Swing State Project

Have an update about state or local turnout?  Post it here.  Let’s get a sense of how many voters are turning out in key states.

• Connecticut: According to the New Times in Danbury, Connecticut’s Secretary of State is claiming that 70% of eligible voters will turn out this year, topping 2004’s Presidential-level turnout of 56%.  Wowza.  Is this the strength of Ned Lamont’s ground game at work and his outsider appeal energizing disinterested voters?  Or will Lieberman be able to make up the difference by his strength in traditional voting blocs?  We’ll see, but I suspect this one will be tighter than many of the polls have assumed.

• Virginia: Turnout may reach historic levels for a midterm election, perhaps with a turnout as high as 65%–which would be a figure double the size of 2002’s turnout.  Turnout looks high in both Fairfax county in Northern Virginia and in Southwestern Virigina, according to CNN.  On balance, I would say that this favors Webb, but it definitely still looks like a nailbiter at this point.

More updates as they come.

Well here we go.  It’s been two long years of waiting, but the day of reckoning is finally here.  Will the reportedly high turnout in places like Connecticut and the supposedly strong Democratic turnout in districts like WA-05 and VA-10 carry the day?  I’m not making any predictions; what would be the point of that when the first polls are closing in just a couple of hours?  But I’ll be here all night to watch the big show go down with you.  We’ll be throwing up open threads and updates on keey happenings all night. 

I hope you’ve voted, I hope your friends have voted, I hope your family has voted, I hope your mailman has voted, and I hope they all voted Democratic.  It wouldn’t hurt to double check with them right about now.

And here’s a neat feature that you can use tonight: CNN has set up a tracking tool that logs the results of up to 20 of your favorite races all night.  That will definitely come in handy!

Get to the polls, get out the vote, and hang on tight.  Let’s do this thing, people!

Oh yeah, and just in case you missed it, here is one of the more unfortunate photo shoots imaginable for Republican Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH):

Was it good for you?  Was it bad for you?  Were there long lines?  Short lines?  Frozen machines?  Hapless poll clerks?  Not enough ballots?  Or was everything just fine?

Do tell.  If you do have problems at the polls, the DNC has set up a voter protection hotline at 1-888-DEMVOTE.  There are other hotlines at 1-866-OUR VOTE for questions on how to vote and to report problems (the National Campaign for Fair Elections), as well as one set up exclusively for voting machine problems: 1-888-SAV-VOTE.  Don’t let anyone silence your voice today.

Oh, and if Jean Schmidt survives today, I hope she learns a lesson from this incident and becomes a champion of ballot integrity and secure elections.  Sadly, I’m not getting my hopes up:

I’m predicting a 5-6 seat Dem pick-up in the Senate with the Rhode Island seat being the Toss-up. I just have this nagging feeling that Chaffee will pull this out (although I hope not). I’ve included % guesses here for the Senate races, bypassed that for the Gubenatorial & California races. I’ve always relied on the Field Poll for California races but they’ve not issued anything new for the “down-the-ticket races so I’ll just go with a plain selection. Though I do not believe Arnie will win by double digits. The closet Statewide races should be Lt. Governor & Secty of State.

Competitive Senate Races

First Wave (+5 gain):
Pennsylvania – Casey 55- 45%
Ohio – Brown 54 – 46%
Virginia – Webb 52 – 48%
New Jersey – Menendez 53 –47%
Missouri – McCaskill 50.5 – 49.5%
Minnesota – Klobuchar 55% – 45%

Montana – Tester 52 – 48%
Maryland – Cardin 51.5 – 48.5%

Second Wave – 33% chance (4) (+1 gain*)

Arizona – Kyl-R 51.5- 48.5%
Connecticut – Lieberman-CFL 44.5 – 44 – 11.5%
Rhode Island – Chaffee-R 50.1 – 49.9% (*too close to call)
Tennessee – Corker-R 52.5 – 47.5%

Senate Gain = 5-6 seats.

