Swing State Project

What a wild ride.  And for a “wave”, we saw some pretty weird results–seats flipping that we didn’t think possible, while also some seats that many of us thought would flip to the Democrats in a wave year staying Republican.  What were the highlights of last night’s results for you?  Obviously there are still some outstanding races; CNN is refusing to call 11 10 (they just called PA-08 for Pat Murphy!) House seats just yet, and there will likely be recounts in many key races, but we did see a lot to cheer about–and a few disappointments, too.  I’ll run down some of mine.

Best:
• Watching John Hall (D), the upset shocker in NY-19, sing part of his victory speech!  John Hall’s victory should be inspiring to us all.
• The Democratic landslide in New Hampshire: not only did Paul Hodes knock off Charlie Bass, but Carol Shea-Porter carried the day in NH-01.  Go through all the major prognosticators–no one was expecting this one to flip, or even be close, including me.  Her victory was simply the biggest surprise of the night.  And to top it off, New Hampshire’s House and Senate just flipped to the Democrats.  The AP reports that this is the first time since 1922 that the NH State House has been controlled by the Democrats.
• Netroots victories: Paul Hodes, Jon Tester, Jim Webb (at least, it seems), Joe Sestak, Jerry McNerney, Patrick Murphy, and Tim Walz all won their districts.  The Burner-Reichert battle is still up in the air, Larry Kissell is down by under 500 votes with some ballots apparently still being counted (it’s unclear how many, and if it will be enough), Eric Massa barely lost (although he is not conceding yet), Linda Stender came within 1% of winning, Larry Grant got 45% to Bill Sali’s 50% in a district that gave around 69% of its vote to Bush in 2004, Dan Seals came within 6% in IL-10, and Gary Trauner is down by less than 1000 in Wyoming (CNN hasn’t made a call here yet, even though 100% of precincts are reporting).  This outta shut down the braying right-wing media commentaries on the “netroots curse” for good.
• Yarmuth!
• A tip of the hat to the genius at the DCCC who made the call to intervene in PA-04 and KS-02 at the 23rd hour–it apparently paid off with shocking upsets by Democrats Jason Altmire and Nancy Boyda, respectively.
• IA-02!  I still can’t believe that Dave Loebsack pulled off this stunner–this is second only to Carol Shea-Porter’s big win in New Hampshire in terms of shock factor.  Chuck Todd said this one would flip only if the Democrats won more than 40 seats.  Certainly this result disproves the idea of an even wave everywhere.
• MO-Sen: I’ve been so influenced by the culture of electoral defeat in the past 6 years that I purposefully kept my expectations low as far as McCaskill’s chances at knocking off Talent.  This was a very sweet victory for our side, and a very demoralizing loss for the Republicans.
• Oh yeah–one of the sweetest victories for me was seeing Chris Murphy wallop Republican Nancy Johnson in CT-05.  Somehow, in the least Democratic of the three Connecticut House seats contested this year, Johnson’s disgusting politics of fear and smear clearly backfired.  This is one to cherish, and Murphy should be considered a major rising star for Connecticut Democrats.

Worst
• Ohio.  Look, Ohio, I think it’s great that you got yourselves nice new Democratic Governor, and I thank you deeply for sending Sherrod Brown to the Senate.  I hate to look a gift horse in the mouth, but where the heck was the supposed anti-Republican sentiment in the House races?  I was hoping for big things in the 1st, 2nd, 15th, and heck, even the 12th district, but alas, Zack Space is the only Democratic pick-up in the Buckeye State this year. (Update: Let me make it clear here–I’m not expressing disappointment with the candidates and campaigns who ran tight races in Ohio.  Rather, it’s very clear that Wulsin, Cranley and Kilroy did a good job.  My sentiments were directed to the voters of these districts, who apparently did not want change as badly as I hoped they did.)
• So close, yet so far…  It certainly sucks to see great challengers like Lois Murphy, Diane Farrell, and Patricia Madrid come up just barely short–although NM-01 still has a few ballots to count, so perhaps I shouldn’t speak so soon.  On the bright side, if Joe Courtney’s 170-vote lead holds in CT-02, Chris Shays will be the only incumbent Republican House member left standing in New England.

All in all, it was a great night.  And that night continues into the daytime, as the ballots are still being counted–and are about to be recounted–in close races across the country.

