It’s 49-37 Smith in SUSA’s first poll of the Oregon Senate race.
Gordon Smith leads among women 48-39, peels off 28% of Democrats, and wins 18-34 year-olds, 53-29%. Sample is 100% white, and breaks down 41D-37R-21R. Smith even leads in the Portland region.
This was taken just before Smith’s latest attack ads, and there are serious questions about Merkely’s financial ability to fight back. So is this another screwy SUSA poll, or can this one be written off?
Polls are now closed in Kansas and Michigan. We’re following the results in the KS-02 Republican primary and the MI-13 Democratic contest.
2:18 AM (Crisitunity): Finally those last few clots of votes came in, in both races! In KS-02, 100% are reporting. Jenkins has 51% (32,240) and Ryun has 49% (31,233).
In MI-13, 99% are reporting. Cheeks Kilpatrick has 39% (20,603), Waters has 36% (19,009). Looks like the incumbent survived.
1:06AM (James): A few more precincts are reporting in Kansas: with 96% in, Jenkins’ lead has grown to 865 votes.
12:45AM: The needles seem stuck in both Kansas and Michigan, and I think I’ll call it a night soon. I’m betting on wins for Jenkins and Kilpatrick.
12:21AM: Kilpatrick is now up by 900 votes. I’d be surprised if she lost.
12:12AM: Cheeks has now take a 111 vote lead. Note that only 71% of precincts are reporting – that’s 1% more votes counted in the last half hour. This could take forever. Then again, Cheeks has done nothing but gain for a long while now. I’d be surprised if that trend reversed itself.
12:02AM: Jenkins’s lead has slipped to just 750 votes (51-49). Still, by my estimates, there may be only around 5,300 or so votes remaining to be counted, and Ryun would need to win those 57-43 to take the lead.
11:46PM: In another nice bit of news out of Kansas, former state AG, current Johnson County DA and all-around fuckwad Phil Kline was defeated in the GOP primary tonight. (Johnson Co. is an affluent KC suburb.)
11:42PM: MI-13 is now as tight as can be. It’s 38-38, with Waters just 60 votes ahead, and a full 30% remaining to be counted.
11:40PM: Could she do it? Jenkins just pushed back out to a 52-48 lead. My back of the envelope says that Ryun needs 57% of the outstanding vote in order to win. In other words, he needs to run a whopping 19 points better than he has all night to eke out the narrowest of wins. It’s certainly possible (who knows just which precincts remain?), but looking harder by the minute.
11:29PM: Waters now has just a 300-vote lead over Kilpatrick. Yipes.
11:26PM: Man, you can practically smell the flop-sweat pouring out of both Jenkins’s and Ryun’s campaign HQs tonight. It’s now back to 51-49 Jenkins with 56% of the vote in. If we’re lucky, we’ll go to a recount.
11:15PM: Meanwhile, over in MI-07, top-tier recruit Mark Schauer is winning his primary over repeat candidate Sharon Renier by just 65-35. Renier has raised only $10K all told this cycle. Not an inspiring showing.
11:10PM: Crikey – it’s 38-37 in MI-13 now, 65% of the vote counted. In all likelihood, the suburbs reported first and now we’re getting a slow trickle from the city of Detroit itself. That’s Cheeks Kilpatrick’s base, which would explain why the gap is closing if true.
10:59PM: Things are getting tighter in MI-13. With 62% of the vote in, Waters leads Kilpatrick by just 39-36, with Scott far behind at 25. You’d have to believe that this would have been a rout with only one challenger.
10:50PM: Now 43% is in and the race in KS-02 remains remarkably stable – Jenkins still on top with 52-48.
10:35PM: A full third of the vote has been tallied in KS-02, and Lynn Jenkins has widened her lead just a touch, to 52-48. If somehow she holds on through the night, this could be a fairly big upset.
10:27PM (James): With 49% in, it’s now 40-34-26 (Waters-Cheeks Kilpatrick-Scott). In KS-02, with 33% of the vote in, it’s 52-48 Jenkins — a stunning turnaround given her consistently weak performance in all of the polling we’ve seen of this race.
10:12PM: With 21% of the vote in, it’s still 51-49 Jenkins.
9:55PM (James): With 27% counted, it’s now 42-30-28 in MI-13. Over in KS-02, Jenkins is maintaining her 51-49 lead with 10% in.
9:40PM: It’s now 43-34-23 in MI-13 (Waters-Scott-Cheeks Kilpatrick), with 9% of the vote recorded.
