Tag: Ted Kaufman

• AK-Sen: Nothing has really changed with the overall trajectory of the Alaska Senate race, but this is the first day that Lisa Murkowski has been able to claim a “lead” over Joe Miller (even though her victory has become increasingly clear each day). At the end of yesterday’s counting, she had 92,164 votes to Miller’s 90,448. 7,601 were subject to challenge but counted for her anyway (and, if Miller’s lawsuit succeeds, could get reversed), but based on Murkowski’s success at avoiding write-in challenges, is on track to win with or without those challenged ballots.

• FL-Sen: George LeMieux, whose year-and-a-half in the Senate is about to expire, is leaving with more of a whimper than a bang, if PPP is to be believed: his approvals are 11/28 (with 61% with no opinion), including 14/24 among Republicans. He’s not looking like he’d have much impact in a challenge to Bill Nelson in 2012, which he’s threatened (which isn’t to say that Nelson is out of the woods, as a stronger Republican will no doubt come along). Among all the appointed Senators, he’s still faring better than Roland Burris (18/57) but worse than Carte Goodwin (17/22) and Ted Kaufman (38/33). (Oh, and if you’re still feeling like we lost out by not having Charlie Crist win the Senate race, guess again: Bob Dole! is reporting that Crist promised him he’d caucus with the GOP if he won the 3-way race. This comes after leaks in the waning days of the race that he’d caucus with the Democrats. Somehow, I expect any day now that Ralph Nader will reveal that Crist promised him that he’d caucus with the Green Party if he won the race.)

• IN-Sen: Richard Lugar made it official; he’s running for re-election one more time. Lugar, who’ll be 80 in 2012, probably has more to worry about in the Republican primary than he does in the general election, where aspiring Democrats would probably be more interested in the open gubernatorial seat.

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown will probably have a tougher re-election than his initial election, but it’s unclear which Republican he’ll face. The two who’ve gotten the most press are Mary Taylor, the current Auditor and newly-elected Lt. Governor, or Rep. Jim Jordan (a religious right fave from the state’s rural west), but another possibility that the article broaches is long-time Rep. Steve LaTourette, one of the House’s more moderate GOPers left. Either way, if Jordan or LaTourette were to try for the promotion, that would help the state GOP decide which of their seats to vaporize in the redistricting process (although LaTourette’s, in the northeast corner and surrounded by Dem seats, would be much harder to work with). Ohio’s losing two seats, though, and one more Dem seat is on the chopping block, especially since the biggest population losses have come in the northeast — the likeliest outcome seems to be consolidation of districts that sets up either a Dennis Kucinich/Marcia Fudge or Dennis Kucinich/Betty Sutton mash-up.

• PA-Sen: The GOP feels like they have a shot against Bob Casey (who won by a near-overwhelming margin in 2006), given the state’s turn toward the red this year. The big question, though, is who? If Tom Ridge didn’t do it this year when it would have been a gimmee, he certainly isn’t any likelier to do it in 2012. Hotline mentions a couple current suburban Reps., Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent, both of whom have tenaciously held down Dem-leaning districts that would be prime open seat battles if they left. Failing that, the bench looks pretty empty; they cite state Sen. Jake Corman as interested, as well as talk radio host and behind-the-scenes player Glen Meakem, who cited interest in running for 2010 but decided against it.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota’s SoS (a Dem, Mark Ritchie) has laid out the timeline for the recount process. The race will be canvassed starting Nov. 23, and presuming a recount is necessary (which it will be unless something weird happens with the canvass, as Dem Mark Dayton leads Tom Emmer by less than one-half of a percent, triggering the automatic recount provision), the recounting will begin on Nov. 29.

• MD-01: Nothing like teabagger hypocrisy at work: freshly elected with a mandate to destroy the federal government, Andy Harris’s first act in Washington was to demand all the free goodies from the federal government that he’s entitled to, so long as other people are paying for them. At freshman orientation, Harris was observed expressing dismay that his gold-plated health care plan takes a month to kick in.

