Swing State Project

I had not planned to publish another Oregon political news roundup but a few stories in today’s news cry out for me to make them known to the blogosphere.  They are:

1. Matt Wingard’s troubles deepen-The State Legislative candidate’s (R) child abuse issues may be worse than previously thought.

2. Oregon Dems blast the bailout.

3. Oregon Dems surge in registration in OR-5.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Matt Wingard’s Troubles Deepen:

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/a_political_ad_notes_wilsonvil.html.

As reported yesterday, the Oregon D’s have launched an ad critical of State Rep. candidate (and interim incumbent) Matt Wingard (R-Wilsonville) regarding his 2002 conviction for misdemeanor assault for attacking his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver.  However, the story does not end there.  According to filings made over custody of the child in 2004 (Wingard and the child’s mother never married), the child’s mother claims that this incident was “part of a history of abusive behavior by Wingard, including slapping that left bruises.”  This begs the question of how the Republicans can really claim to be family first if they can’t even pick a candidate who takes care of their own family.

Oregon Dems Blast the Bailout:

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/defazio_urges_congress_to_go_s.html

Led by longtime OR Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-OR4), Oregon Democrats stood up against Henry Paulson’s $700B bailout plan in unison.  As Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) said, “Unless we address the underlying faults in the system that brought us to this financial abyss in the first place, we may simply be building the world’s largest bridge to nowhere.”  By contrast, Gordon Smith couldn’t seem to make up his mind, stating that “We’re looking at a bad option and potentially worse options.”  This is perhaps further proof of how out of touch Gordon Smith is, not surprising given his substantial wealth and strong record as a Bush clone.  Still, I am proud to say that Oregon Democrats stand united against this giveaway.

Oregon Dems Surge in Registration in OR-5

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/democratic_registration_surges.html

Oregon’s fifth congressional district has never been considered safe for the Democrats.  Since first taking office, retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-OR) had never won with even as much as 60% of the vote and always faced a registration disadvantage.  Well, that is no longer true as the Democrats now hold an edge of about 20k in the district, which combined with the myriad problems of Republican candidate Mike Erickson, should give Schrader a relatively easy win.

Let me know what you think.

Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies for the DCCC and EMILY’s List (9/15-17, likely voters):

Alice Kryzan (D): 39

Chris Lee (R): 29

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Evidently, leaners weren’t pushed off the fence in this poll, so one wonders what the picture would look like had that been done, but these are still some promising numbers for Alice Kryzan.

The full polling memo is available below the fold. Check out Lee’s name ID: 30%. No wonder the undecideds are so high.

Well, this is the big break that Boswell needed:

Now, the Democrat has been added to the DCCC’s exploding “Red to Blue” list and estimates he’s taken in another quarter of a million dollars since the May 20 primary. But the best news may be the DCCC reservation of $840,000 worth of ads in the district, with the ads slated to begin at the end of the week.

The DCCC’s ads could be in critical in the expensive Louisville media market, where about three-fifths of the voters reside and where neither Boswell nor Guthrie is particularly well-known. The National Republican Congressional Committee has not reserved time in the district.

Earlier in the summer, Boswell posted a three-point lead over Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie in a SUSA poll of the race. He followed that up earlier this month with a Garin-Hart-Yang internal showing him leading by eight points. Boswell has been active in Kentucky politics for decades, serving in the state Senate since 1991, and before that, as the state’s Commissioner of Agriculture and five years in the state House.

However, with only $45,000 in the bank at the end of June, Boswell was at risk of getting swamped out by the far superior fundraising of Guthrie. With the DCCC on board, Boswell now has a fighting chance.

UPDATE: Here’s the first ad:

Jonah has the whole sordid story in the diaries, but let’s take a look at this new curve ball. From the New York Post:

Republican Robert Straniere, who’s running for Rep. Vito Fossella’s seat, was nominated as a Manhattan judicial candidate last night – a move that could pave the way for the disgraced congressman to get back on the ballot and run for re-election.

Several Republican sources said the New York County GOP made the nomination with the understanding that Straniere would accept it.

