Swing State Project

Well, it’s still Sunday in mighty Mountain Time…

• IN-07: According to the Indianapolis Star, Democratic Rep. Julia Carson has committed herself to run for a sixth term in the House.  I can’t say that I’m thrilled with this development.  Carson, who has had the misfortune of dealing with a series of serious health issues during her tenure, has performed weakly in her last two campaigns against underfunded and low-profile challengers, despite occupying a district with a PVI of D+8.7.  While Kerry won Indiana’s 7th by 16 points in 2004, Carson only won by a margin of 10.  And while Democratic performance in Indiana’s eight other congressional districts surged between 2004 and 2006, Carson’s margin of victory slid to a mere 8 points, despite outspending her opponent by a lopsided margin and receiving DCCC assistance.  This seat shouldn’t be in play, but as long as Carson is on the ballot, it will present a rare opportunity for House Republicans.  (H/T: Blue Indiana)
• IL-18: Dick Versace for Congress?  Will he play in Peoria?
• NH-01: Jeb Bradley offers his 100% support for the Iraq War.
• WA-08: Make Dave Reichert pay the price for his enduring support of President Bush.  Toss in some coin to the Burn Bush effort via the Blue Majority page.
• Consultants take note!  People-powered guru DavidNYC offers his step-by-step guide on how to run (and win) a congressional campaign in 2008.
  

Do you live in a safely Democratic Congressional district? Are you eager to add to the Democratic Congressional majority? Want to tie down incumbent Republican resources in a top Democratic House pick-up opportunity?

Adopt our district!

It doesn’t matter if you’ve ever stepped foot in the district before or not, we welcome you here in West Virginia’s Second Congressional District.

West Virginia State Senator John Unger is a progressive Democrat who needs our support to successfully challenge vulnerable Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (WV-02). Your help today can make a major difference in this race.

The Curse of Capito

In early 2006, I moved to WV-02 and became an active volunteer for the Democratic challenger. There I met Carnacki, a long-time district activist and well-known member of dailyKos. One major contribution WV-02 Dems made in ’06 was forcing Rep. Capito to buy an easy win (57% of vote). She panicked, stopped funding other candidates and even held two fund-raisers in DC the last week of the election.

Still, it was a disappointing outcome here in the district. The challenger never had money to get his message out, the voters were once again duped and we’re stuck with two more years of mis-leadership for WV-02.

The curse of Capito fell over our district in 2000 with the ill winds of Pres. George Bush’s installation to office. Vulnerable Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is the daughter of the former Rep., W.Va. Gov., and ex-con Arch A. Moore. Her path from college career counselor to W.Va. legislator to U.S. House was paved with her middle name. Like George Bush, it’s long past time her public dis-service ended.

A moderate-in-name-only, Capito has shown her true colors by supporting Bush in his greatest time of need. She has a nasty penchant to talk out of both sides of her mouth. She said she was against the surge, but refused to vote against it. She said she supports worker’s rights, but refused to vote for the Employee Free Choice Act. She said she believes in oversight and accountability in Iraq, but votes against it.

As a four-term incumbent, Capito has accumulated remarkable little power or prestige. Her greatest legislative accomplishments are founding the Civility Caucus and, just last month, passing a law making something already illegal, well, still illegal. Scratch behind the ear of any Republican Rep. under indictment, investigation, or incarceration and you’ll find she’s gladly received money from them (she was the single largest recipient of Tom Delay PAC funds) and her good friend Bob Ney is now sitting in a W.Va. prison.

Who is John Unger?

Unger has a compelling personal biography. He was the first in his family to attend college yet he took time off from school to work with Mother Teresa in the slums of Calcutta. He’s a Rhodes Scholar. In his 9 years as a State Senator he has passed hundreds of pieces of legislation. He’s provided aid to refugees in Hong Kong and Turkey. In 2003, he spent 3 months in Iraq working with Save the Children. He’s a person of compassion and competence. He has strong moral and intellectual integrity.

These experiences shape his political beliefs. Unger help deliver aid to the Kurds after the Gulf War in 1995 and aid to the Iraqis during our occupation in 2003. He advocates we turn Iraq over to the Iraqis and bring our troops home from Iraq immediately. Unger would be one of the few Reps. with on-the-ground experience in Iraq. [Perhaps the only one with NGO experience?] He knows there needs to be a political solution in Iraq, instead of a military solution.

