Swing State Project

This is the first in what will hopefully be a series of diaries examining the results of the Democratic victory in the 2006 midterm election.  Particular attention will be given to the margin of victory to locate GOP targets and Democratic defends for 2008.

Today we will be looking at the Democratic takeover of New England

2004

2006

More after the flip.

Perhaps more striking than Democrats taking 6 House seats from Republican incubments in New England is just how close (6645 votes) Democrats came to a shutout taking the CT-04 from moderate Republican Christ Shays.  In Massachusetts Republicans didn’t even bother to run candidate in 6 of 10 House races, and elsewhere relatively few races were close.  Below I have created a shaded map to indicate vote margin, both Red and Blue are divided into 3 shades.  The lightest shade of red or blue indicates that the races was decided by less than 5%, the medium shade is less than 10%, and the darkest shade indicates the victory was over 10%.

Looking through races contested in both 2004 and 2006 (and excluding VT-AL due it being held by Independent Bernie Sanders in 2004) a clearer picture of the wave that swept Democrats into seats previously held by Republicans can be seen.

The single largest vote gain (in % terms) by a Democrat between 2004 and 2006 was in the CT-05 where the Democratic vote share surged 34% from 38.2% in 2004 to 56.2% in 2006.  In the CT-02 the Democratic candidate still hold a narrow lead, however the race has not yet been called.  In the CT-04, Chris Shays had a near (career) death experience, winning his race by a mere 3.2%.  As the lone remaining Republican in New England he should be a target for Democratic defection, with active efforts to woo him.  And if he won’t make the change, then he needs to end up like Lincoln Chaffee.

In New Hampshire Democratic candidate eked out narrow victories.  In the NH-01, the margin of victory was 3.1%  a 29.9% gain over the 36.6% showing of the Democratic candidate in 2004.  In the NH-02, Paul Hodes’s margin of victory was 6.1%, a 26.2% improvement over that 2004 showing at 38.2% for the Democratic candidate.

Looking forward to 2008, the CT-04, the sole remaining Republican seat in New England should be a pickup target if Shays doesn’t have the sense to do what’s right.  Democratic victories in the CT-05, NH-01, NH-02, and VT-AL will have to be defended because they all are likely Republican pickup targets with 2006 victory margins under 10 points.  Once the status of the CT-02 has been resolved we’ll know whether this is a seat that we will need to defend or a pickup opportunity.

For all the talk of a Solid South with Republicans dominating, nothing comes close to the level of victory that Democrats have achieved in New England.  New England Republicans at the federal level are on the brink of extinction, if Democratic candidates who took Republican seats concentrate on constituent service to build up an incumbency advantage we will be able to speak of a total realignment in New England.

That’s it for New England.  My next diary will focus on New York.   The ETA for that should be sometime next week.

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

There are no breaks here at the Swing State Project! One election cycle ends and another begins. I don’t just mean that in a technical sense, either. Several candidates who had little or no prior political experience were able to compensate for that in part by getting a very early start. Paul Hodes, Patrick Murphy and Eric Massa would be some good examples.

Now, I doubt that many people apart from presidential hopefuls) are going to be announcing any runs for office this quickly, but it’s still fun to think about. Here are some topics worth considering:

• Which Senate seats should be our top priority in 2008, both on offense and defense?

• Which members of the House might retire at the end of their terms? How about during their terms (being in the minority sucks), prompting special elections? Who is ready to run in the event of a retirement? This is something to keep a close eye on all next year.

• Who are our most vulnerable new Reps going to be? What, if anything, can we do to help protect them apart from the obvious – ie, giving them tons of scrilla?

Plenty of food for thought!

[Cross-posted at Daily Kos, MyDD, Swing State Project, and My Left Wing.]

“You win some.  You lose some.  And then there’s that little known third category.”  – Al Gore –

In 2006, there were nineteen netroots candidates.  Seven of them were elected.  Eight of them lost.  Three (Darcy Burner, Larry Kissell, Gary Trauner) are still locked in tight counts or recounts.  Not a bad record for a list that in 2004 went 0-for-15.

But what we’re liable to forget is that one of our candidates is still out there facing not just a recount, but an actual election — and one in which he has a fighting chance of winning.  With all the euphoria about our smashing victory on November 7th, we should not neglect one of our own in his electoral battle just because the race isn’t essential to our control of Congress.  If we are to be a viable political movement, we need to practice loyalty to our candidates, no matter what the circumstances of their run.

