Damn, this is great news. Benenson Strategy Group for Jeff Merkley (9/7-9, likely voters, August in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 43 (38)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (47)
Dave Brownlow (C): 6 (4)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
The full polling memo is below the fold, and do check it out if you like to read about good news. As you can see from Smith’s job approval ratings, he’s in a world of trouble: 70% of undecideds give him a negative job approval rating!
The National Nurses Movement, and healthcare activists across the country, believe in Andrea Miller. Her message of guaranteed healthcare, as represented by HR 676, is just what this country needs–and just what she needs to beat out-of-touch Republican J. Randy Forbes in Virginia’s 4th District.
That’s why she’s been named this week’s Healthcare Hero. The Healthcare Heroes are nominated by the National Nurses Organizing Committee, California Nurses Association, and Leadership Conference on Guaranteed Healthcare to honor and bring attention to Congressional candidates who commit to fight for–and win–genuine healthcare reform.
More about Andrea below…but what she really needs to beat Forbes is your financial support. Can you help out?
As Donna Smith wrote on the Guaranteed Healthcare blog…
She’s not your average, politically connected candidate, and she has unconventional, bold ideas for the people of her district and for the nation. Among the issues most critical to Andrea Miller is that of single payer healthcare reform. She minces no words, pulls no punches and wastes no time letting folks know she’s all about the best way to make sure all Americans have healthcare — through single payer legislation like HR676.
Andrea is the mother of two grown children, and she understands that being a responsible parent means being a responsible citizen as she listens to families in the district talk about everything from economic hardships to energy concerns and beyond.
Though Virgina’s 4th Congressional District is currently represented by a conservative Republican, Andrea says, “This race is winnable. From people I’ve met walking door-to-door to the folks I met at county fairs, people are ready for change.”
But along with some momentum from the Obama campaign’s efforts to register young voters, Andrea is working hard to reach all the areas of a district that takes two-and-a-half hours to drive end-to-end and is filled with voters as diverse as any district in the nation.
We will highlight the stories of these healthcare heroes, and work to get them the attention and support they need. It’s not always easy to run in the face of insurance companies and a sold-out political culture…but it is smart. Poll after poll shows the American people are open to an expanded and improved Medicare for All, and are desperate for the kind of solutions that will improve care while saving money.
Thank you Andrea!
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/8-10, likely voters, 7/21-23):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 43 (44)
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48 (45)
(MoE: ±4%)
The last poll we’ve seen from this race (by Rasmussen), showed Wicker leading by nine, so this is a better margin all around.
Musgrove wins black voters by 75-7, and loses whites by 23-73. If Musgrove can consolidate black support to the 90% mark and pull in at least 25% of the white vote, he can win. This one will be tough, but it’s still doable.
That said, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and his gang of crumb-bums are going full-steam ahead on their scheme to move this race to the very bottom of the statewide ballot, obscuring the race from first-time voters who might not mark up their ballots from top to bottom. Barbour is a special kind of cynical scum to pull this kind of move.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
Harstad Strategic Research for Mark Udall (9/7-9, likely voters):
Mark Udall (D): 45
Bob Schaffer (R): 34
Bob Kinsey (G): 2
Doug Campbell (C): 3
(MoE: ±3.6%)
In response to the NRSC’s internal from last week showing a one-point race for the open Senate seat in Colorado, the Udall camp releases their own internal showing an 11-point gap at the height of the GOP post-convention bounce. This poll is of mild interest in that it’s the first poll I can think of that has polled the effect of third-party candidates on the race (the Green and the Constitution Party guy seem to cancel each other out).
Rasmussen (9/9, likely voters):
Larry LaRocco (D): 30
Jim Risch (R): 58
(MoE: ±4.0%)
In other news from the Mountain West, Jim Risch has a big lead on Larry LaRocco in Rasmussen’s first poll of the open Senate seat race in Idaho. This poll is missing one key element, though: self-funding independent Rex Rammell, who’s charging hard at Risch’s right flank. If this is really where the race is, though, it doesn’t look like the Rammell effect will have much impact on the bottom line.
It may be worth noting that the uncharismatic and campaigning-averse Risch inspires a large degree of “meh” among the sample: he has a 62% favorable rating, but 41% of that is only “somewhat favorable.”
