MN-Sen: Still Close

Rasmussen (8/13, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/22 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 46 (49)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 49 (46)

(MoE: ±4%)

Franken and Coleman trade the lead, but the spread remains tight; without including leaners (although, again, I don’t see why this method is preferable), the race is tied at 45% apiece.

Franken’s favorables are still weak (48-48, compared to Coleman’s 53-44), and it’s worth pointing out that Rasmussen is the only pollster to show this race close or tied in the last several months.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

CO-Sen: Udall Leads by 8

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Rasmussen (8/13, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/21 in parens):

Mark Udall (D): 50 (49)

Bob Schaffer (R): 42 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This race has more or less fallen into a holding pattern of a high single digits lead for Mark Udall for the past several months, as illustrated nicely by Pollster.com’s chart.

Udall is also up with a new ad that includes support for additional domestic drilling as one of many measures to combat the current energy crisis. I’d expect to see many more ads like this from downballot Democrats this fall as they attempt to neutralize the one issue where the GOP is rediscovering its swagger. Sure, it’s a total canard, but I don’t think Democrats want to end up on the wrong side of this debate in the court of public opinion. That’s the downside of populism for you.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

UPDATE: A new CBS4/Rocky Mountain News poll (8/11-13, likely voters) also shows Udall up — this time by 44 to 38.

Republican Congressman Attacks 14 year old blogger

That’s right. Yesterday at a debate between Rep. Virgil Goode of Virgina’s 5th district and his Democratic challenger Tom Perriello Goode said this

“And they want me out of Congress, the liberal Democrats want me out. And they want me out because I’m a conservative voice, if we can silence that person that’s exactly what we want, we want more mushers up here  in Congress that won’t speak out and stand out. They want a Obamajority in this country, Tom is on the Obamajority list for the US House of Representatives, they want to get him in there because they know he is going to be voting with them. They want to control the White House, 60 votes in the US Senate and a strong majority in the US House of Representatives.”

Goode is famous for using bogeymen to scare people, he attacked Rep. Keith Ellison for being a Muslim and repeated tall tales about China that even Dick Cheney said where false.

Now he’s found a new bogeymen. He’s attacking the Obamajority, an ActBlue page started by a 14 year old blogger–me.

That’s right, back in March I started an ActBlue page, “The New Obamajority”. After asking for suggestions I added Tom Perriello to the page. Apparently the 587 dollars we raised from 12 donors over the internet terrified Goode so much that he decided to attack a internet fundraising page in his closing remarks at a key debate in his race.

That internet fundraising page is even more terrifying to Goode because it was started by me, a 14 year old blogger with close to no political experience before two years ago. I’m trembling in my boots!

Personally I don’t think 587 bucks is anything to be scared about. If I were Goode I would be more worried about the fact that he’s getting outraised by Perriello. But I say we give him something to really be scared about.

I’m setting a goal of getting to 50 donors for Perriello on the Obamajority page to send Goode packing.

Donate to Tom Perriello

Goode doesn’t seem to like “mushers” which is odd because it is the name of people who race dogs similar to dogsled racing, I guess Goode has a problem with mushing, maybe if we retire him he’ll have enough free time to try out mushing and maybe he’ll learn to love it.

Goode for Musher! Donate now.

It’s also a good excuse to donate to a terrific progressive candidate who will help build a Obamajority and will fight for our values. He helped develop the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq, helped found the people powered group Avaaz.org and is a strong believer in conviction politics.  

Donate for People-Powered Conviction Politics

Also, Goode came close to breaking a secret I’ve been keeping. Tom will not be voting with “them” as Goode said, he will be personally calling me up before each vote and asking me how to vote. In fact, he got me a slick new phone for that purpose.

Let me assure you of this, Tom will march lock step with the powerful Teenage Blogger Caucus!  

Donate to Tom

We’ve got a goal, we’ve got a teenage blogger attacking congressmen, we’ve got a terrific candidate to replace him.

