Swing State Project

From an Omaha World-Herald article on Bush’s ass-saving intervention on behalf of the troubled candidacies of Adrian Smith (R-Club For Growth) and Pete Ricketts (R-Hell), Bush gives his recommendation to voters from Nebraska’s deeply Republican 3rd Congressional District:

“Now, it seems to me if you’re sending someone from this country to Washington, you better have someone who understands what it means to be a farmer and rancher.”

Sound advice for a district as rural and agriculture-based as Nebraska’s 3rd.  Um, one slight problem, though, Mr. President:

Sounds like someone should have done a little better job of briefing President Bush on the candidates in Nebraska’s Third District Congressional race. It’s quite simple:

Scott Kleeb (D) = Fourth generation Nebraskan; Rancher with a PhD who wrote his doctoral dissertation on the history of cattle ranching

Adrian Smith (R) = Real estate agent and failed politician who is “not known as a skilled lawmaker” and “not known as a leader”

Well, kudos to the President for his candor, I guess.  And good work by the Kleeb campaign to spin the Bush visit into a plus for their side.

While Nebraska’s 3rd district is deeply Republican, in two of the last three times that it has been an open seat, the Democratic candidate barely lost (by 737 votes in 1974 and just over 4300 votes in 1990).  Scott Kleeb has worked this district hard, and it’d be pretty hard to think of a more perfect fit for this district than him.  While I’m not expecting an upset tomorrow, I am, however, anticipating this race to be fairly close tomorrow night–certainly closer than retiring Rep. Tom Osborne’s 87-11 blowout in 2004, in any case…

Let’s not misunderestimate the problem here. GET OUT THE VOTE. Friends and family, acquaintances and strangers. Put Bush 2.0 back in the box and secure the American system, we have an important document to save from corruption. Awkward computer metaphor, but what the hell, it’s true. EVERYBODY VOTE.

  In case we’ve forgetten:
  I’ve heard the call. I believe God wants me
  to run for president.
  They want the federal government
  controlling Social Security like it’s some
  kind of federal program.
  Please don’t kill me! (in the voice of Karla
  Faye Tucker)
  I encourage employers to permit their
  workers time off during the lunch hour to
  attend the noontime services to pray for our
  land.
  We should fund the armies of compassion,
  we should not discriminate against faith-
  based programs.
  I believe God did create the world. And I
  think we’re finding out more and more and
  more as to how it actually happened.
  Like I said, the legislature’s job is to write
  the law, and it’s the executive branch’s job
  to interpret the law.
  This crusade, this war on terrorism is going
  to take a while.

Crossposted at Daily Kos

As you may know by now, the National Republican Campaign Committee is making a Hail Mary play by harrassing Democratic-leaning voters with automated calls structured with a misleading introduction that suggests that Democrats are responsible for the call.  The kicker is: if you hang up, the robocall firm then calls you back several more times with the same message, often at horrendous hours.  It’s classic slimeball Republican skullduggery: harrass the opposition’s voters to suppress the vote (or worse, flip it).  Unfortunately, the scheme has flown under the radar until the last few days (when Josh Marshall helped break the story), so it could be effective.  However, in many states, calls such as these are illegal, and DailyKos diarist G2geek has an excellent diary up on ways to fight back against the Republican Party.  New Hampshire’s Attorney General has already put a partial stop to the problem there.

The DCCC has a press release condemning the tactics here, including information on how the $600,000 worth of attack calls were allocated in the past week.

For some reason, when I say or type “dirty tricks”, I think of Gollum from Lord of the Rings saying, “tricksy little hobbits…”.  But anyway, I went to Talking Points Memo, and lo and behold, I see the first item is about New Mexico!

It linked to a TPM Muckraker story about the dirty tricks by the GOP.  The Associated Press reported on the story, and in the story, the GOP claimed it only happened once, to one voter.  But NM Democratic Party director Matt Farrauto says that’s just not true.

More on the dark side of the moon.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP and as a diary at Daily Kos

“I am standing in front of four people who had it happen to them, and there’s a fifth woman who contacted me this morning,” Farrauto told me. The group was standing in the courthouse lobby, he said, waiting to meet with a judge who could order the GOP’s calls to stop.

The Albuquerque Journal mentions the controversy in their Monday-before-Election-Day article.  Again, there is the claim by the Republicans it only happened to one person.

But Marta Kramer, executive director of the state Republican Party, said the accusation was bogus. She said a volunteer on the Republican phone bank inadvertently called a Democrat who had the same name as two other Republicans.

Right.  Those other four or five people who have come forward and actually realized this is unethical and misleading information?  They don’t exist.  Not to mention we don’t know how many Democrats don’t realize the information is wrong.

Joe Monahan notes that Republicans are getting misleading mailers; I think we can assume these are being sent to everyone.

[B]log photog Mark Bralley, a Republican, said he received a mailer from his party directing him to the wrong polling location.

