Swing State Project

Benenson Strategy Group for the DSCC and Andrew Rice (8/12-14, likely voters, June in parens):

Andrew Rice (D): 41 (33)

Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 50 (53)

(MoE: ±4%)

Some nice movement for Rice, whose primary victory and recent statewide ad buys have apparently helped him close the gap to nine points. The best sign for Rice continues to be the interest of the DSCC, which has already sent field staff to Oklahoma, and helped supply Rice’s campaign with some top shelf talent.

Jay Love must be fuming. As Danny over at Doc’s Political Parlor reports, the Republican mayor of Dothan, the heavily conservative population anchor of the Wiregrass portion of the southeastern corner of the district, has given his endorsement to Democrat Bobby Bright:

Republican Dothan Mayor Pat Thomas crossed the aisle today to endorse Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright’s Democratic bid for the 2nd Congressional District seat. Thomas is the John McCain campaign’s Mayoral Chair for the state of Alabama, has served on the Republican Executive Committee of Houston County, and says that he has never voted for a Democrat on a national level. Thomas was also a member of the Wiregrass’s “unofficial Congressional Selection Committee” that united early behind the candidacy of Republican state Sen. Harri Anne Smith in an effort to ensure that the next Representative from AL-02 was from the Wiregrass.

Political Parlor has the full text of the endorsement. At a population of 85,000 and the base of state Sen. Harri Anne Smith, whom Love defeated in a nasty primary, Bright’s performance in Dothan will be crucial for his chances of victory this November. This is huge.

The GOP has long faced tough odds in the battle of the House. In an election year that promises to be just as Democratic-leaning than 2006, many vulnerable Republican incumbents chose to retire rather than wage a tough battle. Few high-profile Republicans agreed to jump in the races thus left open or to challenge the Democratic freshmen incumbents that were supposedly so vulnerable. And the fundraising disparity between the DCCC and NRCC was obvious from the first days of financial reports of the 2008 cycle.

The road has not been getting any easier for Republicans. While no new incumbent retired and while GOP chances are improving in high-profile districts (NH-01, LA-06 and PA-11), Democrats are continuing to expand the map. 13 GOP-held seats have been moved to a more vulnerable column since the June ratings – compared to only 2 Dem-held districts. There is now a total of 56 GOP-held seats on this list versus 34 Dem-held seats.

It is unlikely that future cycles would be this skewed towards Democrats, and the DCCC is eager to strike at the core of the GOP base, for it might not have another shot at them for a very long time. In this context, the importance of the financial disparity between the DCCC and the NRCC cannot be overstated: Money counts for more in House races than in Senate and presidential contests, and the DCCC’s ability to flex its financial muscle is already evident. Over the past month, the Democratic committee reserved a total of $53 million of air time in 51 districts, 34 of which are currently held by the GOP. That’s a very large playing field to invest in.

This money is not an actual buy – only a reservation – and the committee can pull the plug on any of this spending. In fact, it is likely that the millions the DCCC has reserved in seats like NY-13 , IL-14 and NY-25 will not even be spent – as these already look like probable Democratic victories – and that money could be relocated to other races. And consider that the $53 million the DCCC has reserved in the fall is within the $58 million of cash on hand it had at the end of June. If the DCCC keeps up its fundraising of $10 million/month, it could very well follow through on all the money it has already reserved (which would by itself be a huge money bomb) and still have as much as $40 million to spend!

Republicans, on the other hand, will face painful choices. In many conservative districts which lean Republican but in which the Democrats are injecting millions, the GOP candidates will be on their own, fighting the blue wave swamped under Democratic spending. Indeed, if the NRCC spends some of its small war chest on districts like FL-18, LA-07 and NM-02, what money will they have left to help their candidates in more obviously competitive districts – NM-01, KS-02, NY-26 or MO-06?

If the situation becomes bad enough that the GOP has to build a firewall in its third-tier of races (places like FL-18 and ID-01), the first and second-tier might find itself entirely submerged and Democrats might post huge gains. If the country’s mood balances itself a little and if John McCain manages to limit the electorate’s anti-Republican behavior, the third-tier could find itself much safer than it is now – and the GOP might be able to spend its resources on the first and second-tier, significantly limiting its losses.

So will we have a repeat of 2006, with Republicans powerless to stop the blue tsunami though they will probably score some gains of their own this time? Or a district-by-district battle that will still be fought with a clear Democratic edge? That is the key question of the upcoming months, and the answer will have much to do with the dynamics of the presidential race.

As always, I have written full descriptions of seats that have made news since early June. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to the seats that saw their ratings change to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less vulnerable Democratic seats: IL-08, IN-07, PA-07, OR-05
• Less vulnerable Republican seats: CA-52, IL-06, MN-06

• More vulnerable Democratic seats: LA-06, PA-11
• More vulnerable Republican seats: AL-02, AL-03, FL-18, FL-25, LA-07, NV-02, NV-03, NY-29, PA-03, VA-05, VA-10, VA-11, WV-02

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 13-22 seats. My current prediction is a net pick-up of 17, for a 253-182 Democratic majority.

