Swing State Project

In the last few hours since we last checked in on the race in TN-09 (where the primary is tomorrow):

* Nikki Tinker was declared Worst Person in the World by Keith Olbermann. (If anyone can recall any other Democrat receiving this, um, honor, please let us know in the comments!)

* Nikki Tinker, or at least her ad, was condemned by EMILY’s List, who had previously endorsed her.

EMILY’s List president Ellen Malcolm issued a statement Wednesday evening condemning Tinker’s most recent ad.  The group, which endorses Democratic women who favor abortion rights, has been Tinker’s most prominent backer.

“We were shocked to see the recent ads run by the Nikki Tinker for Congress campaign. We believe the ads are offensive and divisive,”

(The ad has been scrubbed from YouTube by the Tinker campaign; unfortunately, the embed below no longer works.)

* Steve Cohen forcibly removed a cameraman from his house who had barged in uninvited to Cohen’s hastily-called news conference at Cohen’s house to address the religion-baiting ad… and the cameraman is allegedly pressing ‘assault’ charges. (Video from the local Memphis Fox affiliate is available here: http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/my… The cameraman is an Armenian-American activist and documentary filmmaker who has been stalking Cohen all week; he’s not officially affiliated with the Tinker camp, but Armenian groups have given more than $30K to the Tinker campaign because of Cohen’s opposition to the bill to call the World War I-era slaughter of Armenians genocide (and thus infuriate Turkey).

Small legalistic note: there’s a big difference between some sorehead pressing charges, and the county DA actually following through on them (which I guess we’ll find out about that tomorrow). The video shows Cohen escorting the guy out the door with hand firmly on his arm and giving him a shove out the door for good measure; since the cameraman was essentially trespassing, this isn’t likely to amount to anything.

Also (h/t to BruinKid): the documentarian, Peter Musurlian, was previously a GOP operative, working as the district director for Carlos Moorhead, who until 1996 represented the Pasadena-area district now represented by Adam Schiff.

* UPDATE (Thursday morning): Barack Obama issued a statement condemning the ad (although not Tinker by name).

“These incendiary and personal attacks have no place in our politics, and will do nothing to help the good people of Tennessee,” Obama said in a statement. “It’s time to turn the page on a politics driven by negativity and division so that we can come together to lift up our communities and our country.”

After Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens was indicted on seven felony counts, we moved our rating from “Lean Republican” to “Tossup”, and stated that we’d have to wait for more information before we could push this race further along the chart.

Not all of the dust has settled yet, but we feel comfortable enough in moving our rating of this race from “Tossup” to “Lean Democratic“. Even in a vacuum, Anchorage Mayor and Democrat Mark Begich would be a very strong candidate for statewide office in Alaska, but Begich is not running in any ordinary environment; he’s up against an indicted Senator whose numbers are circling the drain in the two most recent polls.

Since Stevens’ primary challengers — all five of them — are a feeble (if wealthy) bunch, we have to consider a primary loss or a resignation timed to allow the Alaska GOP to name a replacement to be unlikely scenarios. Stevens is a stubborn man, and he appears determined to hold out until November — a scenario that would be a big plus for Begich.

There’s still plenty of time for the situation to change (and change again), but for now, SSP is rating this race as Lean Democratic.

What are these races like?  I’ll try to analyze them here, but I don’t know all of the factors.  Can y’all help me by telling me what’s missing?

(pluses and minuses are for the appropriate party in question (i.e. a minus for the Republicans is a good thing for us)

Idaho

D nom: Larry LaRocco

background: former ID-01 reprentative (+), unsuccessful nominee for Senator against Larry Craig, unsuccessful nominee for Lt. Gov. against Jim Risch (-)

campaign: Working for the Senate (++)

state PVI: R+19

R nom: Jim Risch

background: Lt. Gov. (+), former Gov. (+), former Lt. Gov. (+)

campaign: dodging debates (-)

D party: very underdog (-), but very energized (+), Obama rally in Boise (+), significant ID-01 House race (+?)

R party: national mood against R (-), Larry Craig (-), Rex Rammell and Kent Marmon and Pro-Life (-,–?)

Oklahoma

D nom: Andrew Rice

background: State Sen. (+), divinity school (+), Oklahoma City background (?), 9/11 personal connection (?)

campaign: (no special information?)

R nom: Jim Inhofe

background: current Senator (+), global warming is a hoax (-), anything else, such as

campaign: history as a highly competent/hard-hitting campaigner (+)?

state PVI: R+12

D party: Obama effect (+)?, but Clinton won this state and Obama isn’t having a great chance at winning it (-), no significant House races (-?), locally dominant party (+)

R party: nationally dominant party (+), what else?

Kansas

D nom: Jim Slattery

background: former KS-02(?) Representative (+), lobbyist (-)

campaign: (no special information?)