• NY-01, NY-25: Here are a couple more updates from overtime. In the 1st, Randy Altschuler’s lead over Tim Bishop is currently 383, but there are more than 11,000 absentees to be counted starting today, and since they’re all from one county (Suffolk), your guess is as good as mine how they break. In NY-25, Ann Marie Buerkle gained a tiny bit of ground as two GOP-leaning counties reported their absentees; she’s now up 729. Dan Maffei’s base, Dem-leaning Onondaga County, is about to start counting its 6,000 absentees. He should make up some ground, but he’ll need to average 56% among the remaining absentee ballots, while he’s only got 54% in Onondaga so far, though.

• DSCC: Dianne Feinstein told the press that Michael Bennet is, despite his previous demurrals, going to be the next DSCC chair. Does Michael Bennet know this? He’s still saying no. The rest of the Dem leadership in the Senate (and the GOP, too) was elected without a hitch today, but the DSCC job still stands vacant.

• CA-AG: Things keep looking up for Kamala Harris in California, after a torrent of new votes yesterday from Alameda County (where the Dem stronghold of Oakland is). That batch broke 18,764 for Harris, and only 5,099 for Steve Cooley, which may be a decisive moment in the count.

• Chicago mayor: Rahm Emanuel is certainly looking like the early favorite in the Chicago mayoral race, courtesy of an Anzalone-Liszt poll commissioned by the Teamsters local (who haven’t endorsed yet). Emanuel is at 36, with Danny Davis at 14, Carol Mosely Braun at 13, Gery Chico at 10, James Meeks at 7, and Miguel del Valle at 4. Now you may be noticing what I’m noticing, that there’s significant splitting of the African-American vote here, and if you added Davis, Braun, and Meeks up into one super-candidate, they’d be in a dead heat with Emanuel. Well, don’t forget that this election uses a runoff, so chances are good we’ll see a head-to-head between Emanuel and one of the African-American challengers, and the poll finds Emanuel winning both those contests convincingly too: 54-33 versus Davis and 55-32 against Braun.

Cross posted at http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more election analysis.

These are my 2nd Senate rankings this year. The first series is here http://swingstateproject.com/d…

Welcome to the Dog Days of August everyone.  Although this is definitely a Republican year (at least for the House of Representatives,) Republicans may be picking up less seats in the Senate than they hoped. In my opinion, the chance of the Republicans picking up the Senate is an absolute no no. It is not because they will not steal ten seats from the Democrats, it is because Democrats may obtain some seats previously held by Republicans. The rhetoric this year is anti incumbent. For some places though, it is just anti Democratic Party (or Democrat party as conservatives will say.) For example, Delaware is looking to elect Michael Castle (R) who has served as Governor and U.S House Representative in Delaware for a very long time.

Also, Republicans are losing chances for pickups due to strong Democratic candidates or Republican candidate imploding. Nevada is the most famous example with Sharron Angle. First she thought we should get rid of social security and the Department of Education. She will not stop making gaffes either. She said she will only take questions from people who like her. Even on Fox News, she faced some trouble answering their questions. Another example of Republicans falling into problems is the Colorado Senate race. Ken Buck (R) has gone to the right to beat Jane Norton (R) as he says women do not have the right to an abortion even in cases of rape and incest. In a state that rejected a measure by 46 points to “define life from the moment of conception,” these views should not play too well. Also, many of the Democratic candidates are good campaigners but have managed to close gaps or take leads because campaign season has not started yet. If you are looking for a race where a Democrat has a shot at making it close due to campaign skills, look at races like Indiana or Delaware. I expect Republicans to win those races but if the Democrats make them close, do not be surprised. Unfortunately though, this may change as Obama’s approval ratings seem to be slipping. This could affect the Senate races and this is a pretty optimistic diary, I am aware of that.

Now off to the rankings:

1. North Dakota OPEN Byron Dorgan (D)

North Dakota is known for electing candidates who are well known to voters like Democrats Kent Conrad, Earl Pomeroy and Byron Dorgan. Apparently, this applies even more strongly to Republican Governors who are named John Hoeven who are running for Senate in 2010.