History of House ratings:

• June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
• February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
• November: How many more Republican retirements?
• October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
• September: Democrats poised to keep majority

Republican seats, Likely take-over (3)

• NY-13 (open): In my previous ratings, I wrote that “in no other seat did Republican chances collapse as much and as quickly as in this Staten Island seat.” Little did I know how much further the GOP’s chances would collapse. Shortly after, the candidate Republicans had settled on passed away mid-June, leaving the GOP with no candidate once more. Followed a stunning series of Staten Island Republicans refusing to take on the role as the party’s sacrificial lamb and an increasingly acrimonious split between the Staten Island GOP and the Conservative Party. They each ended up settling on their own candidate, former state Rep. Robert Staniere for the GOP and retired banker Paul Atanasio for conservatives. That dual candidacy all but guarantees that Democratic candidate Mike McMahon will win in November – but consider that the situation could have gotten worse for the GOP: at some point in June, there was some talk of their endorsing McMahon!
• NY-25 (open)
• VA-11 (open, upgraded polls): Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, won a low turnout Democratic primary on July 11th and will now face Republican businessman  Keith Fimian, whose main advantage is that he can self-fund a race. In this blue-leaning district in increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia, Connolly is heavily favored and should benefit from the Obama’s campaign’s  focus on NoVa.  An internal poll released by the Connolly campaign shows the Democrat leading by 31%.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AK-AL (Rep. Young, polls): The Republican primary is being held on August 26th, and Rep. Don Young is in great danger against Lieutenant Governor Parnell. The Club for Growth is spending heavily on Parnell’s behalf, and Ted Stevens’ indictment could not have come at a worst time for  Young as it put the focus on the state GOP’s corruption scandals. Sarah Palin endorsed Parnell recently, calling him “honest” and “conservative” – a way to highlight the two charges Young faces (overspending and ethics). If Young somehow survives the primary, the race could move to the likely take-over column; if Parnell becomes his party’s nominee, Democrats will have a tougher time and the race will become a toss-up. The latest poll has Parnell narrowly ahead of Berkowitz but Young trailing widely.
• AZ-01 (Open)
• IL-11 (Open)
• NJ-03 (Open): Not only are Democrats already favored to pick-up this district, but the DCCC decision to reserve $1.7 million worth of air time in the district should be all state Senator John Adler needs to clinch victory. Sure, the media market is expensive, and the DCCC does not have to spend that money, but when the moment comes for the NRCC to decide which races it will spend its small money on, it is unlikely NJ-03 will make the cut.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (3)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)
• LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, upgraded): Following his special election victory in May, Don Cazayoux was favored to win re-election. But two developments have complicated things for Democrats here. First, Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson, who was defeated in the Dem primary, decided to run as an independent. He is African-American and represents Baton Rouge, the part of the district in which Cazayoux needs to build huge margins. Second, Woody Jenkins, the GOP nominee in the special election, decided not to run in the special election. Jenkins was a tarnished candidate whose controversial profile doomed Republican chances. The general election will now feature two Democrats and a Republican whose name will not be Jenkins. That could be enough for Bill Cassidy to win the seat back for the GOP.
• TX-22 (Rep. Lampson)

Republican seats, Toss-up (15)