[updated and revised from an earlier, pre-election post]

“[T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” — Donald Rumsfeld, Press Conference, Feb. 12, 2006

“Look at what Iraq is not doing, OK? They’re not competing with Iran to sponsor terror in the region. They’re not threatening Kuwait. We don’t have to station troops in Saudi Arabia. They’re not trying to restart the nuclear weapon program. All that would be happening under Saddam.” — Jim Talent (R-Mo.), Meet the Press, Oct. 8, 2006

The removal of Donald Rumsfeld today has been widely reported as a response to the Democratic victory in the election last night.  Yet there is another connection between those two events, and it has to do with the logic of the Republican party and its ultimate failure.  Simply put, the electoral defeat of the Republicans and the downfall of Rumsfeld are both signs that there are real limits to what I’ll call the “what if?” theory of the world.

What both Rumsfeld and the Republicans employ is a method of analysis where progress and success can be measured only by comparison to a hypothetical universe, a universe that only they can see.  The point of this line of argument is to push the debate past known facts (“known knowns,” in Rumsfeldian) and into the area of speculation and fictional scenarios –- on the theory that when you can’t argue the facts that are there, you might as well argue the facts that might have been there.

Anyone who has spent any time in the universe of political rhetoric should be familiar with this kind of argument.  It starts by citing a fact — let’s say that I claim that Bush has handled the economy poorly.  The facts for this assertion are simple.  The economy, as measured in the two most basic possible ways, is worse off under Bush than it was under Clinton: the stock market’s steady progression has faltered and job creation has been much slower.  (For a more detailed analysis, see this)

But, the response goes, those measures don’t count (indeed, Republicans did try, without much apparent success, to campaign on the strength of the economy); what matters is what would have happened if things had been different.  You see, all the good things that happened under Clinton were the result of external forces beyond anyone’s control — a chicken could have been president and had those results — and so none of the credit lies with Clinton.  As for Bush?  Well, given the external forces surrounding his term, the economy has performed much better than if he hadn’t been in control; he stewarded us through those rocky times and has brought us back to Clinton-era levels.

The ultimate conclusion is that if Bush had been running things when Clinton was president, the ’90s would have produced the best economy in the history of this country (except, of course, it already was … perhaps it would have been even better) and if Clinton was president instead of Bush, the ’00s would have been a complete economic disaster (hmm … completer?).  But, I have to admit, I can’t prove that Bush wouldn’t have been better and Clinton wouldn’t have been worse.  Gotcha!

This thinking reappeared in other races and in other contexts leading up to the election.  Bob Corker implied that Harold Ford’s opposition to the Patriot Act is dangerous, because it means that he opposes one of the tools necessary to stop terrorism.  His argument relied, in part, on a classic Tiger Repellant argument: the Patriot Act has been in place since 9/11, and because there haven’t been any terrorist attacks since 9/11, it is clear that the Patriot Act is necessary to stop terrorist attacks.  Still, that’s impossible to refute: I can’t say for sure that there wouldn’t have been a terrorist attack had we not put the Patriot Act into place.  Gotcha!

So, too, does the biggest, most important issue in this country — the Iraq War — likewise become a victim of the hypothetical.  Here, every conceivable metric for success is immediately attacked as irrelevant or inconclusive.  American dead: over 2700.  Well, they say, we didn’t go to war to minimize American deaths, we went to help the Iraqis.  Iraqi dead: tens of thousands dead (minimum) and over a million displaced.  Well, we didn’t go to war for Iraq, they say, we went to stop terrorist attacks.  Terrorist attacks: according to the government’s own statistics, attacks have increased dramatically since the beginning of the war (to the point where they are no longer publicly releasing figures).  Here they fall back to their ultimate rationale: we didn’t go to war to stop terrorist attacks now, we went to war to stop terrorist attacks in the future (invoking the familiar and increasingly tenuous connection between A) foreign invasion, B) establishment of democracy, and C) cessation of terrorist-producing conditions).

And it looks like they’ve got me there, too: I can’t measure whether or not the Middle East will produce fewer terrorists twenty years from now and I can’t measure whether the invasion has produced fewer attacks from 2003-2006 in a parallel universe where we didn’t invade.  For that matter, I can’t measure whether Iraq would have eventually developed a nuclear bomb and I can’t measure whether Saddam would have killed/displaced more Iraqis on his own.  Gotcha!

The traditional method of rational argument (marshalling evidence and positing conclusions drawn from that evidence) does not work in the face of imaginary universes; victory through reason is impossible to achieve because they’ve created a place where there are no facts and where there can never be any facts.

