This seems too good to be true. Rasmussen (5/1, likely voters):
Rick Noriega (D): 43
John Cornyn (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4%)
If this is anywhere near accurate, the results are shocking. But if Noriega is to make a race of this, he’ll have to get his fundraising machine in gear: his war chest is only 4% of Cornyn’s $8.7 million on-hand.
(H/T: JLGarsh)
I’ve never posted a diary before, but I just came across this bit of good news on Rasmussen.
SurveyUSA (4/30-5/1, registered voters, 3/12 in parens):
Al Franken (D): 42 (41)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (51)
Undecided: 6 (7)
(MoE: ±4%)
I haven’t bought the premise that this race is a “tossup”, and if this poll is any indication, Franken has some work to do before it can become one.
The confetti from last night’s LA-6 election has not even been swept away and excuses for the Republican’s most recent humiliation are already rolling out. This morning, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza is trotting out the GOP’s argument for why they lost this seat and the IL-14, which they lost in March.
Given the competing national and local factors, both parties have a credible argument to make about today’s vote. Democrats will argue that Cazayoux’s victory in a Republican-leaning seat is yet one more sign that the Republican party’s brand is badly damaged and that independent voters are disenchanted with the GOP. Republicans will counter that both Jenkins and Jim Oberweis, the dairy magnate who carried their flag in the Illinois special election, were poor candidates whose losses should not be interpreted as a sign of anything other than that bad candidates often are defeated.
The tie breaker in this argument will come in ten days time when voters in Mississippi’s 1st district head to the polls in another special election — this one to fill the seat of appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R). The northern Mississippi seat leans heavily to Republicans — Bush won it with 62 percent in 2004 and 59 percent in 2000 — and both parties have fielded credible candidates. Should Republicans lose in Mississippi, the panic button will officially be pushed among party strategists.For tonight, the only clear winner is Cazayoux who comes to Congress and immediately becomes the favorite to win a full term in November. House Democrats also have to feel very good tonight, having grown their majority by two seats since re-taking control of the chamber in November 2006.
Tie breaker? There is no tie, we won the first two contested House races of 2008. How many more times do we have to win? The Republicans won for decades with morons like Jim Oberweiss and Woody Jenkins. Look at Jim Bunning and Tom Coburn in the Senate (and may more than I care to list). And how “credible” is Greg Davis when we all know he took awards from the neo-confederate CCC? Yes, Cazayoux is the big winner. It was his name on the ballot, but the victory was a team effort from the national Democrats to the netroots to local activists. This win is a DEMOCRATIC win. But before I wind this diary up, I want to leave you with last night’s press release from the NRCC.
“This should come as a warning shot to Democrats,” the NRCC said in a post-election press release. “The elitist behavior of the Democratic front-runner and the liberal and extremist positions that he and his fellow Democrats in Congress have staked their claim to, do not appear to be as salient as they once hoped.”
Uhhh guys, who won?
Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.
Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***
1 more House race now has a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last week:
GA-03 – R+?,
And one race comes off the list entirely!:
LA-06 – R+7, following Don Cazayoux’s superb special election victory last Saturday.
So 414 races filled! This of course includes 235 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.
But we also have 179 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.
So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 179
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0
Districts with rumoured candidates – 5
Districts without any candidates – 5
Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11
The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-02 – R+13,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-49 – R+10,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-12 – R+5,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-24 – R+3,
FL-25 – R+4,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
ID-02 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-15 – R+6,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-05 – R+20,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-01 – R+20,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
LA-04 – R+7,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-09 – R+0,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
MO-09 – R+7,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
MT-AL – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
SC-04 – R+15,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
UT-03 – R+22,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-07 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-05 – R+7.1,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,
The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
None at this stage
The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
LA-05 – R+10,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-10 – R+4,
OK-01 – R+13,
WI-05 – R+12,
And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.
The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:
AL-06 – R+25,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
KY-05 – R+8
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-21 – R+13,
Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.
It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in New York and Wisconsin. Thats 40 states with a full slate, and 2 states with one race to fill!
