Swing State Project

Democrats really only have one shot at beating scandal-tainted GOP Rep. Tom Feeney, and that’s by nominating a Democrat who has put together the resources and infrastructure that it takes to win. In this case, it’s former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, who has raised over $1.2 million for her campaign to date.

Tom Feeney would desperately love to avoid facing her in November, which is why he’s going to great lengths to lend an assist to Kosmas’ primary challenger, 2006 loser Clint Curtis, a candidate with all but $7,000 in the bank. The Orlando Sentinel has the gory deets:

Democrat Clint Curtis may have a new friend in Republican congressman Tom Feeney.

The third-term lawmaker from Oviedo — who defeated Curtis in 2006 – has been making robo-calls on behalf of Curtis, who is running for the US House again as an underdog in the Democratic primary against former state lawmaker Suzanne Kosmas.

In calls to Central Florida residents, a spokeswoman for the Feeney campaign lauds Curtis and calls him the “only Democrat taking on Tom Feeney that has consistently opposed the war in Iraq.” At the end of the call, the spokeswoman said the calls were “paid for by Tom Feeney for Congress.”

Even with Feeney propping him up, it’s hard to see a path for victory for Curtis, a guy who has only raised $80K for his campaign since the start of 2007, and one who isn’t treated seriously by the local media.

Primary: August 26th

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

UPDATE: Polls close at 9pm ET in Wyoming, and 11pm ET in Washington. Stay tuned for updates.

It’s primary day in Washington and Wyoming! By the end of the night, we’ll be able to gather some unique data from the hotly-contested gubernatorial and 8th CD races in Washington, as candidates from all parties will square off against each other on the same ballot, and the top two finishers will square off in the general election.

In Wyoming, state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis and rancher Mark Gordon will face off with several other candidates in a hotly-contested primary for the GOP nomination to succeed retiring wingnut Rep. Babs Cubin.

Now’s your chance to reach for Olympic SSP glory. Who will win these races, and by how much?

It’s been quite a while since I crunched some political numbers, so I thought I’d check back in with a series of diaries.  Today, the latest edition of the Bush approval map.

Click to enlarge.

My, that’s pretty!

Memo to Democrats:  this is an anvil for the falling Republicans.  Please use it.

For perspective, at the time of the 2006 Democratic electoral wave, this is what the map looked like:

Click to enlarge.

So why am I posting this on Swing State Project?  As I wrote many times before the 2006 election, low approval ratings represent an opportunity for Democrats, not a guarantee.  As it turned out, those who did not approve of Bush in 2006 voted for their Democratic House incumbent.  And those who did approve of Bush voted for their Republican House incumbent.  If a similar dynamic plays out this year, it means almost all Democratic House incumbents are safe, while almost any Republican could be unseated by the right candidate running a good, well-funded campaign.

So Bush approval represented, in 2006 at least, a minimum performance level for incumbent Republicans.  We can see a similar sort of effect in this year’s presidential race.  McCain does not poll worse than Bush’s approval in any state, but he comes close in a few places (Hawaii and Wyoming).  Here’s a map that shows the difference between McCain’s numbers (from Nate Silver’s trend-adjusted polling averages, captured last week) to Bush’s approval ratings:

Click to enlarge.

Note that this map does not show which states are most competitive.  Instead, it shows where McCain is more popular than Bush.  People who say they will vote for McCain but do not approve of Bush could do so for a number of reasons, and the numbers don’t tell us why or whether they’re different in different regions of the country.  It’s probably safe to say that there’s a home state effect in Hawaii, though.  McCain does best in comparison to Bush’s approval in Appalachia and the Northeast, and worst in the West and the Deep South.  It is suspiciously familiar to the Democratic primary maps.

Tomorrow, the series continues with a look at the biggest issues: the economy and Iraq.  After that, party approval, identification, and some House numbers.  And finally, if the FEC gets its numbers out, some fundraising numbers.

Cross posted at DailyKos and Open Left.

