Swing State Project

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune (5/12-15, likely voters):

Al Franken (D): 44

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Coleman has a 45-31 approval/disapproval rating, while Franken is viewed unfavorably more than he is favorably (39% to 33%).  Franken’s recent income tax woes, which have dogged his campaign for the past month, make 28% of respondents less likely to vote for him.

The same round of polling shows Obama crushing McCain in the state by a 51-38 margin.  Franken has some work to do if he wants to catch on to that wave.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

(H/T: Political Wire)

(originally posted on the Bruin Democrats blog)

I’m going to be highlighting House and Senate races around the country for the Bruin Democrats on our blog, as most of the presidential stuff is over with, so they can become SSP-like junkies too.  🙂  I’ll probably make about 2-3 posts per week over there, each time focusing on a specific seat and filling them in on the background of the district and the dynamics in play.  Unlike us junkies here, they’re not going to be anywhere as familiar with who the people are, so I’ve got to start from the beginning.  A 1Q report?  What’s that?

These posts are written as a primer so that someone with absolutely no prior knowledge about the seat or who the incumbent or challenger is can come away with a good idea of what’s going on, and maybe even send some dollars over to the Democrat’s campaign, if they feel compelled enough to do so.

So I figured I’d post what I wrote over there on SSP, since this is a site for us Congressional race junkies, after all.  🙂  Y’all probably know all this stuff already, but I hope you guys still find it entertaining and informative.  The original post, below the fold.

So I figured that with most of the action over in California, I’d turn to the House and Senate races around the country to highlight some interesting races.  There will be a quiz in November, so take notes, LOL.  I’ve already highlighted races in IL-14, CA-12, LA-06, NY-13, and MS-01, plus a look at some California House races and some key Senate races, which I will periodically update.  Now, before anonymous Republicans try to spam the comments section, the races that I’ll be highlighting do not necessarily mean I’m guaranteeing a Democratic victory in those places.  Many of these places are going to be Republican strongholds.  This is meant to provide a window into what’s happening all over our country as we head towards November, to get other Bruin Democrats reading this more familiar and aware with what’s happening on the ground in other places.  In 2006, as we celebrated taking back the House with a big scorecard marking down congressional districts one by one as they flipped, most of us didn’t know who the Democrats that won even were, or the Republicans that they defeated.  Hopefully these posts will make it more personal come November.  🙂

That said, let’s look at a House race deep in the heart of Texas, in its 7th district.  Rep. John Culberson (R) is the current representative, having served there since 2001.  He’s been the source of some comedy gold on the blogs this week for getting totally smacked down by Rep. David Obey (D-WI) on the House floor.  If you’re gonna rail against a bill, you might want to read it first to know what you’re talking about.  Oops.  Oh, we had some fun with him!

Now that’s some serious pwnage.

This year, Culberson is facing a serious challenge from an energy executive.  What’s that, you say?  A Democratic energy executive?  Well, yes, an alternative energy executive.  His name is Michael Skelly, and he’s the former chief development officer of Horizon Wind Energy.  Now here’s the amazing thing.

Businessman Michael Skelly is positioned to be at the top of the Democratic fundraising list for the year’s first quarter, according to a Democratic operative, raising about $750,000 from individual donors without even tapping into his substantial personal wealth. Another Democratic operative said it could be the “best first quarter ever” for any House Democrat in his first filing period.

Skelly has already handily outdistanced Culberson in fundraising – rare for a challenger – banking more than $402,000 in mid-February, according to his latest FEC filing.

Skelly’s incredible fundraising is getting both local and national blog attention.  By the end of the 1st quarter (January – March 2008), Skelly had 246% more cash on hand than Culberson.  Here’s the local ABC affiliate’s report on the race.

