Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/12-14, likely voters).
DE-Sen:
Beau Biden (D): 45
Mike Castle (R): 46
Undecided: 9Ted Kaufman (D): 37
Mike Castle (R): 51
Undecided: 12John Carney (D): 41
Mike Castle (R): 49
Undecided: 10Chris Coons (D): 39
Mike Castle (R): 51
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4%)
DE-AL:
John Carney (D): 44
Charlie Copeland (R): 21
Undecided: 35John Carney (D): 45
Greg Lavelle (R): 18
Undecided: 37
(MoE: ±4%)
Conventional wisdom among legacy media pundits, once Rep. Mike Castle somewhat unexpectedly got into the Senate race, was that the race had suddenly shot past tossup status into Republican leaning territory. Today’s first R2K poll of the race should dispel that notion: AG Beau Biden is fully competitive with Castle, trailing him by only 1, and matching the popular Castle on favorables (65/29 for Biden, 64/30 for Castle). And that’s before any gloves have come off (for instance, the DSCC bringing its weight, and the presence of a certain vice-presidential dad, to bear). If there’s any doubt, consider the case of Bill Roth‘s 2000 election, as an indication of what happens when popular but tired and aging Delaware icons who’ve never really been tested, and who’ve slowly gotten out of touch with a gradually bluening state, run up against a vigorous opponent.
There’s one question remaining, though: is Biden actually going to run? Having recently returned from Iraq, Biden hasn’t said much on the matter yet, leaving some worried that the entry of Castle into the race might deter him. In the event that he doesn’t, R2K polled some other possibilities (including caretaker Sen. Ted Kaufman staying on, former Lt. Gov. (and 2008 gubernatorial primary loser) John Carney switching from the House race, or New Castle County Exec Chris Coons getting in), and the results aren’t as good. There’s some good news on that front today, though: Biden is “absolutely” considering running for the Senate, according to ABC News. Biden will be making the decision “in due course,” after the requisite family conference.
R2K also looks at the House race in the wake of Castle’s vacating the seat, which is quickly shaping up to be one of the Dems’ likeliest pickups in 2010. With the Democratic establishment firmly behind Carney, the GOP is just starting to cast its net. The top target is probably former state Sen. and former Lt. Gov. candidate Charlie Copeland, but other possibilities include state Reps. Tom Kovach and Greg Lavelle, businessmen Robert Harra and Anthony Wedo, and possibly former US Attorney Colm Connolly. In the end, which Republican takes the plunge may not matter much, as R2K finds Carney doubling-up on either Copeland or Lavelle.
which is always something I look for in a state with a significant minority presence.
Good numbers on the Senate race; should be an interesting contest. Hypothetically, Beau will be rerunning Dad’s first campaign (young guy versus state institution), except without the unknown status.
If beau Biden runs this shows don’t write him off.No
matter how much a moderate Castle tries to postion himself
he still voted against the Stimulas,and will almost
certainly vote against Health Care Reform.If Joe Biden
could go after Mccain he will go after Castle especially
with his son running.Beau Biden was a great speaker at
the convention In 2008,and He could repeat what his father
did back In 1972.
These are encouraging. Not much of lead for Castle considering his high name recognition and favorability when the Dems aren’t very well known at all.
he embarrassed himself with a 61-39 loss last year, and he’d have to give up his State Senate seat to run in 2010.
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Beau was clearly down in early polling against Castle months ago, in one poll by 21 points, and now R2K has him down just one a few days after Rasmussen had him down just 4.
The only thing that’s changed is that Beau was gone then and is home now. So I wonder if that’s what caused the shift. After all, he was invisible in Delaware for all his time in Iraq, and voters aren’t contemplating why he’s gone in a simple polling trial heat question. Now he’s in the news, and they remember him and remember that they like him.
I do think this is going down to the wire.
And I think Beau will have the edge based on age and hunger, combined with dad and dad’s boss going to the mat for him.
Biden in this case and Cuomo’s in NY. They are the expected candidates and the party will support them the minute they announce. Supporters and volunteers get nervous the longer it goes, but they look good to non-politicos for not being political. So what’s the best time?
Castle has raised very little money so Biden doesn’t need to jump in to be competitive financially. I think they both announce in either November or January. And the rest of us are just going to have to bite our fingernails:(