This one has been making the rounds today, but we finally have the opportunity to cut ‘er open and take a peak at its innards. SurveyUSA (8/13-14, likely voters, 7/11-13 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 39 (39)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46 (52)

Other: 11 (n/a)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

A 13-point gap turns into a 7-point gap, but what’s the X factor here? The Independence Party, who have fielded seven candidates in their primary field, including Dean Barkley (whose 15 minutes expired five and a half years ago). “Other” wasn’t an option in the July poll, and the change in methodology, it seems, has helped shave a few points off Coleman’s hide.

SUSA’s age breakdowns have attracted some skepticism in their prior polls, and Coleman continues to hold a 48-36 lead among 18-34 year-olds, but that’s down sharply from the 58-31 lead he held in the July poll.

Bonus finding: In the presidential race, Obama edges McCain by a mere two points. However, SUSA is finally showing Obama with a clear lead among younger voters; he holds a 51-43 lead among the 18-34 bracket, which seems more reasonable than the 48-48 tie among these voters in SUSA’s June poll of Minnesota.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Under intense fire after being nailed for exaggerating his depiction of a 2004 pleasure vacation to Cuba as a “humanitarian trip”, scandal-plagued GOP candidate Mike Erickson is firing back at the media, claiming that the voyage was “one-third” humanitarian:

Erickson maintained on Monday that he brought 20 boxes of medical supplies and delivered them to clinics over two days. He estimated he spent about “one-third” of his time in Cuba doing that.

The other two-thirds, he said, included casual conversations with regular Cubans, whether at a restaurant or on the streets.

“I did a lot of that in that two-thirds. Every time I was at dinner, I talked to the waiters and waitresses and, ‘Hey, you’re young, what do you want to do in life?” he said.

“The other two-thirds wasn’t just leisure, or just whatever it was. It was constantly always asking, ‘Hey, what’s going on in your country here?'”

He called The Oregonian’s story inaccurate and denied ever going marlin fishing, dove hunting, shooting any kind of animal or smoking an entire cigar.

Yup, stop the presses: Mike Erickson did not smoke a cigar from tip to tip while in Cuba.

You almost have to give Erickson credit for taking Clintonian parsing to new heights.

PS: What about cock-fighting, Mike?

cross-posted at Blue Hampshire

On Sunday I attended a Vets BBQ at the Sweeney VFW post in Manchester, NH to support the re-election of Carol-Shea Porter (D-NH) to the US Congress from the first district. An overflow crowd, they even ran out of hamburgers, greeted CSP and her guest in NH that day, Congressman Chet Edwards (D-TX) from the 17th district which includes the village of Crawford which is currently missing the idiot that is currently and woefully living in the White House, most woefully.

The two have become fast friends in DC as Congressman Edwards, Carol’s new BFF down there, is the chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction and VA (MILCON/VA). He came to NH to see what’s up first hand. He was impressed with the turnout at the event, so was I.

Carol’s remarks were brief and focused on the outrage that NH is currently the only state in America that does not have a full service VA hospital. Follow me below the fold for all the remarks because as Carol told us all in attendance: “There is no excuse.”

Bill Duncan’s first hand account including a lot more specifics about Carol and Edwards’s efforts in the state can be seen here: Veterans Turn Out for Carol Shea-Porter.

Edwards begins his introduction of Carol with a great anecdote which contains a really harsh and stark truth about the business of politics, bonus points to the Congressman. As I said earlier many people showed up for the BBQ. That surprised me especially on such a beautiful day when there have been many, many wash-out weekends this summer. I also noticed that it wasn’t the typical VFW crowd you would expect either. People were there from a variety of age groups, some brought their kids and many were younger. We even had an RFK grandson in attendance.

Video: Carol Shea-Porter in Manchester (8:03)

Edwards:

And I want to just say that one person can make a difference. I carry a very heavy burden on my life, I want you to know that when I was 26 years old, I had the gall to run against a former economics professor of mine for Congress …

I lost by 115 votes to a guy named Phil Gramm. I don’t want you to have the burden that I’ve felt since 1978. At least my credibility ought to be good because everything I said about him turned out to be true … My point is this, if I had had a meeting like this on a Sunday afternoon like this and this many people had gotten one extra person to go to the polls Phil Gramm ladder never would have become law.