West Virginia Netroots Support

Unger is a rare combination of someone who was both the Netroots activists’ and the DCCC’s first choice. After West Virginia native Christy Hardin Smith spurned our efforts to draft her for the WV-02 race, we turned to recruiting W.Va. State Sen. John Unger. Carnacki lives in his district and has known him for several years.

The day after Election ’06, Carnacki and I started actively laying the groundwork to knock her off this cycle. One thing missing in W.Va. was an online progressive voice–we redoubled our efforts to grow West Virginia Blue to help fill that void and sustain progressive candidates at all levels in W.Va. We strongly endorse John Unger as a progressive voice for WV-02.

Unger is newly introduced to the Netroots. He just recently read "Crashing the Gate" and has welcomed our support for his campaign. Since he announced, Carnacki and I have met with for extended dinner conversations lasting late into the night. He’s comfortable meeting on our turf–the same Waffle House Carnacki and I meet at every few weeks to plot Capito’s downfall!

Unger has already been a fast learner of one key Netroots lesson: fight back hard at baseless right-wing attacks. In an optimistic sign for 2008, when John Unger fired back at a smear attempt by the W.Va. GOP last month, the largest paper in the district called out the Republicans for their "hateful tactic".

John Unger embraces the label of progressive Democrat. His life experiences demonstrate his commitment to social and economic justice. He is strongly against any form of discrimination against anyone, including discrimination based on race, religion, gender, and sexual orientation. In a recent meeting, he spoke with passionate about hate crimes being not just crimes, but crimes against humanity.

Unger is an accomplished legislator. Elected to the W.Va. Senate at age 28, he’s been an independent, effective, results-oriented state senator. He’s passed over 230 bills including the West Virginia Water Resources Protection Act, the Voluntary Farmland Protection Program and legislation that created the West Virginia Division of Energy. Unger is running on a platform of getting out of Iraq, energy independence, and universal healthcare.

These qualifications are in sharp contrast with vulnerable Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito. The path to her mis-leadership was paved by her middle name. The path to John Unger’s leadership was been paved with hard work, a strong moral core and exemplary competence.

Capito consistently prioritizes the needs of Pres. George Bush and the GOP "team" first. John Unger lives a life of public service, prioritizing the needs of constituents first. Crapito demagogues. Unger gets results.

Adopt Our District

In summary, John Unger is Democrat who can win WV-02 this cycle. The field is clear from him in the Democratic primary. He needs financial support to get his progressive message out past the conservative-dominated state media. We’re working hard every day to turn WV-02 from Red to Blue.

As strong as our candidate is, we face an uphill battle. The power of incumbency and a conservative-dominated state media is strong. Entrenched interests in West Virginia cross party lines. Still, we’ve got a real chance this cycle. We’ve got a smart hard-working candidate–we just needs the resources to get the job done. This is our best shot. Unfortunately, if we don’t unseat her now, Capito could remain a fixture of West Virginia politics for life.

Please help us end the Bush-Capito reign of WV-02. Help us send progressive Democrat John Unger to Washington in 2008. Your contribution of any size will make a difference.

Clem Guttata
WV-02 Volunteer Netroots Activist
West Virginia Blue
http://www.wvablue.com

Similar diary appeared as a guest-post at Down With Tyranny.

1) Run as a Dem and take in 40% of the vote.

2) Run again as a Dem two years later during a wave election and scarf up 42% of the vote.

3) Give up on the Democratic Party, declare it identical to the Republican Party, and say the following to woo potential supporters during your run as an independent:

Wake up and smell the coffee–if that’s what is smelling.  No major party since Buckley v Valeo will ever represent the people anymore.

No.  It is you who endanger the democracy by supporting the major parties who serve only the special interests.  Time to wake up.

Lieberman is no progressive.  Wake up.  Special interests control us.  We need independents.

Sorry for the type.  But get the message and stop the vitriol.

No major party candidate will  represent a democracy any more.  Wake up.  There will be no difference between English and a democrat who will be controlled by the leadership.

Independents will lead the way.  Join me.

You are living in a fool’s paradise.  What happened after the 2006 elections?  Think.