There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 Louisiana, Michigan and Oklahoma fill out.
Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.
It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.
With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.
*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***
Because it sure feels that way to me:
“This should come as a warning shot to Democrats,” the NRCC said in a post-election press release. “The elitist behavior of the Democratic front-runner and the liberal and extremist positions that he and his fellow Democrats in Congress have staked their claim to, do not appear to be as salient as they once hoped.”
Talk about lowering the bar. Suddenly Democrats should be on the defensive for winning Republican-held R+6.5 open seats in the South?
Hang in there, Tom Cole and friends. I know this must’ve been a rough night for you.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Don Cazayoux | (D) | 49,702 | 49.20% |
| Woody Jenkins | (R) | 46,741 | 46.27% |
| Ashley Casey | (I) | 3,718 | 3.68% |
RESULTS: LA SoS | Baton Rouge Advocate | NOLA.com
11:19PM: The last three precincts are in. The final result is Cazayoux 49.20%, Jenkins 46.27%. What a ride!
10:55PM (David): Wow. What a rollercoaster. The lesson here, obviously, is that if you don’t know exactly which precincts have reported, projecting things out in a tight race is a very inexact game. Jeffmd seemed to have a good read on those remaining EBR precincts, but ultimately, what matters most is that Don Cazayoux pulled off an extremely impressive win here. Nice work indeed!
10:50PM: CAZAYOUX WINS!!
10:48PM: CAZAYOUX TAKES THE LEAD!
10:47PM: I guess the Louisiana SoS has gone for a smoke break. Hang in there.
10:31PM: The final Livingston precinct is now in. It’s nothing but EBR from now on in. Hang on…
10:27PM: Damn, Jenkins has pulled ahead in EBR again.
10:24PM (David): The envelope is looking better. Please don’t get too excited, but if all of the outstanding precincts perform the same way those already counted have (on a parish-by-parish basis), then Cazayoux would come away with a very narrow win. Given how drastically EBR has shifted tonight, I wouldn’t bank on anything, though.
10:22PM: EBR is continuing to come in for Cazayoux. Come on, Han old buddy. Don’t let me down!
10:15PM: Cazayoux is pulling ahead in EBR now… it’s looking much closer.
10:06PM (David): My back-of-the-envelope spreadsheet suggests that Cazayoux would have to run 17 points ahead of where he’s been all night in the outstanding vote to be able to come back for the narrowest of wins. Not good.
10:01PM: This is not looking great — Cazayoux is getting smacked in East Baton Rouge so far.
9:52PM: Keep in mind that with 16 of 21 precincts reporting in West Baton Rouge, Cazayoux is up big — 1771 to 741.
9:49PM: Woody is starting this with a big lead (55%-41%) based in part on the strong returns from the very Republican Livingston Parish. We have a ways to go yet.
9:37PM: As expected, Livingston is coming in strongly for Jenkins. Feliciana looks tight.
9:18PM Eastern: The first results are trickling in — likely absentees. 51% Woody, 46% Cazayoux.
| Parish | Calongne | Jenkins | Total GOP | Cazayoux | Jackson | Total Dem |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascension | 637 | 893 | 1,530 | 936 | 180 | 1,116 |
| East Baton Rouge | 6,493 | 9,981 | 16,474 | 10,712 | 11,713 | 22,425 |
| East Feliciana | 211 | 575 | 786 | 720 | 781 | 1,501 |
| Iberville | 111 | 151 | 262 | 709 | 432 | 1,141 |
| Livingston | 1,252 | 2,706 | 3,958 | 2,950 | 342 | 3,292 |
| Pointe Coupee | 215 | 245 | 460 | 1,821 | 64 | 1,885 |
| St. Helena | 61 | 162 | 223 | 300 | 505 | 805 |
| West Baton Rouge | 205 | 258 | 463 | 1,255 | 591 | 1,846 |
| West Feliciana | 142 | 208 | 350 | 403 | 460 | 863 |
These are the turnout results from the April 5th primary runoff in Louisiana’s 6th District, where 59% of all votes cast were for Democrats. Now, tonight’s margin likely won’t be nearly as favorable for Democrats, but the numbers provide us some clues as to what to expect.