So there are misleading mailers along with those misleading phone calls floating about.

To see Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Jeff Bingaman’s responses, see my earlier post.

There have been a couple of general ballot polls out in the past couple of days (namely, Pew and ABC/Washington Post) purporting to show a sudden “surge” of Republican momentum in the last few days of the election.  Hotline editor Chuck Todd does the digging and comes up with the 1994 general ballot polls from around this time:

A trip through The Hotline archives for the weekend before the ’94 election shows the generic ballot as follows:

ABC: — 47-46 in favor of the Dems (a 6-point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
Gallup: — 51-44 for the GOP (a 4 point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
NBC: — 46-35 for the GOP (a 2 point swing in the two weeks toward the Dems)
Times Mirror: — 48-43 for the GOP (a 7 point swing in the last month toward the Dems)

I’m not suggesting that this election won’t be close, but I definitely am suggesting that this “natural tightening” in election eve polls is something to keep in mind before anyone potentially loses their head or chews off their fingernails.

Just to let you know, Swing State Project plans to be buzzing and fully operational on election night tomorrow.  I’m booking off the whole evening to follow the returns here with you, and as I’m in the fabulous Mountain Time zone, I’ll likely be up a bit later than some of the East Coast bloggers.  We’ll be throwing up open threads all night with key updates on the latest developments across the country.  User diaries will also be fully functional as usual, and I hope you will take advantage of them–but do so at a reasonable volume (I’ll let your own discretion judge that for now).

For poll closing times and key races for all 50 states, please consult DavidNYC’s diary here.  It’s going to be a long night tomorrow.  (And hopefully a fun one.)

50-49 Senate plus Liberman who then switches parties to make it 51-49 red.

House: 237-198.  I think we pick up (in order of the state-by-state series)

CO-4,7 (and CO-6 before CO-5)
IN-2,8,9,stay-up-late-and-have-some-popcorn-for-3

NV-mmmmaybe2
NC-8, 11 (Touchdown!)
IA-1, mmmmaybe2
NM-1
WV-I-got-a-good-feeling-about-2
KS-I-got-a-better-feeling-about-2
CT-2,4,5
IL-6,10

ID-1-yeeeeha
WY-AL-yip-yip-yip-yeeeeha!
WI-8,mmmmmaybe5
KY-3,4,rooting-fer-2
MN-1-sorry-on-6-sorrier-about-2
WA-5,8
VA-2,10
NE-3,and-I-wouldn’t-say-no-to-1
FL-13,16,22
VT-AL
NH-2
AL-in-my-dreams-1-and-3
AZ-1,5,8
OH-1,6,15,18 (I think Meanjean hangs on)
PA-4,6,7,10
Pickups I didn’t get to:
NY-3,26,29
NJ-7
TX-22,23
CA-4,11,50,52

Biggest fumbled opportunity- MI-8

This is where I get to be wrong. I have found six Democratic Candidates who are running good campaigns in the right environments who are currently not listed on any list of competitive races in the country by any professional prognosticators. . So here is where I go out on a limb.  All of these candidates will get 40%, most will get 45% and one will win.  This is not to rule out the possibility of other strange upsets.  But theses six campaigns have a real shot at riding a wave.

Michigan 9th
This is one of the serious under covered race in a district where it should be treated with greater respect.  This is a district that gave George Bush a whopping and impressive 51% of the vote in 2004.  While the Democrats didn’t get the most impressive nominee in Nancy Skinner, they did get a feisty one.  The finance report tells a good story. Incumbent Congressman Joe Knollenberg has spent more money, almost 2.5 million dollars, more then he has raised this cycle. He also faced a primary from a pro-choice Republican Women who got 30% against him. Now it is true that Michigan has open voting but this is still a sign.  Nancy Skinner is a progressive talk radio host, so she can deal with press. I also believe that in the end both Michigan Gov and Senate will break for us by about giving Nancy a chance at coattails, she has raised a respectable if not impressive 330,000 dollars.  Her website is  http://nancyskinner….
Check her out.

Minnesota 2nd
I just refuse to give up on Coleen Rowley. She was named Time Woman of the Year. Her campaign has been considered Lackluster, but Coleen has slowly clawed her way back into this race. We will benefit from a massive victory in the Senate Race and also hopefully the Governor’s race.  Her opponent Incumbent John Kline is also not loved.  He only ran slight ahead of The President in his district and only got 57% not terrible but also not wonderful. The only polling out is Survey USA that shows Coleen in striking distance 50-42. She has a real shot. Go Coleen.
On web http://www.coleenrow…