9:39PM: With 7% in, Jenkins is holding her 51-49 lead over Ryun.
9:21PM (James): With only 1% of precincts reporting, Lynn Jenkins has a 51-49 edge over Jim Ryun in the KS-02 primary. I’d be stunned if she held onto that lead, though. Kilpatrick continues to lag in third place in MI-13 with 6% in.
9:17PM (James): With just 3% of precincts reporting, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is lagging in third place behind Mary Waters and Martha Scott (respectively) at 46-38-18.
Polls are now closed in Missouri, where results are starting to trickle in for the Republican gubernatorial primary and the Democratic and Republican primaries for the open seat of GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof (MO-09). We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns.
RESULTS: MO-Gov (AP) | MO-09 (AP)
11:41PM: The AP has called the GOP nod for MO-Gov for Hulshof, and MO-09 for Luetkemeyer.
11:35PM: With 90% in, Baker has surged to a 42-33 lead over Gaw. This one is done.
11:22PM: 81% in, and Baker still leads by 41-37. Hulshof is still five points ahead of Steelman with 87% in.
11:14PM: 78% in, and Baker leads by 41-37 with significant votes in Boone still outstanding. Hulshof is still holding tight.
11:05PM: With 67% in, Baker is still up by 41-38 and exactly 1000 votes. 64 precincts are still out in Boone. Hulshof is holding steady at 49-45 with 84% of the vote in.
10:56PM: Anyone who wants the county-by-county breakdowns for the MO-09 race can find them here. With 64% in, it’s 41-38 Baker. Two thirds of Boone County’s precincts are not counted yet. With 78% reporting in the gubernatorial race, Hulshof leads Steelman by 49-45.
10:42PM: With 62% of the vote in, Baker leads Gaw by 40-38. Hulshof leads Steelman by 49-44 still with 58% in.
10:23PM: With 51% of the vote in, Baker has pulled ahead of Gaw by 40-37. With no precincts in Boone County (Columbia) reporting yet, Baker is poised for a surge. Luetkey has surged to a 43-25 lead over Onder. In MO-Gov, Hulshof has a 49-44 lead with 45% reporting.
10:00PM: Gaw leads Baker by 39-36 with 23% in. Over in Wingnutville, Luetkemeyer leads Onder by 38-37. In the gubernatorial race, Hulshof has pulled ahead to a 50-43 lead with 20% reporting.
9:44PM: With 18% in, Gaw leads Baker by 39-35, while Luetkemeyer is ahead of Onder by 40-35. In MO-Gov, Hulshof leads Steelman by 48-46 with 14% in.
9:26PM (David): Finally, some more votes are in. Luetkemeyer is leading Onder 40-32 with 6% in. (Sadly, netroots fave Brock Olivo has just 8%.) On our side, Gaw leads Baker 41-39. And Hulshof leads Steelman 48-44.
8:53PM (David): In very early returns (fewer than 1% of precincts reporting), Hulshof has a 48-40 lead over Steelman. Luetkemeyer and Baker are also both up big, but again, very few votes have been tallied.
Polls have closed in Georgia as of about 20 minutes ago. We’ll be using this thread to follow the results as they come in.
RESULTS: Associated Press (7/15 county baselines) | GA SoS
10:03PM: Here’s DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer’s statement on Jim Martin’s victory:
“Georgians chose an impressive candidate today who has the experience and vision to change the direction of our nation. As a public servant under both a Democratic and a Republican Governor, Jim has a proven record of working across party lines, and he will be an effective and independent voice for Georgia families. This is a winnable race.”
9:10PM: With 78% of precincts reporting, Martin leads by 59-41. Like many of you in the comments section, the Swing State Project is calling this race for Jim Martin! Hooray!
8:54PM: With 66% of precincts in (according to the SoS), Martin is leading by 61-39. Looks like he’s on pace to deliver a major league spanking to the Bush-voting train wreck that is Vernon Jones.
8:45PM (David): According to the SoS, Jones is getting crushed in his home county, DeKalb, by better than a 2-to-1 margin.
8:34PM: Martin is also crushing in Fulton County (Atlanta proper), by roughly 5200 to 1600 votes with under 27% of the county’s precincts reporting. Jones won the county by 38-37 in July.