• AL-02 (Open, upgraded, polls): As expected, Democrats nominated Bobby Bright, the   conservative  mayor of Montgomery who was affiliated to neither party before he jumped in this race. The Republican candidate is state Senator Jay Love, who survived a contentious primary. This district is so overwhelmingly Republican that it should be impossible for a Democrat to win, but that Bright chose to run as a Democrat suggests otherwise. After all, Bright could just as easily filed as a Republican – and was courted by the NRCC. Three polls of these race were released in the space of 10 days, suggesting that Bright might have an edge: Love had a narrow 2% lead in his campaign’s internal poll, but Bright’s internal that showed him leading by 10% was confirmed by an independent poll that found the same margin.
• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): In 04 and 06, independent groups attacked Musgrave with some memorable advertisements (most famously this 2004 ad of a Musgrave impersonator stealing from a soldier’s pocket). Now, it looks like Musgrave will be a target of outside groups yet again, with Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund already spending $175,000 on this ad focused on energy issues. The DCCC has already reserved $600,000 worth of advertisement in this district, not a huge amount considering that the Denver market is not cheap, but a strong start that should boost Betsy Markey’s efforts.
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk)
• MN-03 (Open)
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes, polls)
• NJ-07 (Open)
• NM-01 (Open, polls): When Heather Wilson announced she would not run for re-election, most Democrats expected this seat to be a relatively easy pick-up. But Darren White is one of the only strong recruitment coups of the NRCC this cycle, and it seems like he will at least succeed at keeping the race close. The two campaigns exchanged dueling internal polls in July showing their own candidate in the lead.
• NV-03 (Rep. Porter, <span style=”font-weight:bold;”>upgraded</span&gt): Rep. Porter barely survived his 2006 re-election race against a political newcomer and his district has gotten much more Democratic since then. Highly-touted Democratic candidate Robert Daskas dropped out in April, leading to Senate Minority Leader and former gubernatorial candidate Dona Titus to join the race. Titus is a high-profile candidate who guarantees the race remains in the spotlight. Nevada Democrats are especially interested in defeating Porter this year, as he would be one of the toughest challengers for Senator Harry Reid in 2010. An internal poll released by the Titus campaign showed the Democrat narrowly ahead.
• NY-26 (Open): We will know more about this race after the primaries decide which Democrat will move on to the general election: Iraq War veteran J<span>on Power or controversial self-funder Jack Davis, who is injecting millions of his own money in the race after getting the Supreme Court to struck down the Millionaire’s amendment?</span&gt
• NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl, <span style=”font-weight:bold;”>upgraded</span&gt): The DCCC has reserved $2.7 million in the upstate New York media market, a sum that can be spent on this race, as well as NY-25 and NY-26. It is unlikely that Maffei will need that much money in NY-25, meaning that Eric Massa will receive a prodigious amount of money from the national party. Considering the state of disarray New York Republicans are in, that could be enough for Democrats to complete the job they started in 2006, when Kuhl survived by 2%. For now, the election is being waged on energy issues, with Massa embracing the GOP rhetoric to demand a special session on the issue.
• OH-01 (Rep. Chabot): Two factors that will determine this race is whether Barack Obama’s candidacy succeeds in boosting black turnout, and how much the GOP will bleed support in the traditionally Republican suburbs. An internal poll released in July by the Chabot campaign showed him leading 50% to 37%.
• OH-15 (Open): This seat is a disappointment for Democrats. When Rep. Pryce announced she would retire back in 2007, Dems felt really good about the chances of Mary Jo Kilroy. But GOP scored one of its best recruitment coups with state Senator Steve Stivers. In another year, this race would be a purer toss-up; in 2006, Kilroy remains slightly favored but  OH-015 is far from the clear pick-up opportunity it was a few months back. A SUSA poll released in August showed Kilroy ahead by 3%.
• OH-16 (Open)
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert, polls): Darcy Burner had a tough summer, as her house entirely burned down in the beginning of July, taking her off the campaign trail for a while. Yet, Burner  is one of the best-funded House challengers: she raised more in the second quarter and she has more cash-on-hand than her opponent, GOP incumbent Rep. Reichert. The race promises to be just as tight as it was in 2006, and we will see whether Burner can ride presidential coattails.
• WY-AL (Open)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (9)

• AL-05 (Open, had forgotten before): We have known that AL-05 would be one of the most endangered Democratic-held seats since the day Rep. Cramer announced he would retire back in March. For some reason, I forgot to include it in my previous ratings – and the seat’s sudden appearance in the toss-up column should not be interpreted as the GOP gaining ground over the past two months. Both parties selected their nominees, state Senator Parker Griffith for Democrats and Wayne Parker for Republicans. This is a very conservative district (Bush got 60% in 2004) and the GOP has to be very frustrated that they are not doing better here – this is the type of red seats they need to claim to have a chance at regaining the House majority any time soon.
• CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
• GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
• IN-09 (Rep. Hill, polls)
• KS-02 (Rep. Boyda, polls): In early August, state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (who represents the moderate wing of the state’s GOP) narrowly defeated conservative, who was defeated in 2006. She will now take on Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda, who is one of the most endangered Democrats of the cycle. It is difficult to assess the race until we know how deep the wounds from the GOP primary: how will the district’s more conservative voters react to Jenkins’s general election candidacy? The Kansas GOP, after all, has been split in ideological feuds for years. Boyda, meanwhile, is planning a repeat of her 2006 grassroots campaign and has convinced the DCCC to not spend any money on her re-election race, leaving her all alone to fight her opponent.
• NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter, polls): Defeating Carol Shea-Porter has been one of the GOP’s top priorities ever since the Democrat posted the biggest upset of Election Night 2006. Rep. Bradley is running for his own seat – but he first has to defeat John Stephen in what should be a crucial primary. The New Hampshire Union Leader has endorsed Stephen, in what could be a crucial show of support for the more conservative Republican. A recent UNH poll showed that Shea-Porter would be in great danger against both GOPers, though she would have more breathing room against Stephen.
• PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
• PA-10 (Rep. Carney)
• PA-11 (Rep. Paul Kanjorski, upgraded): Kanjorski is a long-term Democratic incumbent who is facing a more difficult re-election race than many of the freshmen of the 2006 class. That is due both to his opponent, Lou Barletta, who has become a high-profile Republican due to his harsh stance on immigration, and to the fact that he has neglected to build a strong local organization due to the fact that he has not faced a tough election. Barletta has released two internal polls showing him narrowly ahead, and while Democrats have not made their own polls public there is no doubt the DCCC is very worried: they have already spent a total of $260,000 on this district and are running ads on Kanjorski’s behalf.