Governor Races:

Maine – Baldacci-D
Alabama – Riley-R
Illinois – Blagojevich

Pennsylvania – Rendell-D
Connecticut – Rell
Alaska – Knowles-D
Hawaii – Lingle-R
Maryland – O’Malley-D
New York – Spitzer-D
NY AG – Cuomo – D
New Hampshire – Lynch-D
Iowa – Culver-D
Michigan – Granholm-D
Florida – Davis -D
Kansas – Sebelius-D
Massachusettes – Patrick-D
New Mexico – Richardson-D
Ohio – Strickland-D
Rhode Island – Carcieri-R
Arizona – Napolitano-D
Arkansas – Bebe-D
Georgia – Perdue-R
Colorado – Ritter-D
Minnesota – Hatch-D
Nebraska – Heineman-R
South Dakota – Rounds-R
Oklahoma – Henry-D
Oregon – Kulongski-D
South Carolina – Sanford-R
Tennessee – Bredensen-D
Texas – Perry-R
Vermont – Douglas-R
Wisconsin – Doyle-D
Wyoming – Fuedenthal-D
NY Senate switches to D
Kansas AG – Morrison-D
Ohio Statewide Offices – D Sweep
Governor Gain = 8-9

California State Races:
Dianne Feinstein – D (Chretien-G gets 10%)
Governor – Shwarzenegger-R
Lt. Governor – Garamendi-D
Secty of State – Bowen – D
Atty General – Brown – D
Treasurer – Lockyer-D
Controller – Chiang-D
Insurance Commish – Poizner-R
BOE #1 – Yee-D
St.Sen #8 – Yee-D
State Sen #10 – Corbett-D
Assembly #11 – DeSaulnier-D
Assembly #12 – Ma-D
Assembly #13 – Leno-D
SF prop.”J « Impeach Bush/Cheney – Yes 74.5%
SF Board Dist 4 – Chan-D
SF Board Dist 6 – Daly-D/G

We’re going to see a lot of discussion today about problems with voting machines, attempts at voter suppression and intimidation, poll worker confusion and mistakes, and so on.

Here at Common Cause, we’re getting these stories straight from the voters’ mouths.

That’s because we and a number of other organizations are running the 1-866-MYVOTE1 hotline again. We used this in the 2004 elections to show numerous problems with the presidential election that year: long lines, badly trained poll workers, malfunctioning equipment and uneven distribution of machines.

Voters can also call this number to find their polling place as well as to report election problems. Most of the calls we’ve received on this hotline have been for that purpose, although we’ve had significant numbers of calls from people reporting problems in voting.

We want to share these voter stories with all of you, so that you can get reports of problems almost literally as they happen. We’ll also keep you up-to-date on the steps being taken to correct these problems.

Throughout the day, I’ll be updating here with news on problems and the hot spots that are popping up around the country. Check back for the latest stories!

Here are two calls that we received from Wayne County, Michigan:

“Hi, Precinct 13 at Adler Elementary on Fillmore.  The machine that counts the ballots was not operating this morning just after opening.  I left at five minutes to eight; I was there at 7 am, and it was not counting the ballots, so we had to put it in and they assured us it would be hand-counted, but a lot of people were very upset.”

“Uh, the voting machines this morning won’t take the voting cards.  They keep saying error, and like seven or eight of us had to put our ballots to the side while they call in repairs or whatever.”

And we’re receiving reports that voters in Mercer County, PA, are being asked what party they’re affiliated with.  More on that as it comes in…

X-posted at dKos

The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.

—Robert Frost “Stopping By Woods On A Snowy Evening”

The sun has set here and polls will open before she rises again. There’s a big, fat full(ish) moon high above the Hudson Valley this evening and I’m exhausted. I decided that I needed to just sit down and just be still for a few minutes. When I stepped back from the chaos and the nerves and the coffee for a precious minutes, I was overwhelmed by a profound sense of gratitude to all those countless folks who, much like you and much like millions of other folks across the country you and I will never meet, are fighting like hell to take their country back.