8:21PM: Martin crushes Jones by almost 70-30 in Gwinnett, a big improvement for Martin, who lost the county by 36-30 to Jones in July. (H/T: TheUnknown285)
8:09PM: Reading from the AP’s tally, Martin is up by 62-38 with 663 of 3148 precincts reporting.
8:02PM: As you may have noticed, there’s some disparity between the SoS’ numbers and the AP’s, with the AP consistently showing Jones missing around 2000 votes compared to the SoS’ tally. I’m not sure what the issue is, but in this topsy-turvy world, I just don’t know who to trust.
7:59PM: 337 precincts in, and Martin is up by 56-44. He’ll need to bank as many votes as possible before the metro Atlanta area reports in full.
7:45PM: With 76 precincts counted (of 3148, mind you), Martin is up by 59-41, including a very early lead in Gwinnett County, a populous area that went to Jones by a 36-30 plurality in July.
7:31PM ET: Martin has the early 54-46 lead so far, but with only a scant 18 precincts reporting, we aren’t seeing any numbers from the state’s major population centers (DeKalb, Fulton, Cobb, and Gwinnett counties) yet.
Lately I have been pondering intellectually about a common attack line used against Republicans in this election cycle and wondering if it even makes sense anymore. That attack line is the “Bush rubber stamp in Congress” mantra that took down 30 GOP incumbents two years ago.
Coming from a country with a parliamentary system, where legislators are expected, somewhat even encouraged, to vote the party line, I myself am not as flustered when my former Conservative MP votes 99% of the time with Stephen Harper, or my new Liberal MP votes 95% of the time with party leader Stephane Dion.
But something has been troubling me about all these attacks on “Bush Rubber Stamps” running this cycle. Guys like Gordon Smith and Steve Pearce, not to mention countless new GOP candidates (such as Hazelton mayor Lou Barletta) are running to serve out a new term in 2009, when Bush is completely out of the picture. So how could they be accused of being rubber stamps when the guy they are supposedly rubber stamping for will be pretty much gone by the time they take their oath of office?
It seems to make much more sense to accuse Democrats running this cycle of being potential “Obama Rubber Stamps” than anything else. Obama’s long coattails are expected by November to yield a massive gain for Democrats in both the House and Senate. A lot of those newly elected legislators are going to owe a lot to Obama.
What does that mean? President Obama’s going to have a lot of favors he can call in to get what he wants through Congress. How long do you think guys like Travis Childers, Heath Shuler, or Don Cazayoux can resist before voting for Obama’s agenda (some kind of new tax for example), thus giving their opponents ample reason to label them “Obama Rubber Stamps” in the 2010 midterm elections?
I highly doubt the netroots would appreciate having one of their favorite tactics thrown back into their face like that.
(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)
And we’re listening. Last weekend, I asked for you to help us at Clintonistas for Obama create the perfect ActBlue list. And guess what? Thanks to your help, I think we’ve created something quite remarkable!
Please follow me after the flip to see the full results…
These are our new C4O All-Stars! These are the candidates who we think:
1. Best embody Barack Obama’s message of change
2. Best represent Hillary Clinton’s strong progressive values
3. Have a terrific shot of winning this fall
We listened to your suggestions on which races we should pay attention to. We did our own research on which races are truly winnable. And today, we’ve come up with a list of terrific candidates who we think will make great additions to the 111th Congress! While I don’t have enough time to talk about all of these candidates, I’d like to highlight some of our new additions.
Martin Heinrich is an awesomely progressive Albuquerque City Council member who has a great shot at turning this red New Mexico district blue once and for all. Glenn Nye knows what real patriotism looks like, and he’s a true patriot who will make Southeast Virginia proud. Linda Stender nearly upset the entrenched far-right GOP incumbent in this moderate New Jersey district in 2006, and she has what it takes to finish the job in 2008. Ann Kirkpatrick has changed people’s lives for the better in the Arizona Legislature, and she’s looking to make more positive change as Northern Arizona’s representative to Congress. And finally, I must mention proud veteran Gary Peters in Michigan and smart businesswoman Suzanne Kosmas in Florida.
I can guarantee you that if we support these & all our other fantastic C4O All-Star Democrats, we’ll see real change for the better in Congress next year. I’m doing all I can for Debbie Cook here in Southern California because I know she’s a true-blue agent of change. I urge all of you to support your local Democratic candidates as well.
Take a look at our list, and see if we have a candidate listed near you. Donate. Volunteer. Just go out and get active! You told us who to love, so let’s all work together to make sure they win! 🙂
There’s time for one last TV spot before Thursday’s primary in TN-09, so here’s the closing statement released yesterday by Nikki Tinker, who’s challenging incumbent Steve Cohen in the primary in this Memphis-based district.