You are serving the wrong master and harming the democracy.  Look at where the money comes from and goes to and you will know who runs the parties.  Think.  The democracy is at stake.  Perhaps much more.

Bull feathers.  No one tried harder than me to change the party from within.  It is impossible.  Wake up.  And since when did you gain the power to exclude non-democrats from a national blog.  Wake up and think.

grow up

And you have chosen to support evil.  Follow the money.

You are contributing to the demise of democracy.  Follow the money.  What is the good of electing Democrats if they are the same as Republicans in the end?  Wake up while there is still time.

I didn’t realize that this website was devoted to the elimination of free speech.

The real fight is to save the democracy.  Join me.

The Democrats have become like the Republicans–special interest run.

The lesser of two evils is still an evil.

Why be wedded to a name.  Wed the ideals.

Join me.  Let’s save the democracy.

I only sued once.  Trial in February.

I run to save our democracy.

7 killed today in Iraq.  The Congress is on vacation.  Wake up.

But to use resources to feed both major parties when they have destroyed our democracy is not a waste?  Wake up.

One runs to speak out.

4) Profit!!!

(From the diaries. Please welcome Darcy Burner to the Blue Majority page. – promoted by James L.)

As already seen on places like Atrios and Dailykos, there is a major blogosphere fundraiser taking place now for Darcy Burner. The Republican incumbent in Darcy Burner’s district, Dave Reichert, is hosting a fundraiser with George W. Bush. As such, the blogosphere is countering by raising funds for Darcy Burner, who epitomizes the phrase, “more and better Democrats.” Darcy Burner has also been added to the Blue Majority page.


Darcy Burner is the anti-Bush Dog. Here she is on FISA:

And here is her Bush indebted opponent, Dave Reichert:





So, chip in some cash to Darcy. Already, more than 450 people have done so, to the tune of more than $18,000. Let’s put more and better Democrats in Congress!

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

And what a week it's been. 

Update (Trent): In adddition to the usual open thread banter, we're gonna throw in a caption contest. Let's see what you guys can come up with for this photo taken today of Alabama Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks:

Don Walton has the story:

Bob Kerrey stepped to the brink of a possible 2008 Senate bid Thursday.

Kerrey placed a conference call to New School University trustees in New York City to inform them he may be returning to Nebraska.

A decision on whether to return to his roots and attempt to once again represent Nebraska in the Senate is likely “within the next couple of weeks,” Kerrey said in a telephone interview.

This pretty much lines up with the timeline of Hagel's decision. By Labor Day, we're going to know what the field looks like.

On every issue outside of Iraq and Social Security, Kerrey's as progressive a Democrat as you will find in the state of Nebraska. He's popular, he's not afraid of a fight, and he knows how to win elections. 

You can talk about his “Liebermanesque” tendencies to bash Democrats, but he doesn't pull punches on the Republicans (I'm sure you've heard his take on the etymology of Rick Santorum's last name, or at least what Rudy Giuliani should have said on 9/11).

He was a huge supporter of Jim Webb in Virginia, and of course Scott Kleeb in Nebraska. And in four years as governor, and twelve years as Senator, he did everything he could for the state of Nebraska. I'd support a Kerrey for Senate campaign without reservation. We'll see in the next couple of weeks if that's a reality. 

One of the most Republican areas of Oklahoma is the north Oklahoma City suburb of Edmond. State Senator Andrew Rice is making waves in a political climate where people, even Republicans, are wanting a change.

see below

The editorial gets the heart of what makes this race so intruiging:

On the morning of Sept. 11, 2001, a prominent Oklahoma City attorney, Hugh Rice, received a phone call from his oldest son, David Rice, who was an executive for a company in the World Trade Center in New York City. David advised his Dad that a plane had crashed into the side of the World Trade Center, but it was on the other side of the building from where his office was located, and he did not want his parents to be worried about him.

Shortly after the phone conversation was concluded another plane crashed into the other side of the World Trade Center and David Rice died when the building collapsed. The devastated Rice family came together in Oklahoma City to bury David and attempted to deal with the enormity of their loss.

