Swing State Project

Races to Watch:

Today’s ratings changes:

AL-02 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

Despite all the hype surrounding the DCCC’s recruitment of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, we have until now been skeptical of Bright’s ability to seal the deal in this conservative R+13.2 district. No longer.

Republicans emerged from their primary with deep divisions – divisions that Bright is now capitalizing on, as most recently evidenced by his endorsement from the Republican mayor of Dothan, the second-largest population center of the district. With two recent polls showing Bright leading by 10 points, the Republicans can no longer claim a clear edge here.

AL-03 (Rogers): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

This race is certainly still a long shot, but Alabama’s 3rd District was drawn to elect a Democrat, and it almost did so in 2002. GOP Rep. Mike Rogers has held this district since then with ease, but attorney Josh Segall’s fundraising (he’s raised $521K since starting his campaign earlier this year) and the district’s demographics can’t be ignored.

CO-04 (Musgrave): Lean Republican to Tossup

All is not well in Musgraveland. A divisive reputation and years of being pounded by negative third-party ads seems to have taken a heavy toll on GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave’s political health. The two most recent polls of this race have shown the incumbent trailing Democrat Betsy Markey by seven points in this Dem-trending R+8.4 district (the SUSA poll showed the presidential race nearly tied). The NRCC’s decision to reserve a whopping $1.2 million in ad time for this district is quite telling, too. A tossup this is.

MI-07 (Walberg): Lean Republican to Tossup

Democrat Mark Schauer, a state senator, is a proven vote-getter in the conservative-leaning Battle Creek area, but his campaign against frosh GOP weirdo Tim Walberg has yet to engage fully. However, the cold hard reality of the numbers are catching up to Walberg — a recent EPIC-MRA poll shows his lead shrinking to a mere three points, while his job approval rating is in the dumps. With voters clearly frustrated with the status quo in Michigan, Walberg’s political fate is very much up in the air.

NH-02 (Hodes): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Under the rubric we use to rate races at SSP, a race in the “likely” column is one where an upset cannot be completely, entirely ruled out. We’re pretty sure that we can rule one out in New Hampshire’s 2nd District. Democrat Paul Hodes has by all accounts performed well in his first term in office, and all the polls we’ve seen confirm this. Hodes’ Republican challengers are a sorry lot, and are squandering their meager resources on a meaningless and mostly annoying primary. The eventual GOP victor does not stand a ghost of a chance against Hodes in November in this Dem-trending district.

NY-13 (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

It’s hard to believe, but the GOP’s chances of retaining this Staten Island-based district get worse and worse by the week. The only real candidate that the GOP could find, former state Assemblyman Robert Straniere, is both hated and unloved. And it shows in his fundraising, with only a paltry $15,000 raised for his campaign so far. Furthermore, his primary against physician Jamshad Wyne has taken a turn for the ugly and racist. The cherry on top? Straniere admits that he can’t even vote for himself in the primary, as he lives in Manhattan — very much a game killer in the parochial nature of Staten Island politics. Meanwhile, Democrat Mike McMahon continues to steamroll in fundraising.

NY-26 (Open): Tossup to Lean Republican

We don’t enjoy making this call, but it’s hard to deny that Democrats have engaged in a damaging and resource-draining primary here between nutjob billionaire Jack Davis, Iraq vet Jon Powers, and attorney Alice Kryzan. Davis, in particular, has leveled some damaging accusations against Powers’ charity work on behalf of Iraqi children that continue to cause unwanted headaches for his campaign. Moreover, Davis himself is crazy as fuck, and there’s a very real chance that he could win the primary here due to his massive spending and name ID advantage from two previous campaigns. If so, we may be looking at a Likely R race against the relatively noncontroversial (so far) and well-funded Republican businessman Chris Lee.

If this winds up being a Powers-Lee race, this could return to tossup state at some point, especially if the DCCC brings its considerable resources to bear and if the NRCC can’t follow suit.

PA-03 (English): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

The GOP’s poll numbers in this R+1.6 district must be atrocious, because incumbent Phil English has clearly hit the panic button with a summer full of defensive campaign ads, and the NRCC itself has set aside over $800K in ad time to attack Democratic candidate Kathy Dahlkemper. Does that sound like behavior that merits a “Likely Republican” rating to you? Yeah, me neither.

Primary day in New Hampshire, New York, Minnesota and Wisconsin (as well as Delaware, Rhode Island, and Vermont) is on September 9th, and midnight tonight is the deadline for congressional candidates to file their fundraising reports with the FEC. We’re rounding up all the numbers as they come in in the handy chart below. All numbers are in thousands, and cover the period of July 1st through August 20th:

We’ll fill in the blanks in real time — as best we can.

Special note: look at how pathetic Robert Straniere is in NY-13. $15K raised for his campaign, total? This guy is truly hated and unloved in Staten Island. What a D-grade sadsack loser of a candidate for the GOP.

Here’s a great new (and very timely) ad from Dan Seals:

Mark Kirk accuses me of supporting the “Obama agenda.”

Well, you bet I do.

Nicely done.

Obama-Biden: The Change We Need

McCain picking Romney: The Spare Change They Need

Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney makes a big score:

Stockton’s Republican mayor, Ed Chavez, is crossing party lines to endorse the re-election bid of U.S. Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton).

McNerney’s campaign announced Chavez’s endorsement Thursday, with Chavez saying the congressman has been a consistent presence across the district since he was elected two years ago.

“I have been impressed with what Congressman McNerney has done in his short tenure in office.  He’s back in California every weekend – in fact, it’s nearly impossible to spend a Saturday in Stockton without running into him,” Chavez said in a press release from McNerney’s campaign.

Stockton is the hometown of GOP candidate Dean Andal, a former state Assemblyman. While many Beltway progs were hyping McNerney as a “one-term wonder” after his 2006 win, his chances of re-election are looking brighter by the day.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Well, for starters it isn’t Lieberman (sure he would have taken Jewish voters from Democrats, yet he couldn’t even win Connecticut).  It’s also not Huckabee, while he certainly had appeal with Southern conservatives, Huckabee never showed a strong detail to the important issues.

Let’s break it down by who is least likely to most likely from the remaining three competitors:

3. Gov. Pawlenty – Sure he was Governor when a major bridge collapsed.  Remember it’s tax cuts for the wealthy over repairing infrastructure.  He also would be a weak debater against Biden.  Young and youthful indeed, yet his credentials are not that strong.

2. Millionaire Mitt – He never wanted to be second (he wanted to be first).  Mitty brings a lot of challenges.  First, he would overshadow McCain at times.  Second, he owns an equal number of properties as McCain, and finally, if McCain is using Clinton’s words against Obama, then by selecting Romney he sets up an even exchange for Democrats.  Sorry Mitt, not this time.  Probably not NEVER.

1. Tom Ridge – The fact that McCain is holding his announcement in Dayton and suburban Pittsburgh makes it highly likely that Ridge is the candidate.  Ridge was a former congressman, governor, and Homeland Security Secretary.  He would be a much stronger debater against Biden, unlike the previous two.  Whether or not Ridge helps McCain in Pennsylvania remains to be seen.  Pennsylvania can be broken down by the following:

Pittsburgh (city) – Obama

Pittsburgh (suburbs) – McCain

Erie – McCain (with Ridge)

Warren – McCain

Altoona – McCain

Johnstown – McCain

State College – Obama

Harrisburg (city) – Obama

Harrisburg (suburbs) – McCain

Lebanon – McCain

Lancaster (city) – Obama

Lancaster (suburbs) – McCain

York (city) – 50/50 Split

York (suburbs) – McCain

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre – McCain

Allentown/Bethlehem – Obama

Williamsport – McCain

Reading – Obama

Philadelphia (city) – Obama

Philadelphia (suburbs) – Obama

**Most votes would come from Obama strongholds versus McCain strongholds, thereby Obama still leads.  Ridge only brings one area realistically into McCain’s column – Erie, Ridge’s hometown.

Honorable mentions, but no reward this year:

Guiliani – Too much baggage.  Starting with his divorce from his wife and including moving in with a gay couple following the divorce (enough to anger religious fanatics).

Portman – Serving in the Bush administration is a liability in itself, regardless of the capacity.  Unlike Ridge, who left early and was not in the budget office, Portman was in office when Bush’s popularity plumetted and he helped draft the Bush budgets.

Greg Smith and Associates (8/18-22, likely voters):

Larry LaRocco (D): 29

Jim Risch (R): 41

Rex Rammell (I): 3

(MoE: ±4.0%)

This pretty much confirms Research 2000‘s poll of this race for the Great Orange Satan, which pegged the race at 42-32, with Republican-turned-Independent Rammell picking up five points. At this point, the disgruntled rancher doesn’t appear to be much of a factor.

It seems telling that Risch can’t soar much above 40% in a state that Bush won twice with 67% and 69%, respectively. However, it’s not going to be incredibly difficult for him to push what are undoubtedly conservative-leaning undecideds onto his side of the fence come election day.

Still, Risch’s continued mediocrity makes this race worth keeping an eye on.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/24-26, likely voters):

Raul Martinez (D): 48

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Martinez, the former mayor of Hialeah, is a larger than life but at times somewhat controversial figure in the Miami area. He was always expected to give Diaz-Balart the stiffest challenge of his political life in this R+6.2 district, but seeing him ahead in a poll this early is fairly jolting. Another poll from Bendixen earlier this summer showed Diaz-Balart leading, but only by four points.

There’s no doubt that South Florida is changing for the better. Since 2006, Democrats have cut a 28,000 voter registration deficit in the 21st CD to a lead of only 15,000 for the GOP. And the numbers are getting bluer by the month. Similar trends are evident in FL-18 and FL-25, where progressive fighters Annette Taddeo and Joe Garcia are waging strong campaigns against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart, respectively.

Need more evidence that the Miami area is trending Dem? Just check out the Presidential numbers — despite this being a district that Bush carried by 14 points in 2004 and one that is part of the backbone of the GOP’s statewide foundation, Barack Obama and John McCain are tied at 48% each in the district. That is some seriously alarming news for the GOP, both for this election and for the long-term.

In the diaries, Andy Dufresne makes a nice catch — if GOP Rep. Don Young loses his primary bid to Sean Parnell, he won’t rule out an Independent run in November:

Asked if he would consider running as an Independent if he lost the primary, Young said he hadn’t considered it.

“It’s a good idea; I might,” he said. “But I don’t expect him to win the primary.”

Now, the next logical question is: Is it possible for Young to get on the ballot as an Indie?

A quick legal analysis of Alaska electoral statutes by the Law Offices of Crumb & Bum, LLC, tells us that the only path for Young would be to wage a write-in campaign. The deadline for filing petitions to get on the ballot was primary day, so the write-in option is really Young’s only choice:

If a candidate does not appear on the primary election ballot or is not successful in advancing to the general election and wishes to be a candidate in the general election, the candidate may file as a write-in candidate.

However, all of this may be moot, as Young still holds a 152-vote lead with one precinct — but several thousand absentee and questioned ballots — outstanding.

Andy cranks it up a notch by looking at the district-by-district returns in Alaska, and finds that Young has actually performed slightly better among the absentee ballots counted so far than he has in the overall vote. That seems to be a good sign that the outstanding absentee ballots will help The Donald pad his preciously narrow margin.

We still likely won’t have a final answer for another couple of weeks, which is fantastic news for Ethan Berkowitz. According to Roll Call, the state will take another 10 to 15 days to count absentee and provisional ballots, and a winner will be certified on Sept. 17th or 18th. But that’s not all:

If the final difference between the two candidates is less than a half percentage point, a defeated candidate or 10 voters can petition a recount with the state footing the bill. If the difference between Parnell and Young is more than a half percentage point, a recount could be implemented at their own expense to the tune of about $15,000.

The recount would take an additional three to five days, pushing the GOP tension and uncertainty all the way into late September.

Stuart Rothenberg on Rabbi Dennis Shulman, running for Congress against GOP Rep. Scott Garrett in New Jersey:

Finally, at times, the rabbi seems very un-rabbi-like. He is quoted as using the “s” word very matter-of-factly in Toobin’s piece and using the “b.s.” word in Time. I expect a lot of folks in the district may wonder about that.

And Shulman’s rhetoric seems more like a Democratic insider than a man of the cloth, such as his comment that Garrett is “in the pocket of Big Oil” and that the runup in energy prices “is the direct result of Big Oil and their cronies like Scott Garrett blocking sound energy policy for years.”

This is as ugly as it is wrong. In his column, Rothenberg criticizes a New Yorker profile of Shulman by Jeff Toobin, saying that the author’s “forte is simply not politics.” Yet when did Rothenberg appoint himself an expert on religion?

Indeed, reform Judaism – the sort practiced by Shulman – embraces a diverse body of beliefs, styles and personal choices. It is Shulman’s congregants – not Beltway blowhards – who determine what standards their clergymen ought to meet, and whether they meet them. As a practicing Jew myself, the thought of a smug DC pundit who isn’t even a member of my synagogue proclaiming my rabbi spiritually unfit offends me to no end – especially when the “sin” in question is a violation of some ossified standard of bipartisan gentility that never actually existed in the first place.

In fact, in pluralistic America, I’d expect all those who respect the rights of others to observe their religion as they see fit to be displeased about remarks like this. They have no place in our politics or our houses of worship. And as I say, this kind of statement isn’t just offensive, it doesn’t even pass muster as good political analysis. Case in point: While I’m sure some Catholics didn’t think Fr. Robert Drinan – who beat a 28-year incumbent on an anti-Vietnam War platform and supported abortion rights throughout his career – “acted like a priest,” that didn’t stop him from winning five terms as a Congressman in Massachusetts. He only stepped down because the Pope – not his constituents – forced him to.

If Rothenberg wants to critique Shulman on the merits, fine. But leave religion out of it. Period.