Somebody’s feeling confident over at the DCCC: hot on the heels of yesterday’s addition of NY-26 surprise primary winner Alice Kryzan to their Red to Blue program (the DCCC’s fundraising stamp of approval), they’ve promoted eight more candidates today.
FL-08 Alan Grayson
FL-18 Annette Taddeo
KY-02 David Boswell
NC-10 Dan Johnson
NE-02 Jim Esch
OH-07 Sharen Neuhardt
PA-15 Sam Bennett
TX-07 Michael Skelly
Of these candidates, Taddeo, Boswell, Johnson, Bennett, and Skelly all got promoted from the DCCC’s Emerging Races list. Grayson is the winner of the recent FL-08 primary, and Esch and Neuhardt have leapfrogged their way onto the list.
UPDATE (James): The DCCC has also added a few more candidates to its list of “Emerging Races”:
IA-04: Becky Greenwald
IL-13: Scott Harper
LA-01: Jim Harlan
SC-01: Linda Ketner
TX-10: Larry Joe Doherty
The following is my look at the races in Oregon this fall, from statewide down to state legislative and excluding ballot measures. Unlike my previous updates, I rank each race within its category, rather than by district number.
Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://loadedorygun.net/showDi…
Data Sources:
The Most Recent Voter Registration Data is at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/jul08.pdf
Candidate information comes from ORESTAR: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/jsp/CEMainPage.jsp?CONTENT_PAGE=cf/CFSearchPage.jsp
The Statewide Layout:
Total Registered Voters: About 2.05 Million.
Democrats: 42% (+210k vs. Republicans)
Republicans: 33%.
Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.
Key:
Size of Districts:
State House: Aprox. 55k.
State Senate: Aprox. 110k.
The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party. All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.
Party Key:
D=Democratic
R=Republican
G=Pacific Green
C=Constitution
L=Libertarian
I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).
N=Unaffiliated, otherwise known as Independents.
P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader’s Oregon party).
Ratings:
Tossup-Margin less than 3%.
Lean-3-10% margin.
Likely-11-20% margin.
Safe-More than 20% margin.
Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder. State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement. For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).\
Rankings:
Within each category, the highest rated seat is the one considered closest. E.g. the highest rate seat in the tossup category is considered the most of a “tossup”.
Statewide Races:
US President
Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).
Summary: Its September now and I have yet to see any ads by either campaign. However, the Obama folks are clearly on the ground in this state and McCain has just as clearly made now effort. Count 7 EVs for the Big O, the only question is the margin.
Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.
US Senate
Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D) and David Brownlow (C).
Summary: Smith, the DSCC and Merkley are busy slinging mostly negative ads at each other. In fact, only Merkley is really running any positive ads at this point as Smith’s only positive ad is an issue ad on health care sponsored by a major business group. This race has not been polled for a while so I would guess Smith is still sightly ahead. Yet, the dynamics of this state make this race a tossup.
Rating: Tossup.
Secretary of State
Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R) and Seth Allan Wooley (G).
Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer. Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate. On an early appearance on Lars Larson’s talk radio program (he’s a well known conservative for those who don’t know), he seemed unaware of much of what the SOS actually does.
Rating: Likely to Safe Brown.
Attorney General
John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.
State Treasurer
Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)
Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light. Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here. Not to mention Alley’s own problems as well (he ran his company into the ground).
Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.
Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)
Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-inc.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D) and Losing CD1 Candidate Mark Welzycko (D).
Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics.
Rating: Safe Avakian.
Congressional Races:
Safe Races:
1st-District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble. If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.
2nd-District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.
3rd-District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) faces only minor party opposition.
Likely Races:
1st-District 1: Wu (D-inc) should have little trouble with Joel Haugen abandoning the Republcian party to run as a member of the Independent Party. The Republicans do not have a candidate.
Lean Races:
1st and only-District 5
Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).
Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.
Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country. Then three things happened. First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one. Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion. This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace. Then, to add to Erickson’s pain came the discovery that he had made a trip to Cuba that appears to be nothing more than a glorified vacation. Schrader just went on the air and Erickson doesn’t appear to be contesting this one too much. Still, he can self-finance enough that this race can’t be upgraded for the Ds.
Rating: Leans Schrader.
Oregon Legislature:
Note: Races within the “Safe” category are not ranked.
Oregon Senate
Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.
Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).
Safe Races:
1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).
2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).
5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).
14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).
18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).
21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).
22 (Portland)-Carter (D).