Republican seats, Lean retention (17)

• CA-04 (Open)
• FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan): In this rematch of the bitterly disputed 2006 election (in which Vern Buchanan scored a controversial 369 vote victory), both candidates are already on air, setting the tone for what is sure to be a bitter and emotional few months.
• FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart): See the description of FL-25 (below) for more context, as the FL-21 race similarly pits two Cuban-Americans and a battle on Miami airwaves. A recent poll had the Republican incumbent leading by only 4% against Martinez.
• FL-24 (Rep. Feeney)
• FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, upgraded): The battle for Southern Florida is reaching fever pitch here, with Diaz-Balart facing fellow Cuban-American Joe Garcia. The Diaz-Balarts might not be used to highly competitive elections, but the DCCC’s decision to reserve $1.4 million worth of air time this fall in the Miami market (the money will be spent on FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25) guarantees that this area will be ground zero of the House battle – and one that will test whether the allegiance of Cuban-Americans is at all shifting away from the GOP. A poll released in July had Garcia trailing by 5%.
• IL-18 (Open)
• KY-02 (Open)
• LA-04 (Open): This is not the type of district in which Democrats are expected to compete (how many times have I used those words in these house ratings?) but the retirement of Rep. McCrery has given Democrats an opening they are ready to exploit. The Democratic candidate, Paul Carmouche, is the DA of the parish in which the district is located, while the GOP will have to wait for its crowded primary to be settled. We will have to wait to get a better idea of the general election match-up, but it is obvious that Democrats are hopeful: Carmouche released an internal poll finding him ahead of all his potential opponents, and even if that advantage comes from a better name recognition will Republican candidates have the funds to address that in the three months ahead? The DCCC has reserved more than $700,000 worth of ad time for the fall, a large buy in this relatively cheap district.
• MI-07 (Rep. Walberg, polls): Conflicting internal polls released by the Walberg and Schauer campaigns showed the GOP incumbent leading by 16% and by 3% – but in both cases under 50%. But Mark Schauer is out-raising his Republican opponent, and the DCCC has already budgeted a substantial investment this fall.
• MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg)
• MO-06 (Rep. Graves, polls)
• MO-09 (Open): Both parties settled on their nominees in early August. Republicans nominated Blaine Luetkemeyer, while Democrats chose their more liberal option, Judy Baker. The Democrat’s base is in the district’s urban centers, so she will have to run up the margins there while holding on in its rural parts. One advantage Republicans will have: current GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof will be running statewide in the gubernatorial race, potentially allowing Luetkemeyer to ride his coattails.
• NM-02 (Open)
• OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt)
• PA-03 (Rep. English, upgraded): In a close district at the presidential level, Rep. English is favored but Democrats remember that he only got 54% in 2006 despite the opposition barely contesting the race. This year, Democrats have nominated a pro-lifer, Kathy Dahlkemper, who released an internal poll showing her ahead by 1%! That’s not enough to get Republicans panicked, but neither English nor the RNCC have released a poll to counter Dahlkemper’s…
• VA-02 (Rep. Drake)
• WV-02 (Rep. Capito, upgraded): In a district that has become Republican over the past decade, Shelley Capito has looked increasingly solid over her re-election races. But as the only GOP office-holder in what remains a Democratic state at the local level, she is a perennial target for Democrats. The party is excited by the candidacy of Anne Barth – and while Emily’s List did not have a great track record in 2006 and over the past few months, their endorsement should at least guarantee that Barth remains well-funded.

Democratic seats, Lean retention (13)

• AZ-05 (Rep. Mitchell)
• AZ-08 (Rep. Giffords, polls)
• CT-05 (Rep. Murphy)
• GA-12 (Rep. Barrow)
• IL-08 (Rep. Bean, downgraded): In a neutral year, Melissa Bean is sure to be one of her party’s most vulnerable incumbents. But in a Democratic year and in the state of Barack Obama, Bean should have some breathing room. She also knows that she will always be targeted by the GOP and she fundraises and organizes accordingly. Her opponent <span>Steve Greenberg is highly-touted by the GOP, but he will need to quicken his fundraising pace and find new attack angles to come out on top.
• KS-03 (Rep. Moore)
• KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, polls): Anne Northup is attempting to come back to Congress after a failed gubernatorial run in 2007. In a district that leans ever so slightly Democratic at the presidential level, Northup needs to run a flawless campaign but for now her camp seems to be in disarray after a staff shake-up that has left her without a campaign manager.
• MS-01 (Rep. Childers)
• NY-19 (Rep. Hall)
• NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
• MN-1 (Rep. Walz)
• OR-05 (Open, downgraded): Along with AL-05, this is one of only two Democratic-held open seats that is competitive. But GOP prospects are plummeting because of the candidacy of Mike Erickson. Back in may, Erickson was viciously attacked by his primary opponent Kevin Manni for having paid his girlfriend’s abortion years ago. Right to Life immediately blasted Erickson, but all that drama unfolded too late to damage Erickson in a state in which most voters sent their ballot in early via mail. Erickson prevailed in the primary. If there was any doubt then that the abortion story would damage his chances, the story soon got worse for Erickson: the woman whose abortion Erickson allegedly paid forconfirmed the story to to the  Oregonian and blasted Erickson’s pro-life record. conservative activists.
• WI-8 (Rep. Kagen, polls)