Ranking: Safe Republican

2. Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D)

Blanche Lincoln held off the unions (which were never powerful in Arkansas,) the progressives and Bill Halter (D) when she won the Democratic primary with the help of Bill Clinton. Rep John Boozmen (R) from the northwest portion of the state (where Wal Mart was started) is running. All indications clearly show that Boozmen is ahead by double digits. Barring a major gaffe or a big burst of luck, Boozmen will be Arkansas’s next Senator.

Ranking: Likely Republican

3. Florida OPEN George LeMieux (R)

Mel Martinez (R) resigned so then popular Governor Charlie Crist (R) appointed LeMieux to hold Martinez’s Senate seat. Now Crist wants the seat so he ran for it. Unfortunately, he learned that saying something positive about Obama’s stimulus is suicide for a Republican stimulus. Marco Rubio (R) ran as the teabagger and kicked Crist out of the primary. At the beginning of the race though, a poll showed Rubio down by 53 points. Now Crist is running as an independent and most polls show him ahead of Rubio by the mid single digits. The Democratic primary is a big circus too. Kendrick Meek (D) from Miami is running against Jeff Greene, a corrupt billionaire. As Meek’s chance of winning shrinks, many Democrats like me are switching to Crist because he may decide to caucus with the Democrats. The race might get closer but expect Crist to win.

Ranking: Lean Independent

4. Delaware OPEN Ted Kaufman (D)

At first, this seat looked like an easy hold for the Democrats. Beau Biden, Joe Biden’s son would run and that would be that. When popular Rep. Michael Castle (R) decided to run, Beau Biden decided not to. Now Democrats nominated New Castle County (Wilmington) executive, Chris Coons (D) to run for Senate. It should be noted that New Castle County is a bellwether in Presidential so Coons already has an advantage. Michael Castle though is a moderate and is well known throughout the state but if people get fed up with all the incumbents…Still, expect a Michael Castle win.

Ranking: Lean Republican

5. Indiana OPEN Evan Bayh (D)

Bye Bayh, after being a popular Governor and Senator, Bayh left open a seat the Democrats should have held. Dan Coats (R) is a former Republican Senator and lobbyist who won the primary with only 40% of the vote. He faces Brad Ellsworth (D), the moderate and popular Congressman from southern Indiana, filled with rural swing voters. Although Ellsworth is moderate and should do well with rural voters, Dan Coats has a strong lead. Ellsworth just got out an effective ad attacking lobbyists (not explicitly mentioning the one running against him.) This is helpful but he also needs to appeal to urban voters who were key to Obama’s winning coalition in 2008. If Ellsworth does not start closing the gap in September when voters get to know him, then he is toast.

Ranking: Lean Republican

6. Ohio OPEN George Voinovich (R)

Voinovich is another reasonable Republican who is retiring. After a bruising primary against Jennifer Brunner (D), Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (D) won. He is facing Rob Portman (R) who is a former congressman and official during the Bush Administration. Almost every poll since March that is not Rasmussen shows Fisher with a lead although most of the leads are by a few points. Fisher’s main jobs will be to tie Portman to Bush, remind people how bad Bush was (because everyone is blaming Bush’s problems on Obama) and Fisher should highlight how he will create jobs. Also, Fisher needs to step up the fundraising. Also, Portman is from southern Ohio while Fisher is from Northeast Ohio. In many races, I believe it will get better once the Democrat starts campaigning. In this race though, Portman will be able to spend his money but the unions will be able to help Fisher due to their power here. On election night, you should expect a map similar to 2004 except Fisher may get a few Ohio river counties. I still believe that if one race leads to a recount, it will be this one.

Ranking: Toss Up

7. Pennsylvania OPEN Arlen Specter (D)

This race is another shape shifter that finally seems to have settled. First, Specter was a Republican who would face a primary against closeted conservative Pat Toomey (R) from Allentown. Specter switched parties and got another primary challenge, this time from Joe Sestak (D) from Delaware County. Specter lost the primary and gave a not so stirring concession speech. Sestak however was excited and energetic in his speech. He should be able to transfer that energy into the general election campaign. The issue is that Toomey is running to the center so he does not get Santorumed for being too conservative. Being more of an economic conservative, Toomey should have a shot at picking up suburban Philadelphia voters which Democrats must have to win in Pennsylvania. There is just one little problem: Sestak’s base is in suburban Philadelphia. This is one of those races that will be very close and to win, Sestak must hold on to the suburbs.