23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.
25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D).
28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).
29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).
30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).
Lean Races:
1st-27 (Bend)
Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).
Registration: R+3k
Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican). That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.
Outlook: Leans Telfer.
2nd-9 (Stayton)
Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).
Registration: R+4k.
Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs. Girod still has the edge though.
Outlook: Leans Girod.
3rd-12 (McMinnville)
Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).
Registration: R+2.5k
Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat. This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.
Outlook: Leans Boquist.
Oregon House:
Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.
Projected Composition: 32 D, 20 R, 8 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.
The following seats are rated either safe or likely:
1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).
2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).
3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).
4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).
5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).
8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).
10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.
11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).
12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).
13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).
14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).
16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).
21 (Salem)-Clem (D).
25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).
27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).
28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).
29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).
31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).
32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).
33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).
34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).
35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).
36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).
38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).
40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).
41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).
42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).
43 (Portland)-Shields (D).
44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).
45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).
46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).
47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).
48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).
53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).
55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).
56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).
57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).
58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).
60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).
Lean Races:
1st-26 (Wilsonville)
Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).
Registration: R+2k
Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap. In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before. The Repubs were panicked enough that incumbent Jerry Krummel resigned so that Wingard could go in as the “incumbent”. Wingard also raised a few eyebrows when he sent out a “legislative update” mere days after taking office, despite the fact that he had not yet voted on a single bill or even attended a committee hearing (h/t to Loaded O for this: Wingard: I Can Haz Spend Ur Money, C?). My heart tells me this will be close but my head tells me that Wingard still has a slight edge.
Outlook: Leans Wingard.
2nd-19 (Salem)
Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).
Registration: R+ less than 1k
Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past. Cameron is vulnerable, especially to a good candidate such as Day. Interesting fact, Cameron runs the cafeteria that operates in the basement of the Oregon Capitol that I ate in probably three times a week during the 2005 session. Let’s just say, his food is much better than he is as a legislator but this is still a historically R-leaning district so he has the edge.
Outlook: Leans Cameron.
3rd-49 (Gresham)
Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).
Registration: D+4.5k
Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district. Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced. They’re wrong, he’s a great candidate, especially with the youth voter empowerment machine known as the Oregon Bus Project (http://busproject.org/) on his side. With Mannix out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district, if they vote, which they did not in 2006.
Outlook: Leans Kahl.
4th-30 (Hillsboro)
Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).
Registration: D+2k
Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here. The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago. It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards survived some of the most vicious smears of any candidate in 2006 and still won to give him a slight edge. This is by far the best Republican chance for a pickup though.
Outlook: Leans Edwards.
5th-23 (Dallas)
Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).
Registration: R+2k
Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books. That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.
Outlook: Leans Thompson.
6th-18 (Silverton)
Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D/I).
Registration: R+2.2k
Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here. This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy. If the Repubs lose this district, it will have been a big night.
Outlook: Leans Gilliam.
7th-59 (The Dalles)
Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).
Registration: R+1k
Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup. However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.
Outlook: Leans Huffman.
8th-15 (Albany)
Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).
Registration: D and R even
Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive. Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there. Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.
Outlook: Leans Olson.
9th-17 (Scio)
Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).
Registration: R+2k
Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset. Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here. Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.
Outlook: Leans Sprenger.
10th-9 (Coos Bay)
Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).
Registration: D+3k
Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one. Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.
Outlook: Leans Roblan.
11th-6 (Medford)
Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).
Registration: R+3k
Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win. My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.
Outlook: Leans Esquivel.
12th-7 (Roseburg)
Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).
Registration: R+1.4k
Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened. This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge. Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here. He also has a huge cash edge as the minority leader from the OR House.
Outlook: Leans Hanna.
13th-22 (Woodburn)
Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).
Registration: D+2k
Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn. However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily. Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.
Outlook: Leans Komp.
Tossup Races:
1st-39 (Canby)
Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).
Registration: D+1k
Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call. Both candidates are well known and respected in the community. This one should be very close.
Outlook: Tossup.
2nd-52 (Corbett)
Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).
Registration: D+2k
Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland. This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch. If I had to guess, I’d give a very slight edge to VanOrman right now.
Outlook: Tossup.
3rd-54 (Bend)
Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).
Registration: D+1.5k
Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years thanks largely to an influx of California retirees. This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.
Outlook: Tossup.
4th-50 (Fairview)
Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).
Registration: D+3k
Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery. He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.
