8/14-8/16 Expenditure Roundup

The DCCC’s IE shop is really kicking into gear, leaving the tight-budgeted NRCC in the dust. Here’s a round-up of the DCCC’s most recent independent expenditures, as compiled by SSP:

  • OH-15: $1,350 on phonebanking and $15,700 on direct mail in support of Mary Jo Kilroy
  • TX-22: $24,400 on direct mail in support of Nick Lampson
  • IL-11: $20,450 on direct mail in support of Debbie Halvorson
  • NJ-07: $13,100 on direct mail in support of Linda Stender
  • OH-16: $12,500 on direct mail in support of John Boccieri
  • PA-11: $80,000 on a media buy in support of Paul Kanjorski
  • VA-11: $1,240 on phonebanking in support of Gerry Connolly
  • AK-AL: $18,100 on direct mail against Don Young and Sean Parnell

I’ve seen a lot of people on Team Blue dismiss Lou Barletta’s chances in PA-11, but the fact that the DCCC feels nervous enough to continue to bail out Kanjorski’s ass (spending $260K to date) is a disturbing sign.

TN-Sen: Mixed Results

Three separate sets of numbers for the Tennessee Senate race between Senator Lamar Alexander (R) and Democrat Bob Tuke were released on Friday, showing three different results (in a sample of 500 people):

In an internal poll conducted by the Alexander campaign it shows:

Lamar Alexander (R-inc.): 60%

Bob Tuke (D): 30%

In an internal poll conducted by the Tuke campaign it shows:

Lamar Alexander (R-inc.): 54%

Bob Tuke (D): 32%

But when given critical information regarding Alexander, such as receiving $360,000 in contributions from “big oil interests,” the numbers slip a bit for the Republican:

Lamar Alexander (R-inc.): 49%

Bob Tuke (D): 39%

I doubt that this would be enough to cost Alexander his seat. This isn’t 2006 we’re looking at, and the only way to put a good dent in Lamar’s numbers appears to be tying him to “big oil.”

Update: Still, if you have some spare dough lying around, never hurts to donate some sympathy cash to Mr. Tuke right here.

NC-08: Hayes Leads by 10 In His Own Internal

Public Opinion Strategies for Robin Hayes and the NRCC (8/4-5, likely voters):

Larry Kissell (D): 40

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Kissell released his own internal poll of this race back in June, and in that survey (by Anzalone Liszt), Hayes trailed Kissell by two points.

Hayes’ spread isn’t far off from the most recent poll we’ve seen of this race, by Public Policy Polling last month. That poll showed Hayes leading by seven points and resting well under the 50% mark (43-36).

SSPers have already pointed out that Kissell’s name recognition seems artificially low in this poll — his favorability is at 14-11. While it is generally true that running and losing a House campaign doesn’t buy you as much name recognition as some might expect (which I think may be especially true for a low-money, under-the-radar type of candidate in Larry Kissell), I do agree that these numbers seem a bit too low, especially when you consider that Hayes launched a round of unanswered attack ads earlier this summer against Kissell. (Indeed, PPP’s July poll showed Kissell with 52% name recognition.) If we are to take Hayes’ poll at face value, his ads had little effect in driving up Kissell’s negatives. Can you say “waste of money”?

Another important data point to note is the date range of the poll. The poll ended on August 5th, the same day that Kissell began his first ad buy of the campaign. (That ad is available for viewing here.)

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: JeremiahTheMessiah)

AK-AL, AK-Sen: Young Clings to Small Primary Lead; Begich Still Ahead

Ivan Moore Research (8/9-12, likely voters, 7/18-22 in parens):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51 (52)

Don Young (R-inc.): 41 (37)

Don Wright (I): 4 (7)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 42 (40)

Sean Parnell (R): 46 (43)

Don Wright (I): 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Just minor noise since July. Let’s check in with the primaries:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 58 (54)

Diane Benson (D): 24 (25)

Don Wright (D?): 3 (5)

(MoE: ?)

Don Young (R-inc.): 46 (46)

Sean Parnell (R): 40 (38)

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 7 (6)

(MoE: ?)

Young continues to hang on by his fingernails, but will this GOP roach be able to survive the Club For Growth’s moneynuke? Let’s hope so, but it could be a tall order. On the bright side for Team Blue, Alaskans are continuing to wake up to headlines and stories like this one calling Gov. Sarah Palin’s ethics (and therefore Lt. Gov. Parnell’s raison d’être) into question.

On the Senate side of the equation, Begich posts another solid lead (7/30-31 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 56 (56)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 39 (35)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Stevens continues to pummel his D-grade primary challengers by a 63-20-7 margin (Stevens-Cuddy-Vickers).

Ivan Moore polls AK-Sen and AK-AL all around

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Ivan Moore Research – 501 Registered voters

8/9-12  MoE 4.4% – 7/22 in Parenthesis

Republican Primary (AK-AL)

Young – 46% (46)

Parnell – 40% (38)

LeDoux – 7% (6)

Democratic Primary (AK-AL)

Berkowitz – 58% (54)

Benson – 24% (25)

Wright – 3% (5)

—-

General Election for AK-AL


Berkowitz – 51% (52)

Young – 41% (37)

—-

Parnell – 46% (43)

Berkowitz – 42% (40)

AK-Sen Primary (7/31 in parenthesis)


Stevens – 63% (59)

Cuddy – 20% (19)

Vickers – 7% (-)

Other – 3%

AK-Sen General

Begich – 56% (56)

Stevens – 39% (35)

AK & FL Pre-Primary Fundraising Reports Round-up

With congressional primaries in Alaska and Florida on August 26th, tonight was the deadline for candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC. I’ve rounded up the numbers of interest, covering the period of July 1st through August 6th, in the chart below. All figures are in thousands.

Christine Jennings has yet to file her report, but once she does, it will be available here.