David’s brother Andrew, an alumnus of Colby College in Maine and Harvard Divinity School, was at that time an independent film producer who recently had completed a film about the effects of AIDS in India. But as Andrew wrestled with his grief, he decided he would memorialize his brother by returning to Oklahoma and enter public life in an effort to improve the lives of the citizenry. In accordance with that goal, Andrew Rice was elected to the Oklahoma State Senate in 2006 from District 46, which is in the mid-city area of Oklahoma City. By all accounts, Rice has proven to be an effective legislator who is willing to work with all of his colleagues to get legislation he believed would benefit his constituents enacted into law.

READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE HERE:
http://www.edmondsun…

HELP US IN OKLAHOMA KEEP THE SUPPORT COMING FOR SEN. RICE, give what you can on ACTBLUE:
http://www.actblue.c…

And Rice’s campaign site is partially up, and they say it will be done soon
http://www.andrewforoklahoma.com

More waffling from former Ohio Republican AG Jim Petro on his prospective bid to succeed Deborah Pryce in the House:

Former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro is leaning against a run for the 15th Congressional District seat to be vacated at the end of 2008 by the retirement of incumbent Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce, according to Republican sources.

Petro has been considered the leading GOP candidate for the congressional seat, but sources close to him said it appears Petro will forgo the race and keep open the option of running for Ohio chief justice in 2010.

Petro declined to comment on whether he would pull his name from consideration for Congress. “I have not reached a decision, but will soon,” he told The Dispatch this afternoon.

As Bones would say: dammit, Jim!

According to the Columbus Dispatch, another potential candidate, Republican state Rep. Jim Hughes has put his name out of contention.  But there are other names in the field:

The potential field of GOP candidates to replace Pryce quickly is narrowing. Former Franklin County Commissioner Dewey Stokes has expressed interest in running. Former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka also is gaining traction in some Republican circles. Lashutka, an executive with Nationwide Insurance, has been unavailable for comment on whether he is entertaining a bid for Congress.

Buckeye State Blog has more on Lashutka:

Lashutka’s the former two term mayor of Columbus who didn’t run for re-election in ’99 due to health concerns. He’s also an OSU namesake, having played tight-end for the fabled Woody Hayes in the 60’s. Since he left office, he’s stayed involved in the community, and served a prominent role with nationwide insurance. Republicans know they can still count on Lashutka at fundraising events these days, and he even makes it out to stuff for the Democrats occasionally too. The man has been out of politics through the Bush years, so it’s more difficult to tarnish him with the image of the modern day GOPer.

Lashutka could be a strong nominee, and I don’t expect Republicans to cede this race any time soon.  But with the district’s Democratic trend (Kerry improved upon Gore’s performance by 6% here), the organizational advantages and name recognition built up by Kilroy, and a Presidential race that could tilt Ohio towards the D column, Lashutka or any other Republican candidate would have to show some hustle.

…as a Democrat?  From the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

Friedman said he is considering running again for governor in 2010, as a Democrat.

“God probably couldn’t have won as an independent,” Friedman said.

“My focus would be on education and getting rid of the death penalty. I don’t think that’s a radical view. What part of ‘Thou shalt not kill’ don’t people understand?”

Now, I’m not from Texas, but as I recall, Kinky’s lackluster 12.6% of the vote that November was attributable to his schtick wearing thin over the course of the campaign.

The response to this idea over at the Burnt Orange Report is, not surprisingly, overwhelming negative.

Charlie Cook has released his latest rankings for the 2008 Senate seats.

 Some things to note:

 -Cook believes that as many as seven Republican senators could retire this cycle and only one Democrat (Johnson). To put this in perspective, there were only four actual retirements in 2005-2006 with only one of them being a Republican, Dayton (D-MN), Sarbanes (D-MD), Jeffords (I-VT), and Frist (R-TN).

 -The only two Democrats who are not considered safe are Landrieu (leans Dem) and Johnson (Likely Dem) (possible retirement)

The hard numbers of the 2005-2006 cycle should have given the Republicans a built-in defense against the Dems taking the Senate (they had a 55-45 advantage at the time) but even then they couldn't prevent it. This time around there are a large number of Republican retirements, quite a few of them in states which are likely to be swing states in 2008 (Virginia and New Mexico come to mind). Even if no one else retires we're still in a very good position to build a filibuster-proof Senate majority by the end of the 2009-2010 cycle.