Swing State Project

Well 7 more districts now have candidates:
CA-44,
NJ-05,
NY-23,
NY-26,
OH-14,
PA-16,
VA-10,

But 2 are now back to uncontested:
FL-25,
GA-10,

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki. & DCCritters.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

305 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 72 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 72
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 3
Districts with rumoured candidates – 36
Districts without any candidates – 91

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-41,
CA-44,
CA-48,
CA-50,
CO-04,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-13, [Either through the House of Reps investigation or Jennings has committed to another run.]
FL-15,
FL-21,
FL-24,
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-05,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-01,
NM-02,
NY-23,
NY-25,
NY-26,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-01,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-14,
OH-15,
OH-16,
PA-03,
PA-15,
PA-16,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-11,
TX-13,
TX-14,
VA-05,
VA-06,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-08,
WI-01,
WY-AL,

2) The following 3 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
PA-18,
SC-04,
WV-02,

3) The following 36 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-01,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-42,
CA-45,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-10,
FL-12,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
IL-06,
IN-03,
IN-04,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NC-05,
OK-04,
PA-06,
TN-07,
TX-02,
UT-03,
VA-01,
VA-11,

4) And last but not least the following 91 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-40,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-14,
FL-18,
FL-25,
GA-10,
ID-02,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-01,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-09,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-07,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
WA-05,
WI-05,
WI-06,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Washington and West Virginia. Thats 16 states with a full slate (17 when I can conform Unger in WV-02) and 6 states with one race to fill! That is almost half the states full or nearly full 17 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in VA-06 and TX-11, 2 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

According to Todd Hill at the Burnt Orange Report, State Rep. Rick Noriega is set to form an exploratory committee in one week to challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn.  This move would put him up against trial lawyer Mikal Watts for the Democratic nomination.  Watts has already shown an early hustle, helping raise $1.1M for the DSCC back in April, and injecting $3.8 million of his own funds into his Senate campaign a few weeks ago.  Noriega, a Houston Democrat who has been the target of a draft campaign, didn’t appear daunted at the time, and has been busy preparing for a run after his wife’s recent election for the at-large Houston City Council district formerly held by the one and only Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.  According to the Austin American-Statesman:

Noriega, a fifth-term Democratic state representative from Houston, said he won’t finalize plans until he and his wife, Melissa, settle their finances, partly by selling property in East Austin. But he has already committed to a year’s leave from his job as a manager for CenterPoint Energy. (Emphasis added)

And while Watts will still have his impressive financial prowess, Noriega will have the support of many of his colleagues in the state legislature: 49 of his 68 fellow Democrats in the Texas House have signed a public letter supporting the draft efforts.

The Statesman gives a better taste of the upcoming Noriega candidacy:

Watts and Noriega paint Cornyn as weak and obedient to President Bush, a critique that Cornyn disputes.

Noriega, whose great-grandmother crossed into Texas from Mexico in 1916, is author of a law permitting in-state college tuition rates for illegal immigrants.

He said Senate inaction on immigration showed Cornyn’s inability to work across party lines. Cornyn, like many Republicans, did not go along with what had been pitched as compromise legislation bringing Democrats and the White House together.

Noriega favored the bill.

Noriega accused Cornyn of pandering to a “fringe ideology” by voting to have a fence built on stretches of the U.S.-Mexico border. Noriega called the fence a waste of money unlikely to stem illegal immigration.

“Doesn’t make sense,” Noriega said of Cornyn’s position. “It’s a function of a lack of understanding, inexperience, not listening to the professionals on the ground.”

Noriega favors removing U.S. troops from Iraq. He doesn’t want to see more friends coming home in boxes.

Noriega said that if he runs, he’ll talk up the idea of Americans committing to public service: “The question becomes: What do we do individually to ensure that we as a nation are on the right path?”

As long as this primary remains “good clean fun” (a tall order, but it is my understanding that both candidates have pledged to run positive campaigns), a Watts-Noriega battle could do a lot for raising the profile of this race and energizing the grassroots across Texas. 

Let the games begin.

From the Norwich Bulletin:

Sean Sullivan admits his first Federal Elections Commission report to be filed in two weeks won’t make many people stand up and take notice of his candidacy.

The presumptive Republican congressional candidate in Connecticut’s 2nd District said this week he’ll likely report between $25,000 and $30,000 raised since entering the race in early April. Those numbers will pale in comparison to incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney’s, D-2nd District, filing, which should show the freshman lawmaker well past the $500,000 mark.