Ranking: Toss Up

8. Colorado Michael Bennett (D)

Bennett is facing a tough primary from the not so stellar fundraiser Andrew Romanoff (D). At first, I thought this was a race the Republicans would eventually win. Then like Virginia 2006, Montana 2006 and Nevada 2010, the Republicans made some mistakes. Ken Buck (R) is facing Jane Norton (R) in the primary. He called birthers (in case you do not know, birthers are people who believe Obama was not born in this country even if a newspaper announces Obama’s birth in Honolulu, Hawaii when Obama was born) dumba*ses which should play well in the general election (but not in the primary.) Also, the Governor’s race has imploded for the Republicans too. Tom Tancredo (R) is running as an Independent because Scott McInnis (R) plagiarized and this should split the Republican vote. The implosion may spread to the Senate race too so stand by for further developments.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

9. Missouri OPEN Christopher Bond (R)

In a year like 2006 or 2008, this seat would be an easy pickup for the Democrats. Even in a neutral year, the Democrats would probably win this seat. The Democrats nominated Robin Carnahan (D), Missouri’s Secretary of State who won by 26 points in 2008 (she also received the largest number of votes for a candidate in Missouri history.) She did well in rural areas in that election and she has rural roots. If a Democrat wants to win in Missouri, he/she must keep down Republican margins in rural areas so urban areas allow Democrats to pull through in Missouri. Also, Carnahan is a good campaigner so it appears she is the best candidate the Democrats can find. She is the best candidate but the Republicans nominated Roy Blunt from conservative southwest Missouri. Yes, the Roy Blunt who was the Majority Whip during the Bush Administration. Most polls though show Blunt leading by a few points and this is probably because of Missouri’s conservative trend. Even Obama did not win the state while winning big in the St. Louis area and doing well near Kansas City too. Also, the recent statewide primary showed high Republican turnout and low Democratic turnout. Although Carnahan should make the race closer once she starts campaigning, this race looks more and more like a Republican hold.

Ranking: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

10. Kentucky OPEN Jim Bunning (R)

I considered taking this race off the list but I have decided to keep it here because the race could shift toward the Democrats quickly (although this seems less and less likely.) After winning a bruising primary against Daniel Mongirado (D), progressive Jack Conway (D) hopes to beat Rand Paul (R) who soundly beat the establishment’s favorite Trey Grayson (R). At first, Paul resembled a gaffe machine by saying he hopes to repeal part of the Civil Rights Act. Kentucky is a conservative state (Obama only won 41% of the vote here) but even here, Conway has been able to make the race close. Paul however has zipped his lips and is not making anymore gaffes. Conway is a strong candidate but he seems to have difficulties winning in the eastern Kentucky coal counties. For a Democrat to win in Kentucky, he/she must do extremely well in eastern Kentucky and carry the 5th Congressional district to offset Republican margins in western Kentucky. Overall, this appears to be just the wrong year for Conway. If Rand Paul makes a few more gaffes though…

Ranking: Lean Republican

Overall, expect Republicans to pick up 3-5 seats in the Senate.  

Though the Delaware Senate race is not lost yet for Democrats, the main issue right now is finding a replacement candidate to fill the hole left by the guy who most considered likely to run (until recent weeks), Beau Biden.

Incumbent Sen. Ted Kaufman says he won’t seek a full term, and Lt. Gov. Matt Denn, a rising star in the local party, has decided to stay put (he’s been in that office for only a year).

The biggest fish left in the pond appears to be New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, who says he’s he’s seriously considering it:

One early name mentioned as a possible Democratic challenger to Castle is New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, who represents a majority of the state’s population. Coons told POLITICO Monday he is “seriously considering” a bid.

“I’ve received several calls from community leaders and friends encouraging me to run for the open seat for United States Senate,” he said. “I am seriously considering running for the open seat. I need some time to meet with my family and those close to me. I expect to make a decision in the next few days.”

