shows Obama edging McCain by 47-45 in Minnesota.