So Sullivan, a guy who has been touted as a potentially strong recruit to Courtney, couldn’t crack the $30,000 mark in the first full three months of his campaign.  Meanwhile, Courtney reportedly pulls in over $500K in the second quarter, which will add nicely to the $380K cash-on-hand he reported in his April filings.  Does Sullivan have a clue?

With no previous political experience, Sullivan said he has spent much of the first three months of his candidacy simply learning how to run a campaign.

“I’ve been educating myself on what needs to be done,” he said. “I’ve talked with the folks at the Republican National Congressional Committee in Washington. I’ve been talking with (former Congressman) Rob (Simmons) and a number of others, including Chris Healy, who have in the past played a major role in Rob’s past campaigns.”

Sullivan chuckled at the advice national party officials gave him.

“They told me I needed to raise $1 million by the end of the year,” he said. “Raising $100,000 might be more realistic, like Rob did when he first challenged (former Congressman) Sam Gejdenson. But the bottom line, before I can expect any significant help from the party, national or state, I first have to prove myself.” (emphasis added)

Proving yourself, in the bare-knuckle world of congressional politics, would include the ability to raise the necessary funds to display viability, Sean.  And I love the laff-and-a-haff line about raising $100K before the year is over.  Yup, that kind of talk will definitely inspire the decision-makers over at the NRCC.

It’s got to be incredibly dispiriting for many potential GOP candidates to be facing supposedly vulnerable freshmen who are on pace to raise $1 million or more in their first year in the House, as the DCCC is pressuring its freshmen members to do.  And because fundraising superiority has always been one of the ways Republicans have won, it puts them at an even huger disadvantage than Democrats would have been in the reverse situation.

(Hat tip: Connecticut Local Politics)

Anyone following the run-up to the 2008 election in Michigan’s 7th district can be glad to know that a serious contender has emerged. I have heard that David Nacht has raised $155,000 this past quarter. This is exactly what this race needs, a real challenger who can generate excitement and support. Through his actions and words, Tim Walberg has proven that the 7th district is a winnable district for Democrats in ’08. Nacht’s ability to raise money puts him in a strong position to challenge Walberg. Nacht not only has the ability to raise money, but he has also worked for John Glenn, gaining DC experience, and successfully unseated a Republican township board, showing his ability to build and sustain grassroots support. Fundraising success, grassroots support, and practical experience all serve as a great foundation for making a successful run at Congress. If you are looking for more information on David Nacht, check out his website, www.nacht4congress.com.

Since the second quarter of 2007 ended tonight, and since I'm a total geekazoid when it comes to looking at fundraising numbers, I decided to follow-up on Thursday night's post tallying the 20 hottest House candidates as ranked by their total 2007 fundraising on Actblue.com. To deepen the picture, I’ve also added the total number of contributors this time. Here is the new ranking:

An exciting crop of challengers, to be sure. But this list also shows the role for both small and large dollar fundraising with Actblue. And by looking at both the depth and breadth of these funds, Blue Majority candidates Charlie Brown and Donna Edwards are in good shape with a large small donor base. I’m looking forward to those 2Q reports!

Steve Black, Democratic Candidate for Congress from OH-2 has posted a position paper on Irag:

A New Direction For Iraq

The situation in Iraq is grave. There are no easy answers to the numerous challenges presented by Iraq’s multi-sided civil war and the increasing threat of terrorism and regional insecurity the war has fostered. However, we must act now to contain the violence and move the region toward stability, as well as to ensure that our superb military is not stretched thin and that it used more effectively.

I believe it is imperative to reduce troop levels in Iraq and to begin their phased redeployment to strategic counter-terrorism missions under the guidance of our military leadership. Aggressive diplomacy is also long overdue to ensure that our allies and Iraq’s neighbors have a strong incentive to promote regional security; greater diplomatic efforts are also necessary to quell heightened tensions in the Israeli-Arab conflict. A renewed focus on Afghanistan is likewise critical – the gains we made there are rapidly being lost as the Taliban and al-Qaeda regroup. In addition, we must fulfill a moral duty, as well as protect our long-term security interests, by dealing with the huge refugee crisis arising from the Iraq War. Finally, we must ensure that the military and their families who have borne the burdens of Iraq receive the best of care and services – it is the right thing to do, and it is common sense to ensure that our military stays strong to continue the fight against terrorism and to make our nation secure.

The complete position paper on Iraq is here:
http://www.steveblac…

Murphy West
OH-02 Democrat
It’s time for Jean Schmidt to go.

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

I hope you all have a great weekend!

