Swing State Project

Republicans are known for playing possom at the end of a cmapaign. They think it is a good way to gin up their vote, so take with a grain of salt, if you will, a report from Chris Cillizza that Republicans are not feeling good about tomorrow’s special election.

Despite the onslaught of spending, knowledgeable sources on both sides of the aisle insist little has changed in the last 21 days. Childers is believed to have a mid single digit lead over Davis with Republican strategists turning pessimistic about their chances in the last 48 hours or so.

Frankly, I don’t feel very good about a mid-single digit lead from such a red district. Obviously it’s going to all come down to who has the best GOTV machine. The DCCC have been investing heavily on phones and field organizing, so that coupled with other factors just might be the endge we need. Fingers crossed.

Hays Research (5/6-7, Republican voters):

Don Young (R-inc): 45

Sean Parnell (R): 42

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I’m not sold that this is a solid sample of likely GOP primary voters, but the results are still ominous for Young.

Young’s favorables?  A staggering 59% of all respondents (not just Republicans) have an unfavorable opinion of Young, with 30% feeling “very unfavorable” about the crumb-bum congressman.

Meanwhile, Ted Stevens is viewed favorably by 53% of respondents, and unfavorably by 43%.  That’s an improvement over the 49%/46% rating that Stevens held back in March.

Primary: 8/26.

SurveyUSA (5/9-11, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 41 (41)

Greg Fischer (D): 23 (22)

Others: 30 (32)

Undecided: 6 (4)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The last several rounds of polling showed Fischer making up substantial ground, climbing from 6% at the end of March to 22% at the start of May.  However, it seems like he may have hit a plateau with only one week left before primary day.

Primary: 5/20.

Unity is the Key in 2008:  As I’ve been meeting with people since the primary election, I can tell that Democratic voters in the 5th district are unifying behind our campaign and identifying with our message.  Before the primary election, I felt certain if the Democratic candidates made our campaigns about the important issues and trusted the voters to make their choice on election day, it would be easy for Democrats to unite behind the winner for the general election campaign.

During the time I was out campaigning and seeking support, I spoke with many people who were up front and informed me of their support for either Rick Vilello or Bill Cahir.  Early on, I made the decision to spend an equal amount of time with everyone, regardless if they were supporting me, one of my opponents or were still undecided.  I even took the time to speak with voters who identified themselves as Republican, Independent or were registered with other parties.

While there were many important strategic decisions I had to make with the direction of the campaign, I feel this was possibly the key that will keep our momentum going throughout the summer.   We were able to quickly move on from the primary campaign, unify the Democratic base and be ready for the real challenge – electing a Democrat in the 5th Congressional District on November 4th.  I also feel the foundation has been laid to attract those crossover votes we need to win this race.

On the national level, we need to have the same unity behind our nominee for President.  Everyone needs to realize the problems facing our country must be solved and we have to elect a leader at the top who can handle the challenge.  Our democracy is at a critical point and important decisions must be made starting in January of 2009.  

We’ve seen the last 2 presidential elections produce very controversial outcomes that have weakened our faith in the process and caused other countries to doubt our democratic form of government.  In 2000, we watched as ballots in Florida were counted, recounted and eventually uncounted and the only result history will remember is 5-4 from the Supreme Court.  Then, in 2004, our party’s nominee was “Swift Boated” and we watched as the final outcome from Ohio was only slightly less controversial than the Florida 2000 result.  

In 2008, we must not allow the other side to manipulate the process to their advantage.  We have to be unified on all levels so we can elect people who will solve the problems facing our country.  Waiting another 4 years is not an option.

The Week in Review:  This week saw trips on Monday to DuBois for the DuBois City Democratic Committee Meeting and on Tuesday to Coudersport for the Potter County Democratic Committee Meeting.  Additionally, I’ve had several meetings this week with people who will be taking key roles with the campaign as we move forward.  Things are going to start getting busy over the last 2 weeks in May with events in State College and Clearfield this week and Tioga County the following week.  Then, there will be several important events around Memorial Day and we get real busy in June, July and August with county fairs, parades and a regular diet of corn dogs and funnel cakes.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Public Policy Polling (5/8-9, likely voters, 2/18 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 43 (33)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 48 (50)

(MoE: ±4%)

(H/T: vicupstate)

A lot of attention has been spent talking about the Memphis suburbs vs. the rest of the district without really laying things out using Census Bureau definitions and vote counts.  Well here’s how it comes out and the results are revealing.

The Census Bureau definition of the Memphis TN-MS-AR Metropolitan Statistical Area includes one county in Arkansas (Crittendon), four counties in Mississippi (DeSoto, Marshall, Tate, and Tunica) and three counties in Tennessee (Fayette, Shelby, and Tipton).  The vast majority of the area’s population is in Tennessee.  Only three of the Memphis area counties are in this district, Tunica is not.