As you’ll recall, Steve Cohen is a white Jewish man, and a solid progressive, who represents the mostly-African-American 9th, having won the 2006 primary to succeed Harold Ford Jr. via a split black vote. Tinker (who lost to Cohen in 2006) is running to his right, but challenging him on the basis of race, gender, religion, and everything but the issues.
Apparently, Cohen, while a member of Memphis’ Center City Commission, voted against removal of a statue of Confederate General (and KKK founder) Nathan Bedford Forrest from a city park. The ad features a local pastor criticizing Cohen’s decision… while running unrelated stock footage of a KKK rally in the background.
Memphis’ major paper, the Commercial-Appeal, rightly took Tinker to task for her last-minute appeal, which can’t even be described as lowest-common-denominator since it’s mathematically impossible to divide something by zero:
Beyond all that, it’s unfortunate that the Tinker campaign would evoke the KKK image in Memphis. Many residents still have lingering resentment over a 1998 Klan rally Downtown that turned violent when anti-Klan protesters were tear gassed by police and several windows were broken.
Apparently, none of that has stopped Tinker supporters from framing Thursday’s election as a black-white contest or a division between African-Americans and Jews.
The candidate’s desperate efforts to paint Cohen with the broad brush of racist imagery may win a few votes to her cause. Those who know Cohen will see through the smear.
SSP will be busy tonight, with hot primaries in four states:
Crisitunity gave us a thorough look at all of these races on Friday.
In the comments, feel free to post your predictions for these races. Whoever posts the closest numbers gets free bragging rights until the TN-09 primary on Thursday.
Internal polling for Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche shows that he has a big advantage over his three challengers in the Shreveport-based, R+7 open seat. How big an advantage? Well, 13 to 19 points… but the release of the poll doesn’t give specific percentages of votes or tell which margin applies to which GOP challenger. Here’s what we know:
When paired with each of these three opponents on a trial heat, Paul Carmouche defeats all three, with leads ranging from 13 to 19 points. Also, Independent candidate Chester “Catfish” Kelley holds 5% of the vote in all three match-ups.
The poll gives Carmouche very high name recognition (60%) and a 4-to-1 favorable ratio. The same poll also goes into some more detail about the Republican primary, which has three credible candidates (physician John Fleming, trucking company executive Chris Gorman, and former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson).
Kitchens Group for Paul Carmouche (7/16-21, likely voters):
John Fleming (R): 27
Chris Gorman (R): 20
Jeff Thompson (R): 14
(MoE: ±4%)
Result-wise, this matches Fleming’s own polling (although Fleming gives himself a much bigger margin of victory):
Southern Media & Opinion Research for John Fleming (7/25-27, likely voters):
John Fleming (R): 43
Chris Gorman (R): 17
Jeff Thompson (R): 15
(MoE: ±5%)
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
Elway Research (7/27-31, registered voters, 6/8-12 in parens):
Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 52 (47)
Dino Rossi (R): 36 (39)
(MoE: ±5%)
The new Elway poll on the Washington governor’s race gives Gregoire her largest lead of any poll this cycle, although it’s pretty consistent with previous Elway and Rasmussen polling.
Strategic Vision (R) (7/25-27, likely voters, 10/5-7/2007 in parens):
Chris Gregoire (D-inc.): 47 (47)
Dino Rossi (R): 45 (45)
(MoE: ±3%)
SurveyUSA and Strategic Vision have been presenting a much closer picture of the race, although they’ve also been extremely consistent from poll to poll. (In fact, Strategic Vision gets exactly the same result as the last time they polled the race nine months ago.) As I’ve commented before, this is a race where almost every mind has been made up for four years, and we’re mostly just seeing differences in pollsters’ models.
The Elway poll also polled some downballot issues (albeit with huge undecided numbers), including the suddenly-hotly-contested race for Commissioner of Public Lands. Former Agriculture Director (and 2006 candidate in WA-05) Peter Goldmark (D) is leading two-term incumbent Doug Sutherland (R) 31-30. (Sexual harassment allegations against Sutherland recently came to light.)
In the Attorney General’s race, incumbent Rob McKenna (R) leads Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg (D) 41-30. And the highest-profile initiative on the ballot, I-1000 (to allow physician-assisted suicide), is favored 39-26.