Swing State Project

Today is Ashwin Madia Blog Day and so as a supporter from pretty much the day the primary field settled. I thought I’d post a little bit about why I’ve been part of Madiamania for so long. It shouldn’t be two hard beacuse two blogs today, Ashin’s in The Hill and Howie Klein’s on DownWithTyranny, have spelled out my main reason pretty well. I’ve supported Ashwin Madia since the start beacuse he has courage.

Today in a blog for The Hill  Ashwin summed it up in one line

It’s time for a little more bravery in Washington.

Ashwin Madia has the courage to take on the war’s biggest cheerleader, Joe Lieberman

Today, the Republican Party announced that the loudest defender of status quo policies on Iraq, Senator Joe Lieberman, will be a prominent speaker at the Republican National Convention in my home state of Minnesota. Senator Lieberman and I do have one thing in common. We’ve both changed political parties. I left the Republican Party in 2002 after it replaced “balance our budget” with “borrow and spend” and after we started a war without a plan for success; a war we did not need.

With all respect to Senator Lieberman, talking tough about Iraq is not brave. Bravery is not demonstrated through words but instead through action.

Ashwin Madia has the courage to oppose the recent FISA bill.

I am troubled by the House passage of HR 6304, the FISA Amendments Act of 2008. There is much we can do to prevent terrorism, but such measures do not require the sacrifice of fundamental constitutional freedoms which our country was founded upon. This legislation demonstrates the need for leaders in Congress who have experience in the military and in Iraq, and who value the rule of law as we fight the War on Terror.

Ashwin Madia has the courage to stand for full equality for all Americans.

Ever since the start of my campaign, I have been reaching out to members of the LGBT community in Minnesota. That’s because I strongly believe in full equal rights for all lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender Americans.

As a Marine Corps lawyer who served in Iraq, I was one of first attorneys to successfully defend a gay Marine from discrimination in the military. It wasn’t easy to stand in front of a jury made up of other U.S. Marines and argue against the military’s bigoted and shameful “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy, but I was more than willing to do so. I would I would be proud to serve alongside anyone brave enough to put on the uniform.

As someone with a brother who is gay, I would advocate passionately for passage of a federal hate crimes law that recognizes the disproportionate number of threats on a daily basis faced by members of the LGBT community. Existing law already extends legal protections for a number of vulnerable minority communities. Every day that we do not have this protection, LGBT individuals remain at risk.

I support same-sex marriage and full equality under the law. Civil unions fall short and seem to be a way for politicians to avoid recognizing all people as equal.

Lastly, it is unacceptable that our nation continues to allow a form of discrimination to exist in the workplace based on a characteristic that is just as inherent as sex, race, or disability. I support efforts to prohibit job discrimination.

I’m running for an open seat which had been held by a moderate Republican. But my opponent, State Representative Erik Paulsen, has been a vehement opponent of equal rights for LGBT Minnesotans for more than a decade. He led the fight in 2004, and again in 2006, to write discrimination into the Minnesota state constitution. He even voted to prevent equal benefits from being provided to domestic partners of state employees even though many of Minnesota’s largest employers already have policies that promote equality.

I have been endorsed by the Human Rights Campaign and by Minnesota’s Stonewall DFL (Democrats). I hope you will consider supporting my campaign in the coming days and weeks. We need pragmatic problem solving not people who put their political ideology ahead of principles. It’s time for a few more patriots in Congress and a few less politicians.

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Those are just three examples to give you a idea of what Ashwin is about. Ashwin is a fighter, if we send him to Washington he will not disappoint.

Here’s a great video of Ashwin

We won’t get a great progressive like that in Washington by wishing for it. We’ve got to work for it.

Want courage in Washington? Donate.

SurveyUSA (8/18-19, registered Dem voters):

Mike McMahon (D): 64

Steve Harrison (D): 18

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Big lead for McMahon. Keep in mind that this poll is of registered, and not likely Dem voters, so a different screen might produce a somewhat different result.

McMahon, an NYC Councilman, has a pretty consistent lead among all age brackets and both men and women. Somewhat amusingly, Steve Harrison’s strongest performance in the crosstabs comes from conservative Democrats, who give him 27% to McMahon’s 57%.

Primary: September 9th

In the primaries Judy Baker raised over 400K mostly from individual donations, while Blaine Luetkemeyer self-funded over 325K and raised 140K from donations.

http://www.opensecrets.org/rac…

It appears that Luetkemeyer having secured a primary victory where both he and Onder self-funded over 325K and then rapidly spent that money in a negative ad blitz, is unable to continue pouring hundreds of thousands of his own money into the campaign.

He is now hoping that outside groups and the NRCC can help bankroll his campaign.

In the interview below he says that he is unlikely to continue self-funding.

See story and interview here:

http://blogs.columbiatribune.c…

The DCCC and NRCC have both entered the race, but Baker seems more prepared to continue to raise money from individual donors than Luetkemeyer whose primary funding was below expectations. If you take out self-funding, Luetkemeyer was actually outraised by non-serious primary candidate Danie Moore (as well as Bob Onder) in the last fundraising quarter and was outraised by Baker nearly 3 to 1 in the last quarter.

If Luetkemeyer is unable to self-fund he will need to pick up his fundraising pace considerably to keep pace with Baker.

This is a Lean Republican district but Judy Baker should be able to outraise Luetkemeyer and make it very competitive.

Please feel free to donate to Judy Baker at my ActBlue page below if you’d like to help her continue to outraise Luetkemeyer.

http://www.actblue.com/page/wa…

To double the effectiveness of any swing state donations, I’ll match all small donations on my page and all total donations this week on my page up to $400.  

The latest independent expenditures from the DCCC, as compiled by SSP (cycle-to-date expenditures in parens):

• AK-AL: $18,100 and another $18,100 on direct mail against Don Young and Sean Parnell (CTD: $54,300)
• IL-11: $39,300 on a media buy, $16,000 on direct mail, and $1300 on phone banking in support of Debbie Halvorson (CTD: $267,000)
• NJ-03: $1,900 on phone banking in support of John Adler (CTD: $1,900)
• NJ-07: $13,100 on direct mail and $1,300 on phone banking in support Linda Stender (CTD: $66,900)
• OH-15: $15,700 on direct mail and $800 on phone banking in support of Mary Jo Kilroy (CTD: $69,400)
• OH-16: $12,500 on direct mail and $900 on phone banking in support of John Boccieri (CTD: $44,900)
• TX-22: $43,800 on a media buy and $24,400 on direct mail in support of Nick Lampson (CTD: $189,500)
• VA-11: $1300 on phone banking, $13,200 on direct mail, and $200 on web media in support of Gerry Connolly (CTD: $13,400)

And for the NRCC:

• CA-08: $21,700 on a media buy against Nancy Pelosi

If you’re scratching your head and wondering why the NRCC is sinking cash against Pelosi, PolitickerCA explains that the buy was made on nationwide cable (FOX, of course) and takes aim at Pelosi and other Democrats on the energy crisis. So, there you go.

And finally, from the Club For Growth:

• AK-AL: $33,600 on radio ads against Don Young

A bummer for Uncle Ted:

Sen. Ted Stevens lost a bid Wednesday to move his corruption trial from Washington to his home state of Alaska.

Stevens is scheduled for trial next month on charges of lying about hundreds of thousands of dollars in home renovations and other services he received from an oil services contractor.

The powerful Republican senator asked that the case be moved to Alaska, so it would not slow down his re-election bid. After hearing arguments Wednesday, U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan refused.

Assuming Stevens makes it through the Republican primary, the court ruling could affect his ability to campaign during the weeks leading up to Election Day. If the trial had been moved to Alaska, he planned to defend himself in court by day and campaign in the evenings and on weekends.

As you may recall, Stevens specially requested a fall trial. He was granted that, but he didn’t get the home field advantage. Now that he’s lost his bid to move shop to Alaska and the chance to hit the stump in October, I wonder if he’ll come back to the judge, hat in hand, and ask for a delay. That would almost be the definition of chutzpah – but what else can you expect from Ted Stevens?

The California Nurses Association/National Nurses Organizing Committee and our allies at the Leadership Conference on Guaranteed Healthcare are debuting a new feature: The Healthcare Heroes Caucus, which will honor candidates who are running on a platform of supporting HR 676, John Conyers’ bill for an expanded and improved Medicare for All.

We will highlight the stories of these healthcare heroes, and work to get them the attention and support they need.  It’s not always easy to run in the face of insurance companies and a sold-out political culture…but it is smart.  Poll after poll shows the American people are open to an expanded and improved Medicare for All, and are desperate for the kind of solutions that will improve care while saving money.

Debbie Cook is our first Healthcare Hero candidate and she’s a great one.  She is a committed progressive running in CA-46, an Orange County California district that is ready to toss out libertarian radical Dana Rohrbacher and elect a real leader.