No argument there, Congressman Edwards. There is certainly an urgency in every race from Obama on down in this cycle, but the down ballot races that don’t get the attention they deserve may very well be close all across the country. In 2006, Carol was swept into office against incumbent Jeb Bradley on the crest of a throw the bums out mentality. But this year Democrats all over the map have to hold those seats and they have to hold these seats on the record. It’s only been a couple of years and the record is not as strong and clear as it could be with Bush and the Senate filibuster blocking just about everything that Democrats were sent to Washington to do. It’s not going to be a tidal wave in this district this time around. And that could be true all over the country.

Carol then took to the mic:

When I first got to DC you know I realized that the Veteran’s Hospital has been closed for years now as a full service hospital. Nobody did anything about, why not? What do I have to do to bring it back? So I took a look down the list and said, “who do I have to talk to?” And I found Chet. And I ran up to Chet and said, “Chet, you are my new best friend.” He’s your best friend too, because he works very, very hard for Veterans.

He’s worked with me, he’s come to see what we’re talking about. We’ve met with the veterans and he’s going to carry that story back to Washington.

There’s just no excuse for not having either a full service hospital or equivalent care in your own community. (applause)

There’s also no excuse that our Congressmen and Senators knew this and stayed silent. There’s just no excuse…

If you signed up to serve your country from NH why shouldn’t you receive the same benefits as someone from Massachusetts? Or Connecticut? Or from Iowa? What wrong with us? We deserve the same treatment. (applause)

Carol tells us that it isn’t solely nobility that motivates her to act like a “squeaky wheel” on this issue in DC. No, she’s got “a dog in this fight too,” as a former military spouse she is directly affected by this outrage and judging from the remarks on Sunday Carol is personally invested in the well being of veterans around the state and in her district.

Far beyond the hot-button issue of the VA and health care in NH Carol talks about why this fight is so important to all the citizens of this country.

I checked with my husband and when he signed his papers, he didn’t check whether he was a republican or a Democrat. He was an American going to serve his country.

So we cannot discriminate and we cannot allow one party to hold back on treatment, opportunity and honoring commitments to the veterans. We have to serve each other.

Carol brings home the point that commitments made long ago effect the nation as a whole today. As a member of the Armed Services committee in the Congress she knows that America faces plenty of threats all over the globe today. She tells us that the new generation coming up judges the quality of care against the desire to serve. And I really agree with that statement.

We don’t rely on a draft to staff our armed forces today. We rely on a professional, volunteer army to meet our needs. After 8 years of George Bush, the recent Walter Reed scandal, a generation of cutbacks in services across the boards and the heightened state of readiness required to meet our current needs in America today, no issue is more symbolic of our government’s intention to honor those commitments made to every one that served than veteran’s health care and the sorry state of the VA in NH today.

We need them … We need people to sign-up for the Armed services. We need them to look at how we treat our veterans and say, “Yes. I trust America that should I be wounded or should I be killed they’ll take care of my family and they will take care of me. They won’t break that sacred promise.”

And so the young are looking to see what we do right now and if we truly honor our commitments.

pictured are Carol and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) in Kuwait

The answer here from me is: Yes we do. We must … Keep up the good work and we will make sure that veterans today and tomorrow have what we promised them yesterday. Thank you very much.

Carol then saved the best for last after wishing Mike Lopez a Happy Birthday and thanking Jim Craig (“one class act”) for emceeing the event. When talking about the importance of sending Bob Bruce to the governor’s counsel she says:

We have someone who is running for executive counsel, Bob Bruce, who also comes from the people. And so I appreciate you looking at his record and his concern for all of us. His slogan goes along the line of “send your neighbor.” And that’s the best thing you could do. Send one of us. Fill all of these positions with somebody that knows your story because we are one of you.

