Swing State Project

Man, Debbie Wasserman Schultz never seems to miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. A busy bee at Monday morning’s breakfast for the Florida delegation to the Democratic National Convention, she nonetheless made a glaring omission:

“I’ve given 2,500 dollars to Joe Garcia, 5,000 dollars to Raul Martinez. I will be involved in their campaigns and supportive of them,” said Wasserman Schultz. “I haven’t been asked to be an attack dog. I am supporting Raul Martinez and Joe Garcia, and I’m looking forward to their successful election on Nov. 4.”

You all know exactly what I’m talking about: Deb forgot to mention progressive fighter Annette Taddeo, running for Congress in Florida’s 18th congressional district. Now, I’m thrilled that DWS has changed her tune and is openly backing Garcia and Martinez. (Remember, she previously tried to recuse herself from these races, despite being co-chair of the DCCC’s Red to Blue program.)

But there’s no reason at all for her to leave out Taddeo, who is also running in the greater Miami area. And doing so in front of Florida’s convention contingent, which includes important political figures, activists and super-delegates, is really beneath contempt. It sends all the wrong messages.

Fortunately, another Florida congressman who had previous been reluctant to get involved, Rep. Kendrick Meek, has changed his tune – he gave $2000 to Taddeo and has pledged to raise more. That sends all the right messages. And it’s not too late for Debbie to follow suit. But I think she’ll need some more nudging.

So here’s how you can help. Call Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s campaign office at (202) 741-7154 and ask her to do as Rep. Meek has done: make a sizable donation to the Taddeo campaign and solicit her network for more contributions. We need more progressive champions like Annette Taddeo in Congress, and we need well-connected leaders like Wasserman Schultz to help them get there.

You can also e-mail her at AskDebbie@DWSforCongress.com, and her Finance Director, Jason O’Malley, at FinanceDirector@DWSforcongress.com. Whether you call or write, as always please be polite and brief. Our message is simple and our cause is just. Also, please do not call Debbie’s congressional office, as this is purely a political issue which staffers on the federal payroll cannot get involved with.

If you do call or write, please let us know about it in comments!

September 6th is primary day in Louisiana, and midnight was the deadline for congressional candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC. Once again, SSP rounds up the numbers, covering the period of 7/1 through 8/17:

As usual, all figures are in thousands. No reports have been filed yet for William Jefferson or Cedric Richmond, but we’ll update the chart once they’ve filed.

An impressive period for Democrat Don Cravins, who managed to outraise Boustany. Jim Harlan continues to amaze with his self-funded campaign in the R+19 LA-01, and Carmouche continues to lead the field in the fightin’ 4th.

Cazayoux has some work to do in order to replenish his war chest, but at the same time, he’s spending money at a fast clip in order to stay on the airwaves.

UPDATE: LOL.

Come on, feel the noise.

EPIC-MRA (8/20-22, likely voters, 2/27-3/2 in parens):

Mark Schauer (D): 40 (40)

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 43 (50)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Some very nice movement for Schauer — or, to be more precise, a nice nosedive for Timmy Walberg. The spread isn’t too far off from a Schauer internal from earlier this year that showed Walberg trailing leading by three.

But wait, there’s more! A whopping 78% of voters feel that the nation is headed in the wrong direction, and an even higher 82% feel things in Michigan are pretty seriously on the wrong track. Bush’s unfavorables are at 61% and his job disapproval rating is at 73% in the 7th CD — a nice anchor to tie around Walberg’s neck. Walberg’s own job rating is quite dismal: 32% positive and 43% negative. McCain leads Obama by 43-39 in the district.

And now, for the fightin’ 9th. EPIC-MRA (8/21-23, likely voters):

Gary Peters (D): 36

Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 43

Jack Kevorkian (I): 4

Adam Goodman (L): 5

(MoE: ±4.9%)

These numbers very closely resemble a DCCC poll from last November that showed crumb-bum Joe Knollenberg leading Gary Peters by 42-35, despite the wild card of having Jack Kevorkian (yes, that Jack Kevorkian) on the ballot.

The other numbers are good for Peters: 73% and 82% say that the U.S. and the state of Michigan is headed seriously in the wrong direction, and Bush’s job approval is at 71% negative. Knollenberg’s job rating, too, is in the dumps: 35-47. Obama holds a 43-39 lead in the district — a flip of the 7th’s results. After neutral biographies are read of both candidates, Peters propels to a 43-39 lead over Knollenberg.

These races are just heating up, and Peters has just gone up on the air with a pair of bio ads (see here and here). These two races are gonna blow up in short order.

It’s a done deal – Biden is running for another term:

Biden spokesman David Wade said Sunday that Biden will continue his Senate re-election campaign. Biden is expected to defeat Republican challenger Christine O’Donnell in November.