R nom: Pat Roberts

background: current Senator (+), no negatives?

campaign: (no special information?)

state PVI: R+11

D party: KS-02 House race (+?), Sebelius’s political establishments? (+)

R party: nationally dominant party (+), internal conflict between conservatives and moderates…which wing is Roberts part of? (-)

Georgia

D nom: Jim Martin

background: (I don’t know him)

campaign: competitive primary raised name ID (+), anything else

R nom: Saxby Chambliss

background: (I don’t know him other than that he defeated Max Cleland)

campaign: famously nasty campaign(er) (+/-?)

state PVI: R+6

D party: competitive possibly divisive primary (-?) but party has kinda coalesced after that (+), anger toward Chambliss for defeating Cleland (+)

R party: nationally dominant party (+)

Where does Chambliss’s campaign against Cleland count?  Was it something that only angered Democrats, or did it anger most people?

Conclusions: I think we’re more likely to win GA and ID than OK and KS right now.  KS is probably the least likely, OK above that, and GA above that, and ID on top.  What do you think?

Our friends over at Public Policy Polling are once again opening the floor for you to suggest Democratic candidates to include in their 2010 Senate match-up polls of Missouri (Kit Bond) and Ohio (George Voinovich). PPP has previously tested Robin Carnahan and Susan Montee against Bond in Missouri, so it’ll be interesting to see who they’ll choose next. Former Gov. Roger Wilson or Rep. Russ Carnahan, maybe?

In the 2010 race against Ohio Sen. George Voinovich, PPP has previously tested Betty Sutton, Tim Ryan, Mike Coleman, and Jennifer Brunner — all of whom posted competitive numbers. Who should be next?

If you feel so inclined, please swing by Public Policy Polling and drop them a note with your suggestions.

This cannot be good news for Ann Northrup.

Republican Anne Northup, trying to regain her 3rd District congressional seat, has parted ways with her campaign manager, Scott Will, after disagreements that made it difficult for them to work together.

Anne and I have different personalities that really didn’t mesh real well,” Will said. “Anne is a great candidate, and I had a great experience here but it was just time to move on.”

Ted Jackson, Northup’s campaign chairman, said the issues appeared to “manifest themselves over a long period of time” and the two finally agreed yesterday that it wasn’t going to work.

Translation: She is losing. Look, you rarely fire your campaign manager when things are going well, even if you have “stylistic differences” (reminds me of the term “creative differences”). This is a bad time for her to be in disary. Perhaps she should realize it is also a bad time to be a Republican.

The National Education Association’s PAC has just filed a $400,000 media buy against Republican Bob Schaffer in Colorado’s Senate race. That’s a pretty hefty buy, and together with the League of Conservation Voters, we’re seeing a lot of third-party money spent on Udall’s behalf so far this year. Anything that helps free up the DSCC’s hands to take care of other races is a good thing.

I haven’t seen a copy of the ad yet, but we’ll keep you posted.

Yesterday I discussed the ad from Nikki Tinker, the challenger in the TN-09 primary on Thursday, which made a visual linkage between Steve Cohen and a KKK rally. I assumed this was the Tinker campaign’s closing argument, ending the campaign on the most distasteful note possible.

Well, I was wrong. They’ve released another ad. In a race that’s been about gender and race, they’re back where they started: religion.

CHILD’S VOICE: “Now I lay me down to sleep…” ANNCR: “Who is the real Steve Cohen anyway?” CHILD’S VOICE: “I pray the Lord my soul to keep…” ANNCR: “While he’s in our churches, clapping his hands and tapping his feet…” CHILD’S VOICE: “If I should die before I wake…” ANNCR: “He is the only senator who thought our kids shouldn’t be allowed to pray in school.” CHILD’S VOICE: I pray the Lord my soul to take. ANNCR: “Congressman, sometimes apologies just aren’t enough.” TINKER: “I’m Nikki Tinker, and I approve this message.”

Note the narrator’s remarkably ham-fisted emphasis on “our” churches. (Cohen is Jewish.) Nice anti-Semitic dog-whistle… although it seems the Tinker campaign accidentally grabbed the bullhorn instead of the dog-whistle on the way out the door.

For all the talk of “Red State Missouri”, Democrats did not do too shabbily when it came time to turn out and vote in the key state and congressional primaries last night.

First, if you look at the vote for governor Republican voting in a hotly contested party primary, only outperformed Jay Nixon and a minor opponent by 38,081 votes. In the Republican leaning MO-09 where both parties had contested primaries, Republicans outperformed Democrats by 3,312 votes.

The most important result, in my opinion, came out of the MO-06 where, with only 84% of the Democratic vote reporting, was running ahead of Sam Graves by 578 votes. Does primary turnout necessarily predict general election results? Not always. But it is a good measure of enthusiasm of party voters and, and when you take into account a number of factors, it looks like it is on our side.

That’s what everybody’s sayin’.