Republican seats, likely retention (17)

• AL-03 (open, upgraded): This is a long-shot race for Democrats for sure, but the DCCC appears to have taken an interest in Alabama races – and the local press has taken notice. Democratic nominee Joshua Segall will be helped by the fact that AL-02 and AL-05 are both featuring contested races, in the hope that a mention of his own contest will be inserted in other House stories.
• FL-8 (Rep. Keller)
• FL-15 (open)
• FL-18 (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, upgraded): This is the third race in the Southern Florida battle, and while the Republican incumbent seems safer than in neighboring FL-21 and FL-25, the money the DCCC will spent in the Miami market could just as easily be spent here than in the other races. (We will have to wait and see the size of the investment.) An independent poll of the race had Ros-Lehtinen leading 51% to 38% against Annette Taddeo, a decent margin but certainly not enough to keep the race out of these ratings.
• ID-01 (Rep. Sali): That this district is even on the list is just as stunning this year than it was 2 years ago. But Bill Sali still has a rocky relationship with his state’s GOP and his Democratic opponent Walt Minnick is outraising him – a stunning feat for an Idaho Democrat. And the DCCC has reserved nearly $350,000 of media time for the fall – a small investment for them to make but one that is big by Idaho standards (compared to a buy in the Chicago area, it gets almost twice the amount of time with $1 million less!)
• IL-06 (Rep. Roskam, downgraded): In 2006, IL-06 was the DCCC’s heart-breaker and a source of anger for many party activists who protested the millions the national party wasted in this district at the expense of other races like NC-08. This year, the DCCC found someone else from the military to run, Jill Morgenthaler; she is sure to be even less exciting to local activists than Duckworth was, as she was the Army spokeswoman during the Abu Graib scandal. This is a swing district at the presidential level, and Morgenthaler could be helped by Obama’s presence at the top of the ticket. But a recent internal poll released by Rep. Roskam shows her crushing the Democrat by 30%.
• LA-07 (Rep. Boustany, <span style=”font-weight:bold;”>upgraded</span&gt): Democrats have suddenly taken interest in Louisiana’s House races – including this conservative seat few people expected to see competitive. State Senator Don Cravins entered the race in mid-June and could take advantage of the area’s substantial African-American population. Boustany only picked up the seat for Republicans in 2004, after all, and the DCCC has added Cravins to its Red to Blue list.
• MD-01 (Open)
• MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann, <span style=”font-weight:bold;”>downgraded</span&gt): Of all open seats Democrats were contesting in 2006, MN-06 was particularly disappointing, as very conservative GOPer Michelle Bachmann won by a decent 8%. This year’s Democratic candidate, <span>Elwyn Tinklenberg, should force Bachmann to play defense but he has been significantly outraised and the DCCC might not be as eager to play in the district.
• NV-02 (Rep. Heller, upgraded): This seat should not be expected to be competitive, as Bush got 57% in both 2000 and 2004. But Heller’s first election back in 2006 was surprisingly weak and the Democrat he vanquished, Jill Derby, is back for a rematch. The seat has been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, so Derby could receive some assistance by the national committee. And while Heller starts as the clear favorite, the seat will test how much Nevada’s demographics have evolved in the past decade.
• OH-07 (Open)
• OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
• PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach)
• PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
• PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
• VA-05 (Rep. Goode, upgraded): Democrats are touting Tom Pariello’s chances in this conservative district, and in a sign that this is not all talk the DCCC has added Pariello to its Red to Blue program. But there is no doubt that this remains a long-shot for Democrats. A recent poll conducted by SUSA showed Goode with a 34% lead.
• VA-10 (Rep. Wolf, upgraded): Just like in VA-05, Democrats are making enough noise about VA-10 that the seat ought to at least be added to the list of potentially competitive  districts. Bush won VA-10 with 55% in 2004 – not an unsurmountable Republican lean. The DCCC has added Judy Feder to its Red to Blue list, in what will be a rematch of the 2006 election which Rep. Wolf won by 16%.

Democratic seats, likely retention (9)

• CT-02 (Rep. Courtney)
• IL-14 (Rep. Foster)
• IN-02 (Rep. Donnelly)
• IN-07 (Rep. Carson, downgraded): Andre Carson won a special election this spring against state Rep. Jon Elrod, a Republican who would have done better in another year and if the NRCC had had more money to come to his rescue. Carson already looked like the favorite for the November rematch, but he now is even safer as Elrod announced he would give up on his congressional candidacy and run for re-election instead.
• IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth)
• NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
• OH-18 (Rep. Space)
• PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
• TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

Posted on Campaign Diaries.