Ascension and Livingston parishes are the GOP strongholds here. Iberville, St. Helena, and Pointe Coupee (where Cazayoux’s home is located) are strong Democratic parishes in local and federal elections and Cazayoux should perform well here tonight. East and West Feliciana are historically Democratic, but have trended GOP in federal elections in recent years. Between the runoff performance and Cazayoux’s small town profile, I feel optimistic about the Democratic chances in Feliciana tonight.
Due to sheer vote power, Baton Rouge will decide this election. This is Woody’s hometown, and Bush won West and East Baton Rouge parishes by a decisive 55%-45% margin over John Kerry in 2004. Still, that’s not an insurmountable margin for a down-home Southern Dem to work with, and the city of Baton Rouge itself has seen a large influx of African-American residents from New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It will all come down to turnout here: Will the black vote come out strongly enough for Cazayoux, even though state Rep. Michael Jackson, defeated in the primary, is running TV ads telling his supporters that he’ll run in November as an independent? The Cazayoux campaign and the DCCC have been working the field hard, but it’s still, of course, up in the air until the returns come in.
We’ll find out after 8pm Central/9pm Eastern tonight.
Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress
Weather Does Not Dampen Will of Ohio’s Fighting 16th Congressional District!
I had the opportunity to catch up with Ian Walton, Campaign Manager for John Boccieri for Congress, this afternoon. Mother nature wasn’t very cooperative with rain showers, wind gusts, and unusually cool temperatures, but that doesn’t stop “The Boccieri Corps” here in the fighting 16th District!
Ian reported, here, to “The Out-Post”:
It’s encouraging to know that supporters for the Major are anxious and ready to mobilize whether rain or shine!
Ohio’ 16th Congressional District covers Stark, Wayne, part of Ashland, and part of Medina counties. We have a unique district in the fact that it lies across two old rail lines and the canal system of past generations. The economics range from the displaced middle-class factory workers, to rural family farmers, and urban center-city workers.
Ian went on to add:
The weather didn’t keep us from reaching out and talking with voters about John’s message for change in every corner of the district.
And, State Senator Major John Boccieri’s message bears repeating often as Ohio’s 16th Congressional District becomes a “poster child” for what has gone wrong through the actions of the Bush Administration.
• We still see our brave men and women serving in the Armed Forces, and in harms way, being injured and killed. It’s clear after 5 years of civil war we need to bring our troops home safely, honorably and soon.
• Once those soldiers return we must give them everything they need from health care to education.
• We need strong leadership that will bring our troops home safely, honorably and soon. The war in Iraq is costing Americans $12 billion a month, and the cost to our troops and their families is incalculable. Not expending $12 billion a month on the war would enable us to meet our obligations to our troops when they return, including the long-term health care so many will require as a result of their injuries.
• Bad trade deals have devastated the 16th Congressional District, shipping thousands of good paying jobs overseas. It’s time to vote ‘no’ on trade policies that take away Ohio’s workers’ ability to compete fairly in the global market and trade deals that don’t protect the environment or workers’ rights.
• Hundreds of families in our area don’t have health insurance. The families of the 16th Congressional District deserve a leader in Washington who will put their needs first and accomplish an expansion of affordable health care to more Ohioans.
• The cost of fuel is crippling our economy as our families confront choices between putting gas in their cars and other necessities. It’s time for a change to an energy policy that puts families’ needs before big oil profits. We need to invest in alternative and renewable energy, investments that would help create good jobs and sustainable economic growth and lessen our dependence on foreign oil.
Nothing is going to stop the momentum this campaign is building, and building fast. There is a strong eager core willing to work tirelessly to make sure State Senator Boccieri wins Ohio’s 16th Congressional District in November.
Ian had the bottom line, today:
We had troops out participating in various activities supporting Major Boccieri in all four counties in the 16th Congressional District today.
John Boccieri has “Boots on the Ground!