*** Update July 7: Now I have all precinct data, PVI calculations are complete. ***
Pennsylvania is expected to lose a district so it will have 18. My goals are:
– Make districts that look fair, even if they’re not.
– Keep communities together
– Try not to screw over any incumbent Democrats
– Put Democratic territory in Democratic districts
– Anticipate future voting trends
Here is my redistricting plan:
Click on the image for a full size screenshot.
Philadelphia closeup:
1st District (old 1st) D+21
“The Eastern Philadelphia district”
Incumbent: Bob Brady (D)
The first district has been shifted east. It is now 51% white, 21% black, 6% Asian and 20% Hispanic. It gave 73.59% of its vote to Obama, making it D+21. The old 1st is D+35.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia (pt) | 223428 | 77797 | 73.59% | 25.62% |
2nd District (old 2nd) D+40
“The Western Philadelphia district”
Incumbent: Chaka Fattah (D)
The second district is now 24% white, 67% black, 5% Asian and 3% Hispanic. It gave an incredible 93.03% of its vote to Obama, making it D+40. The old 2nd is D+38. It will be the third most Democratic district in America, behind only NY-15 and NY-16, and tied with Washington DC.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia (pt) | 341893 | 24374 | 93.03% | 6.63% |
3rd District (old 7th) D+9
“The Delaware County district”
Incumbent: whoever succeeds Joe Sestak in 2010
This district has been made more Democratic. It takes up all of Delaware County, the rest of Philadelphia, and a small amount of Montgomery.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware | 178870 | 115273 | 60.22% | 38.81% |
| Montgomery (pt) | 37275 | 17659 | 67.45% | 31.95% |
| Philadelphia (pt) | 30659 | 15050 | 66.38% | 32.58% |
| Total | 246804 | 147982 | 61.94% | 37.14% |
4th District (old 13th) D+6
“The Montgomery district”
Incumbent: Allyson Schwartz (D)
This district is now entirely within Montgomery County.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery (pt) | 215206 | 147338 | 58.85% | 40.29% |
5th District (old 8th) D+1
“The Bucks district”
Incumbent: Patrick Murphy (D)
By removing its territory from Philadelphia and Montgomery and adding territory from Lehigh and Northampton the district becomes a little less Democratic. It stops short of Allentown and Bethlehem but takes Easton from the Dent district. Patrick Murphy should be safe.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucks | 179031 | 150248 | 53.78% | 45.13% |
| Lehigh (pt) | 6770 | 7463 | 47.02% | 51.84% |
| Northampton (pt) | 11346 | 7145 | 60.55% | 38.13% |
| Total | 197147 | 164856 | 53.86% | 45.04% |
6th District (old 16th) D+1
“The Chester district”
Incumbent: Joe Pitts (R)
The current district takes all of Lancaster County and some of Chester. In this plan it takes all of Chester and some of Lancaster, including the city. Chester is the more Democratic county, so this shift makes it more Democratic. Joe Pitts may be able to win this district but after he retires a Democrat should win it.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester | 137833 | 114421 | 54.19% | 44.98% |
| Lancaster (pt) | 38485 | 35210 | 51.78% | 47.37% |
| Total | 176318 | 149631 | 53.64% | 45.04% |
7th District (old 6th, sort of) R+5
“The Reading district”
Incumbent: whoever succeeds Jim Gerlach in 2010
My ideal scenario: Jim Gerlach runs for higher office and a Democrat from Berks County wins the open 6th district in 2010. This Democrat becomes popular quickly and easily wins the more Republican district in 2012. Over time Berks trends more Democratic and Lancaster trends more moderate.
My less ideal scenario: A Republican wins it in 2010, or Jim Gerlach stays, so we make it more Republican.
It is made of almost all of Berks, most of Lancaster, and a tiny amount of Montgomery.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berks (pt) | 92672 | 73890 | 54.89% | 43.77% |
| Lancaster (pt) | 61101 | 91358 | 39.73% | 59.40% |
| Montgomery (pt) | 912 | 555 | 61.17% | 37.22% |
| Total | 154685 | 165803 | 47.72% | 51.15% |
8th District (old 15th) D+4
“The Allentown district”
Incumbent: Charles Dent (R)
The district loses territory from its southeastern border to the Murphy district, and gains most of Monroe County. This shift makes it more Democratic.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lehigh (pt) | 80319 | 55919 | 58.17% | 40.50% |
| Monroe (pt) | 30676 | 23064 | 56.48% | 42.47% |
| Northampton (pt) | 63909 | 51366 | 54.71% | 43.97% |
| Total | 174904 | 130349 | 56.57% | 42.16% |
9th District (old 19th) R+10
“The York district”
Incumbent: Todd Platts (R)
Because of its fast population growth, the district loses some area. It is still strongly Republican.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams (pt) | 13783 | 19866 | 40.49% | 58.36% |
| Cumberland (pt) | 42156 | 54258 | 43.23% | 55.65% |
| York | 82839 | 109268 | 42.65% | 56.26% |
| Total | 138778 | 183392 | 42.60% | 56.30% |
10th District (old 17th) R+5
“The Harrisburg district”
Incumbent: Tim Holden (D)
This district is still based in Harrisburg. It loses strongly Republican territory in Perry County and gains strongly Republican territory in Northumberland and Montour Counties. Tim Holden keeps getting reelected despite the Republican lean of the district so he should be able to continue. Northumberland and Montour are currently in the Carney district so they are used to having a Democratic Congressman. It is only 0.18% more Republican than before.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berks (pt) | 4375 | 6623 | 39.15% | 59.27% |
| Columbia (pt) | 5862 | 4847 | 53.62% | 44.34% |
| Dauphin | 69975 | 58238 | 54.02% | 58.86% |
| Lebanon | 23310 | 34314 | 39.98% | 58.86% |
| Montour | 3364 | 4574 | 41.93% | 57.01% |
| Northumberland | 14329 | 19018 | 42.22% | 56.04% |
| Schuylkill | 28300 | 33767 | 44.88% | 53.55% |
| Total | 149515 | 161381 | 47.47% | 51.24% |
11th District (old 11th) D+3
“The Scranton district”
Incumbent: Paul Kanjorski (D) or his successor
The district now includes all of Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon | 13464 | 12957 | 50.01% | 48.13% |
| Columbia (pt) | 7401 | 9600 | 42.67% | 55.37% |
| Lackawanna | 67520 | 39488 | 62.59% | 36.60% |
| Luzerne | 72492 | 61127 | 53.63% | 45.22% |
| Monroe (pt) | 8777 | 5229 | 62.11% | 37.00% |
| Wyoming | 5985 | 6983 | 45.55% | 53.15% |
| Total | 175639 | 135384 | 55.83% | 43.04% |
12th District (old 10th, and most of 5th) R+8
“The northern district”
Incumbent: Chris Carney (D)
The district takes all of the New York border except Erie County, and it extends south into Centre County. In 2008 Carney was reelected by a comfortable margin and this proposed district is 0.12% more Democratic. I expect northern Pennsylvania will eventually become more Democratic, like Upstate New York. Giving them a Democratic Congressman should speed up the trend. One problem is Glenn Thompson, Republican Congressman from the 5th District, lives in Centre County. He should run in the new 14th.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 10306 | 15057 | 39.97% | 58.39% |
| Cameron | 879 | 1323 | 39.15% | 58.93% |
| Centre | 41950 | 32992 | 55.37% | 43.55% |
| Clinton | 7097 | 7504 | 47.98% | 50.73% |
| Elk | 7290 | 6676 | 51.08% | 46.78% |
| Forest | 1038 | 1366 | 42.47% | 55.89% |
| Lycoming (pt) | 17163 | 27587 | 37.91% | 60.94% |
| McKean | 6465 | 9224 | 40.54% | 57.84% |
| Pike | 11493 | 12518 | 47.33% | 51.55% |
| Potter | 2300 | 5109 | 30.64% | 68.06% |
| Sullivan | 1233 | 1841 | 39.52% | 59.01% |
| Susquehanna | 8381 | 10633 | 43.46% | 55.13% |
| Tioga | 6390 | 11326 | 35.53% | 62.98% |
| Warren | 8537 | 9685 | 46.10% | 52.30% |
| Wayne | 9892 | 12702 | 43.32% | 55.63% |
| Total | 140414 | 165543 | 45.29% | 53.39% |
13th District (old 9th) R+19
“The south-central district”
Incumbent: Bill Shuster (R)
It’s more compact than before, and shifted a little bit east. This is the northern Bible Belt. At R+19 there are only a small handful of districts in America that are more Republican.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams (pt) | 3850 | 6483 | 36.83% | 62.02% |
| Bedford | 6059 | 16124 | 27.00% | 71.84% |
| Blair | 19813 | 32708 | 37.31% | 61.59% |
| Cumberland (pt) | 6150 | 9471 | 38.95% | 59.99% |
| Franklin | 21169 | 41906 | 33.26% | 65.85% |
| Fulton | 1576 | 4642 | 24.99% | 73.61% |
| Huntingdon | 6621 | 11745 | 35.54% | 63.04% |
| Juniata | 3068 | 6484 | 31.59% | 66.77% |
| Lycoming (pt) | 1218 | 2693 | 30.72% | 67.92% |
| Mifflin | 5375 | 10929 | 32.57% | 66.23% |
| Perry | 6396 | 13058 | 32.39% | 66.13% |
| Snyder | 5382 | 9900 | 34.77% | 63.96% |
| Somerset (pt) | 5323 | 11473 | 31.21% | 67.27% |
| Union | 7333 | 9859 | 42.14% | 56.66% |
| Total | 99333 | 187475 | 34.23% | 64.60% |
14th District (parts of the old 5th, 12th and 9th) R+10
“The Johnstown district”
Incumbent: Glenn Thompson (R) [from Centre County]
I’ve been told this area would elect a Democratic Congressman despite its Republican PVI because it’s historically Democratic. I’ll believe it when I see it. This will be the whitest district in PA at 96.1%.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambria | 32451 | 31995 | 49.42% | 48.72% |
| Clearfield | 14555 | 18662 | 43.05% | 55.19% |
| Fayette (pt) | 7274 | 10319 | 40.84% | 57.94% |
| Indiana | 17065 | 19727 | 45.75% | 52.88% |
| Jefferson | 3068 | 6484 | 31.59% | 66.77% |
| Somerset (pt) | 7555 | 10213 | 41.71% | 56.38% |
| Westmoreland (pt) | 41679 | 61144 | 40.07% | 58.79% |
| Total | 123647 | 158544 | 43.17% | 55.35% |
15th District (parts of the old 3rd and 4th) R+13
“The Butler district”
Incumbent: Tim Murphy (R)
Tim Murphy (R) lives in the 17th and Jason Altmire (D) lives in the 15th. They should trade districts.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allegheny (pt) | 62879 | 80564 | 43.48% | 55.71% |
| Armstrong | 11138 | 18542 | 37.03% | 61.64% |
| Butler | 32260 | 57074 | 35.68% | 63.12% |
| Clarion | 6756 | 10737 | 38.03% | 60.44% |
| Venango | 9238 | 13718 | 39.64% | 58.66% |
| Westmoreland (pt) | 16670 | 22239 | 42.44% | 56.62% |
| Total | 138941 | 202874 | 40.22% | 58.72% |
16th District (old 14th) D+14
“The Pittsburgh district”
Incumbent: Mike Doyle (D)
The district gets bigger because the Pittsburgh area lost population. I shifted it east so the Altmire district could get some more Democratic towns along the Ohio River.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allegheny (pt) | 225371 | 107892 | 66.97% | 32.06% |
17th District (parts of the old 12th and 18th) R+3
“The southwest district”
Incumbent: Jason Altmire (D) [assuming Murtha retires, or gets indicted]
This southwestern PA district is compact and Obama wins it. Yes it’s possible.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allegheny (pt) | 84521 | 83501 | 49.84% | 49.23% |
| Beaver (pt) | 14587 | 12626 | 52.91% | 45.80% |
| Fayette (pt) | 18592 | 15762 | 53.50% | 45.36% |
| Greene | 7829 | 7889 | 49.00% | 49.38% |
| Washington | 46122 | 50752 | 47.04% | 51.76% |
| Westmoreland (pt) | 6285 | 4989 | 55.23% | 43.84% |
| Total | 177936 | 175519 | 49.80% | 49.12% |
18th District (old 3rd) R+1
“The Erie district”
Incumbent: Kathy Dahlkemper (D)
Now it’s a proper Democratic Northwest PA district.
| County | #Obama | #McCain | %Obama | %McCain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaver (pt) | 25912 | 30269 | 45.52% | 53.18% |
| Crawford | 16780 | 20750 | 44.00% | 54.41% |
| Erie | 75775 | 50351 | 59.34% | 39.43% |
| Lawrence | 19711 | 21851 | 46.82% | 51.90% |
| Mercer | 26411 | 26565 | 49.07% | 49.36% |
| Total | 164589 | 149786 | 51.65% | 47.00% |
I am now retired from redistricting diaries.
PA is home, so I have a few thoughts.
First, Allyson Schwartz will like her new district, but not love it. She tends to get better numbers in the Philly part of her district (which she has tended to very well) and should would absolutely want her old stomping grounds of W. Mt. Airy and Chestnut Hill. (Where I’m from, so I have a bias).
As for Philly, I think there can be two minority-majority districts once you yank the NW. And probably there would be a retrogression problem unless you did that.
You’ve essentially drawn Dahlkemper and Altmire into the same district (the 18th) while recreating the old 20th in the form of the new 17th. Maybe you’re thinking Frank Maresca wants to make another run for Congress? And yes, your 14th will elect a Democrat. Bet on it.
Meanwhile, Chris Carney doesn’t have a district, because there’s no way he can beat Glenn Thompson (who live in Centre County) in your 12th.
Holden shouldn’t be too unhappy with your 10th, but he’d probably rather have more of Berks, like his old 6th.
Biggest priorities are taking Gerlach’s and Dent’s seats. Is it possible to maintain four Democrats in Western PA? I know population loss is killing us there, and trends in general in the Pittsburgh suburbs are tough for us, but is there any way to preserve Dahlkemper, Altmire, Doyle, AND Murtha? Surely Doyle’s district can be diluted enough to make Tim Murphy’s district winnable for a Democrat?
These numbers for the 2008 presidential election are cool! Where did you get them?
Thompson would run in the 12th.
But then again, you’re thinking that Altmire and Murphy would swap districts for no apparent reason.
The 6th district would be a fair fight, but Pitts would not be able to win it. He is not popular in his much more conservative district, he cannot win a D+10 one. The Berks portion of the 7th probably prevents Pitts from running there.
I’m not sure why people are finding it hard to sort out western Pennsylvania. If we’re going for incumbent protection, you can make an ultra-conservative district for Tim Murphy out of Butler, Armstrong, and Westmoreland counties. Green, Washington, Cambria, Indiana, and Clearfield, etc. would keep Murtha afloat. Pittsburgh north can be won by Altmire.
for number of hours spent on a redistricting diary of a big state! California’s gonna be fun…
After much deep thinking about this and playing around with the map, I’ve come to the following conclusion-unless the GOP somehow gets to run remap then Murphy is toast.
The reasoning is that if a judge ends up drawing the lines, there’s almost no way they’d create something like Murphy has now. It’s impossible without massive gerrymandering-his current district, if you look at it, is one step short of fictitious. Even with all of the help its still not that great of a district for him.
Murphy will either draw Murtha in a race he can’t win or end up in an sanely drawn 18th that he can’t win (possibly to Sean Logan?)
I’m taking newly-Democratic Berks County and combining it with very-Republican outer Lancaster County to make an R+5 district.
He has lived in Overbrook Park at the far western tip of Philadelphia his whole life, and probably doesn’t want to move. That’s why CD1 and CD2 look so complicated in real life.