The move was apparently made with the backing of former Borough President Guy Molinari and state Sen. Andrew Lanza, who hope to entice disgraced retiring GOP Rep. Vito Fossella back into the race. With Straniere accepting the judgeship nod, he would be wiped off the ballot and the local GOP could appoint a replacement candidate. The only problem? For now, at least, Straniere says that he won’t play ball:

But Straniere, a former Staten Island assemblyman who’s been at odds with fellow Republicans, hasn’t been contacted about the judicial post and “unequivocally” plans to turn it down, his spokesman told The Post.

“He’s heard rumors, but he doesn’t know anything about it,” spokesman Marco DeSena insisted. “There is no chance . . . If contacted, he will say no and he very much expects to be the next congressman from Staten Island and Brooklyn.”

And Fossella himself? Still not sounding eager:

“I’ve maintained all along that I’m not a candidate,” Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) said in a telephone interview. “That’s still the case now. Very simply, nothing has changed.” […]

Given the turmoil in the markets, Fossella said he listened to entreaties from Molinari and others “out of respect.”

Said Fossella, “A lot of good people have again urged me to reconsider. I’ve been very blessed and humbled by that. I’m grateful. But at the end of it all, I’m still not a candidate.”

We’ll find out in short order if Molinari and the boys are able to strong-arm Straniere from this race; as the Advance reports, Straniere has until midnight to accept and be placed in nomination. It seems unlikely, but you just can’t predict what’s going to happen next in New York’s 13th, home of the greatest political soap opera of our time.

SurveyUSA (9/21-22, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 46 (40)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 49 (52)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Well, that’s an amazingly nice spread if true, but two other recent polls show this race more in the 13 to 17-point range (although one of them is a Mitchie internal). I’d have to see this trend confirmed in another poll to start getting my hopes up, but I’m glad that we have Lunsford to keep on this race like a bloodhound.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

UPDATE: The crosstabs for this one are now available. As Taegan Goddard might say, here’s your “key finding”:

6 in 10 voters tell SurveyUSA they are focused on the economy, ahead of all other issues. Among voters focused on the economy, McConnell went from a 6-point lead 6 weeks ago, to a 9-point deficit today, a 15-point swing to the Democrat.

And:

To put these numbers into context, it is critical to note that the identical survey that polled Kentucky voters on the US Senate race also asked about the Presidential contest. The same respondents rethinking McConnell are sticking with John McCain. McCain led by 18 points 6 weeks ago, leads by 19 points today.

So there are three ways Bob from Manhattan can get off of the ballot, death, moving out of the state and being nominated for a judgeship.  Last night he was nominated, possibly against his desire, for a judgeship position.  From the NY Post;

Republican Robert Straniere, who’s running for Rep. Vito Fossella’s seat, was nominated as a Manhattan judicial candidate last night – a move that could pave the way for the disgraced congressman to get back on the ballot and run for re-election.

Several Republican sources said the New York County GOP made the nomination with the understanding that Straniere would accept it.

But Straniere, a former Staten Island assemblyman who’s been at odds with fellow Republicans, hasn’t been contacted about the judicial post and “unequivocally” plans to turn it down, his spokesman told The Post.

There are very mixed signals here. Earlier last week there was polling going around indicating Fossella or someone close to him were looking to see if he could win re-election, if only he could find a way back on the ballot.  We had a quick New York civics lesson on how you replace a nominee on the ballot when Paul Atanasio, the Conservative Party nominee in this race was nominated for a judicial position, allowing the state party to then replace him with some no name.

Bob Straniere is saying he doesn’t want the judgeship and is running for Congress.  Bob can simply not accept it and this farce of a Fossella comeback is dead.  It looks like this is the most likely situation, but certainly if Fossella wants in you never know what offer Straniere might get.  