I salute you.

I salute all those out there who spent the past few weeks knocking their knuckles raw, those who put their patriotism where their shoe leather meets the streets. I salute all those fine folks who literally walk the walk, who spent their weekends meeting their neighbors and engaging them in the process all up close and personal. I salute those who have overcome their shyness or reticence to talk to strangers. I salute those who travelled to new neighborhoods to walk, new towns, upstate, downstate or a new state entirely.

I salute you.

I salute those who cold called strangers to take their country back. I salute those who badgered their friends to join them in cramped offices to spread the word over the phone. I salute the pajamahadeen who called strangers across the country for candidates in other states. I salute “free nights and weekends”! I salute all those lovely people who with no time to spare who still found the time to reach out personally to folks who were sometimes on the other side of the continent.

I salute you.

I salute all those weary eyed staffers and volunteers who have decided to put your money where your goddamn mouth is, who decided to go “all in”, who chose to make damn sure that when their children and grandchildren ask them years from now what they did back in ’06 to take their country back that they had one hell of a story to tell. I salute those who have spent the past few weeks and months existing on cold pizza and stale coffee, who have grabbed those precious 15 minute power naps in the corner with one eye on that district map taped to the wall.  I salute all those who won’t sleep tonight as they are tweaking the final stages of their 96 hour plan, as they sift the lists of “ones” and “twos” who most need to be contacted tomorrow.I salute those disheveled hordes who have literally spent the night at the district office, the HQ, the union hall.

I salute you.

I salute all those who have taken those bleary eyed volunteers from far away into their homes, who have given them a bed, a meal and a shower. I salute all those amazing folks who have dropped by their candidate’s office with a plate of cookies or a bag of fruit or a box of sandwiches. I salute those who have called the office just to ask “What do you need?  What can i do right now” or “Are you guys hungry?”

I salute you.

I salute those who have given all those $25 contributions to the campaigns, often to campaigns in other districts or other states. I salute those who gave and gave and gave again. I salute those who found this struggle so damned important that they decided to sacrifice a dinner out or new pair of shoes or whatever to send that money to some candidate next door or on the other coast.

I salute you.

Finally, I want to salute all those who were told by the “wise” men/women that your desire to run was “doomed”, that dems can’t win here, that this district, this county, this state will never elect you. I salute all those who were told that they’d never be able to raise enough money or get enough support to be a “serious” contender, that they’d be a “vanity” candidate. I salute all those who listened politely as the Powers That Be told them that they’d be tilting at windmills and then decided, against all that “wise” counsel, to roll those sleeves up and throw all caution to the wind and, well,  run anyway, whether it was a run for the US Senate or for their local school board. I salute all those who listened to all the naysayers and found the situation in our nation to be too dire to sit this one out, who threw all caution to the wind and decided to brave the inevitable assault of the slime machine. I salute those who couldn’t stomach being a spectator to the continued violence wrought on our Constitution, the perpetuation of this continuing clusterfuck in Iraq, the shoveling of more and more to the few while asking more and more of the many, the looting of the Treasury from war profiteers and the cronies an determined that someone had to do something. I salute those who chose to take it upon themselves and against all the “friendly advice” offered by the knowitalls to put it all on the line and challenge that GOoPer incumbent on the town council, or Mr. Good-Hair-Been-There-Forever CongressCritter. I salute your courage and your patriotism and your sense duty.

My hat is off to everyone, top to bottom, who is engaged in this fight to reclaim for the American people what is rightly theirs, namely their own government.

I want to second what Al Rodgers said yesterday:

It’s a privilege to serve with all of you.

Hear hear.

I salute each and every last one of ya.

Now, let’s go out there and seal the freakin’ deal, kids. It’s time to take the country back.

You in?