Rasmussen sure has a lot of good news for us lately (likely voters, 5/15):

Scott Kleeb (D): 40

Mike Johanns (R): 55

(MoE: ±4%)

This race is definitely one of the longer shots of 2008, but Kleeb at 40% is definitely a strong position for a Nebraska Democrat to start off at, especially against a popular former Governor like Johanns, who is viewed favorably by 65% of the state’s voters.  Kleeb’s favorables are at 56%.

In the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama here by a relatively modest 50-39.  (You may recall that Kerry lost Nebraska by a whopping 66-33.)  Incidentally, Clinton would lose the state by a much wider 57-34.  I wish Rasmussen’s crosstabs would break down the results by congressional district, because I suspect the Omaha-based NE-02 might be in play.

“I’m staying,” Boehner told ABC host George Stephanopoulos. “My job is to help bring our members together.”

Boehner said he talked late last week with Cole (R-Okla.), whose job security as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee is now in question after losing a third straight special election.

“Tom and I had a very good meeting on Friday – frank and constructive and positive,” Boehner said. “He’s staying.”

Rest of the article here: http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Boehner is doing a really bang up job here.  First, he admits what his job is. That opens the doors to criticism that, rightly so, he just is not getting the job done.  He has made public statements saying what Republicans need to do; brand themselves as change, donate to the NRCC, etc. and nothing seems to change.  

Second, he took the time to chainlink himself to Tom Cole, like he needed help putting his leadership position into question.  

This is too precious.  It is like Republicans have turned into a bunch of chickens running around with their heads cut off.  That is only after 33 seats have gone down the tube over the past year and a half.  Just wait till we build on that after 2008.  Too precious.  

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about Barack Obama’s impact on downballot races across the country, particularly after Republican Greg Davis’ thinly veiled race-baiting campaign ended up creating an African-American backlash that handed Mississippi’s 1st district to Travis Childers last Tuesday. Davis figured that polarizing the district along racial lines would be a winning formula, considering that MS-01 is “only” 27% black. He learned a costly lesson.

The New York Times piece I linked above quotes an Atlanta-based political scientist who predicts that, with Obama at the top of the ticket, we’ll see “the largest black turnout in the history of the United States”. I have little reason to doubt it. Indeed, there are clear signs that the Obama campaign is going to do everything it can to ramp up African-American voter registration and turnout this fall, even in deeply red Southern states.

So where might we see the biggest impact of this energized African-American electorate (the most loyal of all Democratic constituencies) down the ballot? Let’s start by taking a look at the GOP-held House districts with a black population greater than 20%. (All numbers are from 2005, courtesy of Tech Politics.)

Incumbent	District	Black Pop.
Chip Pickering	MS-03	33.9%
Jim McCrery	LA-04	33.6%
Rodney Alexander	LA-05	32.9%
Randy Forbes	VA-04	31.9%
Mike Rogers	AL-03	31.4%
Phil Gingrey	GA-11	30.9%
Terry Everett	AL-02	29.8%
Steve Chabot	OH-01	28.4%
Robin Hayes	NC-08	28.1%
Jo Bonner	AL-01	28.0%
Joe Wilson	SC-02	26.7%
Charles Boustany	LA-07	25.2%
Virgil Goode	VA-05	22.5%
Patrick Tiberi	OH-12	21.6%
Thelma Drake	VA-02	21.5%
Jack Kingston	GA-01	21.4%
Henry Brown	SC-01	21.1%
Ted Poe	TX-02	20.5%

Retiring incumbents are in italics.

Now, I’m not suggesting that Obama is going to give magical coattails that will allow all downballot Dems to win in these tough districts, but his candidacy does create a unique dynamic of sky-high African-American turnout that should be a net plus for most Democratic challengers in these seats.

We’ve got strong candidates waging credible campaigns in a number of these districts, particularly in LA-04 (Paul Carmouche), AL-02 (Bobby Bright), and OH-01 (Steve Driehaus). We also have some surprisingly well-funded challengers emerging in the two South Carolina districts — Linda Ketner in SC-01 and Rob Miller in SC-02. These are tough districts for any Democrat to win, but it sure looks like they picked the right year to try.