Last Updated: November 2, 2008 at 10:00 PM

Key:

• AANSPAC: American Association of Neurological Surgeons PAC
• AAOS: American Association of Orthopaedic Surgeons PAC
• AFRA: Alliance for Retired Americans Political Action Fund
• AFSCME: American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
• AGCAPAC: Associated General Contractors of America PAC
• AHAPAC: American Hospital Association
• AMAPAC: American Medical Association PAC
• ASAPAC: America Society of Anesthesiologists PAC
• BAPAC: Blue America PAC
• CFG: Club for Growth
• CSII: Common Sense Issues, Inc.
• CULAC: Credit Union National Association PAC
• DCCC: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
• DWAF: Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund
• EFPAC: Eagle Forum PAC
• EMILY: EMILY’s List
• Grigsby: Leonard Lane Grigsby
• HSLF: Humane Society Legislative Fund
• IDDP: Idaho Democratic Party
• IDRP: Idaho Republican Party
• LCV: League of Conservation Voters
• LFR: Let Freedom Ring
• Minutemen: Minutemen PAC
• MIRP: Michigan Republican Party
• NARPAC: National Association of Realtors PAC
• NEDSCC: Nebraska Democratic State Central Committee
• NEMPAC: National Emergency Medicine PAC
• NRA: National Rifle Assocation
• NRCC: National Republican Congressional Committee
• NRLPAC: National Right to Life PAC
• NERP: Nebraska Republican Party
• NWFAF: National Wildlife Federation Action Fund
• OB-GYNS: OB-GYNS for Women’s Health PAC
• OPHTHPAC: American Academy of Ophthalmology PAC
• OHRP: Ohio Republican Party
• PP: Planned Parenthood
• RCCNM: Republican Campaign Committee of New Mexico
• RMSP: Republican Main Street Partnership
• MNRP: Minnesota Republican Party
• Safari: Safari Club
• SEIU: Service Employees International Union
• TAPAC: Team America PAC
• TISBPAC: Trust in Small Business PAC
• TNDP: Tennessee Democratic Party
• VFW: Veterans of Foreign Wars PAC
• WFP: New York State Committee of the Working Families Party

Where do you even begin with shit like this?

“If ever there was an election with consequences, this presidential election is a case in point,” Schock said while speaking at the fair’s Director’s Lawn at the Republican Day rally.

“The last time we had this level of socialism being proposed and inexperience at the helm was Jimmy Carter,” said Schock (who was born four months after Democrat Carter left office in 1981).

Words fail.

(H/T: Progress Illinois)

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Sometimes, I still feel disappointed about this election. Sometimes, I keep asking myself “Where’s Hillary?” Sometimes, I become frightened at the thought of Democrats losing. Sometimes, I still wish I could see Hillary back on the campaign trail again.

Sometimes, I wonder what the hell I’m doing now. But you know what? I just can’t keep looking back. I can’t let Hillary down now.

After all that I did for Hillary, how can say no to her now? That’s what keeps me going. That’s what continues to prod me forward. That’s what keeps me pushing for Democrats.

Hillary has done so much for us. She proved to me that no one can hold us back. She taught us that yes, we can pursue our dreams. She showed us that with hard work and true grit, we can accomplish anything.

So why am I freaking out over a couple of lousy polls for Barack Obama? Why am I allowing the Rethuglican hacks to scare me into submission again? Why must I worry myself into complete depression when John McBush still can’t build up a lead? While this latest rough patch has taught me not to become to complacent in “likely victory”, there’s also no reason for me to commit suicide over this.

After all, Hillary keeps fighting for us… Even when all the pundits & DC insiders count her out. And if she can keep working for a Democratic victory this fall, so can I. If she can continue fighting, so can I.

There’s far too much at stake for us to lose. We desperately need a Democrat in the White House to right Bush’s wrongs. Oh yes, and we need a Democratic Congress to help President Obama do that.

When I was in Nevada this past January campaigning for Hillary, I had the time of my life. One of my best memories from that trip was seeing Hillary in person for the first time at a campaign event in the Las Vegas suburb of Henderson. I was amazed by her intelligence, her wit, her beauty, and her grace. But you know who also amazed me? I also remember seeing a state senator by the name of Dina Titus impress me with her breadth of knowledge on Nevada issues along with her warm, soulful personality. I was excited when I later found out that Dina Titus is now running for Congress, and I couldn’t help but to make sure I was of help to her.

When I was starring to become depressed about the state of the Presidetial Race in May, I found a new cause to enthusiastically jump into. Like Hillary, Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook is another strong woman who doesn’t stop fighting when the going gets tough. I’ve been able to witness her commitment to environmental justice here in Orange County, CA, and we’ll all be well served to have people like Debbie serve us in Congress. I’m sure that would make Hillary smile.