Assuming the Obama-Biden ticket is successful in November (let’s hope), Biden will resign his Senate seat after being sworn in for another term in early January. The task will then fall to outgoing Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to appoint a successor for Biden. Possible contenders include Delaware AG Beau Biden and the loser of the state’s gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Markell. However, the younger Biden’s senatorial aspirations (assuming he has any) may be complicated by his deployment to Iraq in October.

Rasmussen (8/21, likely voters including leaners, 7/30 in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 38 (39)

Big John Cornyn (R-inc.): 52 (50)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The monthly installment from Rasmussen on the Texas Senate race shows little change, with Cornyn edging up slightly. Without leaners pushed, Cornyn leads 48-37 (again, barely changed from 47-37 on July 30).

Noriega is suffering from a big financial disadvantage against Cornyn. The DSCC might be able to tighten things up with a big investment… but with Dem odds heating up in races in North Carolina, Georgia, even Oklahoma, this one may be slipping further down their target list.

And the Winning Ticket Is — Obama / Biden 08:

Barack Obama made an excellent choice with his selection of Delaware Senator Joe Biden to be his running mate.  On Saturday I spent the day working at the Democratic booth at the Centre County Grange Fair and throughout the day people were asking if the announcement had been made.  Everyone I spoke with expressed positive opinions about the choice.  If this is any indication of the type of qualified people Barack Obama will surround himself with as President, we can all rest assured that our country will be headed in a better direction come January of 2009.

The daily trivia question at the Democratic booth was “What Pennsylvania town was Joe Biden’s hometown?”  I’m usually pretty good at trivia but Kim Bierly had to tell me the answer was Scranton PA.

Another Busy Week In The Books:

We put quite a few miles on the campaign Jeep this week.  On Tuesday, we were in attendance to hear Governor Rendell speak at the CBICC luncheon in State College.  It was exciting to hear Governor Rendell speak about the alternative fuels projects going on in Clearfield County.  He also mentioned that the BioEnergy project is the single biggest economic development project in the history of Clearfield County at over $250 million.  

On Wednesday, we traveled west in the morning to visit Venango County for several meetings, then, we headed east to State College to attend the Penn Ag Democratic picnic.  Below is a picture from the Penn Ag picnic with L-R Doug Kilgore, Greg Stewart, Rep. Mike Hanna, Mark McCracken, Rep. Scott Conklin and Sec. of Agriculture Dennis Wolf.

On Friday, we attended the opening of the Clinton County Democratic Headquarters.  There was a very nice crowd on hand to hear from Sen. John Wozniak, Rep. Mike Hanna, Commissioner Joel Long, Commissioner Adam Coleman and Mayor Rick Vilello.

Sharing the stage with these leaders who represent Clinton County on the state, county and local level gave me the opportunity to speak about how I want to be a close working partner with other elected officials.  As a county commissioner this is something I feel has been lacking in the 5th district and is something I will change when I’m elected to Congress.  

Saturday at the Centre County Grange Fair was an outstanding day that started off early with the monthly Centre County Democrats breakfast.  We got the chance to speak with people from throughout the 5th district that were at the fair.  Also, WPSU filmed a walk around the fairgrounds segment with me.  We got a lot of great footage that will appear on a program WPSU is doing about campaigning at the fair.  The highlight of the walk around segment was meeting with a lady who told me she just turned 91 and has only missed Grange Fair twice in her life.

The week ended at Treasure Lake in DuBois for an Obama supporter’s picnic on Sunday afternoon.  The folks at the picnic were still excited about the selection of Senator Biden and all Democrats are excited about the convention in Denver.

The Week Ahead:

On Thursday, a representative from the campaign will be attending “Obama Watch Parties” for Obama’s big speech at the DNC Convention.  We will be making stops in Ridgway, DuBois, and Clearfield.  Come for the party and stay for the politics.  We will be handing out literature and campaign signs for supporters.

The big event for the week is the WPSU Town Hall Meeting that will be filmed Tuesday at 5:45 at the Grange Fair.  It will be aired on WPSU on September 4th and will probably be aired several times before Election Day.  If you are at the Grange Fair on Tuesday, plan to stop by and take part in the Town Hall Meeting.

Upcoming Fundraising Event:

Keith Bierly is planning the WE’RE BACKIN’ McCRACKEN GOLF CLASSIC to be held on September 22nd beginning at 8 AM at the Belles Springs Golf Course in Clinton County.  The tournament will feature LPGA TOUR player Jackie Gallagher-Smith.  The entry fee will be $92.00 per player, or, $300.00 for a foursome.  Sponsoring a hole will also be $92.00.  There will be an ongoing cookout throughout the final nine holes.

A brochure with all the details will follow in early September.  The tournament is 4 weeks from tomorrow – Monday – the 22nd.  Belles Springs is conveniently located less than one mile off of Interstate 80 at the Lock Haven Exit.  Make you plans now to attend.  Contact Keith Bierly at keithbierly@yahoo.com for more details and to make your reservation.