Coons trailed Castle by 51-39 in the latest poll of this race, but he’d at least stand a fighting chance if he could mount a competent campaign. Remember, for all Castle’s strength, he is still a pretty old guy in the sunset of his electoral career — Coons, in his ’40s, will at least have that contrast in his favor.

UPDATE: Ex-Lt. Gov. John Carney, currently running for Castle’s open seat in the House, won’t switch races, either.

RaceTracker: DE-Sen

This just about confirms our worst fears:

Our conversation ended with a surprising request from the vice president as he hurried off to a national security meeting. Spontaneously, he turned to the possible Delaware senatorial campaign of his son Beau.

Biden: “If you run into Beau, talk him into running; he respects you.”

Me: “I don’t think he wants to run, though.”

Biden: “I don’t think he does either. I know he doesn’t want to. … I’m so proud of the job he’s done [as attorney general].”

It’s kind of amazing that, without Beau, Democrats don’t really have anyone on the bench in this solid-blue state who wouldn’t start off as an underdog against Mike Castle. This is a very disturbing development, indeed.

UPDATE (David): Sheesh – this is bush league:

But a transcript provided by the VP’s office makes it clear that Biden was talking about current senator Ted Kauffman.

VP to Harry Themal:  Always a pleasure of seeing you buddy.  Talk Ted into running, if Beau doesn’t.   Talk him into running – he respects you.  I wish I had the power of appointing Senators.  I’d appoint him from Maryland if he wouldn’t do Delaware.

Harry Themal: “I don’t think he wants to run, though.”

VP:  No I don’t think he does either. I know he doesn’t.  I’m so proud of the job he’s done.  God.

I’m still skeptical as to whether Beau Biden will run, but man, this was a serious flub on the part of the News Journal. And even though they’ve added a correction to the article, their front page still has the wrong headline. They should have posted the entire raw transcript online in the first place – that should be standard operating procedure for all media outfits.

Note: The original title of this piece was “Joe Biden Says Beau Not Interested in Running.”

RaceTracker Wiki: DE-Sen

• CT-Sen: You know you’re in trouble when the trade publications that cover you start asking what your exit strategy is. CQ has an interesting piece that delves into the how, when, and where of how Chris Dodd might excuse himself from his not-getting-any-better Senate race, and it also asks who might take his place.

• DE-Sen: CQ has another speculative piece about another troublesome seat for Dems: what happens if Beau Biden doesn’t show up for his planned Senate race (he’s been mum so far, although most people expect him to run). The uncomfortable truth is there just isn’t much of a Plan B there, but options could include New Castle County Exec Chris Coons, or elbow-twisting Ted Kaufman to actually stand for re-election.

• CO-Gov: Considering how deep a hole Michael Bennet was in vis-a-vis Jane Norton, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Rasmussen’s gubernatorial numbers from last week’s Colorado sample aren’t very appetizing either. Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis leads incumbent Dem Bill Ritter 48-40, despite Ritter having 50% approval. (The thing is, he also has 50% disapproval. Rasmussen still managed to find 1% of all likely voters who don’t know. Which, of course, adds up to 101%.)

• HI-01: Rep. Neil Abercrombie is saying he’ll resign in a matter of weeks, not months. He still wouldn’t give a specific date, citing the uncertainty of timing of major votes coming up in the short term (not just health care reform, but also the locally-important Native Hawaiian recognition act).

• IA-03: Another Republican is getting into the field against Rep. Leonard Boswell, who’s never quite gotten secure in this swing district. Retired architect Mark Rees will join state Sen. Brad Zaun and former wrestling coach Jim Gibbons in the GOP primary; Rees seems to be striking a lot of moderate notes, in contrast to the rest of the field.

• IL-10: With state Rep. Julie Hamos having gotten the AFSCME’s endorsement yesterday, her Democratic primary opponent, Dan Seals, got his own big labor endorsement today, from the Illinois Federation of Teachers.

• MS-01: Despite having a painstakingly-cleared field for him, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee is still getting a primary challenge, apparently from the anti-establishment right. Henry Ross, the former mayor of Eupora, made his campaign official. Eupora, however, is tiny, and nowhere near the Memphis suburbs; remember that Tupelo-vs.-the-burbs was the main geographical fissure in the hotly contested and destructive GOP primary last year that paved the way for Democratic Rep. Travis Childers to win.