First of all, true progressives like Debbie need your support. Go show your appreciation for her healthcare heroism on her ActBlue page.

Now that’s taken care of, please read Donna Smith’s profile of Debbie from the Guaranteed Healthcare Blog.  Fun excerpt:

But during her Congressional campaign, she hears over and over again from citizens struggling with healthcare costs that are too high or the lack of any health insurance coverage or even those who are forced into bankruptcy.  “I think other countries might look at us as a Third World country when it comes to what happens to so many Americans faced with healthcare expenses they cannot afford.” She went to say that huge insurance industry profits often come before getting patients the care they may need.

It’s no wonder Debbie hears about healthcare issue out on the campaign trail.  California ranks number one in the nation with the number of people uninsured well over 6.5 million and the number of citizens struggling with “underinsurance” rated nearly as high.

Efforts by State Senator Sheila Kuehl to pass SB840, state single payer legislation, have been thwarted by the governor’s pen, not a lack of political support from citizens and healthcare professionals who know just how bad things are for so many Californians.

“Healthcare decisions need to be made by patients and their doctors, not by insurance companies,” Debbie said when asked how much influence insurance companies should have on patient care.

“Healthcare professionals in growing numbers are supporting single payer health care where we use a system similar to Medicare to pay bills, and focus our efforts on improving the efficiency of care, especially treatment of chronic diseases.,” Debbie noted when she reflected on RNs fighting for single payer legislation in California and nationally.

Insider Advantage for the Southern Political Report (8/19, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 40

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 40

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Hooah. Those are some damn fine numbers for Kay Hagan, and while it’s too early to tell if this is part of a coming polling trend, this could be a sign that the negative ad campaign by the DSCC, Majority Action and most recently, MoveOn.org, may be having some effect on Dole’s favorables. Hagan herself has taken back to the airwaves recently with a series of new ads – certainly also a key part of the equation.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-43 in North Carolina. Hagan currently outperforms Obama among white voters (who break 54-33 for McCain, and 46-34 for Dole), but lags Obama’s performance among African-Americans (who favor Obama by 75-17, but Hagan only by 61-24). If Hagan can cut down on cross-over voting among black voters and make a steady gain among whites, she could be in a good position for an upset by election day.

Encouraging numbers, all around.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Rasmussen (8/19, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/23 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 52 (51)

John Sununu (R-inc): 43 (45)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Shaheen climbs back up to a nine point lead over Bununu. Right now, most observers seem to be waiting with bated breath to see what happens when Sununu starts to, well, actually campaign. He’s still sitting on a $5 million war chest that has largely gone untouched this cycle. When he starts to spend, will the gap close? Or will he end up like Rick Santorum, where all the money and brilliant ads in the world could not save his sorry ass from defeat in 2006?

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

(Hat-tip: conspiracy)

McLaughlin & Associates for the Club For Growth (8/18, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):

Don Young (R-inc): 42 (43)

Sean Parnell (R): 44 (39)

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 8 (10)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Parnell takes the lead by a hair — but just a hair. This race just might end up coming down to a photo finish. (H/T: The Politico)

The Club For Brain Growth continues to do everything they can to push the empty suit of Sean Parnell across the finish line, including the release of this new attack ad yesterday that heavily hypes Sarah Palin’s endorsement:

Hiding behind Palin is a smart strategy for the Club, whose leaders have probably never even set foot in Alaska and whose agenda includes stopping the flow of controversial earmarks to the state.

In his corner, Don Young picked up an endorsement of his own this week — from libertarian nutball Rep. Ron Paul:

Paul, the 72-year-old congressman from Texas whose maverick presidential bid drew wide support in Alaska, sent out a letter to his supporters here urging them to vote for Young.

“Don and I have served together in Congress for many years, and I consider him a friend,” Paul wrote in the letter. “Don has been an outspoken voice against environmental extremists over the years and has strongly opposed the types of federal regulatory overreach advocated in the name of environmentalism.”

Strange bedfellows, indeed.

SurveyUSA (8/16-18, likely voters, 6/21-23 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 38 (45)

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 52 (50)

Andy Horning (L): 3 (-)

Christopher Stried (I): 3 (-)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Tough numbers for Long Thompson. Indeed, the Pollster composite for this race is getting really ugly — yet another reason why Obama cannot afford to tap Evan Bayh as his running mate.

Bonus finding: John McCain, on the upswing as of late, has pulled ahead to a five-point lead in Indiana. Obama posted a single point lead here in June.