You know my slogan: Running for the rest of us. Thank you for the honor of serving you in Washington. And I would ask that you send Democrats up and down the ticket because it’s not the fact that we’re Democrats. It’s that we’re holding the American agenda right now. We’re the party that has come together to say that we have to save the middle-class and fix the country … Democrats and other people will be very well served by Democrats in Washington and in NH.

The lighting sucked at the VFW so my apologies for the poor quality of the video and pics in this diary, but the audio is clear as a bell and the remarks were pretty sweet. I hope you enjoyed the show.

So where is the urgency to support a great candidate like Carol Shea-Porter in her re-election bid this year? Well may you ask.

While the Obama race is vital to the future of the country so too are the down ballot races that will determine the climate and ultimately the success President Obama can expect once he gets sworn into office. NH-01 has been targeted as a Republican pick-up by Freedom Watch who I predict will be the new swift-boaters in this cycle. They’ve already been running ads smearing Carol’s position on offshore oil drilling and Brian Larsen from PoliticsNH.com told me on Sunday that they’ve just announced their third ad buy in the state targeting both Carol and Paul Hodes. By no means is Carol’s re-election to the Congress going to be a slam dunk and in preparation for my “re-emersion” into NH politics I came across a very disturbing website that I think holds the playbook for the ugliness that we may see unfold in NH’s first district in the coming weeks.

Democrats are far outstripping Republican fundraising efforts from the top to bottom all over the country with some exceptions and nowhere is a disturbing trend more apparent than in down ballot races like Carol’s.

“There’s a good chance 527 groups will dominate Republican rescue efforts in congressional races this year,” said David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.”

“It’s clear the NRCC is outsourcing their attacks to right-wing smear organizations. We have been anticipating this activity for months and have been preparing our candidates with the tools they need to respond effectively,” said DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell.

source

With the Democrats holding a money advantage, the GOP’s best hope may be that independent outside groups like Freedom’s Watch throw a lot of money into congressional races. As of now, however, the Democrats look to pick up significant numbers of additional seats.

source

And just in time I found a website called The Real CSP, link withheld for obvious reasons. I don’t know who or what really is behind this scum that passes for political education but let’s just look at one egregious example. Under the heading “Deserting out Troops” the website claims: “Shea-Porter put partisan politics above the needs of troops and commanders on the ground by voting for a Democrat-sponsored bill mandating extension of troop deployments overseas. (House Roll Call 795)“

But if you look at govtracks.us for HR 3159 you’ll see a summary from Project Vote Smart and that CSP was a co-sponsor of the bill that provides the following:

• Mandates that before a member of the regular armed forces be redeployed to Iraq, he or she must be given a period of rest at least as long as the duration of his or her most recent deployment [Sec. 2 (a)].
• Mandates that before a member of the armed forces reserve be redeployed to Iraq, he or she must be given a period of rest at least three times as long as the duration of his or her most recent deployment [Sec. 2 (b)].
• Exempts special operations forces and forces used to facilitate deployments [Sec. 2 (c)].
• Allows the President to waive the rest period requirements in order to meet a threat to national security if the President certifies the necessity of the deployment to Congress within 30 days [Sec. 2 (d)].
• Allows the rest requirement to be waived for members of the Armed Forces who voluntarily request mobilization [Sec. 2 (e)].

So she votes for passage of the HR 3159 on the next vote Roll Call 796, unlike 190 Republicans in the Congress, and the website/smear campaign would lead you to believe that she does not support the bill, which she voted for and co-sponsored. Ya know, that kind of “deserting the troops” Unreal. All rightey, looks like we’ve got our work cut out for us.

DownwithTyrrany also reports that Wal-Mart is targeting Carol in her race.

But you’re not going to find Carol Shea-Porter on the lists of congressmembers who take special interests money and then vote for them instead of for her constituents. Her predecessor, Jeb Bradley, always did– and now those same big special interests are back shoveling money into his campaign, trying to help him reclaim his old– their old– seat. Carol’s voting record is clear as a bell; she votes in the interests of her constituents. Period. She doesn’t have millions of dollars in corporate money hanging over her head as an incentive– or a threat– to vote for special deals for corporations.

