Tag: Rhode Island

Rhode Island doesn’t offer much for redistricting fans to sink their teeth into: it has two districts that are about equally blue, the Dems control the redistricting trifecta, and the disparity between the two districts, while not New Hampshire-close, requires only minimal boundary-shifting. Rhode Island’s target is a tiny 526,284 (only up from 524K in 2000… Rhode Island had the smallest growth, percentage-wise, of any state over the decade, putting it 2nd overall behind only Michigan, which actually lost population). If this continues, there’s the distinct possibility we could see Rhode Island reduced to one House seat come 2020. Also worth noting: Rhode Island had a lot of Hispanic growth over the decade, not quite on par with the Southwest but high for the Northeast; it went from 8.5% Hispanic to 12.4%, and Providence moved to a Hispanic plurality.

South Carolina is gaining one seat to move from six to seven; its new target based on 7 seats is 660,766 (it was 668K in 2000, so every district gained significantly over the decade). With the GOP holding the trifecta and much of the growth seeming to come among white retirees, look for the creation of one more Republican-friendly seat… with one possible wild card, that the Obama DOJ might weigh in and push for a second African-American VRA seat (theoretically possible if terribly ugly, as SSP’s crack team of freelance mapmakers have shown here). The biggest growth has come in the coastal Low Country, rather than the fiercely evangelical uplands; I’d expect Charleston and Myrtle Beach, both part of SC-01 for now, to wind up each anchoring their own districts.

West Virginia is staying at three seats for now, although it might be headed for two seats in 2020, given its slow growth and low targets; its target is 617,665, only up from 603K in 2000. The 3rd, in coal country in the southern part of the state, is losing population (though not as fast as one might suspect); the 2nd needs to shed an amount equivalent to what the 3rd needs to gain, leaving the 1st pretty stable. Much of the state’s growth is in the far east tip of the Panhandle (in the 2nd), especially Berkeley County, which serves as Washington DC’s furthest-out exurbs. Dave Wasserman, who seems to get all the good redistricting-related gossip, says that while the obvious solution (moving Mason County from the 2nd to the 3rd, and calling it a wrap) still seems likely, the Dems who control the redistricting trifecta might want to cobble together a slightly Dem-friendlier 1st along the state’s northern boundary that includes both Morgantown and the Panhandle exurbs (the only counties in the state that are getting bluer).

That seems to be the general thinking as of this moment.

MSNBC is reporting that their sources say it’s not Bayh or Kaine.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26…

ABC News is reporting a charter jet from Chicago to New Castle, DE

http://blogs.abcnews.com/polit…

It looks more and more likely that Biden is the guy.  I actually do like the pick.  Biden seems to be a good compliment to Obama.  An added bonus is that we don’t lost a Senate or Governorship with Biden as we probably would if Kaine or Bayh were the pick.  What do the rest of you think of the possibility of a Obama/Biden ticket?

This is the first in what will hopefully be a series of diaries examining the results of the Democratic victory in the 2006 midterm election.  Particular attention will be given to the margin of victory to locate GOP targets and Democratic defends for 2008.

Today we will be looking at the Democratic takeover of New England

2004

2006

More after the flip.

Perhaps more striking than Democrats taking 6 House seats from Republican incubments in New England is just how close (6645 votes) Democrats came to a shutout taking the CT-04 from moderate Republican Christ Shays.  In Massachusetts Republicans didn’t even bother to run candidate in 6 of 10 House races, and elsewhere relatively few races were close.  Below I have created a shaded map to indicate vote margin, both Red and Blue are divided into 3 shades.  The lightest shade of red or blue indicates that the races was decided by less than 5%, the medium shade is less than 10%, and the darkest shade indicates the victory was over 10%.

Looking through races contested in both 2004 and 2006 (and excluding VT-AL due it being held by Independent Bernie Sanders in 2004) a clearer picture of the wave that swept Democrats into seats previously held by Republicans can be seen.

The single largest vote gain (in % terms) by a Democrat between 2004 and 2006 was in the CT-05 where the Democratic vote share surged 34% from 38.2% in 2004 to 56.2% in 2006.  In the CT-02 the Democratic candidate still hold a narrow lead, however the race has not yet been called.  In the CT-04, Chris Shays had a near (career) death experience, winning his race by a mere 3.2%.  As the lone remaining Republican in New England he should be a target for Democratic defection, with active efforts to woo him.  And if he won’t make the change, then he needs to end up like Lincoln Chaffee.

In New Hampshire Democratic candidate eked out narrow victories.  In the NH-01, the margin of victory was 3.1%  a 29.9% gain over the 36.6% showing of the Democratic candidate in 2004.  In the NH-02, Paul Hodes’s margin of victory was 6.1%, a 26.2% improvement over that 2004 showing at 38.2% for the Democratic candidate.

Looking forward to 2008, the CT-04, the sole remaining Republican seat in New England should be a pickup target if Shays doesn’t have the sense to do what’s right.  Democratic victories in the CT-05, NH-01, NH-02, and VT-AL will have to be defended because they all are likely Republican pickup targets with 2006 victory margins under 10 points.  Once the status of the CT-02 has been resolved we’ll know whether this is a seat that we will need to defend or a pickup opportunity.

For all the talk of a Solid South with Republicans dominating, nothing comes close to the level of victory that Democrats have achieved in New England.  New England Republicans at the federal level are on the brink of extinction, if Democratic candidates who took Republican seats concentrate on constituent service to build up an incumbency advantage we will be able to speak of a total realignment in New England.

That’s it for New England.  My next diary will focus on New York.   The ETA for that should be sometime next week.