After Childers’ win, I’m starting to wonder if former Rep. Ronnie Shows is regretting his decision not to run for the open seat that Chip Pickering is leaving behind.

Update: SSP’s DavidNYC has an excellent post on DailyKos analyzing Obama’s chances in Mississippi.

As many of you know I have been supporting Heather Ryan for Kentucky’s First Congressional District. I got to know Heather in 06 when I volunteered for the Eric Streit for Congress campaign, and am proud to call her a friend. Heather is young, smart, and motivated to bring about the change we need in Western Kentucky.  

Some may ask what a young woman such as herself is doing running against the millionaire good old boys club here in Kentucky. Yes, the Mitch McConnell machine just loves chewing aspiring Democrats up and spitting them out. Especially the grassroots kind. They feel their hold on power and policy in Kentucky is sort of a birthright, and they aren’t going to relinquish it without a fight.

Well, they may just get one this time. Heather Ryan is definately nobody’s pushover. If she goes down, she is going to go down fighting the corrupt Republican machine here in Kentucky, not laying down. Just because she is young, that does not mean she is not qualified to run for this seat, and it doesn’t mean she is scared to fight for it.

She proudly served her country in the United States Navy. She graduated from Drake University with a Batchelor’s in Political Science. She is educated and has excellent common sense. She is a wife, mother, and citizen of Western Kentucky and knows well the challenges our citizens face. She also knows someone needs to fight for us.

Listen to this speech of Heather, and you will see just like I do that she is a Democrats that shares our ideals and wants to fight like hell for them. She is just the type of Demcocrat we need fighting in Washington:

Heather hit the nail on the head more than once with that speech. I must say that I am very proud of her, and very proud to be fighting with Ryan for Kentucky for the change all Americans need. We have a great candidate that will fight and can win. If we get the resources we need to get our message out, we WILL win.

We simply must fight for “fighting Democrats” wherever they may appear. We must not only elect Democrats, but we must elect Democrats that share our sense of urgency and wants to fight, not compromise. With that in mind I started Americans for Ryan with the goal of reaching $1500 for Heather by May 20. Thanks to many great Democrats, I have already shattered that goal. I have until Tuesday, so why not help me really shatter it?:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Anyone donating on or before May 20 will be entered into a drawing to win these two pinback buttons from the 1960 campaign of JFK:

Best wishes everyone!!

 

Cross posted from My Silver State.

Remember 2004? When the incumbent Senate Democratic Leader was beaten when he was running for reelection in South Dakota? The first time the Republican  Senate Leader Bill Frist broke one of those so called DC “gentlemen’s agreeements” of not actively campaigning against the leader of the other party?

You want that to happen again in 2010?

No? Then follow me below the fold to see what you can do NOW to stop the Republicans from beating Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010!

Why help Harry Reid now:

The Republican party in Nevada is as much in dire straits as the national party. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t put up a fight to defeat Harry Reid in 2010. Harry Reid once survived a very close race after against now Sen. John Ensign only after a recount (1998). In 2004 he won by a more than comfortable margin. However, that was before he was elected the leader of Senate Democrats. Because of his new leadership role his approval ratings in Nevada have suffered and Nevada Republicans have no greater goal but to topple Harry Reid in 2010.

Now, this is not about whether you like Harry Reid and his actions as the Senate Majority Leader. I’ve personally been very critical of him on several occasions. No, this is about whether you want the Republicans to once again take out the Democratic Leader in the Senate. And Republicans, in Nevada and nationally, will be itching for a fight in 2010 if they lose the White House and more seats in the Senate and the House. And who will be the most prominent target in 2010? Harry Reid.

Potential opponents:

Republicans already suffered pretty badly in 2006 when they lost four out of the six statewide constitutional offices. The only statewide incumbents right now are Gov. Jim Gibbons who is scandal plagued and currently divorcing his wife who has barrickaded herself in the Governor’s mansion. He’s lucky if he won’t either have to resign before 2010 or be primaried.