Public Policy Polling takes another look at the 2010 Senate race (7/30-8/2, likely voters):

Bob Graham (D): 51

Mel Martinez (R-inc): 31

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D): 38

Mel Martinez (R-inc): 37

(MoE: ±3.5%)

These are match-ups that you helped pick, although I’m not sure if there’s anyone who really thinks that Bob Graham would bust out of his retirement in order to run again for the Senate. Still, it would be a romp if he was willing.

A late June poll from PPP showed Martinez tied with Dem Rep. Robert Wexler and trailing Florida CFO Alex Sink by six points. It looks like this one will be a top tier race in 2010.

21st Century Democrats is excited about the extraordinary amount of enthusiasm Barack Obama’s nomination has generated. The Pew Research Center is suggesting increased voter turnout in the general election bodes well for Democrats. However, some stats from the primary season show that increased turnout for the presidential election doesn’t always help down-ballot races.

In fact, assuming a strong Presidential ticket will pull Democratic candidates in the House, the Senate, and local offices to victory is dangerous. This assumption is not in line with electoral empirics or America’s personality. Splitting tickets will always occur in our nation which prides itself on having a “maverick spirit” and values competence over loyalty. More importantly, many Americans will rightfully not vote for candidates they are unfamiliar with. Why would anyone put someone they know nothing about in a tremendous position of power? In the midst of all the excitement generated by the Obama campaign, we cannot forget that voters need to have face to face contact with canvassers for all our candidates, not just our candidate for President.

Looking at this year’s primaries, there is a substantial discrepancy between the number of people who voted for Democratic Presidential Candidates and the number of people who voted for other Democrats. Across the board, significantly less people voted for other Democratic candidates than voted for Democratic Presidential Candidates.

In Pennsylvania there was a stark disparity between votes accumulated by Democratic Presidential Candidates and Democrats running for other state-wide offices. There were only two contested statewide primaries in Pennsylvania this cycle. Below are two charts comparing the number of votes for Democratic Presidential candidates in April’s Primary with votes for Democrats running for State Treasurer in PA.

Candidate	Votes	Percent
CLINTON, HILLARY	1,275,039	54.6%
OBAMA, BARACK	1,061,441	45.4%

Total votes for Obama and Clinton in Pennsylvania = 2,336,480

*Obama and Clinton were the only Democrats on the ballot in PA

Candidate	Votes	Percent
MCCORD, ROBERT	783,675	43.2%
CORDISCO, JOHN F.	472,027	26.0%
MANN, JENNIFER L.	441,745	24.3%
MORRISON-WESLEY, DENNIS	118,696	6.5%

Total Votes for Democrats running for PA State Treasurer 1,661,549

There was a 674,931 vote or 29% disparity between Democrats who voted for our party’s candidates for State Treasurer and our parties candidates for President in Pennsylvania. That means nearly 3 out of every 10 people who voted in the presidential primary, gave the State Treasurer a pass.

In Ohio, two 21st Century Democrats’ endorsed candidates also were victims of down-ballot drop off. In the 1st Congressional District, there were a total of  115, 387 votes for Obama , Edwards and Clinton. Steve Dreihaus ran an uncontested and only got 60,454 votes, a 57,840 vote difference.  Nearly 1 out of every two voters who cast a vote for the Democratic nominee decided to not cast a vote for their Congressman.

In the 15th CD, Mary Jo Kilroy was also uncontested and received 85,840 votes. All the Presidential Candidates received 91,233 votes in total. That’s a 5, 393 vote drop off. Given Mary Jo’s 2006 election results, she can’t afford to have that sort of drop off.

Out in Oregon,  remember those Obama crowds? All that excitement generated 641, 499 total votes in the Democratic Presidential Primary. One would think that the heated primary for the Democratic Senatorial nominee would have little drop off. In spite of intense competition between two well funded campaigns less people voted for our Senatorial candidates than voted for our Presidential Candidates. In fact there was an almost 14% or 91,523 vote difference between total votes for Democratic Presidential Nominees and total votes for Democratic Senatorial Candidates in Oregon. How will Merkley beat Smith if he has to get 115% of Obama’s take in Oregon?

Why am I telling you this? Because at 21st Century Democrats, we believe that in order to have a true progressive revolution in America we’ll need a bottom up, not a top down, approach to elections and campaigns. We have been training and placing field organizers for two decades now. We know that many down-ballot races cannot depend on Obama’s team. They have a big enough task ahead.

21st Century Democrats is endorsing over fifty down-ballot candidates all over the country. For example Jim Roth is running for Corporate Commissioner in Oklahoma, and Andy Meisner is running for Oakland County Treasurer in Michigan. These candidates need resources to get field organizers hitting the doors, and cannot rely on Barack Obama’s field team to do it for them. The nation will not be changed without your help. We already have organizers in critical races across the country, but we need you to partner with us to get down-ballot candidates like Darcy Burner (WA-08), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Jim Himes (CT-4), Judy Baker (MO -9) and other progressives near you elected.

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Big thanks to Corey Goldiner, 21st Century Fellow, for doing most of the legwork and tracking down all these statistics.