So this is why I keep fighting. This is why I keep working so damn hard for Democrats. I want to see more people like Hillary take office and fight for us. If she won’t ever give up on us, let’s not give up on her and the causes she believes in.

Let’s not give up now. Let’s keep fighting. We can stay strong. If Hillary can do it, so can we. 🙂

If the GOP’s chances of winning the open seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley took a big hit with the nomination of scandal-chased Republican businessman Mike Erickson (who was last seen harassing voters at county fairs), it looks like the dream is continuing to unravel further and further by the day.

In the diaries, skywaker9 picks up the scoop from the Oregonian: In his campaign materials, Erickson has been boasting of a heroic “humanitarian trip” that he took to Cuba in 2004, which he describes in detail:

Four years ago I was given an opportunity to make a humanitarian trip to Cuba, providing medical supplies and equipment to the disabled and Cuba’s impoverished. The Cuban American Alliance Education Fund was looking for donors to help raise money and deliver supplies and equipment to Cuba’s less fortunate. I was able to purchase badly needed medical supplies and equipment from the US and bring them to Cuba’s disabled and poverty stricken communities.

The trip also provided me the opportunity to see firsthand just how horrific Castro’s stronghold on the nation had oppressed and mistreated people. The living conditions and healthcare were horrible.

The only problem? A copy of Erickson’s itinerary, obtained by the Oregonian, suggests that the “humanitarian” aspect of the trip was merely a cover for a lavish vacation that centered on luxury hotels, sunny beaches, mojitos, and something called “Comandante Fidel Castro’s Annual Gala Cigar Dinner and Auction”. A sampling of the activities on his agenda during the seven-day trip included:

A tour of the Partagas cigar factory and a special reception with the company’s president

Rides in “vintage automobiles”

Dinner at the exclusive “Club Havana”

Dove shooting

A classy evening out “at the cock fights”

What’s more, the itinerary also indicates that the company sponsoring the trip (“Safari Clubs International”) was willing to provide travelers who could not obtain a humanitarian license to visit Cuba with forged papers indicating that they spent their time in Mexico instead. There’s no telling if Erickson himself was provided with this special treatment, but perhaps the Oregonian’s forthcoming article will shed more light on his totally excellent Cuban adventure.

Mike Erickson, you’ve just been nailed.

UPDATE: The full, damning exposé is available here. The best part? Erickson sputtering in his defense: “If that’s not a humanitarian trip, I don’t know what is!” Yes, because no humanitarian trip is complete without a wild and crazy night out at “a Ricky Ricardo-style nightclub with showgirls.”

The TV market split for the MO-9 primaries

Democratic Primary

Columbia (25K): 54/26 Baker

Hannibal (11.8K): Bode 39, Gaw 32, Baker 26

St. Louis (11K): 44/37 Baker

Kirksville (3133): 49/36 Gaw

Overall, Columbia carried the day for Baker while the strong showing in St. Louis helped increase her margin to 44/31. Bode’s showing in his home market was his only highlight. 4583 of his 6565 votes came from the Hannibal market.

Now, to the Republican primary, under the fold

Columbia (26K): Luetkemeyer 47, Moore 29, Onder 14

St. Louis (21.58K): Onder 46, Luetkemeyer 30

Kirksville (3330): Luetkemeyer 38, Onder 35

Hannibal (3303): Luetkemeyer 46, Onder 32

Basically Luetkemeyer pulled in the Columbia market, and pulled in enough of the rest of the district to hold back Bob Onder’s giant burlap bags of money.

The Hulshof/Steelman primary helped to lead to a 52/48 split. A reverse of 2006 when more voters voted for Duane Burghard than Kenny Hulshof in the uncontested primaries.

The total votes for primary candidates by market

Columbia (51K): 51/49 Republican

St. Louis (32.7K): 66/34 Republican

Hannibal (15K): 78/22 Democratic

Kirksville (6478): 51/48 Republican

Total: 51/48 Republican

(A big thanks to the Hannibal market for keeping it close)

Back in 2006, Hannibal and STL had the exact same percentages. Kirksville voted 65/35 Democratic, and Columbia voted 55/45 Democratic. The shifts is due to people voting for Hulshof in the Republican primary.

So basically the two nominees (Baker and Luetkemeyer) have some things they need to do to win in November.

Baker needs to

a) win a convincing majority in Boone County (which makes up at least half the votes in the Columbia media market). Luetkemeyer would be a favorite for the Columbia market south of the Missouri.

b) make a strong showing in the Hannibal area (which she did well in back in August)

c) Do pretty well in a market that Luetkemeyer did not win: St. Louis. STL gave Burghard 37% in 2006, so Baker can concievably build on her August showing to deal with an opponent who didn’t win the STL market in the primary

Luetkemeyer needs to

a) Hold on to as much of Boone County and Northeast Missouri as possible. He will probably not come close to the 57% that Hulshof won in Boone back in 2006. But he’s from the South End of the district (Miller County)

b) Do well in the traditionally Republican areas of the STL market in MO-9 (Warren, The St. Charles sliver in the district).