“Memphis Area” counties voted much differently in the special election than the non-metropolitan counties in the district.  As a group, Davis won Metro counties by a little over 8,100 votes, 12,442 to 4,334.  DeSoto performed differently from the other Metro counties.  Davis won DeSoto by 10,173 to 2,069 bt won the other two counties combined by a whopping four votes, 2,269 to 2,265 (Marshal went Democratic, Tate went Republican).  Non-metro counties went to Travis Childers by 10,235 votes: 28,970 to 18,735.  Childers received 87% of his votes from the non-metro counties and 13% from the Metro Counties.  Davis, otoh, took just 60% of his votes from the non-Metro counties but 40% of his vote from the Memphis suburbs.  The labels of “Memphis” vs. “Country” are surprisingly accurate in this election.  

{Update: We’re up to $335!  You’ve responded amazingly.  Can we get to $500?  Just another $165.  We can do it!  If you can swing it, send Hagan $25 right now via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.}

{Originally posted at Senate Guru.}

You read that right.  The Senate Guru is going on strike for Kay Hagan!  Currently, on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, Hagan is at $50 raised.  Well, the Guru will not write another post until Hagan has crossed the $300 mark.  That’s right!  The Guru is on strike until the community contributes another $250 to Hagan.

Contributions to Hagan will be money very well spent.  Hagan’s primary victory last Tuesday gave her a great deal of momentum; and, the most recent poll actually sees her in a statistical dead heat with (actually, with a one point lead over) the contemptible Elizabeth Dole.  Hagan is well-positioned to make the North Carolina Senate race a top tier battle.  But she needs our help with raising the resources necessary to cut through Dole’s spin.

We can help make this a top tier race.  I feel strongly enough about that that I’m willing to go on strike until we reach the $300 mark for her on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.  C’mon, whether it’s ten wonderful people giving $25 each or one generous soul chipping in $250, I want to see the Senate Guru community step up to help Hagan and put Dole on notice.

From an anonymous tipster:

Step 1: We find the worst play ever written. Step 2: We hire the worst director in town. Step 3: We raise two million dollars…One for me, one for you. There’s a lot of little old ladies out there! Step 4: We hire the worst actors in New York and open on Broadway and before you can say Step 5, we close on Broadway, take our two million and go to Rio.

Before the April 22nd special primary, Democrat Travis Childers picked up the key endorsements of the Tupelo-based Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal and the Columbus Commercial Dispatch.  Add another key endorsement to the list for Childers — the Memphis Commercial Appeal:

The Commercial Appeal believes Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis W. Childers of Booneville is the best person to complete the U.S. House term, which expires in early January. […]

Childers, who labels himself a conservative Democrat, has stressed the importance of voting against trade deals that cost American jobs. He is a strong supporter of public education, saying it’s time for the nation, as a whole, to provide schools with the materials and support they need. That is important in a district where only 65 percent of teens graduate from high school and only 10 percent of the population has a college degree.

As for Iraq, Childers believes it is time to bring the troops home “honorably, safely and soon,” while providing them with material support until that happens. He recently told this newspaper’s editorial board that it is time to bring the troops home and spend the money we are sending to Iraq on projects in the United States.

Why not Greg Davis?  Because he’s an unapologetic agent of the Bush Administration’s disastrous policies at home and abroad:

Over the years, however, this editorial board always has looked favorably at candidates who have shown a degree of political independence. Davis has given no indication that he’ll stray far from the Bush administration’s stand on important issues, including the war in Iraq. That fact should not be lost on 1st District voters, especially when opinion polls are showing that the majority of citizens believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Well said.

The New York Post seems to think so:

Defying disgusted constituents and angry Republican leaders, disgraced Rep. Vito Fossella has told pals he plans to seek re-election.

And, shockingly, the Staten Island pol is feeling “pretty good,” he confided to friends.

“I got every indication that he plans to run again,” said Guy Molinari, Fossella’s political mentor, who’s been in close contact with the embattled 43-year-old politician.

Fossella is up for re-election in November.

“He’s not just inclined to run. He plans on running,” said Molinari, a former congressman and Staten Island borough president who was succeeded by Fossella as the de facto leader of the borough’s GOP.

This doesn’t jive with earlier reports saying that Fossella would resign by Monday.

The Staten Island Advance has its own take:

Fossella did not return a call for comment last night, and it’s very possible that the posturing could merely be a trial balloon to gauge whether Fossella could realistically continue in office.

A Fossella spokeswoman did issue the following statement on his behalf at 12:15 Sunday morning: “Congressman Fossella appreciates the support of so many people, including Guy Molinari, but he has not made any decision yet. And he continues to spend time with his family.”

The Advance also reports that state Sen. Diane Savino, Councilman Michael McMahon, and Assemblyman Michael Cusick are all actively considering the race on the Democratic side.

(H/T: NY13 Blog)