In less than 17 months the midterms will be upon us.
In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.
How will we go in 2010?
Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)
Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 257 of the Districts that we currently hold (does anyone really think that we won’t win in CA-32 in July?).
So onto the Republican held districts:
40 GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates:
AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,
AR-03 (Boozman) – R+16,
CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,
CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,
CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,
CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,
CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,
CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,
CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,
C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,
DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,
FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,
FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,
FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,
FL-10 (Young) – R+1,
FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,
FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,
IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,
IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,
IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,
KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,
KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,
KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,
MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,
MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,
MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,
MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,
NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,
NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,
NY-23 (McHugh) – R+1,
OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,
PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,
PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,
TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,
TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,
TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,
SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,
VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,
WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,
WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,
10 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:
AK-AL (Young) – R+13,
CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,
FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,
LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,
NY-03 (King) – R+4,
OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,
PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,
TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,
TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,
WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,
4 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:
FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,
MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,
SC-01 (Brown) – R+10,
SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,
124 GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:
AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,
AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,
AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,
AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,
AZ-03 (Shadegg) – R+9,
AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,
CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,
CA-19 (Radanovich) – R+9,
CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,
CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,
CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,
CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,
CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,
CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,
CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,
CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,
CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,
C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,
FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,
FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,
FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,
FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,
FL-21 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,
GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,
GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,
GA-06 (Price) – R+19,
GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,
GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,
GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,
GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,
ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,
IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,
IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,
IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,
IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,
IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,
IN-04 (Buyer) – R+14,
IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,
IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,
IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,
IA-05 (King) – R+9,
KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,
KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,
KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,
KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,
LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,
LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,
LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,
LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,
LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,
MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,
MI-03 (Ehlers) – R+6,
MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,
MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,
MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,
MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,
MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,
MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,
MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,
MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,
MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,
MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,
MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,
NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,
NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,
NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,
NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,
NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,
NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,
NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,
NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,
NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,
NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,
NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,
NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,
OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,
OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,
OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,
OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,
OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,
OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,
OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,
OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,
OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,
OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,
OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,
PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,
PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,
PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,
PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,
SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,
TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,
TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,
TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,
TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,
TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,
TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,
TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,
TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,
TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,
TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,
TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,
TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,
TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,
TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,
TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,
TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,
TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,
TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,
TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,
UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,
UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,
VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,
VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,
VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,
VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,
WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,
WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,
WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,
WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,
WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,
So we now have candidate in 297 House Districts, 10 Districts with candidates considering their options and 4 with rumoured candidates.
Whilst in numerical terms we are about where we were at this stage in 2007 we do now hold 20 more districts but we also control the White House (still love saying that).
So at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment but so much more remains to be done.
On the upside we already have a full slate in 15 states – Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico :), North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota & Vermont.
We also have only 1 district to fill in 7 states – Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Mississippi, Oregon, West Virginia and Wyoming.
On the other hand however Texas is a problem for us as it has been for the last two cycles with 19 Districts still to fill. So too do we have far too many vancancies in California and Florida but at least in these 2 states we do already have candidates in a number of Republican districts.
Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.
Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.
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What’s news, gossip, rumours?
…Castle gives up the seat to gun for the Senate.
My bet always has been that he either retires or runs for reelection, notwithstanding his Senate noises and his supposed inclination not to stay in the House no matter what else he does. I think he’s ultimately going to decide that a race against Beau Biden won’t be any easier than defending his seat against John Carney, and that being a 71-year old freshman in a a sub-40 GOP Senate Caucus wouldn’t be any more fun than being a senior House GOPer. And on top of that, I think he still wants to be in Congress, so he’ll run after all.
But I agree that if Castle gives up the House seat, it’s ours for sure and the best bet on that list.
Vacancies are likely to fill after the 2009 elections, not before. Ironically, if Democrats hold on to the Governor’s seats, it might be harder to recruit for 2010 as some people will wait for redistricting.
NY-23 might be a Democratic seat but the timing depends on McHugh’s confirmation. NY-26, otoh, does not seem to have an active candidate or even likely. Last cycle’s nominee, Alice Kryzan, is running for Mayor of her home town. Jack Davis has apparently gotten the Espada bug and defected to the Republicans (or maybe the Monserratte bug and defected back to the Republicans). That would seem to leave Jon Powers but no word on the various NY state, Rochester,or Buffalo blogs. I’d like to see someone early in this one.
The website for Tom Wyka, the Democratic candidate for NJ-11 contains the phrase, “stay tuned for the fight for a better tomorrow.” Wyka was the losing candidate in both 2006 and 2008.
Politics1.com lists Wyka in light red. He’s a leaner, definitely not in.
Wyka ran in 2006 and 2008. In arguably the most Republican district in the state (certainly so until 2008), Wyka actually had to win a primary to get his rematch. I live in this district but contributed in NJ-5 because there was more of a chance.
We have an active declared candidate in MI-10. Natalie Mosher has a web site (www.mosherforcongress.com) and has filed papers with the fec. A local state senator is listed by politics1 ans a maybe but Mosher is in.