Now time for action! It’s time to make a difference and let’s do it. Let’s use the super-powerful Obamajority internet fundraising page to elect Tom Perriello and say “Goodbye” to Virgil Goode. We can use the series of tubes to make a difference!

Send a donation through the series of tubes!

Donate

NJ-04: Zeitz Challenges Smith to 4 Debates

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

Josh Zeitz, the Democratic nominee for Congress in New Jersey’s 4th Congressional district, today challenged Rep. Chris Smith to four public debates.

In honor of the 150th anniversary of the historic Lincoln-Douglas debates, Zeitz asked Smith to join him at one public debate in each of the fourth district’s counties: Burlington, Mercer, Monmouth and Ocean. During their campaign for the U.S. Senate from Illinois, Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas debated in each of Illinois’s nine congressional districts.

As a sign of respect, Zeitz mailed a personal debate invitation to Smith’s home, along with a copy of a book on the Lincoln-Douglas debates.

Here’s what Josh had to say:

“The rising cost of food, gas, health care, and education is hurting many working families,” wrote Zeitz. “People have a right to know how each of us proposes to address these grave problems, and they have a right to challenge us in a public forum.”

“I can think of no better way for us to honor the anniversary of the Lincoln-Douglas debates than by providing the residents of New Jersey’s Fourth Congressional District a similar opportunity to see their candidates engage in a vigorous but respectful exchange of ideas.”

“While neither of us would presume to walk in the footsteps of these two giants, let’s agree to honor their memory — and to honor our neighbors in Central Jersey – by debating in Ocean, Monmouth, Burlington, and Mercer Counties.”

The campaign is entering a critical phase and we need your support. You can contribute at Josh’s ActBlue page. If you’d like to volunteer, please contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. Please visit Josh’s website to learn more about why we need to elect Josh to Congress.

If any of you, in particular those from the Garden State, have specific things you’d like to suggest Josh focus on in the debate, feel free to email ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com and I’ll pass them along. No guarantees of course, but Josh and the campaign want to hear your thoughts.

WA-Gov, NC-Gov: Both Close

SurveyUSA (8/11-12, likely voters, 7/13-15 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (49)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (46)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 47 (47)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (46)

Mike Munger (L): 5 (3)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The nation’s two closest gubernatorial races continue to be, well, close according to SurveyUSA. In Washington, SurveyUSA’s numbers stay extremely consistent, with each side gaining a smidge of support, to the extent that only 2% of respondents remain undecided with more than two months to go. I doubt too many people have changed their minds since 2004. (The stability of this race is best seen graphed over at Pollster.com.)

One thing to bear in mind is that Rossi has been engaged in saturation advertising this month (there’s a freakin’ Rossi banner ad at the top of my screen no matter what site I’m looking at), in order to ramp up his numbers for the primary/beauty contest next week, while Gregoire has backed off a bit on advertising. Rossi, I’d imagine, is counting on getting some momentum out of a surprise squeaker victory in the Top 2 primary, possible since he has the more motivated supporters and there won’t be any Obama coattails next week. (As I mentioned in the comments a few days ago, the minor candidates in the primary are a particularly hapless lot this year, incapable of playing spoiler to either Rossi or Gregoire.)

As for the Tar Heel State, that looks very stable too. Here’s its Pollster.com graph. The main fluctuation seems to be right-leaners trying to decide whether to go with McCrory or Munger. (I suspect they’ll, as usual, go with the Republican, which why I’d bet this race winds up being a little closer than Washington in November.)

OH-16: John Boccieri’s Economic Plan

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress:

John Boccieri has a plan to reform America’s trade policies and restore our competitiveness.

Reforming Trade and Restoring America’s Competitiveness

Unfair trade practices have had a devastating impact on our local communities. Since 2001, the state of Ohio has lost more than 102,000 jobs to China alone – the 5th highest amount of all 50 U.S. states.