I’m very pleased to announce that we’ve smashed through our goal of 150 new contributions for Charlie Brown and Donna Edwards on the DailyKos/MyDD/SSP Actblue page. In total, we've collected 180 new donations for Charlie Brown and 188 for Donna Edwards. If you haven't made a contribution yet, get on over to the Actblue page and shake some action before the second quarter deadline passes tonight at midnight!

When I watched former Vice President Gore on Larry King, it seemed as if he didn’t truly believe that the ‘real people’ on the street were really telling the truth when they said, every single one, of them: please run.

Well, a poll released this week in New Hampshire shows that the support is real, very real. Here’s the highlight.

The Gore factor:

The only obstacle for Clinton in the Democratic primary is Al Gore.  Twenty-nine percent of Clinton voters would switch to Gore if he announced for president, and when all of the switches from other Democratic candidates were recalculated, Gore would defeat Clinton.  In total, 32 percent of Democratic voters would support Gore over the candidate they are currently leaning toward.

Here’s why this poll is so important.

First of all, New Hampshire has seen every single person who is running about 15 times by now. They’ve seen them in big crowds and small meetings. They’ve seen their television commercials and heard the speeches. They take their role as first primary very seriously up there and they are not likely to be swayed by the flavor of the month.

So the fact that in New Hampshire, Al Gore is leading the minute he enters the race — pretty amazing. It’s also amazing because D.C. types are saying Gore is running out of time, he has to raise money, build infrastructure, create a ground operation in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Maybe not.

Maybe Al Gore can get in the race, October 15 is my bet. Maybe Al Gore can get in, run a true progressive campaign driven the community online. Maybe he can ignore the mainstream media that were just pathetic in the coverage of his great new book.

The poll also says this about what’s important to the voters there:

Iraq, the lead issue:

The most important issue to New Hampshire voters was the Iraq war (34 percent), followed by Homeland Security/terrorism (19 percent), health care (15 percent), economy/jobs (8 percent), education (7 percent), and the environment (7 percent).

So, it’s not all about the environment. Seems to me that the voters in New Hampshire know what they’re looking for. And his name is Al Gore.

On Wednesday, we asked Swing State Project readers to help ensure that Donna Edwards and Charlie Brown get at least 100 new donations before midnight on Saturday, when candidates must close their fundraising books for the quarter and begin readying their second quarter fundraising reports for the FEC.  As I write this, the DailyKos, MyDD and SSP communities have managed to step up to the plate, with 118 new donations for Charlie Brown, and 113 for Donna Edwards since the start of Wednesday.

Now, can we up the ante?  Can we get raise the goal from 100 to 150 new donations for each candidate?

I say: we can.  I say: we must.  2008 represents a crucial opportunity to not only expand our majority in the House, but also strengthen it.  Donna Edwards and Charlie Brown represent two great opportunities to reach for this goal.  As Laura says, we have the chance to replace John Doolittle, a guy who treats his campaign accounts like a slush fund for his wife, with Charlie Brown, a man who is giving 15% of all contributions made through his ActBlue page before the end of the quarter to Tahoe area fire victims.

In Donna Edwards, we have the chance to unseat Bush-collaborator and problem Democrat Al Wynn.  Jonathan Singer over at MyDD has a great interview up with Donna that I encourage you all to read.  The essence of her candidacy, and why Wynn needs to go, is summarized well in this exchange:

Singer: In case there are some folks particularly on MyDD who maybe were absent during the last cycle when Matt was writing so much about your race or missed Matt’s write up of your race just a couple of weeks ago, what’s the argument? Why does Al Wynn, someone who’s a Democrat – this is a Democratic district – why does he need to go?

Edwards: First of all, let’s be clear – it is solidly Democratic district. So what that means in our district is that we can actually have one of the most progressive Democrats in the Congress.

And instead we have the reverse. We have somebody who during the time of the Bush administration has voted with the President on really key issues, more conservative than this district deserves. He supported the President on the authorization to go to war when many of our Congresspeople here in Maryland actually didn’t support that authorization. He supported the President on the energy bill that gave billions of dollars in tax breaks to oil and gas companies the other Democrats in our district didn’t support that. He supported bankruptcy reform, which rewards credit card companies over consumers. The Democrats in our district didn’t support that. He supported a repeal of the estate tax, which took $50 billion out of the treasury benefiting one half of one percent of income earners.

That’s not our district. We don’t just need any Democrat. It matters what kind of Democrat we have. We need Democrats who are going to be leaders, who are going to stand out in front for the American people and for the people of the fourth district, and Al Wynn’s not that guy.

Like what you hear?  So do I.

Let’s give a crucial boost to Brown and Edwards.  Can we increase our total amount of new donations from 100 to 150 before the end of Saturday?

Let’s do this thing!