• NJ-03: Here’s another place where the Republican establishment got hosed by a primary-gone-bad last year, and where they’d like to avoid one next year: New Jersey’s 3rd. This is one where the county party chairs have a lot of sway, and candidates aren’t likely to run without county-level backing. Burlington County’s chair William Layton is already backing NFL player Jon Runyan, so the real question is what happens in Ocean County. Other possible GOP candidates include Toms River councilman Maurice Hill, assistant US Attorney David Leibowitz, Assemblyman Scott Rudder, and state Sen. Chris Connors.

• NY-19: Another report looks at the discontent brewing in the 19th, where Assemblyman Greg Ball bailed out, leaving wealthy moderate ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth in command of the GOP field. Much of the discontent seems to be less teabagger agita and more about a personal dispute between the Orange Co. GOP chair and Hayworth’s campaign advisor, but there are also concerns that Hayworth’s country-club positioning won’t work well in the blue-collar counties further upstream from her Westchester County base. Alternative challengers being floated include Tuxedo Park former mayor David McFadden and Wall Street guy Neil DiCarlo, as well as state Sen. Vincent Leibell, who may be unethused about running a GOP primary to hold his Senate seat against Ball and looking for something else to do.

• TN-06: The newly-open 6th may not be as much of a lost cause as everyone thinks; despite its dwindling presidential numbers, Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen won the district in both 2002 (with 52%) and 2006 (with 67%). The article also names some other Republicans who might show up for the race, besides state Sen. Jim Tracy and former Rutherford Co. GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik (both already in): businessman Kerry Roberts, state Sen. Diane Black, Army Reserve Maj. Gen. Dave Evans, and real estate agent Gary Mann. One other Dem not previously mentioned is former state Sen. Jo Ann Graves.

• TX-17: Although they didn’t get the state Senator they wanted, Republicans seem pleased to have lined up a rich guy who can pay his own way against Rep. Chet Edwards: businessman Bill Flores. Flores has also made a name as a big contributor to his alma mater Texas A&M, a big presence in the district. 2008 loser Rob Curnock also remains in the GOP field.

• WA-03: Lots happening in the 3rd. One official entry is no surprise, given what we’d already heard this week: young Republican state Rep. Jaime Herrera is in. On the Dem side, as I expected, state Sen. Craig Pridemore is telling people he’s in, although hasn’t formalized anything. (H/t conspiracy.) Pridemore, who’s from central Vancouver, is probably one or two clicks to the left of state Rep. Deb Wallace (who’s already running), as befits his safer district; in recent years, he’d been the recipient of lots of arm-twisting from local activists eager to find someone to primary the increasingly uncooperative Brian Baird. Speaking of local activists, someone named Maria Rodriguez-Salazar also plans to run; she sounds like she’s on the moderate side of the Dem equation, though. Finally, for the GOPers, there have been persistent rumors that conservative radio talk show host Lars Larson is interested, although he may have debunked that.

• WV-01: Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan is already facing state Sen. Clark Barnes (whose district has little overlap with the 1st), but that’s not stopping other GOP entrants: today, it’s Mac Warner, a lawyer and former West Point grad.

• DCCC: The DCCC is playing some offense against vulnerable GOP House members, with radio spots in five districts: Charlie Dent, Dan Lungren, Mary Bono Mack, Lee Terry, and Joe Wilson. The ad attacks the GOPers for voting for TARP last year but then voting against financial services reform now. The DCCC is being coy about the actual cost of the ad buy, though, suggesting it’s more about media coverage of the ads than the actual eyeballs.

• House: Bob Benenson has a lengthy piece looking at House retirements, finding that the pace really isn’t that much different from previous years, and talking to a variety of Dems who can’t decide whether or not it’s time to panic. The article suggests a few other possible retirees, some of whom shouldn’t be seen as a surprise (John Spratt, Ike Skelton) and a few more that seem pretty improbable (Baron Hill?).