Two thirds of U.S. jobs lost to China have come from our manufacturing sector, which won’t surprise local community members who have seen factories closed and jobs shipped away.

John Boccieri believes that America can become a strong competitor again, but we need a major change in our approach to the global economy.

Here is what Senator Major John Boccieri(D-Alliance) has laid out for us:

Put America first when it comes to trade:

The fast-growing economies of countries like China would collapse if U.S. consumers weren’t buying their goods. Instead of rubberstamping bad trade deals written by international corporate lobbyists, leaders in Washington should use that leverage to negotiate fair trade deals that benefit America’s workforce.

Of course, John’s opponent thinks our first priority should be extending the “Bush-onomics” of “lowering the capital gains tax”. This additional tax cut does nothing more than lower federal revenue, line the pockets of businesses, and the wealthiest of investors.

Enhance and enforce fair international trade standards:

We should use our global economic leverage to increase labor, human-rights and environmental standards around the world, not weaken our own protections in a race to the bottom. We should push countries like China to stop manipulating currency values, open their markets to U.S. exports, and honor and enforce standards that will level the playing field for American workers.

Of course, John’s opponent thinks our second priority should be a “crack down on the frivolous lawsuits”. We’re not stupid; this is simply a code phrase for “Tort Reform”, lowering the penalty against manufacturers of faulty products that injure, maim, and kill unsuspecting consumers and workers to just $250,000. Is this “fair compensation” for the life of your family’s bread-winner?

Protect the health and safety of American consumers:

Higher international trade standards won’t just help U.S. workers – they will protect American consumers from lead-tainted toys, poisonous pet food, or other dangers of cheap but poorly-regulated overseas production.

Gosh, I think I just covered this one with my last comment! Just for the sake of fairness, his opponent suggests “Regulatory Reform”. “Tort Reform” becomes an insurance policy for this irresponsible cousin.

Restore fiscal responsibility in Washington:

President Bush will leave us with the largest deficit in American history, and his reckless spending has driven us deeply into debt. Other nations have bought huge amounts of our debt to manipulate international currency values to their advantage. Restoring spending sanity in Washington is an important step to improving our balance of trade.

John’s opponent claims he will “fight to restore the fiscal discipline for which Republicans were once known”. This leads to a serious question; “Just how do you propose to “restore fiscal responsibility” while we spend $12 billion per month on The Iraq War?”

Reward investment in America:

We should reward companies that find innovative ways to create jobs and compete right here in the United States. These businesses should receive tax breaks, first priority for state and federal contracts, and other benefits to help them grow and succeed.

John’s opponent suggests “reforming unfair trade laws” that were put on the “fast-track” by the Bush/Cheney administration. Wouldn’t we find this much simpler to achieve had we never entered into these “trade agreements” without first making sure America’s middle-class working families were put first and foremost?

Turn around our education system:

America has fewer students graduating from high school today than we did a generation ago. We need to put a diploma and college or skills training within reach of every single young American by making smart investments in education, expanding much-needed grants and loans, and offering scholarships in exchange for public service.

John’s opponent proposes to “shift the burden of funding from property taxes to sales and income taxes”. Does it make sense that John’s opponent wants to lower taxes for the wealthiest investors and raise taxes on the working middle class while we spend $12 Billion per month in Iraq?

Support and invest in displaced workers:

Workers whose jobs have been outsourced often lose their health insurance and pensions, too, and even if they find new jobs they rarely pay as well. We need effective workforce retraining programs, stronger protections for pensions, and a health care system that gives every American coverage that is portable, affordable, and not subject to pre-existing conditions.

John’s opponent proposes to “Create Economic Empowerment Zones”. “Strengthening partnerships between industry and government” reads like the lobbyists win, again. Albeit, the “free market principles”, such as health care savings accounts, tax credits, and employer reimbursement reads much like the “Bush Privatization Model”.