Outlook: Tossup.
5th-51 (Clackamas)
Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).
Registration: D+1k
Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores. Barton has as good a chance as anyone and has huge financial backing. I’m moving this race to tossup for that reason alone.
Outlook: Tossup.
6th-20 (Independence/Monmouth)
Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).
Registration: D+1k
Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy. She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.
Outlook: Tossup.
7th-37 (West Linn)
Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).
Registration: D+ less than 1k.
Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area. Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has a very slight D edge.
Outlook: Tossup.
8th-24 (McMinnville)
Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).
Registration: D and R even.
Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006. If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.
Outlook: Tossup.
Well that’s it, let me know what you think.
Commemorating September 11
State Sen. John Boccieri released the following statement today on the seventh anniversary of the terrorists attacks of September 11, 2001:
“After seven years, the shock of September 11 is still with us, but America’s resolve is stronger than ever. We will never forget our brothers and sisters who lost their lives that day, or the selflessness of the first responders and everyday heroes who came to their aid – many of whom made the ultimate sacrifice themselves.
In the past seven years, Americans have come to honor those killed in the attacks by giving of ourselves for the strength of our nation. Today we express our gratitude to all who have answered the call to serve. Through service, we cherish the memory and preserve the spirit of those who were taken from us.”
To commemorate the heroism and sacrifice of America’s first responders today, Boccieri will present Canton firefighters with a United States flag flown into Iraq during a Combat Mission in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
SurveyUSA (9/7-9, likely voters, 7/27-29 in parens):
Darcy Burner (D): 44 (44)
Dave Reichert (R-inc): 54 (50)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
A nice bump for Reichert, but what accounts for it? Given SUSA’s crosstabs gone haywire in North Carolina, could we be seeing something similar in these results — sparked in part, perhaps, by the Republican convention? Not that I can tell. The age, ethnicity, and party affiliation sample breakdowns are very similar to SUSA’s July poll, and this most recent poll actually sees a slight uptick in female voters — a group that breaks narrowly for Burner. Male voters, on the other hand, are flocking to Sheriff Dave by a wide 61-38 margin.
The most funky portion of the crosstabs? Voters under 35 support Reichert over Burner by a 16-point margin. Young voters going ga-ga for Republican incumbents and candidates is something we’ve seen quite often in many SUSA polls (especially ones from Minnesota), so it seems reasonable to find flaws with their voter screen here.
On another note, over at Pollster.com, Momentum Analysis’ Margie Omero has a blog post well worth reading on Roll Call’s recent controversial batch of SurveyUSA polls. I don’t mean to dump on SUSA all of a sudden — overall, I find that they produce quality work — but her critique is well worth considering. I would also like to draw special attention to one paragraph in particular:
First, there’s more to judging survey quality than whether it was conducted internally or by an independent third party. But second, and perhaps more important, Congressional handicappers should rely on more than a single poll’s results to judge a race’s viability.
Well said. Too often we see people reflexively dismiss internal polling, as if the very nature of a partisan-commissioned poll deems the whole project untrustworthy. And it’s also been too easy for some people to stake their entire analysis of a race on a single poll without attempting to get a more holistic sense of the dynamics of that particular contest.
SSP currently rates WA-08 as a Tossup.
Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.
Today, a bombshell article in The New Republic (TNR) exposed what many of us thought to be true?that Chris Smith’s misguided priorities go far deeper than his twenty-two attempts to ban the common, everyday birth control pill.
Thanks to new investigative reporting by TNR’s James Kirchick, we now know that Chris Smith is a founding member of the radical right. A reporter at TNR, Kirchick is the author of a highly-regarded article on Ron Paul’s ties to segregationists; that article changed the national narrative on Paul earlier this year.
Kirchick’s new article reveals that Chris Smith has longstanding ties to religious-right hate groups; that he sat on the board of advisers of a pro-racial segregation organization in the 1980s; that he authored legislation that would bar gays and lesbians from working openly as nurses, doctors, first responders, federal employees or federal contractors; and that he played a role in a vicious disinformation campaign about HIV/AIDS that demonized gays and lesbians as “serial killers.” The article also reveals that Smith concealed campaign contributions from at least two hard-line, pro-segregation groups.