Scott Lemieux of Tapped had the best Senate predictions of anyone today.

http://robwire.com/?…

  * Confident about Democratic chances: MD, NJ, RI
  * Tentatively think Dems will win: MO, MT
  * Tentatively think Dems will lose: VA
  * Dems Deader than The Santa Clause 3’s Oscar chances: TN

I just got word from the Lamont campaign that they are in need of help tomorrow in the 4th CD. That’s the part of Connecticut that’s closest to NYC and its suburbs – in fact, much of the district really is a suburb of New York itself. It’s very easy to reach by MetroNorth. So if you don’t already have election day plans – or you had a moment of inspiration and decided you’re gonna call in sick tomorrow – get in touch with the Lamont campaign here:

gmunger@gmail.com

-or-

(203) 854-5219

They’ll be answering the phones/checking e-mail all night.

Well, here goes. My method is going to be different than usual, instead of specific % predictions on every given race my method for both the House Predictions has a two tier (wave) system. First Wave races have a 75% chance of winning, Second Wave races have a 25% chance of winning. I have 37 First Wave races times 75% for a gain of 29 seats. Second Wave House 39 seats times 25% for a 9 seat gain, totalling a pick-up of 29-38 seats (incl VT-AL).  There’s more:

The listings are in descending order, those towards the top of the waves are most likely to win:

,

Competitive Congressional District Races ( in2 Waves)

First Wave-75% chance of winning (39) = +29 gain

Vermont – AL – Welch
Texas-22 – Lampson
Florida -16 – Mahoney
Ohio-18 Space
Iowa –01 – Braley
North Carolina – 11 – Shuler
Pennsylvania –10 – Carney
Pennsylvania – 07 – Sestak
Colorado – 07 – Perlmutter

New Mexico – 01 – Madrid
Arizona – 08 – Giffords
Wisconsin – 08 – Kagen
Indiana –02 – Donnelley
Indiana –08 –  Ellsworth
Florida – 22 – Klien
New Hampshire – 02 – Hodes
New York 24 – Arcuri
Kentucky –04 – Lucas
New York – 25 – Maffei
New York – 29 – Massa
Connecticut –04 – Farrell
New York – 20 – Gillibrand
Indiana – 09 – Hill
New York – 19 – Hall
Nebraska – 03 – Kleeb
Pennsylvania – 06 – Murphy

Pennsylvania –08-Murphy
Connecticut – 02 – Courtney
Connecticut – 05 – Murphy

Kentucky – 03 – Yarmuth

Idaho – 01 – Grant
Illinois – 06 – Duckworth
California – 11 – McNerney
Ohio –15 – Kilroy
Colorado –04 – Paccione
Wyoming – AL – Trauner
Virginia – 02 – Kellam
Florida – 13 – Jennings
Arizona -05 – Mitchell
Kansas – 02 – Boyda

,

Second Wave- 25% chance of winning (37) = +9 gain

New York – 26 – Davis

Arizona –01 Simon
Colorado –05 – Fawcett
North Carolina –08 Kissel
New Jersey – 07 – Stender
Washington – 08 – Burner
Ohio – 02 – Wulsin

Minnesota – 06 – Wetterling
Nevada – 02 – Derby
Minnesota – 01 – Walz
Pennsylvania – 08 – Murphy
Ohio – 01 – Cranley
Illinois – 10 – Seals
Virginia – 11 – Hurst
Nebraska –01 – Moul
Virginia – 10 – Feder
Kentucky – 02 – Weaver
New York –03 – Meijas
New York – 13 – Harrison
Florida – 08 – Stuart

California  – 04 – Brown
California – 50 – Busby
Washington – 05 – Goldmark
Kansas –04 – McGinn
Pennsylvania – 04 – Altmire
Ohio – 12 – Shamansky
West Virginia –02 Callaghan
Iowa – 02 Loebsack
New Hampshire – 01 – Shea-Porter
Virginia – 05 – Weed
Ilinois – 19 – Stover
New Jersey – 05 – Aronsohn
New Jersey –02 – Hughes
New Jersey –03 – Sexton
New Jersey –04 – Gay