Make our economy work for all Americans again:

We have to end the disconnect between booming corporate profits and stagnating middle class incomes. When CEO salaries rise, workers’ paychecks and benefits should grow, too.

“Senator Schuring is welcome to keep defending Bob Taft’s policies and looking out for the corporate executives who fund his campaign. I’m focused on relief for the working families who are being hit hardest by our economic crisis.” ~ Senator John Boccieri, July 23, 2008

Invest in industries that can’t be outsourced:

Producing our own energy here in America is a matter of national security. The Apollo Alliance estimates that the development of renewable domestic energy sources like wind farms, solar arrays, biofuel crops, and geothermal, nuclear, and clean coal plants would create more than 23,000 new “green collar” jobs in Ohio. Half a million more jobs could see wage and benefit growth from those investments.

Industries like this are the key to new jobs and prosperity for generations of Americans to come.

It’s a 4355 mile commute to ANWR and if traffic is in your favor you might make it there in 90 hours!

WA-Gov: Gregoire at 50%, Rossi gains

Survey USA (8/11-12, 718 LVs, July in parentheses):

Gregiore:  50% (49)

Rossi:     48% (46)

One week before the “beauty contest,” Rossi has closed the gap a bit further.  This is going to be very close, and I think who finishes first on the 19th will win in November.  Gregoire just can’t put the race away.  No surprises in the internals this time (shock!) but Rossi leads 50-44 among independents and leads 51-47 among the 42% who think the economy is the most important issue.

Also of note:

Obama’s lead in the state is down to 51-44, a nine point drop from last month.  

It’s a wrap: Tom Cole leave 49 Dem seats on the table

I’d been waiting for NY Sec State to put up his combined congressional filings, and he finally did the other day. That allows us to total up the filings nationwide. It looks like Republicans have left 49 Dem seats unchallenged this cycle if I did the math right. They managed to worsen their previous count of 46 from 2006. Here’s the Dem seats they walked away from this cycle for the record:  

AL-07

AR-01,2,4

CA-18,28,30,31,32,37,38

CO-03

FL-03,17,20

GA-04,5

IL-02,4,5,7,17

LA-03

MA-02,3,4,5,7,8,9,10

MI-14

MO-01

NJ-10

NY-06,9

OR-04

PA-12,14

TN-06,8,9

TX-09,16

VA-03,9

VT-01

WI-04

WV-01

Let’s give Tom Cole a big round of applause for now OFFICIALLY becoming the worst NRCC chair recruiter in the last several decades.

 

VA-05: Goode Has Huge Lead in New Poll

SurveyUSA (8/10-12, likely voters):

Tom Perriello (D): 30

Virgil Goode (R-inc): 64

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Those are some ugly numbers – very much reminiscent of the 64-36 drubbing that Goode delivered to Democrat Al Weed in 2004 (Weed closed the gap to 59-40 two years later before throwing in the towel). Having not spent much in the way of advertising yet, I’d expect Perriello’s name recognition to be quite weak. He should be able to close the gap some once he spends his considerable resources on the race, but this looks to be an extremely tough hill to climb.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

(H/T: ChadInFL)

FL-25: Diaz-Balart Claims Support From Wasserman Schultz and Meek

Longtime readers of the Swing State Project know that we have written extensively about the Debbie Wasserman Schultz controversy in the past (see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here), so I won’t spill a ton of ink on the subject again. However, FLA Politics shares this disgusting new video of GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart basking in the warm glow of his “bipartisan” support from Democratic Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (co-chair of the DCCC’s Red to Blue program) and Kendrick Meek:

It’s entirely predictable that Diaz-Balart, facing the fight of his political career against Democrat Joe Garcia and barely leading in the latest poll, would pull this pair of Democratic bunnies out of his hat. Note how clearly he is savoring the fact that Schultz and Meek “refuse to help” Garcia, and let that be a lesson to any weak-hearted Dems who give cover to their vulnerable GOP colleagues.