I’m talking, of course, about former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez.

As you may recall, when we last saw Ciro, he had just lost a contentious and hard-fought primary against DINO Congressman Henry Cuellar.  For most candidates, defeat in a primary spells the end of their candidacies for at least one election cycle.  But Ciro was given a chance to rise like a phoenix from the ashes because of a quirk in the Texas districting process.

In August, a federal judge struck down part of Tom DeLay’s Texas redistricting plan, arguing that it disadvantaged Hispanics.  The redrawn district map removed Ciro from Cuellar’s district and placed him in a district held by a Republican, Henry Bonilla.  Bonilla’s district, accordingly, was changed from a Republican area into a truly swing district.  Finally, a special election was set for the district: anyone who filed could run on November 7th, but if one candidate failed to win fifty percent outright, the top two candidates would move on to a runoff in December.

Ciro, along with six other candidates, signed up to challenge Bonilla in the new district.  He made some mistakes coming out of the gate, including dropping out and then dropping back in.  After this misstep, most commentators painted the race as finished: Bonilla would stroll to an outright majority on November 7.

But all by himself, with no help from either the national party or the netroots, Ciro managed to hold Bonilla below the magic 50% mark.  The final results (from CNN:

Bonilla (R): 48%
Rodriguez (D): 20%
Uresti (D): 12%
Gilliland (D): 11%
Stephens (I): 3%
Beltran (D): 2%
Bolanos (D): 2%
DeLeon (D): 2%

For the uninitiated, Gilliand, a wealthy Democrat, was supposed to be Ciro’s main competition for the second spot; his anemic totals are a testament to Ciro’s strength in the new district.

In addition to these encouraging numbers, knocking off Bonilla would be an important step in bringing Texas back into the Democratic fold.  BBonilla fashions himself the next Senator from Texas and is backed by heavyweights such as Phil Gramm and former Congressman Tom Loeffler.  Beating such a rising star in Texas Republican politics would serve notice that Democrats are not giving up in Texas any time soon.

I could go on and on, but I’ll let Ciro speak for himself:

Dear Fellow Texans,

Good Afternoon!

I thank the citizens of the 23rd District for their votes and confidence in me. I ask all Democrats and voters of the 23rd to join us to win this December run-offelection, and make history.

It would be my honor and privilege to represent you as Congressman for the 23rd Congressional District of Texas. I humbly ask for your support and vote.

As election day is here, I want to ask you to vote and your families vote. I ask you to help get everyone you know to go vote for Ciro D. Rodriguez for Congress. Your support in what is no doubt one of the most critical races of 2006 is important and it can make a difference.

This congressional district stretches from South San Antonio in Bexar County, west to the eastern edge of El Paso County and south along the U.S./Mexico border from El Paso to Eagle Pass. It is home to Big Bend National Park our most pristine wilderness area. It is urban and rural. Its diversity is what makes it beautiful. I feel confident that I have the experience, shared values and background to represent you.

I believe this race matters to you. For 14 years, this district has been represented by an incumbent whose ties to special interests are much stronger than his ties to this district. As a congressman, Henry Bonilla has voted to cut federal college student aid by $12.7 billion, voted to erode worker’s rights and overtime protection. He voted in favor of national budgets resulting in a debt of almost 9 trillion dollars. Gasoline prices are through the roof, but, Bonilla’s friends in the oil industry rake in record profits. However, Bonilla continues to vote to give the energy companies subsidies and tax breaks. He continues to support a war in Iraq with no exit strategy.

Our call to action is the same one that echoes throughout this country: Let’s turn this country around…Enough is enough—let’s bring back America.

As I have visited the counties and cities in the district, my belief that this office belongs to you, the people and not special interests has been strengthened. I have served in Congress for four terms and as past chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. I’ve worked to ensure the delivery of clean safe water to border communities. I have worked and will continue to fight for affordable health care and real prescription drug coverage at lower costs. With your support, I will continue to speak out for more monies to fund student loans and decreasing their interest rates because our future rests with our young people.

As a member of the Armed Services Committee, I voted against the authorization for the war in Iraq. However, I will continue the fight for all our veterans to get the services they and their families need.

With your help, we can seize this opportunity to unseat this out of touch republican incumbent. Together, we can change the balance of power in a congress that is taking America in the wrong direction. I believe we are at an important crossroads for our country. The battle for the control of congress is a battle for the direction of this country. Times like these call for a change in congress.