Thus, the fight against this is more than just a fight for a particular set of policies (although it is obviously that, as well).  It is a fight for a world where knowledge is based on observable, measurable, empirical evidence, instead of a world where intuitive belief generates its own facts.  A fight for real people’s lives instead of speculative people’s deaths.  A fight for a world where terms like “known unknowns” are relegated back to the category of oxymoron.

And so the connection between the inglorious exit of Donald Rumsfeld, who consistently looked at the Iraq he wanted to see instead of the Iraq that was there, and the defeat of Republicans like Jim Talent, who focused on what Iraq might have been instead of what Iraq has become, is clear.  An American public sick of the disconnect between hypothesis and reality finally used a weapon that the Republicans could not “what if?” their way out of.  In the end, what felled Rumsfeld and the Republicans was the very thing that they built this theory to protect themselves from: the intrusion of an empirical and observable phenomenon with objective results.  An election.

Henry Bonilla (R,TX-23) failed to capture 50% of the vote. That means he’ll face a runoff with none other than Ciro Rodriguez, whom we supported in a special election earlier in the year (that he did not win and left him in debt). Therefore, I demand (or politely beg) that we return Ciro to his rightful place on the Netroots Page. And while we’re at it, can we add Karen Carter, who will be William Jefferson’s democratic opponent in the runoff for LA-02?

Tonight was a wild ride and it ain’t over yet. What’s more exciting than seeing your team take it all the way? Doing it in overtime, of course! It’s an emotional roller coaster that goes something like this:

Good
Winning the House
Better
Maybe winning the Senate?
But…
Maybe losing the Senate you started to hope you’d win?

Good
Winning many close races
Better
Winning a few races no one expected
But…
Any incumbent we didn’t get rid of this year is going to be impossible to get any other year

Good
We’re in a good position to build House and Senate majorities in ’08
Better
With a majority of the governorships, gains in secretaries of state, and control of key states, we have the tools to assist the presidential nominee in ’08
But…
Given such a historic day, the victory speeches were pedestrian — where are our inspiring leaders for ’08 and beyond?

Am I the only one still at the dance?

With every town except Waterford reporting, Courtney is up by 239.  Most of Waterford’s elected officials are Republican (http://www.waterford…).  Therfore, we should expect Simmons to pick up some seats.  This is the same district that Gejdenson won by 4 votes (21 after the recount) in 1994.

We may be watching this one for a while.

-Dan

4:56PM: CNN is finally calling PA-08 for Pat Murphy.
3:36PM: CNN has called MT-Sen for Jon Tester!  I hope they have a great party in Big Sky Country tonight, because Jon Tester is truly one of finest new members of Congress this year.  Montana should be proud.
4:20AM: That’s it, I’m going to bed.  With 95% of the precincts reporting, incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall is leading by a sliver in GA-12–700 votes.  That’s pretty hairy, but hopefully he’ll pull through and ensure that 2006 was a bloodless year for House Democrats.  With 100% precincts reporting, it looks like Pat Murphy (D) has edged Mike Fitzpatrick by 1500 votes in PA-08, but CNN hasn’t called the race yet.  In less good news, it looks like Lois Murphy came just short yet again in PA-06, losing to Gerlach by a 3000 vote margin with 100% of precincts reporting (sadly, I expected this to happen)–but CNN hasn’t made a call here yet, either.  CT-02 is definitely headed for recount territory: Democrat Joe Courtney has a 220 vote lead with 97% of precincts reporting.  With 25% in, Burner (D) is behind Reichert by 4 in WA-08.  I have a strong suspicion that it’ll end up around that mark, too.  And with 99% in, Patricia Madrid (D) is 320 votes behind Heather Wilson in NM-01.  It’s hard to believe that we pulled off upsets like KS-02, PA-04, CA-11, and KY-03 and came just short in NM-01.  We’ll see what happens by morning–this is definitely heading for a recount here, as well.  I’m also a little disturbed to see the Montana Senate race coming down to a 1% margin for Tester with 84% in, but I’m told that a recount in Yellowstone county is stalling the tally.  According to McJoan on DailyKos, Tester was leading Yellowstone by around 1200 votes before its totals were pulled so the recount could commence.  So that explains it a bit.

But in any event–hey!  Democrats took back the House of Representatives, and depending on the outcome of MT-Sen, the Senate is poised to flip, too.  (I’m counting VA-Sen as a win, dammit!)  Give yourselves a nice pat on the back.  Just look at how much bluer this map is.  Feels good to see, doesn’t it?