The other is Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki who seems to be more likely to succeed Gibbons than Reid.

The other top Republicans in the state are Sen. John Ensign who obviously can’t run against Reid and Congressmen Dean Heller (CD2) and Jon Porter (CD3). In 2006 Dean Heller barely managed to get above 50% in this open seat against Democrat Jill Derby. Porter barely won his reelection campaign in 2006 against Democrat Tessa Hafen. Hafen was a Reid staffer who received major financial backing from Reid. A sign that Reid thought Porter to be his strongest and most likely opponent in a future Senate race.

Once you’re done with the most obvious opponents, you have to search in the State Legislature or the local level to find a possible opponent for Reid. You might find one, whether it would be a strong and credible one is highly questionable as the Democrats are only one seat away from a 2/3 majority in the Assembly and just one seat away from getting the majority in the State Senate.

So, the two most likely opponents for Harry Reid are Congressmen Jon Porter and Dean Heller (in that order).

What you can do now:

In one sentence: help defeat Porter and Heller this fall.

Both are vulnerable. Currently, CQ rates CD 2 as Republican Favored and CD 3 as Leans Republican. However, that’s mostly on the basis of the Republicans current financial advantage. After serving as Nevada Democratic State Party Chair for the past year and preparing the state for the caucus in January, Jill Derby announced another run against Heller in late February. By the end of the first quarter filing deadline she had raised $144,000.

In CD 3 a lot of Democrats were mentioned as possible challengers last year. In the end Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas was the candidate backed by most in the Democratic Party. He was added to the DCCC’d red to blue list in March. However, everyone was shocked when Daskas dropped out this month just two weeks before the filing deadline. Local Democrats, the DCCC and Daskas’ primary opponent Andrew Martin soon rallied around Senate Minority Leader and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. However, six months before the election Titus is at a serious fundraising disatvantage.



Why Jill Derby and Dina Titus can win:

So, both of our candidates are way behind in fundraising. Why, then, can they still win?

Jill Derby ran a hotly contested race in 2006 for a seat that Democrats have not seriously contested since Gov. Jim Gibbons first ran in 1996. While everyone pronounced this seat unwinable for any Democrat, Jill Derby ran a strong campaign and won 45% of the vote and kept Heller at 50%. One reason, Gibbons was even a serious contender for Governor and eventually won in 2006 is that Democrats never seriously contested his seat after his first election in 1996.

Two years later, the situation for Jill Derby is much better. She has new DC and national connections due to her time as State party chair during the caucus (which will help with fundraising), the caucus led to an increase in registered Democratic voters and Heller now has to run on his two year Bush rubber stamp record. The race has gained attention from national Democrats as Derby was endorsed by the Blue Dogs in Congress. Yes, I know, none of us are two fond of the Blue Dogs. That said, I’m happy about any help Jill Derby will get and this is after all still a pretty conservative district. When Derby talks about joining the Blue Dogs in Congress, she’s mostly talking about fiscal conservatism. Yet, she’s progressive on other issues, announcing her campaign at a green architecture form, has made health care and supporting SCHIP one of her main campaign themes (Heller voted against SCHIP). Also, her campaign will be managed by the former head of Americans Against the Escalation in Iraq in Nevada. Subsequently, she also endorsed the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq.

As for Dina Titus, she has actually already won in CD 3. In 2006 she won here by two points against Jim Gibbons in her run for Governor. Additionally, the district is trending Democratic as the registration advantage now is at 43% Dem, 37% Rep. Plus, Porter only won by 4,000 votes in 2006.

All Jill Derby and Dina Titus need now is the money to be competitive.

You can do three good deeds today:

You can help two great Democratic women get elected to Congress.

And you can help beat two possible opponents of Harry Reid.

All you need to do is give as much or little as you can and contribute through the My Silver State ActBlue page.

Links:

Jill Derby for Congress

Dina Titus for Congress

Helluva Heller – local blog with more information.