Individual supporters such as you—and not special interests—will allow me to join my Democratic colleagues. Please consider sending a contribution of $25.00, $50.00, $100.00, or $250.00 today. Federal law allows contributions to this special election of up to $2100.00 per individual. Make checks payable to: Ciro D. Rodriguez for Congress. Please send your generous contribution to: PO Box 14528, San Antonio, TX 78214 or online at www.cirodrodriguez.com. Your personal contribution is critical. Together, we can win this seat and bring America back to the people.

Sincerely,

Ciro Rodriguez

How can you help?  Sign up to volunteer for or get e-mails from Ciro.  Donate to his campaign.  And most importantly, don’t let up the pressure.  We should and we CAN win this seat.  Whether we do or not is entirely up to us.

Florida largely missed the boat on the Democratic wave that overwhelmed America Tuesday.  Sure, Dems gained 3 seats in Congress, 7 in the legislature and one in the cabinet, but that limited success is behind what much of the rest of the country experienced.  Why?  Because the Florida Progressive Coalition isn’t fully functional yet.  There is no progressive infrastructure in the state.  There is no progressive communication in the state.  There is no progressive fundraising base in the state.  There are few progressive bloggers actually blogging about Florida and our media doesn’t get the job done.  That’s why we need your help.  We’re trying to change things in Florida.  Florida has the 2nd most conservative policy in the country (after South Dakota), most of our elected officials are Republicans — many of them total whackjobs.  And we just ironically passed a law by 58% that requires 60% of the population to pass further laws.  Something is wrong in the Sunshine State.  We think we have a plan to fix it.  Join us.  Check out our blog.  Check out our Wiki.  Check out our mission.  And then join us.  Florida is a blue state, it just doesn’t know it yet.  Leave a comment or e-mail me at quinnelk@hotmail.com.

I’m off to get some badly-needed studying in for the evening.  Please feel free to use this space to discuss the ballot counts and re-counts in tight races: CT-02, FL-13, OH-02, OH-15, NC-08, GA-12, NM-01, WY-AL, and WA-08.  With a million things going on this week, I haven’t been able to find out why the ballot count is going so slowly in WA-08.  Can anyone tell me?

And an NC-08 note: from what I’ve been told, there are 1492 provisional ballots left to be counted.  Kissell is down by 450 votes right now.  By my math, Larry’s going to have to win 2/3rds of those provisionals to squeak this one out.  I’m making an assumption here that provisionals tend to lean Democratic because they’re probably cast by people with ID problems or those who move around a lot (younger, more mobile voters).  But I can’t guarantee that that’s the case here.  For what it’s worth, Larry Kissell issued a statement this morning saying that he was confidant that he would win once these outstanding ballots were counted.

You can also discuss anything else election ’06-related here.

Well, hello there SSP! I just wanted to get a first diary up…I don’t have a ton to say, so I’ll just getout some quick bullet points (or just a list w/o bullet points, if i cant figure out the autoformatting).

1. Yay we won the house!!!!

2. AND THE SENATE!!!!!!!!!

3. I worked on the Jim Esch for Congress Campaign. We lost by 10 points, which was the closest margin for any DEM in NE in 12 years. We ran against a 4-term incumbent, and since we took NO PAC money ,we ran at a 3:1 money disadvantage. He will win in 2008, I am certain.

4. Rumor has it Russ is considering running for pres….I have wanted to work for him for a long time, starting when he lost 99-1 on that vote in October of ’01. Maybe I’ll send a resume and a cover letter…

Anyway, that is pretty much everything on my mind right now. I am getting on a plane in 15 hours, to take 11 days of well-earned vacation, and celebrate my birthday.

I love DKos, and hopefully this site (which seems to me to be like DKos, but for mostly elections only, not just politics in general) should be lots of fun. Plus, I have a sweet, extra low ID number, so maybe I will be famous here one day.  🙂

(Tim is already thinking ahead. Just like all of us ought to be. – promoted by DavidNYC)

Why not start looking ahead to 2008?

Most observers had long assumed the 2006-2008 Congress would be the end of thirty-four year incumbent Ralph Regula’s (OH-16) career in office.  After getting passed over in his bid for Appropriations Chair, rumors swirled the aging (soon to be ex) Cardinal’s final goal was to bequeath his seat to his son, Richard Regula.

Richard, however, was up for re-election as Stark County Commissioner and if the congressman retired and Richard lost … well, Richard would be out of a job.

So the template was supposedly set:

Ralph would get re-elected
Richard would get re-elected
Richard would run for his father’s office and if he lost, would continue serving as County Commissioner.