This simply could just be a lot of political pressure and maneuvering by a party that  has lost its leadership and is falling apart or this potentially, and I say this with much hesitation, could open up the seat for Fossella to be renominated.  I don’t see a path for Fossella to win if he goes down this road.  He does not have the Conservative Party line and at this point can not get it.  He has a trial date later this Fall in October for his DWI arrest.  It would take immense arrogance on his part to jump back in.  Since the Republican Party has been a joke in this race for months now I am not ruling it out.

stay tuned…

MN-01: The Tarrance Group for Brian Davis and the NRCC (9/17-18, likely voters, 8/17-18 in parens):

Tim Walz (D-inc): 50 (54)

Brian Davis (R): 32 (27)

Greg Mikkelson (I): 4 (4)

Undecided: 14 (16)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Kudos to Brian Davis for releasing an obviously non-rogered poll, as these numbers paint a pretty bleak portrait for the Republicans here. On the generic ballot, the DFL leads the GOP by 44-39, and McCain leads by 45-43. Lagging behind the generic ballot this badly, Davis would need a series of miracles in order to pull off an upset here.

NH-02: Public Opinion Strategies for Jennifer Horn and the NRCC (9/16-17, likely voters):

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 43

Jennifer Horn (R): 39

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Maybe I’m being a bit too kneejerk here, but I just flat-out refuse to believe these numbers. And even if they were not far off, with only $146K in the bank, Horn doesn’t have the kind of resources she needs to turn this D+2.7 district red.

WI-08: Public Opinion Strategies for John Gard (9/16-17, likely voters, July in parens):

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 46 (46)

John Gard (R): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I’m inclined to believe that this race is fairly close, but I don’t know if it’s this close. Still, Gard’s polls are all we’ve got on this race so far.

cross-posted at Bleeding Heartland

If you were a loyal Republican foot-soldier seeking re-election in a state that’s trending Democratic, where the Democratic presidential candidate has a commanding lead over your party’s nominee as well as a much bigger ground game in your own Congressional district, you might want to reinvent yourself.

Late last week, Tom Latham did just that in his first television commercial of this election cycle. You can view the ad at Latham’s campaign website. It focuses on a bill Latham introduced to address the nursing shortage in Iowa.

Judging from the content of this ad, Latham recognizes that 2008 will be a big Democratic year in Iowa.

Neither the commercial nor the campaign’s accompanying press release mention that Latham is a Republican. Instead, they note that he authored “bipartisan legislation” in a specific area.

Polls typically give Democrats an edge on handling health care and education. Even someone watching this ad with the sound turned down can see that Latham is portraying himself as sensitive to these issues. Here are the words that flash on the screen during the commercial:

Nursing Shortage (footage of ambulance with siren, nurse alongside patient on stretcher)

Iowa Faces Severe Nursing Shortage (hospital scenes)

Bipartisan Legislation (Latham sitting and writing)

Help Nurses Repay Education Loans (nurse with patients)

Tom Latham (as he talks with one of the nurses quoted in the ad)

In addition, Latham’s ad features three testimonials from nurses. One of them is “nurse practitioner Linda Upmeyer,” wearing a white nurse’s coat with a stethoscope around her neck, who says, “Tom has done a wonderful job of hearing the need and translating that into legislation.” Conveniently, the ad fails to identify Upmeyer as the Republican state representative from Iowa House district 12.  

The press release announcing Latham’s television ad is even more blatant about running away from the Republican label. It describes Latham as “bipartisan” twice and notes that he “teamed up with Wisconsin Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin to introduce this bill in the United States Congress.”

I never thought I’d see the day when the conservative Republican Latham would brag about working with Baldwin, who is openly gay and has one of the most progressive voting records in Congress. Latham’s voting record as a whole could hardly be more different from Baldwin’s.

Not only does Latham’s ad avoid mentioning his party affiliation, it seems designed to address the gender gap by having a female voice-over and three women nurses do almost all of the talking. The only male voice you hear is Latham’s at the very end, saying “I’m Tom Latham, and I approved this message.”

Democratic candidates tend to do better among women, and the disparity may be even greater this year in IA-04. Becky Greenwald is giving Iowans the chance to send a woman to Congress for the first time.

One clever feature of this ad is that it implies Latham has delivered for Iowa’s nurses, without mentioning whether the bill he authored has any chance of becoming law. The wording of the press release suggests that the bill has not advanced:

Latham teamed up with Iowa nursing and health care professionals through numerous roundtables around the state to listen to their unique perspective and input on what was needed. He then wrote legislation and teamed up with Wisconsin Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin to introduce the bill in the United States Congress.