This election in NH’s first is not going to be any kind of pretty. Without credible media voices debunking these kinds of scurrilous charges, attack ads and misleading ad campaigns to put in kindly can sway voters. Mud sticks, especially if you throw enough of it.

We hold the American agenda in this election and Carol holds it everyday for the people of NH’s first. Get out there to support a great public servant and in so doing we’ll be supporting each other.

To donate to Carol’s re-election campaign click here, but don’t bother if you’re a DC lobbyist – she doesn’t take your money.

Also consider volunteering or to sign-up for the excellent news letter try the main website. The intro video is set for auto-play.

It’s going to get tres not jolie out there before this one is over, kids. So get out there. She needs you now. We need each other now – more than ever.

This diary is another in the continuing guerrilla vlogger series. I’m not associated with the campaign in any way shape or form and most importantly I speak only for myself when blogging. I do all these vlogs as a citizen journalist, as in I’m not paid. I do everything with an ordinary mini-DV, a PC, Movie Maker and free tools available on the web. Thanks for reading.

Over at the Lincoln Journal-Star, Don Walton buries this nugget in his latest column:

New 2nd District Democratic poll shows Barack Obama and John McCain virtually even in measurements of approval and disapproval.

The figures for Bush tip substantially toward disapproval.

That seems to point toward an effort to tie McCain securely to Bush as Obama seeks a presidential electoral vote in the metropolitan Omaha congressional district.

Jim Esch trailed Lee Terry by a single digit in the poll. (Emphasis added)

Unfortunately, the who, what, and when of this poll is still unknown, so take it with a grain of salt until we can find out more about this phantom poll.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

South Carolina GOP Rep. Joe Wilson must love his Democratic opponent, Iraq vet Rob Miller.

Wilson apparently loves Miller so much, that he posted one of Miller’s press releases attacking him for steadfastly supporting George Bush’s “failed” education policies.

The release is still available on Wilson’s campaign web site (posted under Wilson’s own name), and ends with a ringing endorsement of his Democratic challenger:

Today, Wilson’s Democratic challenger Rob Miller made the following statement about the first day of Wilson’s tour for the status quo and “No Child Left Behind”:

“We need change in Washington, not more of the same. Congressman Wilson’s bus tour is all about championing the way Washington does business. Congressman Wilson’s support for ‘No Child Left Behind’ is just wrong. It’s an unfunded federal mandate that forces teachers to teach for the test instead of truly educating our children. It’s about time Washington stop telling local communities how to educate our children.

I’m sure that Mr. Miller very much appreciates Joe Wilson’s kindly assist in disseminating this press release as widely as possible.

(Hat-tip to reader LH for the scoop.)

Rasmussen (8/14, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/17 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (40)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (51)

(MoE: ±4%)

Wow. It looks like the DSCC’s recent internal poll of this race showing Martin trailing by 36-42 may not have been an outlier, after all.

Excellent numbers. Could Georgia be one of the sleeper Senate races of 2008?

In light of Jim Martin’s primary win and these most recent numbers, SSP is upgrading its rating of this race from “Safe Repubican” to “Likely Republican“.

Campaign Receiving Important Endorsements:

As we move into the fall campaign season, the McCracken for Congress campaign is receiving several important endorsements.   Earlier this month we were honored to receive the endorsement from the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO.   This is a key endorsement from an organization that is a leader in supporting the rights of the working people, not only in the 5th district, but in Pennsylvania and across the nation.

This week, we were notified by the NEA Fund for Children and Public Education, the political action committee of the National Education Association, of their decision to recommend the election of Mark B. McCracken to the U.S. House of Representatives, Congressional District 05 in Pennsylvania.   This endorsement carries a special meaning to me in light of my prior experience as a former member of a public school board.   I truly believe if our local public school systems receive the proper support from our federal government, we can have the finest education system in the world.   When I speak of support, I’m not only talking adequate financial support, I also believe that elected leaders at the federal, state and local level should be strong vocal advocates for our public schools.  