The first piece of the puzzle happened.  For the third time out of four cycles, Ralph’s opponent failed to raise the $5,000 minimum to disclose financially with the FEC and he was unsurprisingly re-elected by a comfortable margin (59-41).

Richard, however, was not so lucky.  He was dealt an upset defeat by Todd Bosley (of Bosley Bobblehead fame) in an extremely competitive election that, despite hope, shocked many right up until the final, unofficial, margin was announced (50.5% to 49.5%).

If the script played out, many a Democrat and Republican were lining up behind the scenes hoping to take a stab at the open seat in a district that went for President Bush with 54.1% of the vote.

Republican State Senator Kirk Schuring survived his re-election bid by a 56-44 margin.  Moderate Republican Scott Oelslager proved his popularity with another drubbing of a Democratic sacrificial lamb 64% to 36%.  These were the two competitiors Richard Regula was likely to square off against in a primary.

On the Democratic side, Stark County Democratic Chair and Dem. County Chair of the Year, Johnnie Maier has waited patiently for the seat to open up.  Extremely popular State Representative Jamey Healy laid waste to his Republican challenger with 75 percent of the vote. 

Before the first ballot was cast on November 7, potential candidates jockeyed for position. There was some speculation that Ralph would retire mid-term, hoping a shortened campaign would give his son an added boost based on name recognition and his unique ability among the field to raise tons of cash on short notice. 

But now Richard lost, and it’s a whole new ball game. 

So what happens next?

It’s unclear how things will shake out.  The conventional wisdom is that Ralph might just hold onto his seat until re-districting comes along and then hang it up.  One thing is clear, however: This is one district Democrats need to field a strong candidate in for presidential purposes.  Stark County, the 16th’s largest, has long been considered a bellwether for the state’s electoral college votes.  In 2004, Jeff Seemann had a bit of money, but little ground game to help push John Kerry along in ignored parts of the district like Ashland and Wayne Counties.

With Democrats making tremendous progress in the state, others think the aging Regula doesn’t have a tough campaign in him and will fold if pushed  In fact, back in the middle of 2005 the DCCC was running polls in the district and talking with candidates about potentially taking on Ralph himself.  Finally, if the fifty-state strategy has taught us anything, we need to run candidate everywhere.

I love this district, it’s so compelling to me and will one day be a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Democrats.  One way or another, it also might be one of our best shots to increase the majority in the next cycle when most pundits will place a premium on defense of the seats we gained on Tuesday.

Today is a great day. Democrats have regained majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate for the first time since losing control in 1994. However, we would be remiss if we did not analyze everything about this election, both what went right and what went wrong. So, stealing a methodology that has been done over, over and over again, here is my list.

THE GOOD – I am really bummed that some of our best and most exciting candidates lost. Tammy Duckworth, Larry Grant, Scott Kleeb and Gary Trauner would have been terrific members of congress. However, even their losses demonstrated how great Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy was. These races were in Henry Hyde’s district in Illinois, Idaho, Nebraska and Wyoming. Not exactly Democratic strongholds. Yet we lost these seats by a TOTAL of 36,579 votes. An amazing result in its own right.

Since the Good, the Bad and the Ugly is a movie theme, I will continue along those lines. The key phrase from the great baseball film “Field of Dreams” is a great way to describe Dean’s 50-state strategy. “If you build it, they will come.” First of all, if you put credible candidates on the ballot, people will come out and vote for them. Some of them will win, and some of them will lose, but you won’t know unless you get the candidates. We could have easily given up on Hyde’s district but we didn’t. We found a terrific candidate whose integrity and ideas simply forced people to vote for her. She created Democratic voters where there hadn’t been any before.

By finding these candidates you also force the Republicans to spend money. If you build the Democratic Party everywhere, the Republicans will be forced to come and spend their money to protect their position. Every dollar spent in Idaho, Nebraska and Wyoming is a dollar not spent in New Jersey, Missouri, and Florida. The viability of the candidacies of Duckworth, grant, Kleeb, and Trauner forced the Republicans to spend money in Red districts making it easier for Joe Courtney and Chris Murphy to win their blue districts.

THE BAD – I hate to focus on the negative on what is such a great day. However, if we ignore these things we will be worse of for it. Chris Shays is still a Member of Congress. Heather Wilson is still a Member of Congress. Jim Gerlach is still a member of Congress. These are blue seats that we absolutely had to win. There is no reason with the national climate that these three were able to hang on.