Oh yeah–and this picture of Paul Hodes throwing it down in his victory celebration from NH Union Leader is one of my favorite images of the night:

4:07AM: Put Jerry McNerney and CA-11 on the big board!  Nicely done, team McNerney!
3:41AM: Jerry McNerney (D) has a 6-point lead over Richard Pombo (R) in CA-11 with 79% of precincts reporting.  McNerney hasn’t trailed all night, and I’m expecting him to still lead when this closes.  Woohoo!
2:12AM: Great news–CNN has called MO-Sen for Claire McCaskill!
2:10AM: Aw yeah!  CNN has just called IA-02 for the Democrats!  What a stunner.
1:47AM: Still with 99% of precincts reporting, Loebsack (D) has increased his margin over Leach (R) by 600 to 6000.  It hasn’t been called in Loebsack’s favor yet, but I’m feeling confidant that we can tag IA-02 on the big board soon.
1:39AM: No surprises here–Ed Perlmutter (D) has snatched up CO-07 from the Republicans.
1:35AM: Color TX-22 blue.
1:20AM: In IA-02, Dave Loebsack (D) is edging Jim Leach (R) by 600 votes, with 99% of precincts reporting.  If Loebsack pulls this off, this is second only to Carol Shea-Porter’s stunning upset in NH-01.
1:06AM: Another netroots victory–MN-01 has flipped to Democrat Tim Walz.
12:58AM: With 23% of precincts reporting, Grant (D) is edging Sali by 45-43.
12:43AM: Add NY-19 to the tally!  Wow!
12:36AM: Add WI-08 to the big board!
12:31AM: With 13% of precincts reporting, Larry Grant (D) is edging Bill Sali by a 46-33 margin!  Whoa!  Big time 3rd party vote in ID-01 by disgruntled conservatives.
12:25AM: Here’s something surprising: of all 3 Nebraska House races, the least touted one, NE-02 is the closest right now.  With 30% of precincts reporting, Jim Esch (D) is only down by a 49-51 margin against entrenched incumbent Lee Terry (R).  Go figure.
12:20AM: Wow.  I figured that FL-13 slipped through our fingers a few hours ago, but Jennings is only 400 votes behind.  It’s unclear (to me) how many ballots are left to be counted.  Nevermind.  This one’s been called for the Republicans.
12:15AM: With 97% reporting, John Hall (D) is leading by 51-49.  Wow.
12:08AM: In MN-01, Tim Walz (D) is leading by 6 points with 60% of precincts reporting.

There are 18 counties that have not reported all their results:
Arlington
Charlottesville
Fairfax
Fairfax city
Glouchester
Harrisonberg
Isle of Wight
Loudon
Martinsville
Newport News
Norfolk
Northumberland
Petersburg
Prince Edward
Prince William
Richmond City
Virginia Beach
Waynesboro

Those counties have reported results from 50%-99% of precincts giving us a reasonable basis on which to project the final vote in each country.  Based on this and the currently reported vote, the final tally would be:
Webb: 1,168,889
Allen: 1,154,361
Webb wins by 14,528 votes

Source: CNN county-by-county vote totals

12:01AM: IA-01 was just snapped up by Democrats.  Feel that blue wave.
11:56PM: Wow.  KS-02 just flipped to the Democrats.
11:51PM: Webb pulls ahead by 3,000 votes in VA-Sen! Looks like Dan called it right – so far.
11:47PM: Amazing.  In IA-02, Dave Loebsack (D) is 4 points ahead of Jim Leach (R) with 57% reporting.
11:32PM: The fun never ends: PA-04 and AZ-05 have flipped Democratic.
11:25PM: Wow… we actually did it.  Democrats have recaptured the House of Representatvies.  More pick-ups are on the way.  Take a minute and savor it, folks.
11:10PM: Add ’em up on the big board: FL-22, NH-01 (I can’t believe it), NY-24, and IN-09.
11:01PM: More pickups! NC-11, FL-16, CT-05, PA-10, AZ-08 and NY-20!
10:58PM: Gary Trauner is up by 51-45 with 51% reporting in WY-AL.
10:46PM: Oh yeah, and Joe Sestak (D) in PA-07 has been called, too.  As an aside, this is a bizarre election.
10:36PM: Zack Space (D) won in OH-18, and did what Francine Busby couldn’t do in June.  Atta boy!
10:24PM: I can’t believe it, but with 81% of the vote, Carol Shea-Porter (D) is edging Jeb Bradley by 900 votes! 
10:19PM: Paul Hodes wins! He’s about to make a speech. WOW! AWESOME!  Put NH-02 on the big board!
10:15PM: Boyda (D) could really do this thing.  With 47% of precincts reporting, she’s up by 54-44 over Ryun.
10:05PM: With 27% reporting, Altmire (D) has 57 and Hart (R) has 43 in PA-04.  This would be a stunning upset.
9:48PM: Keep your eye on KS-02, where Nancy Boyda (D) is leading Rep. Jim Ryun (R) by a 54-44 margin with 23% reporting.
9:29PM: CNN calls IN-02 for Joe Donnelly.  Nice!
9:23PM: CNN calls Yarmuth!  Alright!  Put KY-03 up on the big board!
9:10PM: With 96% in, John Warmuth (D) is up by 51-48 and 6500 votes over Ann Northup in KY-03.
9:05PM: With 46% reporting, Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) are neck and neck at 50-50 each, with a 500 vote edge for Shea-Porter.  No one thought this would be a close race.  Holy smokes.
8:47PM: CNN is calling NJ-Sen for Menendez, but last I saw they had Kean leading. Weird. MA-Gov and OH-Gov also called for Dems.