The New Republic only scratched surface of Smith’s bigotry. Following up on TNR’s reporting, this morning, the Zeitz campaign discovered Chris Smith not only worked with segregationists; he voted with them. In 1981, Chris Smith voted to restore non-profit status to segregated private schools [HR 4121, 7/30/81] that were created as a mechanism for white Southerners to avoid the full implications of the Supreme Court’s decision in Brown v. Board of Education.
The Zeitz for Congress campaign also obtained a copy of Chris Smith’s early college writings. In an article dated 1973, Smith accused gays and lesbians of being in league with “the Anti-Christ”:
In Smith’s words:
“We can live in harmony with His [God’s] spiritual laws and be like the man, as Christ said, who built on an undestructable [sic] rock, or we can live in disharmony with the Anti-Christ; the devil, not the laughable, fiery and character with horns, but the evil one often spoken of by Jesus and he like the man who built his life on sand which eroded and eventually fell. God wants us happy; His laws are for our welfare, our protection, not Sin!”
Chris Smith’s bigotry goes beyond his early career. In the 1990s, Smith introduced legislation that would force any company or public entity that receives federal funds to fire openly gay employees. The legislation would deny gays and lesbians the right to work as teachers, doctors, nurses, first responders, federal contractors, or state and federal workers. It might even deny basic rights like student loans to gay college students.
What we’ve learned today:
Chris Smith is a founding member of the Religious Right, having sat on the advisory board of the Christian Voice. The Christian Voice strongly supported racially segregated private schools in the South and worked closely with Jerry Falwell.
Chris Smith voted to support segregation by allowing all-white private schools (which were created after forced-desegregation) to remain segregated.
Chris Smith failed to abide by FEC rules and report contributions from openly racist, misogynistic, and homophobic groups on the radical right.
Chris Smith introduced legislation in the 1990s to mandate that the government (or any recipients of federal funds, like local school district, fire departments, police departments and federal contractors) fire any openly gay employees. Openly gay individuals would have been barred from any receipt of federal funds such as school loans, food stamps or unemployment benefits.
“Chris Smith is an extremist,” said Steven D’Amico, Zeitz for Congress campaign manager. “There is nothing moderate about racial segregation. There is nothing moderate about denying jobs and education to millions of gay Americans. There is nothing moderate about taking away the right to use common, everyday birth control. These are unacceptable positions that are out of step with basic human decency.”
I’m asking you to do a couple of things here. Please make a contribution. Also, if you’re in or near the district, please contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com to volunteer.
We can win this race, and we need to do it in order to show New Jersey and the country that this kind of extremism is immoral and unacceptable, and voters will hold such extremists accountable.
Thanks so much.
Last cycle, the Secretary of State Project did tremendous work in raising money and awareness for several contested SoS races across the country. These unheralded but crucial state-level office-holders are crucial for protecting the voting franchise. Corrupt Republicans like Ken Blackwell in Ohioa and Katherine Harris in Florida have used their powers for evil; keeping these offices in Democratic hands is a vital mission.
So I’m very pleased to see that the SoS Project is once again in effect, raising money for four races this year:
There are two states we are targeting with open races for Secretary of State in 2008: Oregon and West Virginia. In Oregon, Democrat Kate Brown is running against GOP nominee Rick Dancer. In West Virginia, Natalie Tennant won the Democratic primary on May 13, despite being outspent 6 to 1 by her competitor. She is now fighting for the seat currently occupied by Betty Ireland, a partisan Republican who is currently working hard to oppose Election Day Registration.
In Montana, Democrat Linda McCulloch is trying to unseat ultra-conservative Brad Johnson. Johnson has been involved in an attempt by conservatives to rollback the state’s Election Day Registration laws.
We are also working to protect the seat of a progressive Secretary of State in the key battleground state of Missouri. Democrat Robin Carnahan is a strong reformer who should win reelection. But given the importance of a fair election in Missouri, we need to be vigilant in this state.
They’re also looking further downballot, as well:
Not all the action is happening at the state level. This year, the Secretary of State Project will also help elect reform-minded Democrats to key county-level posts in battleground states. A number of stark examples from 2004 and 2000, like Cuyahoga Co. in Ohio and Broward Co. in Florida, prove that manipulative county-level elections officials can exert a tremendous amount of influence over their results. Removing Republican operatives in three or four key counties could have a profound effect on the election. County-level targeting will be announced soon.
If you’d like to help out the Secretary of State Project, you can find their ActBlue page here.