It probably shouldn’t, but it worries me that so many of our victories came from 2nd, 3rd, and no-tier races. I am ecstatic that wife-beating John Sweeney was shown the door, but how hard are we going to have to fight to keep NY-20 in the blue column. Florida 16 sent Mark Foley a message, but is Tim Mahoney going to be anything more than a 2 year Congressman? In perhaps the most favorable atmosphere a political party could hope for, we lost more close races than we won. John Doolittle, Marilyn Musgrave, and Jon Porter are all still in Congress. If the Democratic message isn’t resonating with these constituencies in the current atmosphere, we need to take a long hard look at why. We would be remiss if we celebrated the victories of John Hall, Jerry McNerny, Jason Altmire, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter without analyzing the failings of Diane Farrel, Patricia Madrid, Lois Murphy, Charlie Brown, Angie Paccione, and Tessa Hafen.

THE UGLY – I try to stay as naive as possible and pretend that elections really are about contrasting ideas. When I was working on “The Hill” I really thought that for the most part people on both sides of the Aisle were doing their civic duty. They really believed in the message they were trying to sell to the American people. But this election has disillusioned me of that notion, perhaps for good.

Robo-calls and election shenanigans demonstrate that politics is not about having a conversation with the electorate. It’s not about laying out contrasting visions for America’s future. Politics has become such a win at all costs endeavor that where the message was not resonating with the voters the solution became suppressing the vote. The American people deserve better. If, as the media and the Republicans claimed, the Democrats had no message, than there was no reason for the Republicans to resort to dirty tricks. But it turned out to be the Republicans whose message the people rejected. And as poll after poll suggested this, the Republicans turned their attention away from holding a political discourse to intimidating and lying to voters. They Republicans lost, they lost ugly, and I just hope they didn’t drag down the notion of a national political discourse with them.

POSTSCRIPT – No movie themed post would be complete without the promise of a sequel, and that is what we need to work for. We need a sequel that is even better than the original, which movie fans know is rare. We need a sequel where we fix the problems with our message and/or operation that caused us to lose winnable seats in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and all over the country. We need a sequel that finds more and better candidates than we ran in 2o06. We need a sequel that talks to the American people in such a way that they demand a trilogy.

So go and out and celebrate tonight. We deserve to revel in our success. But we have the responsibility to govern now, and we have the responsibility to do the people’s work so that they keep demanding another sequel.

Cross-posted at Future Majority.

I’ve had time to sift through what data is available from Young Voter Strategies and CIRCLE.  The bottom line is this – youth turnout increased for the third straight year, and millenials chose Democrats over Republicans by 22 percentage points (60%-38%) – more than double any other age demographic.

Democratic Preference by Age Demographic

In Montana, where Jon Tester beat out Conrad Burns, I’m hearing that young voters made up 17% of the electorate and that their swing towards Democrats may have been the deciding factor in Tester’s election.

If this is a wave election, that wave is being fueled by young voters and their growing allegiance to progressive politics.  

Here’s what we know so far based on exit polls, preliminary precinct reporting, and census data from March 2006:

(Some of this information I received via email and conference call from people at CIRCLE and YVS, and isn’t yet available online.  So sorry if this is a little light on links.  In the coming days I will post more updates as new data becomes available.)

TURNOUT

• At least 10 million 18-29 year olds voted yesterday(pdf). This is 2 million more than voted in 2002, and 1.4 million  more than 1994.  As more data comes in, this number is expected to rise.
• Our turnout rate was 24%.  This is an increase of 4% from 2002(pdf).  As more data comes in, this number, too, may rise.  
• Our share of the electorate increased from 11% to 13% (pdf).  Millenials are increasing their turnout rate faster than any other demographic, and rising turnout across the board in 2006 makes this number all the more impressive.

Most importantly:

• In 36 “youth dense precincts” in Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin – which were targeted by the student PIRGS – turnout was 6x the national average.

Conclusion: Young voters are increasingly engaged and are becoming a force in electoral politics.  If you ask us to vote we will, and our growing numbers could be the difference in elections across the country.  If this trend continues, young voters may hand us the presidency in 2008.  

PARTISANSHIP

• Young voters chose democrats over republicans by 22% points (60% to 38%).  This is more than double every other demographic.
• A pre-election poll indicates that young voters were highly dissatisfied with Bush, but they generally had more positive feelings about their conrgressperson.