8:32PM: With 88% in, Yarmuth is holding Northup at 50-49, with a 3000 vote lead.  Keep your fingers crossed.  As I recall, NRCC chair Tom Reynolds said that if Northup lost, he was expecting a very unpleasant night nationwide.
8:24PM: With 9% in, Hodes leads 61-38.
8:17PM: Nice!  Our first catch of the night: IN-08 has been called by the AP in favor of Brad Ellsworth (D) who holds a 62-38 lead with 34% of the vote in.
8:11PM: Keep your eye on IN-07.  Democratic incumbent Julia Carson is not performing well in the early returns: 48-52 in her Republican challenger’s favor with 15% reporting.
8:04PM: With 81% of precincts reporting, Yarmuth (D) is edging Northup by a 50-49 margin and just over 3700 votes.
8:02PM: With 24% of precincts reporting, Webb (D) is edging Allen (R) by 50-49 in the VA-Sen race.
7:57PM: With 16% of precincts reporting, Tom Hayhurst (D) is trailing Rep. Mike Souder (R) by 48-52.  This is a district that delievered somewhere in the ballpark of 68% of its vote to Bush in 2004.
7:54PM: With 9% of precincts reporting, Mike Weaver (D) is edging Rep. Ron Lewis (R) by 51-49 and 500 votes in KY-02.
7:44PM: With 74% of precincts reporting, Yarmuth is up by 51-48 and 3500 votes over Northup.  Wow.  Keeping my fingers crossed here, because a win here would be a great sign of things to come.
7:42PM: With 16% of precincts reporting, the race in IN-09 is tight as ever: 48%-48% between Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) and Baron Hill (D), with Sodrel up by 7 votes.
7:23PM: With 64% of precincts reporting, CNN has Yarmuth back ahead of Northup by a slim 50-49 margin (just over 2500 votes).  An absolute nailbiter.
7:16PM: The AP has called it for Peter Welch (D) in VT-AL.  That was fast.  The GOP had hoped that they could pick one off here.  Tough breaks for them.
7:09PM: With 53% of precincts reporting, Northup is in the lead in KY-03 by a slim margin: 49.6% to 49.%
7:02PM: With 12% of precincts reporting, Brad Ellsworth (D) is edging Rep. John Hostettler (R) by a 70-30 margin in IN-08.  Obviously we’re seeing some heavily Democratic precincts reporting here.
6:58PM: With 37% of precincts reporting, Yarmuth is edging Northup by 51-48.  This would be a major, major upset for Democrats.
6:52PM: In addition to CNN.com (obviously), you can get results for KY-04 here and KY-02 results here.
6:49PM EST: KY-03 results available here.  With 14.9% of precincts reporting, Yarmuth has a 51.1%-47.7% lead over Northup!

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Polls have closed in Kentucky and some parts of Indiana, so we should be seeing some results begin to trickle in shortly.  Key races to watch in Kentucky: KY-02 and KY-03.  If John Yarmuth (D) can knock off Republican incumbent Ann Northup, and if State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) can come close to knocking off Rep. Ron Lewis (R), expect a big night.  If Weaver comes out on top, all bets are off.  The other big race in Kentucky is KY-04, where former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) is taking on Rep. Geoff Davis (R) in what is expected to be a close contest in a tight district.  I’m putting more emphasis on KY-03 and John Yarmuth’s performance as a bellwether race, though.

This post will be updated as events unfold.