You would think that someone who spent 14 years in Congress (12 of them as part of a Republican majority) would be able to point to some concrete achievement on behalf of nurses or in the area of health care.

Instead, the Latham campaign talks about his “trusted leadership” on the nursing shortage, when he has nothing to show for this “leadership” other than writing one bill that went nowhere.

By the way, Latham signaled last week that he is not willing to defend the totality of his record in a public forum. He declined an invitation from KCCI-TV and the Des Moines Register to debate Greenwald during prime-time television. Latham also refused invitations to debate in August.

In a debate, Latham might have to explain why he talks about helping nurses repay their student loans in his commercial, when he voted for enormous cuts to federal student loan programs in 2005 and 2006.

As a challenger, Greenwald has lower name recognition than Latham, and understandably used her first television ad to introduce herself to voters. With Latham avoiding debates and using skillful image construction to conceal his ineffectiveness, I believe Greenwald will need to run some television ads that spell out why she is seeking to replace “Iowa’s low-yield Congressman.”

UPDATE: The Greenwald campaign responded to this ad with a statement exposing Latham’s real record on health care.  

What is it with Bill Sali?

Here at the Swing State Project, we’ve followed his career closely ever since he first ran for Congress last cycle. Sali caught our attention with his extraordinary primary victory in 2006, chalking up a victory with an astounding 26% of the vote – this despite a major infusion of support from the Club for Growth. We thought we might have a real live one on our hands, a real nutter nobody liked. But just how disliked was he?

As it turns out, a whole hell of a lot. The Republican Speaker of the Idaho House said of Sali:

“That idiot is just an absolute idiot. He doesn’t have one ounce of empathy in his whole fricking body. And you can put that in the paper.”

The second-place finisher in the primary:

Today, in the Idaho Press-Tribune in Nampa, second-place finisher Robert Vasquez, a Canyon County commissioner, said he’d never vote for GOP primary victor Bill Sali because, “I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress.”

Idaho’s other representative, Mike Simpson:

Simpson then told Sali: “If you want to debate this, I’ll put the House at ease and we can go back into my office and I’ll throw you out the window.”

Simpson & Sali’s fellow legislators:

Simpson said he was irritated but had no intention of assaulting Sali. He added, however, that as House colleagues heard the story, many told him, “The third floor wasn’t high enough. You should have taken him up to the fourth floor.”

The man Sali sought to replace, now-Gov. Butch Otter:

“Bruce has been a great speaker of the House,” Otter said. “And as he told me, he learned everything that he knows from Mike Simpson. And that is why every time he has a bad day, he goes and beats the hell out of Bill Sali.”

And Bill Sali himself:

And that’s just his own party. The maniacs at the Club for Growth had to bail Sali out yet again in the general, and even Dick Cheney spent some time hustling for dollars and votes in this district, which gave fully 70% of its vote to George Bush. In the end, Sali won just 50-45 over a Democrat he out-spent by 50%.

The amazing thing is that the fun never stopped with Bill Sali. Sometimes, serious screwups who manage to fail upward to the United States House of Representatives just learn to shut up and keep a low profile. Not Sali – he’s way too colossal for that.

Six months into his term, Sali’s approval rating stood at an impressive 29-46. Things clearly hadn’t changed much a year later, when he squeaked through a primary against a guy who raised just $70K with only 57% of the vote. (I guess compared to his first primary, that looked downright awesome.)

He managed to continue his winning ways by supporting an insurgent challenge to Gov. Otter’s preferred state party chair. Meanwhile, he stopped paying his consultant’s bills, carrying a debt of $76,000 – no small sum in Idaho, and a dangerous fuck-you to other campaign vendors in such a tightly-knit political community.

It gets better. John Boehner, doubtless gritting his teeth, helped defile the English language like a good Inner Party member by adding Sali to the “Regain Our Majority Program.” Yes, I know, you can’t regain the majority by buttressing incumbents, but maybe Boehner just didn’t feel like printing up different stationery.