Conclusion: Young voters are a huge asset for progressives, but, just like in 2004 when we cast our ballots against Bush (but not for Kerry), this was a vote for change.  A vote against Bush, not for the Democrats.

TACTICS
In 2004, youth groups sent a drum beat of messages to the media – peer to peer, face to face contact was the way to reach young voters.  That strategy has come to fruition this year.

• When CIRCLE reports on the effectiveness of GOTV tactics, it will report that boots on the ground, face to face contact was the most effective way to reach youth in 2004.
• Social Networking and Text Messaging – the media darlings of this cycle – will be shown to have played only a small part in getting out the vote.  

Conclusion:  It takes a cycle or two for folks to learn how to use new strategies.  What limited data we get on text messaging and social networking will get put to good use tweaking our strategies.  Look for these tools to either live up to the hype or die in 2008.

SUMMARY
Research shows that if you can get a young person to vote for your party 3 major elections in a row – you’ll have 75% of those voters for life.  Right now we’ve seen two elections where Millenials are turning out and making significant contributions to the progressive movement.   We’re turning out in bigger and bigger numbers, and as more of us turn 18, we’re becoming a larger share of the electorate.  

If you ask us to participate we will.  Now its up to the democratic party, and all the instruments of progressive politics, to reach out to our generation and help bring as many of us into the movement as possible.  This means more money put into young voter programs, more training, more internships – genuine investments in building the infrastructure to engage and train Millenial voters.  

This is the future progressive majority  in action, let’s secure it for generations to come.

It seems that the elections never end on election day anymore. There are several recounts afoot and a run-off in Texas. There’s also a run-off in Louisiana, where Democratic state Rep. Karen Carter will face off against corrupt U.S. Rep. William Jefferson in LA-02.

This race matters because we need to send a strong message, a message that the Democratic Party won’t tolerate corruption on either side of the aisle. Come January, we’re finally going to take back the House. But before we do, we need to clean house first. And that’s why the Swing State Project, DailyKos and MyDD are officially endorsing Karen Carter in her runoff on Dec. 9th.

Now, if you haven’t already heard Bill Jefferson’s tale, well, it’s a sordid one (PDF). The Department of Justice has accused Jefferson of taking hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes, and he is currently the target of an ongoing FBI investigation. One former aide has already plead guilty to conspiracy to bribe a public official – he’s now serving eight years in prison. Another associate – a businessman who gave Jefferson $400,000 in a pay-for-play scheme – is also going to jail following a guilty plea. The kicker: Both men named Jefferson in their plea agreements.

But Jefferson’s most notorious act – the one you probably heard about – is this:

Rep. William J. Jefferson (D-La.), the target of a 14-month public corruption probe, was videotaped accepting $100,000 in $100 bills from a Northern Virginia investor who was wearing an FBI wire, according to a search warrant affidavit released yesterday.

A few days later, on Aug. 3, 2005, FBI agents raided Jefferson’s home in Northeast Washington and found $90,000 of the cash in the freezer, in $10,000 increments wrapped in aluminum foil and stuffed inside frozen-food containers, the document said.

Jefferson’s behavior was so outrageous that the Democratic caucus, in an extremely rare move, stripped him of his committee assignment. And as one New Orleans native put it, “You find $100,000 in your freezer, I ain’t voting for you.” Seventy percent of the voters in Louisiana’s second Congressional district apparently agree, because Jefferson carried just 30% of the vote yesterday.

Fortunately for us, Louisiana’s unusual electoral system mandates a run-off between the top two finishers whenever the winner fails to reach 50%. That means we can give Jefferson the boot he so richly deserves by supporting the second-place finisher, Karen Carter.

Carter is a strong candidate – she took 22% in a crowded field, despite getting a very late start and facing a long-time, well-known incumbent who outraised her by more than two-to-one. One sign of her strength is that in a surprise move before the election, the Louisiana Democratic Party endorsed her over Jefferson, marking the first time in memory that the state party failed to endorse an incumbent.

But Carter will still need a lot of help to beat an entrenched incumbent, however corrupt, like Jefferson. To that end, we plan to highlight this race over the course of the next month. We’ve created a new ActBlue page that we’re calling Blue Majority. The goal of this new page is to support and strengthen our new Democratic majorities. And right now, we can start by replacing Bill Jefferson with Karen Carter. Of course, if you live in the district or a nearby area, we strongly encourage you to volunteer for Karen. She’ll need every able hand she can get.

So let’s finish out this already-awesome election season on a true high note and let’s send that message!