The impact of television markets is a bit more obvious in primaries. But this race should be one to watch and it should be interesting to see if we start off even, or if one candidate has a slight lead in the first polls.

There are many reasons to support Heather Ryan. Heather is a wife, veteran, and citizen of our district who has been active in politics for quite some time. She is educated, compassionate and smart. She represents the ideals Democrats espouse quite nicely. Most of all, she is not afraid to fight the Republicans for what we all believe in.

Besides all the good that Heather Ryan would bring to the Congress however, there are many other reasons to support Heather Ryan in this race. Not only can we expand our Congressional majorities by taking back a traditionally Democratic seat that has been in Republican hands since the failed “Contract with America” in 1994, but we have the votes of her opponent, Exxon Ed Whitfield, who has constantly opposed any kind of sane Progress in this country since 1994. There are so many bad things this man has done, I can’t list them all in 50 diaries, but want to show you all some of what we are fighting against.

First, just this year Exxon Ed Whitfield voted against equal pay and opportunity for women everywhere in this country:

Unequal Pay Bill

HR 1338: To amend the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 to provide more effective remedies to victims of discrimination in the payment of wages on the basis of sex, and for other purposes.

Representative Edward Whitfield voted NO

http://www.votesmart.org/issue…

Of course, with Heather Ryan hitting him hard on the campaign trail, one can understand his disconnection with women right now.

Much harder to understand is his disconnection with Children:

HR 3963: To amend title XXI of the Social Security Act to extend and improve the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and for other purposes.

Representative Edward Whitfield voted NO

http://www.votesmart.org/issue…

I think it speaks for itself when a Congressman can support every failed policy of a failed President, but votes against American children, all while claiming to run on “Christian values”.

He also has problems with allowing fair elections in our country:

HR 5803: To direct the Election Assistance Commission to establish a program to make grants to participating States and units of local government which will administer the regularly scheduled general election for Federal office held in November 2008 for carrying out a program to make backup paper ballots available in the case of the failure of a voting system or voting equipment in the election or some other emergency situation, and for other purposes.

Representative Edward Whitfield voted NO

http://www.votesmart.org/issue…

He also has a problem with Congress operating under the same ethics we all do:

H Res 1031: Providing for the adoption of the resolution (H. Res. 895) establishing within the House of Representatives an Office of Congressional Ethics, and for other purposes.

Representative Edward Whitfield voted NO

http://www.votesmart.org/issue…

Yes, there are many reasons to support Heather Ryan. Our campaign is gaining steam as we move towards the opening of our campaign headquarters on Thursday. Help up keep our momentum going here:

Even if you can’t donate, you can help us greatly. Heather is in the running to win a $5000 contribution from Russ Feingold’s Progressive Patriots fund. Please go here and vote for Heather, she is on the far left on the bottom row:

http://www.progressivepatriots…

Help fellow grassroots Democrats, and help our Democracy at the same time!!  

I had been hearing rumors from friends who work for the Oregonian that a major story was about to break concerning Mike Erickson.  I do not know if this story is it but it’s a fun one anyways.  Simply put, Mike Erickson claimed that he had taken a trip to Cuba in 2004 as an attempt to work with humanitarian organizations.  Instead, it appears that instead he used it as an excuse to have a good time, smoke a lot of Cuban cigars and have some fun cock fighting.

Major h/t to the Oregonian for this story: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2008/08/mike_ericksons_trip_to_cuba.html#comments

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

According to the Oregonian:

Mike Erickson, Republican candidate for the U.S. House, made a six-day visit to Cuba in 2004 that he described as a “humanitarian trip” to help disabled Cubans oppressed by Fidel Castro. But the visit was actually a vacation that included marlin fishing, nightclub visits and Cuban cigars.

, Link is above in the intro.

In a letter released to the Press, Erickson claims that he undertook this trip as a means to bring needed medical supplies to impoverished Cubans and that he observed first hand “just how horrific Castro’s stronghold on the nation had oppressed and mistreated people.”

Link to the letter here: http://blog.oregonlive.com/politics_impact/2008/08/IMAGE0001.pdf

His itinerary tells a far different story, however.  Instead of a humanitarian mission, it appears Erickson went down to Cuba to attend a cigar convention and have a good time living the life of luxury.  In fact, the itinerary seems to indicate that the company which sponsored his trip even provided some in his group (if not Erickson himself) with papers showing they never actually visited Cuba but Mexico.  I don’t know enough about the embargo to know whether this is any sort of problem but it sounds wrong at least.

Link to the itinerary here: http://blog.oregonlive.com/politics_impact/2008/08/IMAGE0002.pdf

What’s Next:

This is yet another blow to Erickson’s fast-fading chance to win this once thought to be tossup seat in Oregon.  I don’t know this will force Erickson out of the race but he has until August 26 if he wishes to do so, at which point the Republicans can name a replacement.

Let me know what you think.