So the images are pretty self-explanatory. I’ve created two minority-majority districts and protected (I think) Charlie Melancon. My working assumption is that we’re at the end of the road for electing white Democrats in the deep south. Of course, the final map will not look like this: I’ve recreated the Cleo Fields’s illegal “Z” district. So what I have in mind is what a Democratic gerrymander might look at. Enjoy….
North Louisiana:
South Louisiana:
Shreveport:
Baton Rouge and Lafayette:
New Orleans:
Yes, it’s a revolting gerrymander, but it promotes more minority representation in a state where race is still all too closely aligned with politics. Of course, with the Court’s ruling in Bartlett v. Strickland, and with Kennedy primed to throw out Section 5, the strength of minority representation VRA provisions is weaker than ever.
I was trying my hand at Louisiana earlier today and could not seem to push the black pop. over 50% in District 2.
I’ll just post it here. I made my own map of LA based on the idea that they might want to recreate the “Cleo Fields” district given the huge explosion of black growth in the Baton Rouge Area. Here was the old Cleo Fields district.
Notice how it emanates from Baton Rouge, up the Mississippi, over to Shreveport in the northern direction, and does a weird swoop over to Lafayette in the southern direction. The large growth in the black community meant that your district didn’t need to do the Southern swoop; in fact, yours didn’t even take in all of Baton Rouge. I figured that if I took in all of Baton Rouge and clipped the district before it went to Shreveport and other crazy places then I could create something that would stand up in court. Here’s what I came up with.
District 2 close-up/New Orleans Metro
Baton Rouge Close-up
Lafayette Close-up
Monroe Close-up
Alexandria Close-up
District 1 Full
District 1 (blue) is the new Cleo Fields District, stretching from Baton Rouge through Lafayette to the Southwest and up the Mississippi, West to some mid-size towns. It’s actually very compact and geographically reasonable and get this – it’s 57.7% black!!! Seriously, it looks just that good and it’s just that black. I think it looks damn good as it is, but even if someone wanted to smooth out the edges a little, it could take it since it has about 7.7% to spare.
District 2 (green) is Anh Cao’s New Orleans district. It takes in some white areas in New Orleans for population purposes as well as some rural black areas to the West to keep it VRA-protected. If someone wanted to smooth out the edges a little, it could take it since it’s still 53.7% black.
District 3 (purple) is Charlie Melancon’s district. It gives up some black areas to keep CD-2 majority black, while taking in white parts of Baton Rouge for proximity purposes, as well as some parts of the old CD-7. Melancon should be fine, unless I put Boustany’s home in this district; if I did, he’ll have one hell of a fight on his hands. (15.5% black)
District 4 (red) is John Fleming’s district. It’s pretty much the same thing, plus part of the old CD-7. He’s pretty damn safe here, unless the black percentage raises over time. (30.5% black)
District 5 (yellow) Rodney Alexander’s district. He should be safe; I may have put Boustany’s home in this district, but it’s mostly Alexander territory so he should win a primary easily. (21.4% black)
District 6 (teal) Steve Scalise’s district, pretty much the same, except it now takes in parts of Baton Rouge for population purposes. Still the most Republican district in the state. (11.2% black)
So there you have it, I’m not sure where Cassidy ended up, but who cares, he has no seniority. He’s either in CD-3 or CD-6 most likely. He’d lose in the primary in CD-6, and in CD-3 he’d either face Boustany in the primary and lose there or go on to face Melancon in the general, which would be a real race.
As for the districts
LA-1 (blue, Scalise): 15% African-American
LA-2 (green, a Orleans Dem): 66% African-American
LA-3 (purple, Melancon): 21% African-American
LA-4 (red, Fleming): 37% African-American
LA-5 (yellow, Alexander & Boustany): 25% African-American
LA-6 (teal, Cassidy): 26% African-American
ideally the 2nd would have be around 55 to 60%. But the only way to really do that would involve lopping off part of Baton Rouge or something like that.
CD-2 and CD-3 will be merged. They took the largest hit in population. Whoever beats Cao next year will probably end up being elected in 2012