Mcjoan on Jill Derby in 2006.

For months now Democrats have merely been in the speculative phase in terms of having a candidate for governor.  First “Young Dunne,” former state legislator Matte Dunne who nearly took down Brian Dubie two years floated his name, but reneged.  Peter Gailbraith, a former ambassador had been floating his name, but he was a second tier candidate at best, without any legislative or executive experience to speak of.  Meanwhile, “Tony the Prog,” Anthony Pollina, a perennial candidate for the progressive party announced that he was running, and hoped for a two man race. This was a rather sad state of affairs, considering how strongly democratic Vermont is, and the opportunity that a surge of democratic voters in the presidential election could bring us.  Then House Speaker Gaye Symington announced that she was going to run, challenging incumbent governor Jim Douglas.  

With four years experience as speaker of the house, and a progressive record on health care, the economy, and childcare issues, she is clearly a top tier candidate.  Speaker Symington has been a legislator for twelve years, first elected to the house in 1996.  During her freshman term as a legislator, she worked to pass Act-60, the plan that funds Vermont’s education system.  After democrats lost the legislature following backlash from both the aforementioned Act 60, and civil unions, Speaker Symington helped bring the democrats back into the majority in both the house and senate, and they now enjoy a 2/3 majority in both houses.  It is because of this, I am asking the netroots to look into Speaker Symington, and contribute.  Her website http://symingtonforgovernor.com/ is a bit primitive at the moment, but should be enhanced soon (at least it better be).

Despite her qualifications, she still faces steep odds, especially in a three way race.  Under the Vermont Constitution, if none of the candidates receive a majority of the votes, then the legislature chooses the governor.  Jim Douglas was elected in 2002 with 45% of the vote to Doug Racine’s 42%.  The democratic legislature chose Douglas as he was the vote leader, despite having the votes to elect Racine.  This occurred as many legislators were asked by opponents and constituents to pledge to vote for the popular vote winner.  With Anthony Pollina in the race, this will most likely happen again.  Symington however, may be planning to just keep Douglas under 50% in an attempt to get the legislature to elect her, who knows?  

Currently there are not any polls on the race, but the race will most likely become a fight for moderates.  Douglas will keep his base on the right (the 5,000 people who voted for Huckabee in the republican primary) and right of center moderates, Symington will aim for left of center moderates and Pollina will consoldate the far left progressives.  Both Scudder Parker in 2006 and Peter Clavelle in 2004 (a former independent mayor of Burlington) aimed for the far left and left of center moderates and couldn’t get better than 41%.

With an expected surge in democratic votes, Symington may be able to benefit in ways former gubernatorial candidates could not.  2006 nominee Scudder Parker (his real name) only managed 41% despite the overwhelmingly democratic year. Others however, were able to capitalize on the strong democratic leanings of the elections.  Brian Dubie, the republican LT. Governor barely received a majority of votes (51%).  Had he not received a majority, the legislature could have chosen democratic nominee Matt Dunne as LT Governor.  Tom Salmon son of a former governor of the same name, managed a narrow victory over incumbent Randy Brock to become the newest auditor of accounts.  These democrats were able to utilize the strong democrats tide of 2006, and Symington can and will utilize the democratic leanings of 2008, all she needs to get elected is your support?  Will you step up?  

Our good friend Ken Spain, the resident mouthpiece over at the NRCC, makes a funny:

While the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has $44 million ready to use on races across the country, the National Republican Congressional Committee has just $7 million.

Spain said the money didn’t change how voters would respond to the candidates.

“Unless they plan on spending all $44 million on this seat, we believe there is an opportunity here,” he said. “This is a moderate district that wants moderate representation that will embody change, and so far Michael Arcuri has offered none of the above.”

Yes, the DCCC needs to spend all $44 million on shoring up Arcuri while the NRCC continues to hemorrhage crimson red seats in the Deep South.

Sounds like my kinda math!

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

What’s in your wallet?