2010 House Open Seat Watch (9/2/09)

29 thoughts on “2010 House Open Seat Watch (9/2/09)”

2. This is incredibly important.  When you consider that of the 58 total Democratic seats lost in 1994 (52 net, + special election losses minus a few GOP seats gained), 24 of the Democratic seat losses were in open seats.

   In 2010, potentially the difference between a very bad night for Democrats (loss of 25-30 seats) and a horrible night (40+ losses) would very likely be among open seats, it’s pretty unlikely that Democrats could lose 40 incumbents.

   So the $64,000 question is how many vulnerable district Democrats this fall, who may or may not have considered retiring before this horrible August recess, now decide that the House paycheck isn’t worth it and decide to hang it up.

   Charlie Cook
   
   The Cook Political Report

3. Visclosky (IN-01) managed to get himself caught up in the FBI investigation of one of his major contributors/lobbyists a couple of months ago. It might not be serious enough to warrant retirement yet, but he should still be on the list.  

4. i may be wrong about this, but I’m pretty sure John Boehner isn’t a democrat 🙂

5. I assume it’s from the right, considering his profile, yes?  Should we care or worry?  Also, how many of the maybe challengers for a general election or primary in swing districts seem legit (Boswell, Boyd) and what are the chances of our Ds in R held seats actually bailing (Stupak, the North Carolina duo)?

6. Get ready for Davis to pull a Gutierrez and un-retire and run for re-election.

   As much as he’d like the girls (Dorothy Brown and Toni Preckwinkle) to drop and support his candidacy, I don’t see it happening.

7. Neither is going to run since Kitzhaber got in.

8. Now there’s a diary up on dKos calling for Rangel to step down as head of Ways and Means, and pointing out that he’s been making “campaign contributions” to many other House Democrats since the investigations started. Oh great. Not enough that he should go down with a little smear of corruption but he should pull others down with him?

   http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

   The diary didn’t get a lot of attention, but Charlie got no Comments in his defense, not one.

   Drip. Drip. Drip.

   It ought to be said that Charlie Rangel has given considerable and effective service to his constituents, his city and state, his party, and the nation over his long career. But omitting income and assets from his financial disclosure forms was beyond stupid; it deserves Freudian analysis. In a couple of years he’s gone from being an invulnerable incumbent to being at growing risk of losing a primary.

   Of course, the Harlem establishment of leading black politicians is usually very close-knit — former Mayor Dinkins, former Lt Gov candidate Basil Paterson and his son David Paterson the now Governor, former Manhattan Borough President Virginia Fields, Assemblyman Herman D. Farrell, Jr, head of the state Democratic Party, and various other state and city legislators generally work together to maximize their power.

   The potential candidate most likely to bolt the establishment would be Adam Clayton Powell IV. He’s half Puerto Rican, after all, with a grandfather who had been Mayor of San Juan. But OMG he carries heavy baggage: Divorced in the 1990s and still unmarried, he got big press for an “incident” in a motel room with a 19-year-old intern (which led to the Legislature banning off-campus fraternization by members and interns), another claim of rape (but no charges were filed), and just last year an arrest for Driving Under the Influence in NYC (with a woman in the back seat passed out drunk, him to the precinct house, her to the hospital).

   The district has been changing demographically. The core remains black, but large areas around the edge are Puerto Rican and Dominican. My own brownstone-lined block off Central Park West is just inside his district lines, and it’s been predominately white for the 30+ years I’ve lived here. But the line demarking the white liberal Upper West Side from black Harlem has shifted north by half a mile or more.

   Harlem itself has gentrified, with many young middle class voters moving into renovated brownstones and new condos on formerly vacant lots. Most of the new residents may be buppies, black upper income, but some are yuppies, white or Asian or Hispanic. The newcomers tolerance for any appearance of sleaze will probably be less than the patience of many traditional Harlem voters.

   Charlie may be forced to announce that this is his last term, perhaps in a face-saving deal with the House Ethics Committee.

   Meanwhile New York voters of every race, color, class, and region are disgusted with a corrupt bunch in our State Senate. We may see a lot of new faces in Albany after the election next year when they sit down to redraw the House lines after the Census figures are released and the state loses two seats.

9. While it is unquestionable that the Dems have slipped, the Reps haven’t gained much from it. Most of the shift has come from indies, who are now almost evenly split. The GOP core, however, has remained flat.

   http://www.gallup.com/poll/122…

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