• NRSC: The NRSC is doing what is can to shield its hand-picked establishment candidates from the wrath of the teabaggers, often by denying their transparent efforts to help them fundraise. Here’s one more example of how the NRSC isn’t doing so well at hiding those ties, though: they’ve set up joint fundraising accounts for some of their faves, including Kelly Ayotte, Trey Grayson, Carly Fiorina, and Sue Lowden, which is sure to fan more teabagger flames.

• AK-Legislature: Alaska’s tiny legislature (20 Senators and 40 Reps.) is looking to grow (to 24 and 48), hopefully before the next redistricting. As you can imagine, the small number of seats leaves many districts extremely large, geographically, and also stitching together many disparate communities of interest.

• Redistricting: I know everyone here likes to play redistricting on their computers, but for Californians, here’s an actual chance to get your hands on the wheel! California’s new redistricting commission is soliciting applications from members of the public to become members. Anyone who has worked for a politician or been on a party’s central committee is excluded, but there are seats for 5 Democrats and 4 “others” (including decline to state), so there are lots of slots that need progressives to fill them.

• Polltopia: PPP wants your input yet again. Where to next? Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, or Massachusetts? (Although it looks like the poll has already been overwhelmingly freeped in favor of Kentucky by Rand Paul supporters…)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/12-14, likely voters).

DE-Sen:

Beau Biden (D): 45

Mike Castle (R): 46

Undecided: 9

Ted Kaufman (D): 37

Mike Castle (R): 51

Undecided: 12

John Carney (D): 41

Mike Castle (R): 49

Undecided: 10

Chris Coons (D): 39

Mike Castle (R): 51

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4%)

DE-AL:

John Carney (D): 44

Charlie Copeland (R): 21

Undecided: 35

John Carney (D): 45

Greg Lavelle (R): 18

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±4%)

Conventional wisdom among legacy media pundits, once Rep. Mike Castle somewhat unexpectedly got into the Senate race, was that the race had suddenly shot past tossup status into Republican leaning territory. Today’s first R2K poll of the race should dispel that notion: AG Beau Biden is fully competitive with Castle, trailing him by only 1, and matching the popular Castle on favorables (65/29 for Biden, 64/30 for Castle). And that’s before any gloves have come off (for instance, the DSCC bringing its weight, and the presence of a certain vice-presidential dad, to bear). If there’s any doubt, consider the case of Bill Roth‘s 2000 election, as an indication of what happens when popular but tired and aging Delaware icons who’ve never really been tested, and who’ve slowly gotten out of touch with a gradually bluening state, run up against a vigorous opponent.

There’s one question remaining, though: is Biden actually going to run? Having recently returned from Iraq, Biden hasn’t said much on the matter yet, leaving some worried that the entry of Castle into the race might deter him. In the event that he doesn’t, R2K polled some other possibilities (including caretaker Sen. Ted Kaufman staying on, former Lt. Gov. (and 2008 gubernatorial primary loser) John Carney switching from the House race, or New Castle County Exec Chris Coons getting in), and the results aren’t as good. There’s some good news on that front today, though: Biden is “absolutely” considering running for the Senate, according to ABC News. Biden will be making the decision “in due course,” after the requisite family conference.

R2K also looks at the House race in the wake of Castle’s vacating the seat, which is quickly shaping up to be one of the Dems’ likeliest pickups in 2010. With the Democratic establishment firmly behind Carney, the GOP is just starting to cast its net. The top target is probably former state Sen. and former Lt. Gov. candidate Charlie Copeland, but other possibilities include state Reps. Tom Kovach and Greg Lavelle, businessmen Robert Harra and Anthony Wedo, and possibly former US Attorney Colm Connolly. In the end, which Republican takes the plunge may not matter much, as R2K finds Carney doubling-up on either Copeland or Lavelle.

RaceTracker: DE-Sen | DE-AL

Per Rollcall: Minner says she’ll appoint former Biden aide Ted Kaufman to fill the rest of Biden’s term.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/3…

All at once now…”Who the hell is Ted Kaufman?”

Smells like a placeholder for Beau, no matter what Beau has said previously.  And it would seem this move would open the door for  a Castle candidacy if he is so inclined.

At a minimum this adds an element of uncertainty to a seat we should hopefully have been able to take for granted.