Throughout this campaign, I’ve stressed the need for a federal education policy that includes adequate funding while letting standards and policies to officials at the state and local levels.  As a person with 10 years experience serving on a local school board, I realize that parents, administrators, teachers and local leaders know what is best for their children.  Unnecessary mandates from the federal government in Washington only complicate matters.

Updates Coming to McCracken for Congress Webpage:

Later this week we will be unveiling some changes and updates to the McCracken for Congress webpage — www.mccrackenforcongress.com.  

The big change will be with the issues section.  As we’ve traveled throughout the 5th district meeting with people and discussing the issues and problems, we can now better define what the important issues are on the minds of the citizens in the district.  From my position as the candidate, I’ve spent the last 8 months listening and learning from the people that I hope to represent in the United States Congress.  While there are many of the issues I was already aware of as a county commissioner, there were issues I had to learn more about from the citizens of the 5th district.  

As we move into the next phase of the campaign, I want to give voters a better outline of the issues and problems they have discussed with me and provide them with specific ideas and solutions they can consider before making their decision on November 4th.

Keeping Up a Hectic Pace:

We were very busy again this week traveling throughout the 5th district meeting people and listening to their concerns.  

On Monday we spent the evening working in the Democratic booth at the McKean County Fair.  Tuesday took us to State College for meetings with campaign supporters.  Also on Tuesday, Victor Ordonez represented the campaign at an event near St. Marys with the Elk County Farm Bureau.  

Thursday was an important day in Clearfield County featuring a visit by Gov. Ed Rendell who announced several million dollars in funding for important projects in Clearfield County.   Funding announcements were made for the expansion of Paris Company in DuBois creating 40 new jobs, expansion of the Clearfield YMCA, a river walk project in Clearfield Borough and the state’s investment to rebuild several deficient bridges in Clearfield County.  

On Thursday evening the campaign headed to Janesville in southeastern Clearfield County to appear at the annual Bud George Day picnic.  It was a great honor be on the speaking program with Gov. Rendell, State Rep. Bud George, Auditor General Jack Wagner, candidate for Attorney General John Morganelli, candidate for Treasurer Rob McCord and fellow congressional candidate from the 9th district Tony Barr.  

On Friday, we were in the DuBois area for a fundraiser organized by Henry and Molly Guthrie.  We had a nice turnout for the event with special guests State Rep. Scott Conklin and State Rep. Dan Surra on hand.  

Kelly and I want to thank Henry and Molly for organizing the event and also thank the people who did the work getting the site ready and cooking the food.   We closed out the week on Saturday with a trip to Emporium for a car show and downtown event sponsored by the Emporium Chamber of Commerce.  Later, it was on to Smethport for another appearance at the McKean County Fair.

Plans for the Coming Week:

We’ll be spending quite a bit of time in Centre County this week.  

Tuesday we will be joining members of the Centre County Democratic Committee to attend Gov. Rendell’s appearance at the CBICC luncheon.  Wednesday we will be traveling to Venango county for several meetings in the morning and then back to Centre County later in the day to attend the Penn Ag Democratic Picnic held in conjunction with Ag Progress Days.  Friday we will be in attendance for the opening of the Democratic Campaign Headquarters in Clinton County.   Finally, on Saturday, we will start out a busy day at the Centre County Democratic breakfast followed by “Mark McCracken Day” in the Democratic booth at the Grange Fair in Centre Hall.  

I look forward to meeting with everyone at the Grange Fair on Saturday.

FINAL THOUGHT — Momentum is Building:

Right after winning the primary election in April, I made a statement when asked by a reporter “Mr. McCracken, can you actually win this race?”  My response was “We can and we will” which I posted on our campaign blog site.  I was encouraged on Monday evening when speaking with a gentleman at the McKean County Fair who made reference to my response.  He was asking me how the campaign was going and I gave him a very positive report about the progress we are making.   What was so encouraging was when he told me — “Mark, remember what you said on your blog — We can and we will…? Just keep up the hard work and you can and you will win the seat.”

We’ll see you on the campaign trail and with your help, we can and we will win this race!

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress