Swing State Project

RESULTS: AP (House) | AP (Senate) | AK Division of Elections | ADN.com

12:06PM: I’m awake and alive. Let’s keep this party going over in thread #3.

9:59AM (David): Wow. With 97.9% of all precincts counting, Don Young has taken a 145-vote lead. Let’s pray it holds.

6:27AM: Alright, one more update. Parnell’s lead has shrunk to 142 votes with 89% reporting.

6:04AM: My friends, I am zonked. We’ll sort this mess out in the morning. Goodnight, all!

5:51AM: With just under 86% of precincts reporting, Young has cut the deficit to just 213 votes. In other news, I can’t believe I’m still awake.

5:17AM: Young has inched back a bit closer, trailing Parnell by 263 votes with 84% counted. They don’t come any closer than this.

4:53AM: Parnell gains back a bit of precious ground — he’s now up by 367 votes with 76% counted.

4:47AM: Well, things seem to have screeched to a stop, so I wouldn’t blame anyone for deciding to hit the hay right now. I’m going to give this a few more minutes, myself.

4:28AM: If there was any doubt, just ask the locals:

Most of the uncounted precincts are in rural Alaska villages, where Young has traditionally enjoyed strong support.

4:20AM: Our back of the cocktail napkin analysis reveals that Young will have to run roughly 0.7% better in the two-candidate vote in the outstanding precincts in order to win. Entirely doable.

4:05AM: By “popular demand”, SSP is calling AK-Sen for Ted Stevens and Mark Begich. Our number crunchers are also coloring a gigantic imaginary red check mark beside Ethan Berkowitz’s name.

3:55AM: Getting closer — Parnell is up by just 230 votes. Come on, you old bastard!

3:51AM ET: Time for a fresh new thread.

Polls in Alaska close at 12am Eastern, and we’ll be following the results for the Alaska Senate primary, the Democratic primary for the state’s at-large House seat, and most importantly, the battle between Sean Parnell and Don Young. Stay tuned.

RESULTS: AP (House) | AP (Senate) | AK Division of Elections | ADN.com

3:52AM: Alright, let’s continue the discussion over in thread no. 2.

3:46AM: Uncle Ted is Uncle Ted:

This is still a Republican state. You think they’re going to go for Obama? You think they’re going to go with Schumer who’s against drilling in the arctic and offshore? […]

But this is a Republican state – don’t forget that. And we know why we’re Republican – because the Democrats have opposed our development every inch of the way.

Senator. How are you going to campaign during the trial?

(didn’t answer)

3:28AM: The gap is closing — Young now trails by only 360 votes…

3:23AM: Mush, mighty huskies, mush! We need to see the Coconut Road precincts before daylight!

3:11AM: A source close to the action in Alaska writes in to note (just as many of you have written about in the comments) that many of the Young-friendly precincts in rural Alaska have yet to report. Parnell doesn’t have anything in the bag yet.

2:58AM: Our quickie back-of-the-napkin analysis reveals that Young would have to perform about 1.51% better among the outstanding votes in order to win.

2:54AM: 58% reporting, and Parnell has increased his lead to about 700 votes.

2:38AM: Parnell is now up by over 400 votes.

2:07AM: Young trails by four. Not percent. Four votes. Jebus; there’s no way I’m going to bed tonight.

1:45AM: 37% in, and things are looking a bit hairier for The Donald, with Parnell ahead by 300 votes. With a ton of votes outstanding, though, this lead is hardly safe.

1:21AM: Why is the Dem primary ballot referred to as the “ADL” Party primary, you ask? Answer: typical Republican ballot box b.s.  

1:15AM: Here we go, folks! 31% is in, and Young is up by a nose. Wow. Berkowitz and Stevens are cruising.

1:07AM: A friend on the ground in Alaska tells SSP that AK officials may hold off reporting any numbers until 50% of precincts are counted.

12:38AM: It may take a few minutes before we start to see any results trickle in. They still have to wait for a shipment of ballot boxes stuffed with votes for Don Young to come in from the Coconut Road precincts in Florida, after all.

Polls are now closed in the great state of Florida, where we’ll be tracking the results for the Democratic primary in Florida’s 8th District, and the GOP primary in Florida’s 16th. There are also a number of other primaries in FL-09 (D), FL-10 (D), and FL-15 (D), but we won’t be focusing too heavily on those rinky-dink races.

RESULTS: Associated Press | FL Department of State

12:17AM: It’s ROONEY!

11:23PM (David): In FL-16, Rooney now has an 800-vote lead with just 3% of precincts remaining.

11:14PM (David): Don’t touch that dial – we’ll be up and running with an Alaska thread any moment now. Polls close there at midnight eastern time.

11:06PM: 77% in, and Harrell is back up by 80. In the words of the immortal Samuel L. Jackson, hang on to your butts.

10:45PM: 75% in, and Rooney is up by 300. Over in FL-09, with 93% reporting, Bill Mitchell has a 950 vote lead over former Plant City Mayor John Dicks. That’s something of an upset for the DCCC, who had hoped that Dicks could make this an interesting race. Guess not.

10:29PM: 72% in, and Rooney is hodling onto a 210 vote lead.

10:08PM: With 66% in right now, Rooney is up by 200 votes.

9:58PM: Over in FL-24, Suzanne Kosmas has beaten Clint Curtis by 72-28. No doubt that Curtis will soon gather “sworn affidavits” from voters showing that he actually won.

9:51PM: The see-saw continues in FL-16, where Rooney is back up by 140 votes with 54% in.

9:43PM: Harrell is now up by 310 votes with 49% reporting. Keller is holding on to his 2600 vote lead with 97% in.

9:17PM: Looks like we can now officially close the book on FL-08. With 93% of precincts reporting, Grayson has won by a 48-28-17 margin.

9:07PM: It’s even tighter in FL-16 now, with Harrell leading by only 70 votes.

8:46PM: Harrell’s lead is now down to about 180 votes. Looks like Mike Gravel fan Stephen Blythe has easily won the Dem privilege to get beaten by Bill Posey over in FL-15.

8:26PM: Keller has pushed ahead to a 2500 vote lead now, while Harrell is clinging to a 400 vote lead over Rooney with 18% in.

8:21PM: Grayson has really run away with FL-08. The results so far are almost a complete reversal of the 2006 primary. Grayson turned a 2500 vote deficit in Orange County into a 5000 vote lead, and close losses in Marion and Lake counties into blowouts. Looks like shaving off the scary beard helped!

8:15PM: SSP is calling FL-10 for Bob Hackworth, who has wrecked shop against Sammwise Simpson and Max Linn.

8:00PM: Grayson has pushed ahead to a 5800 vote lead, while Keller is still holding on by 1600 votes.

7:51PM: The DoS now shows Harrell up with a 1000-vote lead in FL-16.

7:46PM: According to the DoS, Grayson now has a 20% lead over Stuart, with a cushion of 5600 votes. Ric Keller has now padded his margin over Todd Long to 1,500 votes and 4%. Still, this race is way closer than it should have been.

7:40PM: Keller continues to lead by 1,200 votes, and Rooney is now edging ahead to a 200 vote lead with 10% reporting.

7:35PM ET: Rooney is leading Harrell by one vote with 6% reporting in FL-16, according to the AP.

7:26PM ET: Alan Grayson has a big early lead in FL-08 according to the DoS — 10,922 to Charlie Stuart’s 6,065, with Mike Smith lagging in third. More shockingly, Ric Keller is barely beating his right-wing challenger, Todd Long, by 14,850 to 13,743 among the early votes. Wow.

Nutjob candidate Jack Davis (“D”) is at it again. The wild-eyed billionaire industrialist and frequent loser has most recently caught flak for making some, uh, unique observations about immigration:

Congressional candidate Jack Davis, in a speech earlier this year, warned that increasing immigration from Mexico could lead to a new civil war between northern states and Mexican-influenced Southern states that may want to secede from the United States.

“In the latter part of this century or the next, Mexicans will be a majority in many of the states and could therefore take control of the state government using the democratic process,” Davis said in the speech. “They could then secede from the United States, and then we might have another civil war.” […]

“They have an allegiance to Mexico, where they were taught the U. S. fought an unjust war with Mexico and took this territory,” Davis said. “They believe the territory of these states belongs to Mexico.”

This blunder, which occurred in March (according to the Buffalo News), was first posted by The Albany Project’s Robert Harding in April, but has only recently caught the attention of the tradmed. Davis is now predictably distancing himself from his earlier remarks, but it’s perhaps too late. You can’t put the crazy juice back in the bottle, Jack.

Let’s pray that this nutter doesn’t successfully buy the Democratic nomination for this open seat.

Primary: September 9th

Public Policy Polling (8/20-23, likely voters, 7/23-27 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 42 (40)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 39 (49)

Chris Cole (L): 5 (4)

Undecided: 13 (7)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Boom! That’s the power of a DSCC moneybomb at work, people: 69% of voters say that they have seen the DSCC’s attack ads, and clearly it has helped push the needle big time here. Dole’s support among African-Americans has nearly halved, as well, to 14%, and Dole’s lead among whites is now only 10 points strong: 47-37.

There’s still plenty of time on the clock, but things must be getting tense at Dole’s campaign headquarters right about now.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/22-24, likely voters):

Betsy Markey (D): 50

Marilyn Musgrave (R-in): 43

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Stunning numbers for Betsy Markey, and they confirm an internal poll from earlier this year that showed Musgrave trailing by the same margin: 43-36.

What’s more, Musgrave’s personal popularity, despite her recent efforts to present a more moderate image. A full 51% of voters view her unfavorably, while only 31% have a favorable opinion of her.

On the presidential level, it looks like the R+8.5 district is undergoing a sea change: McCain only leads Obama by 48-46 here, which is an extremely far cry from the 58-41 drubbing that Bush delivered to Kerry in the district in 2004.

Once again, SUSA takes the pulse of the energy debate, and asks voters if they would cast their ballots for a candidate advocating increased offshore drilling or one who promotes alternative sources of energy. Despite all the assumptions of drilling being the popular choice, once again, the candidate emphasizing alternative energy leads by a 58-34 margin.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but I think a rating change is due in short order.

Roll Call had SurveyUSA do a poll of CO-04, and they just found that Betsy Markey (D) is leading Marilyn Musgrave (R) 50%-43%!

Musgrave trailed Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 50 percent to 43 percent in the poll conducted by SurveyUSA for Roll Call. Seven percent remained undecided. In an equally troubling sign for Musgrave, 51 percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of the three-term Congresswoman, while 31 percent viewed her favorably.

The poll of 618 likely voters was taken Aug. 22-24. It had a 4-point margin of error.

The survey found that Markey had a big lead among female voters, 53 percent to 38 percent. The two women were essentially tied among male voters.

More importantly, Markey had a huge lead in two voter groups that will be essential in deciding the election: independents and moderates. She led by 30 points among independent voters, 59 percent to 29 percent, and by 41 points among self-described moderates, 67 percent to 26 percent. Musgrave will have to close the gap in those two groups in order to have a chance at making the race competitive heading into Election Day.

Bonus finding: in CO-04, McCain is barely leading Obama 48%-46% in this historically Republican district.  As a reference point, Bush got 57% of the vote in CO-04 in 2000, and then got 58% in 2004.

And why should all Democrats be attacking the Republicans’ ties to Big Oil?

Mirroring national polls, the survey found that the economy was by far the biggest issue on the minds of voters, as 41 percent of respondents said Congress should focus on that issue above all others. Immigration was second with 11 percent of respondents saying that is the most pressing issue. All other issues, including Iraq, terrorism, gasoline prices and the environment, polled in the single digits.

The survey found that voters overwhelmingly blame oil companies for the high price of gas. Thirty-eight percent of respondents blamed oil companies, whom Democrats have been seeking to link to Republicans in paid media advertising. Congress and environmentalists were tied for second in blame for gas prices, with 14 percent.

This is it — primary day in Alaska and Florida. The biggest prize of the day is the AK-AL primary, where scandal-tainted GOP Rep. Don Young is facing a stiff challenge from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. If Young can hold off Parnell, Democrats stand a good chance of taking out Young in November; if the primary goes the other way, this will be a tougher but still doable race. Ethan Berkowitz and Diane Benson will face off for the Democratic nod tonight.

And while few expect indicted Sen. Ted Stevens to lose his primary against beardo Vic Vickers and businessman Dave Cuddy, his performance might give us a better reading on the level of discontent with Stevens among the GOP base in Alaska.

In Florida, the hottest action may be in the 8th District, where Charlie Stuart, Mike Smith, and Alan Grayson are vying for the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Rep. Ric Keller, and the 16th District, where the GOP is battling through a three-way primary to take on Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney.

Care to make any predictions for any of these primaries?

Polls close in Florida at 7pm Eastern, and in Alaska at 12am Eastern. We’ll be rolling with liveblog coverage for both of these states later in the evening, so be sure to check back with us then.