Yard Signs Are Now Available:  

For the time being, we want to concentrate on getting the signs displayed in yards only.  Closer to Election Day we will concentrate on getting signs out in public view.  If you would like a sign for your yard, please email the campaign at mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net, call 765-6821 or speak with members of the campaign staff.

We look forward to seeing out on the campaign trail.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

As you all know by now, New Mexico will be critical to a Barack Obama victory this fall. However, what you may not know is that New Mexico will also be a critical battleground for us to strengthen our majority in Congress. Fortunately, we have Tom Udall running for the open Senate seat here. And even better, we also have Martin Heinrich running to turn blue a House seat that’s been red for 40 years.

Martin Heinrich has spent his life helping and serving others. He’s helped improve the community in Albuquerque with his non-profit work. He’s fought for a healtheir environment as New Mexico State Natural Resources Trustee. He’s worked to bring “green-collar jobs” to Albuquerque while on the city council, as he’s also worked on the council to increase the minimum wage, reduce crime in the city’s neighborhoods, and protect the area’s precious natural resources. Basically, Martin Heinrich can be counted on to get the job done for the people.

Darren White,on the other hand, is nothing more than another far right Republican Bush loyalist. He served on the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign in New Mexico, and he’s happily using his Bush-Cheney connections to raise money for his Congressional campaign. So even though White stresses he’s an “independent leader”, don’t believe it. He’s yet another Bush Republican offering more of the same when New Mexicans are looking for real change.

Fortunately for us, the voters in New Mexico’s First District seem ready for change. The race is very close right now, and Democrats have a real chance of picking up this seat. That’s why our friends like The League of Conservation Voters and The DCCC’s Red to Blue program are lining up to support this people’s environmental champion. We can win here… If we stand up and support our Democrat running!

So will you stand up and support good, strong, progressive Democrats like Martin Heinrich? This is one of the hottest races in the country, and this is one of best chances of turning a red seat blue and expanding our majority. So please, stand with us and support Martin Heinrich today! 🙂

Capital Survey Research Center (8/19-21, likely voters, 4/1 in parens):

Parker Griffith (D): 45 (48)

Wayne Parker (R): 40 (32)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Republican Wayne Parker has closed the gap since April, but this is hardly surprising. Parker began his campaign as a largely unknown candidate, with memories of his two losses to Democrat Bud Cramer in 1994 and 1996 being extremely distant. However, after a contested primary, he’s boosted his name recognition and is now hitting the 40% mark.

Still, Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator from Huntsville, retains the edge based on his superior credentials, the district’s ancestral Democratic tendencies, and heavier war chest.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/19-21, likely voters):

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 50

Lynn Jenkins (R): 43

(MoE: ±4%)

Boyda is at the critical 50% mark, and has decent favorability numbers for a frosh Dem in a deep red district (46-32). She still faces a real battle against the top-of-the ticket coattails, as McCain is beating Obama by a 51-38 margin in the district — but even that spread is not as bad as the 59-39 drubbing that Bush delivered to John Kerry here in 2004.

More interesting are the questions related to the energy crisis, including this one:

If two candidates were running for Congress, and one says that offshore drilling is the best way to solve America’s energy problems … and the other says that America needs to identify and promote alternative sources of energy … which candidate would you vote for?

So, considering all the hype surrounding the GOP’s newly-discovered “drill here, drill now” mantra, you would expect offshore drilling to be wildly popular in a conservative R+7.3 district, right? Actually, not so much: Voters here say they would vote for the candidate promoting alternative sources of energy over increased offshore drilling by a 56-34 margin.

Additionally, when asked who was most responsible for high gasoline prices, 38% blamed the oil companies while only 11% blamed environmentalists. President Bush received 10% of the blame, while Congress gobbled up 13%. You can see why the most valued attack line from the party committees this cycle is one that ties GOP candidates to “big oil”.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Suffolk University (8/21-24, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Udall (D): 39

Bob Schaffer (R): 31

Douglas Campbell (ACP): 4

Robert Kinsey (G): 2

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Mason-Dixon also has released a poll (8/13-15, likely voters) showing Udall leading Schaffer by 10 points:

Mark Udall (D): 47

Bob Schaffer (R): 37

Robert Kinsey (G): 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Schaffer’s campaign manager, major league asshole Dick Wadhams, responds with his typical bluster:

“That flies in the face of just about every other number I’ve seen in this race, and I think Mason-Dixon had a bad night,” said Schaffer campaign spokesman Dick Wadhams. “This poll is so far off the mark, I can’t even respond to it.”

Interesting. See, I’m looking at Pollster.com’s chart for this race, and I see seven other polls showing Udall leading by eight points or more. In fact, the Pollster aggregate shows Udall leading by six points, so it’s hard to argue that Mason-Dixon is that far off the mark.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.