Sali repaid the gesture with classic brain fade accuity. When the time came to file second-quarter fundraising reports, his finance staff declared that the dog ate their laptop. James Hell made this fine .TXT catch:

I am unable to file the 2nd quarter 2008 FEC report, as FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the Sali for Congress data file.  I first attempted to upload a file to the FEC site on June 6. I again tried on June 9, using the new FEC software update, without success. I then sent FEC technical support a copy of the Sali for Congress FEC file. FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the file so that it may be uploaded. I am in regular contact with FEC technical support and the FEC analyst, in an effort to resolve this matter.

It took these clowns twenty-six days to figure out how to file their report (the law gives you 15), and even then it was still a shambles – just like the rest of Sali’s campaign. He opened an office in – I kid you not – the wrong congressional district (Idaho’s only got two). But the best was announced just recently: as a cornerstone of his fundraising plan, Bill Sali plans to hold yard sales to fill his campaign coffers. No word yet if Plan B is to rummage through the county dump for some discarded treasures – but I think we can assume that’s probably on the list.

Meanwhile, Sali has drawn some very high-quality opposition in the form of businessman Walt Minnick. Minnick has consolidated support throughout Idaho and has also outraised Sali by a considerable margin – over $350K.

He’s impressed the DCCC, too – not only have they added him to the Red to Blue program, they’ve reserved $350K in ad time in the district, which will go along way in this cheap media market. Panicked, the NRCC responded with a $500K reservation, but will they really be able to afford to spend the full amount? And you just know Tom Cole is grimacing at the thought of having to shell out cash to save this jerkwad’s sorry ass.

SSP has long felt that, in the rubric we use, an upset could not be ruled out in this seat, just thanks to Sali’s poor political skills. But he’s managed to make things a whole lot worse in his brief time in office. He really is the perfect fuckup. Combined with a top-notch Democratic candidate who has run a flawless campaign, polling showing a competitive contest, and an environment which (even post-Palin) is still hostile for Republican incumbents, we feel compelled to upgrade this race to “Lean Republican”. For an R+19 seat, it’s not a decision we undertake lightly, but it’s a decision we feel is supported by all the available evidence, and one we’re comfortable making.

You can find the Swing State Project’s complete list of ratings for competitive House races here.

Roll Call has commissioned SurveyUSA to conduct polls in Ohio’s top four congressional races (I wish they would’ve polled OH-07 also, but I’ll take what I can get), and they’ve just released the results. Let’s take a look (9/19-21, likely voters):

OH-01:

Steve Driehaus (D): 44

Steve Chabot (R-inc): 46

Other: 6

(MoE: ±3.9%)

OH-02:

Victoria Wulsin (D): 40

Jean Schmidt (R-inc) 48

Other: 10

(MoE: ±3.9%)

OH-15 (8/2-4 in parens):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47 (47)

Steve Stivers (R): 42 (44)

Don Eckhart (I): 5 (7)

Mark Noble (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

OH-16:

John Boccieri (D): 49

Kirk Schuring (R): 41

(MoE: ±4%)

Decent looking numbers for Mary Jo Kilroy and especially John Boccieri. It looks like the DCCC’s unanswered $850,000 spent in these two districts is making an impact.

Also looking good is Steve Driehaus, who could be poised to capitalize on Barack Obama’s organization in this district. The Cincinnati-based 1st CD is 28% African-American, and Driehaus’ hopes will rest in part on a strong turnout by these voters: if African-Americans make up only 26% of the vote on election day, Chabot’s lead grows to 47-44, but if the black turnout pushes to 30%, the race is tied at 45-45.

Roll Call also polled the Presidential race in three of the four districts (why they left off the extremely swingin’ OH-15, I have no idea):

• OH-01: Obama 52%, McCain 43% (Kerry 49%, Bush 51%)
  

• OH-02: Obama 39%, McCain 58% (Kerry 36%, Bush 64%)
  

• OH-16: Obama 46%, McCain 48% (Kerry 46%, Bush 54%)

Interesting that we’re seeing a sizable Obama improvement in these three CD-based polls, but most of the recent statewide polling shows McCain with a small edge. Vic Wulsin’s gonna have a tough time leaping over that red wall, but we can take heart in that Mean Jean is still clearly damaged goods, as she lags behind McCain by a full 10%. A conservative-leaning independent, businessman David Kirkorian, is also in the race and was recently endorsed by the Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police. He could be a factor in November.