Ohio 3rd
  This is quite possibly the least covered house race that has any money be spent at all. Before I get to the specifics of the race let me be clear the key thing that this race has going for it is Ohio. The Republican in Ohio seem to be collapsing at an astonishing rate. This means that upsets just become more likely across the board. I point therefore to Ohio’s 3rd district. This is a surprise district because the Democratic Candidate was forced to drop in late August. What is surprising is that this caused the Democrats to have an improved candidate overall.  Dick Chema is such a candidate. He was a prosecutor before he decided to run for Congress and has put together both acceptable amounts of money and strong support from the politicians in the district. This district only gave George Bush 54%. It is clearly a long shot a Mike Turner has no real fireable except being a Republican, in Ohio that might just be enough.  It is clearly possible. On  the web
http://www.chemaforc…

Montana At Large
The Montana miracle  will be tested in this race. Jon Tester has run an awesome campaign and that will hopefully benefit Democratic Nominee Monica Lindeen. She has a run a good if under covered campaign. Remember that even while Schweitzer was winning by a relatively small amount we won almost all Statewide offices and the Legislature. I think it will be closer with a real chance Monica pulls it off. Again the incumbent Dennis Rehberg hasn’t  real made any fatal mistakes. The question is while tossing out Burns will they also toss Rehberg. There is reason for hope.
On Web http://www.lindeen.n…

NJ 5
If there is a greater example of Congressman who is just out step with the view of his constituents, it  is Scott Garrett. He was of the most Conservative Members in the House Voting against Katrina Aid and  Renewing the Voting  Rights act. The district did go 57% for George Bush but they just aren’t this Conservative. Paul Aronsohn  is a good candidate who has raised a decent amount of money with a decent bio and has been working hard.  He also has a lot of Clinton Alumni helping him. This one could be the biggest surprise if the district would just figure out how Conservative Garrett really is.
http://www.paularons…

IL 11
John Pavich was highly touted and then he went away, we will see if he comes back on election night.  It is only a 53%  Bush district and Illinios has trended very Democratic.  Pavich has also picked up a few newspapers and the Chicago Tribune stayed Neutral.  Incumbent Jerry Weller is likely to hold. But John Pavich has kept it close and I like it is an upset.
On Web http://www.pavichfor…

There you have it. Six races no one has on their list that just might flip. I stand by the prediction. Everyone gets 40 most get 45 and  one will win.  I am either a prophet or a moron we found out in about 40 hours.

While Bush may have come to Greeley, CO to try to save the seat of Marilyn Musgrave on Saturday, the candidates here in Colorado who can speak before a crowd without the need of a script rallied today, Sunday, in this battleground city of the 4th CD.

Senator Ken Salazar, Gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter and Democratic congressional challenger Angie Paccione took the stage before about 500 enthusiatic citizens to explain why this is such an important election.  When Angie took the microphone to cheers of “Angie!  Angie!  Angie!”  She presented the simple, obvious reasons why the Democrats must take back Congress and why Musgrave must go.

More after the jump.

If you have ever seen Angie speak, you would know how she draws upon the energy of the crowd — and this crowd was electric.  Angie doesn’t need a script to explain why it is so important for the Democrats to be in the majority — to raise the minimum wage, to implement the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission, to vote to override Bush’s veto of stem-cell research, to get rid of the corrupt politicans who are doing the bidding of special interests.

But Angie was most eloquent when she reminded the audience of Eisenhower’s statement that “America is great because America is good” — telling the audience that when the Democrats return to the majority in Congress, they will “make America great again because they will make sure America is good again.”

After the event, some reporters gathered around Angie to ask her questions — about the last 2 days of campaigning and what she thought would happen.  Using the analogy from her basketball playing days, she said that the campaign was peaking at the right time as the polls showed the race now basically a toss-up.

When asked “What do you think of Bush and Cheney coming to this state to rally for the Republicans?”  Angie replied, “Well, their numbers are in the tank — and if the Republicans in this state want to attach themselves to them, then their numbers will be in the tank too.”

As she explained: “There has been a massive failure of leadership both in Congress and his Administration.  People are looking for change.  I say if you want to change the Congress, you have to change the people you send to Congress.  And that’s why I am asking voters tio send me — because I’ll be that change.”

Whatever happens on Tuesday, nobody can question that Angie is going into the election fighting for every vote.

Cross-posted from MN Campaign Report

We finally have poll results in CD5. SurveyUSA’s poll for KSTP is complete, and will be broadcast on tonight’s 10 PM news. The results, according to a solid source…

Keith Ellison (DFL): 49
Alan Fine (GOP): 25
Tammy Lee (IP): 22
Jay Pond (GP): 2

The fight in this race does indeed appear to be for second place. With the entire DFL GOTV operation pushing base votes across the district, Ellison should have no problem cleaning up and becoming the first Muslim Congressman in American history. A third-place finish for Fine, on the other hand, would present a significant problem for the CD5 Republican organization.

For SSP readers unfamiliar with the Minnesota scene, it’s worth noting that if elected, Keith Ellison will be the first Muslim Congressman in history.