This is the first in what will hopefully be a series of diaries examining the results of the Democratic victory in the 2006 midterm election. Particular attention will be given to the margin of victory to locate GOP targets and Democratic defends for 2008.
Today we will be looking at the Democratic takeover of New England
2004
2006
More after the flip.
Perhaps more striking than Democrats taking 6 House seats from Republican incubments in New England is just how close (6645 votes) Democrats came to a shutout taking the CT-04 from moderate Republican Christ Shays. In Massachusetts Republicans didn’t even bother to run candidate in 6 of 10 House races, and elsewhere relatively few races were close. Below I have created a shaded map to indicate vote margin, both Red and Blue are divided into 3 shades. The lightest shade of red or blue indicates that the races was decided by less than 5%, the medium shade is less than 10%, and the darkest shade indicates the victory was over 10%.
Looking through races contested in both 2004 and 2006 (and excluding VT-AL due it being held by Independent Bernie Sanders in 2004) a clearer picture of the wave that swept Democrats into seats previously held by Republicans can be seen.
The single largest vote gain (in % terms) by a Democrat between 2004 and 2006 was in the CT-05 where the Democratic vote share surged 34% from 38.2% in 2004 to 56.2% in 2006. In the CT-02 the Democratic candidate still hold a narrow lead, however the race has not yet been called. In the CT-04, Chris Shays had a near (career) death experience, winning his race by a mere 3.2%. As the lone remaining Republican in New England he should be a target for Democratic defection, with active efforts to woo him. And if he won’t make the change, then he needs to end up like Lincoln Chaffee.
In New Hampshire Democratic candidate eked out narrow victories. In the NH-01, the margin of victory was 3.1% a 29.9% gain over the 36.6% showing of the Democratic candidate in 2004. In the NH-02, Paul Hodes’s margin of victory was 6.1%, a 26.2% improvement over that 2004 showing at 38.2% for the Democratic candidate.
Looking forward to 2008, the CT-04, the sole remaining Republican seat in New England should be a pickup target if Shays doesn’t have the sense to do what’s right. Democratic victories in the CT-05, NH-01, NH-02, and VT-AL will have to be defended because they all are likely Republican pickup targets with 2006 victory margins under 10 points. Once the status of the CT-02 has been resolved we’ll know whether this is a seat that we will need to defend or a pickup opportunity.
For all the talk of a Solid South with Republicans dominating, nothing comes close to the level of victory that Democrats have achieved in New England. New England Republicans at the federal level are on the brink of extinction, if Democratic candidates who took Republican seats concentrate on constituent service to build up an incumbency advantage we will be able to speak of a total realignment in New England.
That’s it for New England. My next diary will focus on New York. The ETA for that should be sometime next week.
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